Pinched and Griping in Iran

The serious sanctions don't begin until July 1... At this point Iran is storing more than 23 million barrels of oil that they can't sell.... Half their tanker fleet is parked.

Talks in Moscow will attempt to get Iran to stop uclear enrichment at 20%..

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/17/o...nd-griping-in-iran.html?_r=1&pagewanted=print

June 16, 2012


Pinched and Griping in Iran

By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF


TEHRAN

BEFORE beginning my road trip across Iran, I stopped at a shopping mall for computer equipment in Tehran. It was brimming with iPads and iPhones — not to mention a statuette of Steve Jobs in a store window — and one shop owner smirked condescendingly at my laptop.

“You have a very, very old computer!” he scoffed. “Is this older than I am?”

The encounter was a reminder that Iran is a relatively rich and sophisticated country, more so than most of its neighbors. Yet one lesson from my 1,700-mile drive around the country is that, largely because of Western sanctions, factories are closing, workers are losing their jobs, trade is faltering and prices are surging. This is devastating to the average Iranian’s pocketbook — and pride.

To be blunt, sanctions are succeeding as intended: They are inflicting prodigious economic pain on Iranians and are generating discontent.

One factory owner, Hassan Gambari, who makes electrical panels, told me that he had had to lay off 12 of his 15 workers. Another, Masoud Fatemi, who makes cotton thread and textiles, said that Western sanctions had aggravated pre-existing economic problems.

“Prices have gone ridiculously high, so production is almost impossible,” he said. “Everything has become harder, more time-consuming and more expensive because of the sanctions.”

Fatemi said that an electrical inverter blew out a year and a half ago, closing one of his factory lines and costing him $500 a day. Because of sanctions, he said, he has been unable to get a replacement from the West, although he hopes to install one soon from South Korea.

In Tabriz, in the west, I chatted with the owner of a store selling Nike, Adidas and Saucony sneakers, hugely prized as status symbols. If a young man wants to find a girlfriend, the shop owner explained, the best bet is to wear Nikes.

But sales have dropped by two-thirds in the last year, he fretted. He added in disgust that some Iranians are in such penury that they attend parties wearing Chinese-made, fake Nikes.

In March, Iran was pushed out of Swift, a banking network for international payments, so the businessman now pays for his imports through the traditional hawala system. That’s an unofficial global network of money-traders. You lug a briefcase of cash to a hawala office in an Iranian bazaar and then ask for it to be made available in Beijing or Los Angeles. This is more expensive and less reliable than a bank transfer, but it’s now the main alternative.

“We are finding a loophole around sanctions,” a hawala trader told me. “The Iranian nation has no other option.”

Economic frustration is compounded because President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been lifting subsidies for everything from bread to gasoline — probably sound economic policy, but very unpopular.

Western sanctions have succeeded in another way: Most blame for economic distress is directed at Iran’s own leaders, and discontent appears to be growing with the entire political system. I continually ran into Iranians who were much angrier at their leaders on account of rising prices than on account of the imprisonment of dissidents or Bahais.

“We can’t do business as we used to, and our quality of life is getting worse,” one man, who lost his job as a salesman, said forlornly. “We blame our regime, not Western countries.”

Economic pressure also may be distracting people from other nationalist issues. For example, many ordinary Iranians side with their government on nuclear issues and are angry at assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists. But people are much more focused on lost jobs and soaring prices.

“The economy is breaking people’s backs,” a young woman told me in western Iran.

I regret this suffering, and let’s be clear that sanctions are hurting ordinary Iranians more than senior officials. I’m also appalled that the West blocks sales of airline parts, thus risking crashes of civilian aircraft.

Yet, with apologies to the many wonderful Iranians who showered me with hospitality, I favor sanctions because I don’t see any other way to pressure the regime on the nuclear issue or ease its grip on power. My takeaway is that sanctions are working pretty well.

This success makes talk of a military strike on Iranian nuclear sites unwise as well as irresponsible. Aside from the human toll, war would create a nationalist backlash that would cement this regime in place for years to come — just when economic sanctions are increasingly posing a challenge to its survival.

No one can predict the timing, but Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen have shown that unpopular regimes that cannot last, don’t.

“People putting bread on the table, bearing the pressure, they have a limit,” said a businessman I chatted with on a beach of the Caspian Sea. “Sooner or later, the limit will come and things will change.”

Insha’Allah. (God willing.)

 

Sanctions are working........

I know that some American politicians want to bomb Iran.. I don't think Obam does, but you may notice the things that Mitt Romney is saying.

Others believe the Israelis will establish a base in Western Afghanistan as a base for bombing Iranian facilities (all 22 targets)

My hope is that the people will overthrow the current regime themselves... That may be too optimistic since the iranian revolutionary guard seems to be more powerful than the army.

 

Fyi......................

 

I oppose sanctions as well as military action against Iran. Transparent diplomacy is the best route to discovering the truth about Iran's nuclear program, as well as dampening tensions between the the west and its allies, and Iran and its allies. Furthermore, openness towards the Ahmadinejad regime is the best way to incite internal rebellion in the nation. The United States has tools to engage in cyber warfare, and evolve the realm of economic warfare. Boots on the ground or planes in the air is not necessary.

 

This just illustrates that countries that are subject to economic warfare from the West ought to form their own ecomonic alliance and cut ties to the West.

They could make their own products and free themselves from sanctions.

 

Sanctions are by far the worst type of economic warfare. Look to China as a good example of use of 'soft power', economic warfare, so to speak. One never sees China imposing sanctions. Instead, they slowly but surely gain overbearing influence in the commerce of a nation through mutually, but not necessarily equally, beneficial relationships.

 

Third World countries should never allow Chinese to enter their countries. They are a lot more destructive than Westeners. For one thing they buy up all of the farmland. On the other hand, Third World countries should never allow Westener bankers to set foot in their countries. They steal them blind and keep them poor.

 

The entire nuclear issue is a front for undermining Iranian economic prosperity. With a raising middle class internal reform would likely lead to a more democratic and transparent Iran. The countries pushing the sanctions are not interested in reform they either want to significantly weaken Iran's position in the Middle East or they want a new regime that shares their interests. Iran shouldn't be considered a nuclear threat by anyone there is no evidence to prove those claims while in the same region there are already corrupt, and secretive regimes with nuclear weapons so why worry about conspiracy theories when there is actual conspiracy.

 

You must know that Iran has had gas rationing since 2007.....

Iran could be an economic powerhouse.. They are the natural route to move oil and gas from the Caspian region and the Stans to the Persian Gulf and on the Asia via Port Gwadar.

And they do need nuclear power plants to expand their electrical grid.

I don't know what the solution is... but I doubt it will be found with the current regime.

 

I agree that sanctions are having an effect and I also agree that the current rulers of Iran are not sincere in the nuclear negotiations. But I disagree that these negotiations in Moscow will take root and hold, I have little faith of the Russian rulers contributing to stability in the ME.

 

I hope that some good will come from the Moscow meeting, but EVERYONE and their uncle agrees with you.. that it will not produce results.

 

I understand, and you are right for keeping up the optimism.

 

IMO... the whole situation is like swimming for the drain.

The Iranian regime just p*sses off the GCC by mucking about in Northern Yemen and Bahrain.

They fund .. or maybe just support Hamas and Hezbollah while much of the Arab world wants the carnage to stop so they can press harder for a just peace.

And, the Iranian economy is suffering terribly..

Israel just isn't that important in the scheme of things..... especially when you look at a map of the oil corridor.

 

I dont think anything short of regime change will satisfy global status-quo interests. Left alone Iran would quickly become an economic powerhouse and would dominate the region... there is no-way in hell the U.S is going to allow that to happen. Even if sanctions did strong-arm the regime into ceasing all nuclear activities.. the best Iran could hope for under the Western yoke is limited and micromanaged success.

 

I used to go to Iran pretty frequently.... and I just don't see this as a problem with the Iranian people.

To me its the Shia extremism of the government and the power of the Revolutionaary Guard.

I don't think they need to be under any Western yoke.

 

I have many friends who are Iranian, many of which came to the United States when they were young. Iranian citizens are more eclectic in their way of life than people assume. In addition, many of them are quite westernized. The average Iranian is not a threat to the United States. The government is.

 

Eclectic is a good word for them.. Yes. I agree with you.

 

One of my Iranian friends is even attending Columbia University. So much for the notion of backwards individuals.

 

I don't know if its still true, but they used to have great medical schools in Iran.

 

IMO, Iran is the linchpin for Shia aspirations. The West has allied itself to the Sunnis in hopes of maintaining a beneficial status quo. Our foreign policy in the ME flows from this.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~`

It's a well know fact that most of the World's proven oil reserves can be found in the Middle East. The figure is about 70% and as the supply in the rest of the World dwindles over time, then this proportion is sure to increase. It is a less well known fact that even though Shiites make up only around 10 to 15% of all Muslims in the World, the proportion of Shiites compared to Sunnis in the Middle East is 36.5%. What's more these Shiites just happen to be located exactly where most of the Oil in the Middle East is to be found, i.e. in Southern Iraq, Iran and Eastern Saudi Arabia.

The revered historical figure of Imam Ali from whom the Shiites derive their name and reason for existence, is said to have instructed that on his death his body should be tied to a camel which is should then be left to wander. Where the Camel eventually stopped then that's where he wanted to be laid to rest. The Camel happened to stop roughly where most of the World's Oil is and over centuries Shiite communities formed and grew around this general geographical locale. Fast forward 13 hundred years and we have a current situation where Shiites are either the most numerous and/or dominant in those areas of the Middle East where the main Oil reserves are located.

http://www.iawwai.com/ShiiteSuperStateAmerica'sWorstNightmare.html

 

You know people's diversity and at the same time being the same is interesting!
The colorful sentence you said is the exact sentence we Iranians say: "The average American is not a threat to Iran. The government is" but we don't say a threat we usually say the people of the united states are respected good people but not the government. But I don't know what the media makes during election campaigns! Media is a wizard which makes the great people's ballots for capitalists' candidates.

 

Brilliant .
All three of them to have a peaceful demonstration at the UN .
NATO will shake , particularly if they start waving flowers and white sheets .
A fiendish strategy .

 

You know people all around the world are the same in humanity. Imagine somebody say, "there is no-way in hell the U.S is going to allow" for you. You like it? or the other big point: "the best Iran could hope... under Western yoke... limited and micromanaged success"
Most respectfully I suggest you, my friend, refer to Iran's new records after we got rid of westernized monachs.
I am not among the people who like to exagerate things or show off. You and Woogs think we are proud of what God granted: carbohydrate sources, copper, uranium, and probably graviton?. Yes we are but it is not all this we are proud of the first rank of scientific growth too.
My friends God knows the West's consern is not for the nuclear progress while having signed all those NPT committments and observing all peacefull scientific and medical nuclear activities with all those cameras every where. You think it is all about nuclear progress?

 

The more such countries interact with the West the more they are subject to being attacked. There's no reason why they can't or shouldn't form their own economic and trading alliance. While they would never become a superpower they could do very nicely trading among themselves.

 

Morgot!
I think 23MBs is not something significant for Iran with about 1, 2 million barrels export each day and more than 3 million BPD production. And now Iran manufactures oil-resulted productions herself.

“Yet one lesson from my 1,700-mile drive around the country is that, largely because of Western sanctions, factories are closing …..”
Rationally I cannot believe it since China is considered the main exporting country for the factories. Many experts mention sanctions grow on the country. My point is that the reporter with an easy driving around the country couldn’t get all the economic realities. There are three different categories of the companies that changed after the sanctions. Although some companies importing from the west lost, but the majority of the cargoes which are from the east did not change and the companies that rely on the national resources won.
To be realistic, yes! Sanctions work for the few years and when the rate of employment and national businesses rises rapidly because of the sanctions there would be an independent better labor market. Because of the vast variety of different lands and the vast natural resources any important problem caused by the sanctions is not probable significantly. Explaining the powerful nation which has not only oil, but also natural gas, copper, nuts, date, geographical unique strategic places in north and south, Abr jungle, the most durable kingdom in Achaemenian dynasty, Takht-i Jamshid, the only probable graviton site, Persian carpet, cinematography, and also one of the greatest scientific growths in the world (#1 the last year) needs another thread to talk. Sincerely you my friend, as a free impartial observer, think all the talks are for nuclear doubts? They are afraid of nanotechnology and some other basic researches too. Of course because of that chip media the government runs out there in front of all those sophisticated systems that Capitalism does, everybody thinks we have bombing plans. The secret services here are not like CIA or Mussed. A plan is here, is on the international antenna. If a thought is in doubt you bet there is nothing except propaganda.

“Economic frustration is compounded because President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been lifting subsidies for everything from bread to gasoline — probably sound economic policy, but very unpopular.”
The economic policy this reporter partially mentioned is planned in favor of disadvantaged people in this manner that removing the subsidies and spread its money equally among people. Because previously the richer the family was, the more subsidies they could get (because of the better buying power) but now the money is almost equally spread. (If it is not well understood please just let me know to explain more)

“Yet, with apologies to the many wonderful Iranians who showered me with hospitality, I favor sanctions because I don’t see any other way to pressure the regime on the nuclear issue or ease its grip on power.”
“Pressure the regime” terminology shows that the writer has a preview with favoritism of a theory before. However he first said although the people have points on the difficulty of bearing expensive products caused by the sanctions, but people are in agreement with their government on Nuclear Rights. Now he says, “I favor sanction because I don’t see any other way to pressure the regime on the nuclear issue.” It means that he is against the people – a simple logic.

“No one can predict the timing, but Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen have shown that unpopular regimes that cannot last, don’t.”
Yes, those were among the regimes that supported cruel actions against modest Palestinian poor people. Thank God! And the people who were in favor of Iran’s policy to help poor under-cruelty people won the day. Let give them a hand to survive in their difficulties and let them make their own new country without foreign interfering.
Yours,
ata