Socialists surge ahead in France -- a runoff is ahead!

The mark was structurally stronger enjoying the benefits of a unified state backing it and a fiscal union (the state of Germany) .

The euro does not enjoy the benefits of a fiscal union and the political union is a relatively new and untested creation.

 

Mmm... if that is so, then why does Eurostar makes advertisments with the slogan: "Het Pond Staat Laag. Koop Londen."

 

The Deutsche Mark

 

I'm just going by valuation trends over the last few years. Most currencies took a hit from the crisis, but the pound seemed to take less of one than the Euro or the dollar.

 

K back with link.

http://www.bized.co.uk/virtual/bank/economics/markets/foreign/theories1.htm

The german economy benefits because the demand for its currency is not solely decided by the external demand for German money and the external supplyof german money but because it is decided by the aggregate demand for euros versus the aggregate supply of euro.

 

So, in effect, Germany wants to preserve its trade surplus. That's a smart move, and we've tried reaching one -- although we've been very unsuccessful at it so far.

 

Going back to the OP, I think the conclusion that the Socialist candidate will be chosen as President in the run-off is premature. There was quite a higher percentage of hard right voters who lost their candidates than hard left voters who lost theirs, so if the turnout doesn't change Sarkozy still has a good chance (Le Pen's lot aren't going to vote for the Socialists).
It won't exactly give Sarkozy much of a mandate if he scrapes back into office, though.

 

Would that be because the run-off hasn't taken place yet or are you working from some criteria that nobody else is party to ?

 

But a poll indicated that less than half of Le Pen supporters are willing to vote for Sarkozy in the second round and those voted for the lest of the left-leaning presidential candidates are more likely to vote for Hollande. Around 30% of Le Pen supporters would vote for Hollande according the same poll because her platform is somewhat socialist, attracting working-class voters and it would be hard for Sarkozy to win them over completely only by his call for more immigration controls.

 

On the other hand, how long could the Euro last even if there is no large scale debt repudiation? Each country is pulling to impose their own economic policies. That's the fatal flaw in the Euro.

I give it till 2020.

 

If they repudiate their debts they also cut off their credit and kill the EU...Germany alone will not keep the spenders above water.

 

Well this is one American who will be grateful when Greece and some of the other slowly failing debt nations go commie. Back in the good old days of the cold war, the "West" as it was then defined, had no real economic competition from the Iron Curtain countries since they mostly built crap. With no Soviet Union and International communism to speak of, removing some of these wrecked countries off of the capitalist board and on to the socialist one will lock up whatever national advantages and brainpower those counties have. They can have ideology, and the remaining Western capitalist states can have high standards of living.

 

What 'high living' will there be if european nations are allowed to fail and also usa states who can't pay the bills. The 'west' have to bail them out, which cost more than trying to fix the problems now.

This short sighted view of political childish fighting is more harm than good. Long term planning is the key.

 

Hey, I'm on your side. European nations failing will open the door to socialism in all of those failing states that couldn't make it as adult modern nation states. They need socialism because they've indebted themselves beyond the ability to be bailed out. Europe could afford to bail out Greece, for a while, but they can't afford to bail out Greece, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, and who knows, France?

I'm taking the long term view. The short term is trying to bail out countries that are not politically capable of making the necessary reforms themselves. That is spending billions to buy just a little time. After they repudiate their debt, there will be plenty of countries to experiment on making socialist utopias with, so you should be happy with that.

 

You don't seem to understand european political policies for the Eu in specific eu nations.

This 'socialism' view seems to be delivered by trolling americans or americans willfully ignorant on these matters.

I see this more often on this forum. The americans lack any real education or specific knoweldge to europe, they just type loudly 'socialism'

It is sad really, how the usa is failing.

 

Actually you didn't understand the intent of my post. You saw the word "socialism" and just blended it in with how others use it without reading it in the context of my post.

I've noticed more and more the inability of Europeans to be able to read comments in context and instead just rely on catching a few keywords, and then replying with stock answers, no thought required. It's sad really.

 

The problem is this.

The word 'socialism' has turned on this forum at least into a sound bite without proper explanation. Many use it, instead of pushing themselves to explain deeper comments.

If i meant offence i apologise.

Although as you put it. From the european perspective. The american use of 'socialism' is what i written above. Very weak and shallow unless something deeper is proposed.

 

This rise of the 'left' happened in Germany too. A fight between 'socialists' and 'nationalists' (a mind game, because both wings/flanks are deception)
If in the end the 'nationalists' ('right') win, reach absolute majority, the situation in France has become the same as in Germany 1938 (empire nearing) If the 'socialists' keep rising they cause a Russian situation (which means empire as well) And if they find out this is repeat of German history happening they will propbably vote for the third candidate/party, and this one will reach that absolute majority again. In all ways the French can end up in the same situation as the German people (and this same political process is going on in other European countries, three candidates or three large parties, in the USA the same, three presidential candidates left) Why three, because if two fail one is left (safety net)