Gallup shock: Romney up 52-45% among early voters

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by Calminian, Oct 30, 2012.

  1. Calminian

    Calminian New Member

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    Just digging up this story myself. Not sure what to make of it yet. I do know that David Axelrod said promoting early voting was their primary gameplan in defeating Romney. Looks like that may not be turning out out too well.

    Not sure I'm very fond of early voting, but this is certainly good news for Romney.

    **GALLUP SHOCK** ROMNEY UP 52-45% AMONG EARLY VOTERS

    Very early on, before this campaign started in earnest, live or die, I publicly cast my lot with Gallup and Rasmussen. As a poll addict going back to 2000, these are the outlets that have always played it straight. It's got nothing to do with politics and everything to do with credibility and not wanting to kid myself. So when an outlet like Gallup tells me Romney is up seven-points, 52-45%, among those who have already voted, that's very big news.

    Just as Gallup did with their bombshell survey showing that 2012 is looking like a year where Republicans will enjoy a record three-point turnout advantage over Democrats (a ten-point shift from 2008), for whatever reason, they buried the lede with this latest bombshell, as well. When you consider the fact that the CorruptMedia's been talking for weeks about how Obama's crushing Romney in early voting, you would think Gallup proving that Narrative a big fat phony lie would be news. Instead, though, they bury this explosive news at the bottom of a piece headlined: "In U.S., 15% of Registered Voters Have Already Cast Ballots".

    Sounds like a nothing story, right?

    Except waaaaay at the bottom we learn this:

    Thus far, early voters do not seem to be swaying the election toward either candidate.

    Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney's 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup's Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.​

    When Gallup says early voters don’t seem to be swaying the election, presumably what they means is that because Romney is ahead by five points nationally, an early voting advantage of seven-points isn't going to "sway the election."

    Romney's early voting lead in Gallup may not jive with the CorruptMedia narrative, but it does with actual early vote totals that have been released and show Romney's early vote totals either beating Obama in swing states such as Colorado and Florida or chipping away at the President's advantage in the others. For example, here's what we know about Ohio's early voting numbers, thus far:

    But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.​

    Something else in this Gallup survey also helps shed some light on what we're seeing in these sometimes counter-intuitive state polls. As the headline states, Gallup is showing that only 15% of the public has already voted. Moreover, they've broken down early voting by region and show that in the Midwest only 13% of voters have already voted. And yet, many polls in places like Ohio show a much higher percentage of early voters, some as high as 30%, which you can bet skews the data. In other words, those polls can't be correct.

    Other than the fact that this is Gallup, another reason to embrace this poll is due to its very large sample size of 3,312 registered voters.​
     
  2. Object227

    Object227 Well-Known Member

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    Gosh darn it, you beat me to it. I was going to post this myself. Interesting. I've been led to believe Obama was winning with early voters. Ooops!
     
  3. Calminian

    Calminian New Member

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    LOL! Gotcha!

    Yeah, word had it that this was Obama's domain, and it would cancel out any gains Romney made from the debates. That's straight Axelrod. Video. Something very creepy about that guy.

    And check this out. INNER CITY BLACKS FLEEING OBAMA.
    [video]http://landing.newsinc.com/shared/video.html?freewheel=90085&sitesection=breitbart&VID=23861234[/video]
     
  4. pimptight

    pimptight Banned

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    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...-of-hurricane-sandy-on-election-is-uncertain/

    This is the only person's numbers I care about, and before the storm he had Obama at a 75% chance of winning.

    BTW, this is the author of 'The Signal and the Noise'.
     
  5. Grokmaster

    Grokmaster Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    This is the first stage of the effect I call the No Acorn Election Theft, or N.A.O.T. , which will prove FATAL to the Obamite Liespeak Re-election Campaign.
     
  6. Dispondent

    Dispondent Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    If true, that is significant, as everyone expected Obama to lead early voters, hard to say what it means at the moment, as in few hours some 'sources' will dispute it...
     
  7. Clint Torres

    Clint Torres New Member

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    I believe polls like I believe my left nut is talking to me.

    The only Polls I believe is the Polish dudes who I served in the military with.
     
  8. theunbubba

    theunbubba Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I was confronted with black flight from Obama at Lowes this evening. The definitely black lady at the register was talking to me and we got into how old we were. I said I was in the second grade when Kennedy was shot and she said yeah, maybe we'll get another president as good as him this fall.
    Then she said.."did I say that"?.....with a big grin.

    I said it before. He lost 25% of the black vote. He's toast.
     
  9. theunbubba

    theunbubba Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  10. yes/no

    yes/no New Member

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    That's profound. funny780.jpg
     
  11. Grokmaster

    Grokmaster Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Except that cast ballots are ACTUALLY COUNTED....
     
  12. one more clone

    one more clone Banned

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    its not a poll smartypants
     
  13. DonGlock26

    DonGlock26 New Member Past Donor

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    Yep, The hurricane is this week and the tsunami is next week.
     
  14. RichT2705

    RichT2705 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Bye bye Obama.
     
  15. Brewskier

    Brewskier Well-Known Member

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    Not a chance, I'm afraid. Obama's still the black Democrat. He'll get maybe a few percentage points less this time than last time. Still over 90% of the black vote. Count on it.
     
  16. jackdog

    jackdog Well-Known Member

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    but.... but...... but David Axelrod said Obama was leading early voting

    rofl 7%...this is really funny
     
  17. Foolardi

    Foolardi Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    We have valid number out now saying that in Ohio,early voting is not close.
    Republicans have a significant lead in Early voting.Yet just last night MSNBC
    and regular contributor * Joy-Ann Reid,said different.That Democrats are doing
    really well and have Got Out the Vote in Ohio,more so than Republicans.
    MSNBC has been pulling this stunt for the last week.Insisting on how Obama is
    doing well overall and Has Ohio solidly in his corner.

    * is a black journalist and was one of the biggest defenders of Trayvon Martin and
    abject haters of anything George Zimmerman.She flat-out is being used for
    negativity of all things Republcians,and as a smear agent.Making perfect sense as she
    was an 2008 Obama Campaign press aide.
    Reid and another contributor at MSNBC, Karen Finney { african-anerican ? } who is also
    being used to Race-bait.
    Finney accusing Republicans : " And I think they like him because they think he's a
    black man who knows his place. " on Herman Cain.
    Right there would have got her FIRED if a contributor at Fox.
     
  18. Foolardi

    Foolardi Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    These people { Axelrod } are such Bullcrapers.Axelrod even filed some lawsuit against
    Gallup back in March when they showed Romey ^ UP ^ for a brief period.
    There's no winning with these Chicago style propagandist.
     
  19. Foolardi

    Foolardi Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    But that won't stop them.The AP has a story out predicting that if Obama Loses
    it's because of White Racism.Rush Limbaugh gives his take on the story in his
    morning monologue.
    That before any Election Day votes are even cast,the narrative is set.
    Obama Lost because of rampant White Racism.
    Forget not that Obama WON last time around obviously due to White Guilt.
    Whatever.This Pseudo-psycho-political Mumbo jumbo.
     
  20. jackdog

    jackdog Well-Known Member

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    chuckle over at Politico the standard line of the progressives is that this does not mean anything it is only the old people and the red states that are voting early

    flashback to CNN this week where they were showing all the college kids being bussed in and riding their green friendly bicycles to the polls to vote early....hmmmmm
     
  21. Iron River

    Iron River Well-Known Member

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    The problem with the dem "get out the vote" bussing operation is that Republicans have their own transportation.

    I voted on the first day of early voting In Texas and then went to Oklahoma and voted early for my girl friend's husband. He is as far left as you can get but he can't keep up with things so he will look for his registration card for a few minutes and give up.
     
  22. Calminian

    Calminian New Member

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    LOL. Even the president is promoting early voting by doing it himself. That was their whole game plan and roadmap to victory. Now it's no big deal?

    BTW, this nugget was on Breitbart today, following the early voting revelation.

    GALLUP: OBAMA'S EARLY VOTE ADVANTAGE COLLAPSES 22-POINTS OVER 2008
    My pal Guy Benson found a juicy nugget that helps to bring more clarity to the news from Gallup yesterday that shows Romney leading Obama in the early vote by a full seven points, 52-45%. Almost exactly four years ago (October 28, 2008), according to Gallup, Obama was massacring John McCain among early voters with a fifteen-point lead, 55-40%. That means, at least according to Gallup, that Obama's early vote advantage has dropped 22 points when compared to '08.

    Turns out Obama was smashing McCain in early voting four year ago. Now we have a 22pt. switch. If this isn't an indicator, I don't know what is. Most early voters do so because there is a question mark as to whether they'll be able to on election day, and want to make sure they have a vote. This was true in my case.
     
  23. pimptight

    pimptight Banned

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    Yeah that idiot who predicted the Reps would do exactly what they did in the 2010 elections?
     
  24. sammy

    sammy Well-Known Member

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    15% of the vote is in and Romney is ahead by 7 pts, not bad since this early vote was supposed to favor Obama.
     
  25. Professor Peabody

    Professor Peabody Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Just look at jobs and the economy to see why Obama's going to lose in 7 days.
     

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