The 'Real' Unemployment Rate Is Still Really Lousy

Zxereus · Oct 9, 2012

Wish more people would understand just how bad it is under this president.

The 'Real' Unemployment Rate Is Still Really Lousy

If you have doubts about the official jobless rate, there's another rate you can check out instead--the "real" unemployment rate, which measures everybody considered unemployed plus a lot of others who are falling through the cracks.

The government calls this the "U-6" rate, and it has become a source of considerable intrigue lately. Some critics of President Obama contend that the government keeps the "real" rate a secret, because it reveals an economy that's in far worse shape than the official unemployment rate suggests. Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney says frequently that while the official unemployment rate may be improving, the real rate is still terrible. "If not for all the people who have simply dropped out of the labor force," Romney said in a recent statement, "the real unemployment rate would be closer to 11 percent."

It may be even higher than that, depending on how you count. The official unemployment rate fell in September from 8.1 percent to 7.8 percent, which is good news for Obama heading into the last few weeks before the November elections. The unemployment rate is now 2.1 percentage points below its 2009 peak, and at the same level as when Obama took office.

But Romney is correct to suggest that the official rate doesn't capture the depth of pain in the labor market. His rate, of nearly 11 percent, comes from an extrapolation involving the percentage of adults considered to be part of the labor force. But the government's own U-6 measure is even higher, at 14.7 percent. That's the percentage of adult Americans who are unemployed, underemployed, too discouraged to look for work or "marginally attached" to the labor force.
Click to expand...

MUCH MORE: http://news.yahoo.com/real-unemployment-rate-still-really-lousy-211815397.html

Zxereus · Oct 10, 2012

I like real world statistics, over the rose colored glasses ones.

waltky · Oct 19, 2012

Is unemployment gonna be the October surprise?

Unemployment benefit claims jump 46,000
October 18. 2012 WASHINGTON (AP) Weekly applications for U.S. unemployment benefits jumped 46,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 388,000, the highest in four months.

The increase represents a rebound from the previous week's sharp drop. Both swings were largely due to technical factors. The four-week average of applications, a less volatile measure, rose slightly to 365,500, the Labor Department said Thursday. That is still a level consistent with modest hiring. Last week, California reported a large drop in applications, pushing down the overall figure to the lowest since February 2008. This week, it reported a significant increase. The gyrations occurred because it processed applications last week that were delayed from the previous week. A department spokesman said the seasonally adjusted numbers "are being distorted ... by an issue of timing."

Applications are a proxy for layoffs. When they consistently fall below 375,000, it suggests hiring is healthy enough to lower the unemployment rate. Several economists simply calculated the average of the two distorted weeks, which is 365,000. That's in line with the recent trend. But it's modestly improved from September, suggesting that hiring could be a bit better this month. "Though still struggling, the U.S. labor market appears to be making headway, and we should see a modest improvement in October ... payrolls," Sal Guatieri, an economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in an email to clients. The number of people receiving benefits fell. Just over 5 million people received unemployment aid in the week ending Sept. 29, the latest data available. That was about 40,000 fewer than the previous week.

Some recent reports suggest the economy is picking up. Retail sales grew in September at a healthy clip. And builders started construction on new homes and apartments last month at the fastest pace in more than four years. Still, the economy is not growing fast enough to generate much hiring. Growth slowed to a tepid annual rate of 1.3% in the April-June quarter, down from 2% in the previous quarter. Most economists see growth staying at or below 2% in the second half of the year. The unemployment rate fell in September to 7.8%, the lowest level since January 2009, the department said earlier this month. It fell because a government survey of households found a huge increase in the number of people who had jobs. A jump in part-time employment accounted for most of the gain.

Employers, meanwhile, added 114,000 jobs in September, according to a separate survey of businesses. Hiring in July and August was also revised much higher. As a result, the economy gained an average of 146,000 jobs a month in the July-September quarter. That's more than double the monthly pace in the April-June quarter. Even so, hiring must be stronger to bring relief to the more than 12 million people who are unemployed. Roughly 100,000 new jobs are needed each month just to keep up with the working-age population.

Source
Click to expand...

waltky · Nov 2, 2012

Unemployment inches down to 7.9%...

171K jobs added, jobless rate 7.9 percent
WASHINGTON, Nov. 2,`12 (UPI) -- The U.S. Labor Department said Friday the economy added 171,00 jobs in October and the jobless rate rose to 7.9 percent as more people entered the workforce.

In the last key economic report before the presidential election, the Labor Department said the economy gained 184,000 private-sector jobs, which was offset by further layoffs of state and local government workers. The department also revised September's payroll gains upward to 148,000 jobs from the initially reported 114,000, and the August gain to 192,000, up from 142,000. The largest job gains in October were in professional and business services, healthcare, retail, leisure and hospitality, and construction.

The department said 578,000 more people actively sought employment in October and Alan Krueger, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said that was "largely" the reason the unemployment rate rose a 0.1 percent from its September rate of 7.8 percent. At a campaign rally in Hilliard, Ohio, Friday President Barack Obama told supporters the Labor Department report found U.S. companies "hired more workers in October than at any time in the last eight months." He said the economy has made "real progress" during his term in office "but we are here today because we know we've got more work to do."

Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney issued a statement calling the increase in the unemployment rate "a sad reminder that the economy is at a virtual standstill." "The jobless rate is higher than it was when President Obama took office," Romney said, "and there are still 23 million Americans struggling for work." U.S. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, said, "Four years of persistently high unemployment and long-term joblessness might be the best President Obama can do -- but it's nowhere near what the American people can do if we get Washington out of their way."

Paul Dales, senior U.S. economist for Capital Economics, told The New York Times Friday's report indicates things are "better than we'd expected and certainly better than we'd thought a few months ago," but he said the economy is not making sufficient progress to bring the jobless rate down "significantly and rapidly."

Read more: http://www.upi.com/Business_News/20...-79-percent/UPI-69961351837800/#ixzz2B7R6gjEB
Click to expand...

See also:

Damage from Sandy? What About the Potential Economic Boost?
31 Oct 2012 | As focus turns to the cost of the damage wrecked by Sandy, one of the biggest storms to hit the U.S., experts say the economy is set for a significant boost from the spending that will result from the need to rebuild homes and infrastructure.

The positive multiplier effect of reconstruction after Sandy could be as much as five times, according to Frank Holmes, CEO and CIO of money manager U.S. Global Investors. If the cost of the damages comes up to $20 billion, the economic boost in terms of spending and activity could be $100 billion, he said. America is great at rebounding and it will reinvigorate the economy. When you have committed infrastructure projects by governments, you get this automatic multiplying effect every dollar is worth $4 to $6, so I think the positive part is going into 2013, Holmes told CNBC Asias Squawk Box on Wednesday. Were going to get a lot of infrastructure spending.

A boost from reconstruction spending in the months ahead would help the U.S. economy, where a recovery has been slow. The U.S. economy grew a weak 2 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier and last month the Federal Reserve unveiled an aggressive monetary stimulus program to help get the economy get back on track. Holmes views echo that of Mohamed El-Erian, Co-CIO of PIMCO, who said on Tuesday that an initial decline in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) and the destruction of physical wealth will be offset over time by greater economic activity.

IHS Global Insight, a forecasting firm, said the storm could end up causing about $20 billion in property damage and $10 to $30 billion more in lost business, making it one of the costliest natural disasters on record in the U.S. EQECAT, a catastrophe risk modeling firm, estimates that the economic losses from Sandy could amount to $10-20 billion, and insured damage would be about $5 to $10 billion. Insured damage does not include what would be covered by federal flood insurance.

Corelogic, a firm that analyses data, estimates that 284,000 residential properties, valued at $88 billion, were at risk from the storms. This compares with the $108 billion in damages caused by Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the most destructive storm to hit the United States. The economy slowed in the quarter after Katrina before bouncing back quickly.

Big Spending
Click to expand...

CarlB · Nov 2, 2012

Wish more people would understand just how bad it is under this president.
Click to expand...

If people don't think it's terrible maybe it isn't, did you ever consider that??

Dispondent · Nov 2, 2012

7.9% isn't lousy unless you have real low expectations... Who would have that after almost four years of Obama? This is the 'hope and change' president, perhaps your standards are way too high...

bnbdnb · Nov 2, 2012

Yeah real nice. All the jobs going to the elderly. Low rate, service jobs, going to people near or should be retiring. Why are they getting most of the jobs? I guess Obama did promise change!

EMTdaniel86 · Nov 2, 2012

You know what all these 200,000 jobs that were added are? Seasonal employment jobs that has been going on since Early October.

Zxereus · Nov 2, 2012

Dispondent said: ↑

7.9% isn't lousy unless you have real low expectations... Who would have that after almost four years of Obama? This is the 'hope and change' president, perhaps your standards are way too high...
Click to expand...

And keep in m ind back in January '09 the administration claimed with their stimulus that by the end of the third quarter in 2012 (right now) the unemployment rate would be 5.4%. I would say they kinda missed the mark.

Dispondent · Nov 2, 2012

EMTdaniel86 said: ↑

You know what all these 200,000 jobs that were added are? Seasonal employment jobs that has been going on since Early October.
Click to expand...

Hey, there is supposed to be no mention on harvest jobs, or holiday jobs, which some start now, this is supposed to be an Obama celebration... Que song or vid now... I missed that part..

waltky · Apr 6, 2013

Granny says dat be Obama takin' care o' his gubmint buddies...

3.6 Percent Unemployment--for Government Workers
April 5, 2013 - There is a bright spot in the March jobless numbers, if government is your line of work.

The unemployment rate for civilian government workers dropped to 3.6 percent in March from 3.8 percent in February, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In February, there were 828,000 unemployed federal, state and local governments in the United States. In March, that declined to 786,000.

In July 2012, the unemployment rate for government workers was as high as 5.7 percent, according to the BLS, and the rate has been in a steady decline since. The current unemployment for government workers at 3.6 percent is the lowest rate since April 2011.

Since July, times have been very good for government in the United States, with governments managing to add 618,000 workers to their payrolls. In March, there were 20,633,000 total government workers in the U.S. In July the government employed 20,015,000 people.

The report also noted that within government, that employment for the U.S. Postal Service, which is planning to cut Saturday mail delivery, fell by 12,000 in March. The Bureau of Labor Statistics counts someone as a government worker if they are not in the military and they are currently employed by any level of governmentlocal, state or federalor they are unemployed, they are looking for work, and their last job was for any level of government.

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/36-percent-unemployment-government-workers
Click to expand...

See also:

Record 89,967,000 Not in Labor Force; Another 663,000 Drop Out In March
April 5, 2013 - A record 89,967,000 Americans were not in the labor force in March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That is an increase of 663,000 from the 89,304,000 Americans who were not in the labor force in February.

Since President Barack Obama was first inaugurated in January 2009, 9,460,000 people have dropped out of the labor force. The BLS counts a person as not in the civilian labor force if they are at least 16 years old, are not in the military or an institution such as a prison, mental hospital or nursing home, and have not actively looked for a job in the last four weeks. The department counts a person as in the civilian labor force if they are at least 16, are not in the military or an institution such as a prison, mental hospital or nursing home, and either do have a job or have actively looked for one in the last four weeks.

The number of people that BLS considers "in the labor force" affects the unemployment rate--which is the percentage of people "in the labor force" who are unable to find a job during the month. If someone previously considered "not in the labor force" were to go out and search for a job and not find one, they would have to be counted as in the labor force for that period--and thus would increase the unemployment rate. To the degree that Americans choose to simply drop out of the labor force rather than search unsuccessful for a job they decrease the unemployment rate.

In keeping with the increase in the number of people not in the labor force, the labor force participation rate decreased from 63.5 percent in February to 63.3 percent in March. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of Americans in the civilian population over age 16 who did not have a job or seek a job during the month. In January 2009, when Obama was first inaugurated, there were 80,507,000 people not in the labor force compared to the 89,967,000 who were not in the labor force in March.

Source
Click to expand...

Related:

315,000 Women Leave Labor Force in March
April 5, 2013 Figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday show that 315,000 women dropped out of the labor force in March.

According to BLS, the number of women not in the labor force grew to 49 million in March, up from 48.7 million in February, continuing a trend of women leaving the labor force in every month of 2013.

White House chief economist Alan Krueger said that the March jobs report which showed the lowest job creation in months was another sign that the economy continues to recover. While more work remains to be done, todays employment report provides further evidence that the U.S. economy is continuing to recover from the worst downturn since the Great Depression, Krueger said Friday on the White House blog.

Krueger said that the March report was evidence that country needed to continue the policies of President Obama. It is critical that we continue the policies that are helping to build an economy that creates jobs and works for the middle class as we dig our way out of the deep hole that was caused by the severe recession that began in December 2007.

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/315000-women-leave-labor-force-march
Click to expand...

Log in or Sign up

The 'Real' Unemployment Rate Is Still Really Lousy

Zxereus Well-Known Member Past Donor

Zxereus Well-Known Member Past Donor

waltky Well-Known Member

waltky Well-Known Member

CarlB New Member

Dispondent Well-Known Member Past Donor

bnbdnb New Member

EMTdaniel86 Banned

Zxereus Well-Known Member Past Donor

Dispondent Well-Known Member Past Donor

waltky Well-Known Member

Share This Page

Log in or Sign up

The 'Real' Unemployment Rate Is Still Really Lousy

Zxereus Well-Known Member Past Donor

Zxereus Well-Known Member Past Donor

waltky Well-Known Member

waltky Well-Known Member

CarlB New Member

Dispondent Well-Known Member Past Donor

bnbdnb New Member

EMTdaniel86 Banned

Zxereus Well-Known Member Past Donor

Dispondent Well-Known Member Past Donor

waltky Well-Known Member

Share This Page

Useful Searches