What's Happening in Syria- Get out a Map

Assad's Ba'ath Party controls Demascus & the loan remaining opposition of the Free Syrian Army remains in Aleppo.

Aleppo is in the Northern portion of the country near Turkey. It had a 4.5 M population. Assad will make every effort to hold Aleppo. Regime aims strategy at holding both Aleppo & Damascus.

The resistance led by the Free Syrian Army & various Islamic Freedom Fighting Groups took control of Minnakh Air Base, north of Aleppo August 5th. This interrupted Assad's ability to use Air Power to quell the resistance inside the city. Assad has recommitted resources to clearing Northern Towns for an eventual retake of the Air Base. When this occurs, new attack helicopters will be flown in to regain Air Supremacy.

Eastern Aleppo is controlled by the Free Syrian Army, but supply lines have been difficult to maintain from Turkey. The Western Side is controlled by Assad's Army, including the Citadel sitting at the Center of the City. The critical link for the resistance is Minnakh Air Base.

Assad has launched Operation Northern Storm, aimed at cutting the highway from Minnakh Air Base into Aleppo. He's utilizing the strategy of cutting the city from it's supply lines & leading a siege from both the North & South.

Al-Qusayr- Regime cleared & gained control of surrounding towns.
Government has pushed on the offensive in Aleppo rather than consolidating in Homs because they recognize that there is a certain time limit to the all-out support it is receiving from Hezbollah.

For the Rebels to regain Aleppo & thus have an opportunity to win the Civil War, they need Air Support on the Assad movement towards Aleppo. The supply chain from Homs to Aleppo must be cut & their must be a Naval Blockade of military supplies entering from Russia to the Naval Base in Tartus. Further efforts to cut the critical Highway from Aleppo-Damascus would buy the rebels time to regroup & fight a equal footed war against Assad's well-trained Army.

The 'Chemical Weapons' is a way to build American sentiment for a minimal engagement. The Rebels have fought in Aleppo, but have taken significant losses in Homs & other portions of the country. The Kurds have worked diligently to support the city of Aleppo in the Northern portion of the country, but they've shown resistance to frontal assaults, as Assad retaking Latakia has allowed aerial bombardments of their mountainous homes. Due to the Rebels currently creating a frontal Defensive position against the Regime moving from the South (A military blunder that shows unity & cohesiveness is weakening) they lack the capacities to maintain their supply lines from Turkey.

Rather than allowing Assad to encircle the city & prepare for the siege, the U.S. must slow down the pace of advancement from Homs. Hama is on the verge of falling & this is a time sensitive issue.

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Best Map. Not updated completely but shows pace of advancement.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Syrian_civil_war_detailed_map

 

The fundamental issue at hand in Aleppo is both the Free Syrian Army & their Islamic support fighting groups have been undersupplied, but at this point so is Assad's Army. The Resistance is loosing momentum, and needs help mitigating Assad's Air Supremacy. If Assad can use attack helicopters & fixed wings again, Aleppo will fall & the Civil War will be over. Assad will consolidate power. Additional bombardment should be on Demascus. More to divert Assad's ability to send additional resources North.

The U.S. won't invade & take Damascus, although given the way Assad has leveraged himself to the North, it could be done. But the threat that the U.S. might consider direct military intervention will require Assad to consider slowing momentum North. If a 'Coalition of the Willing' could be built to depose Assad, that would leave his Army leveraged hundreds of miles north without supplied, and would allow a Free Syrian Army victory. That's a route worth considering if we're dead set on defeating Assad. It would come with international ramifications, but Assad's Armies loyalty would be threatened if they knew Damascus had fallen.

Assad's Northern Aggression has been based on the assumption that no external military force would threaten his control of Damascus. He truly believes the U.S. won't build a Coalition to enter the City.

 

Final Note- The U.S. is building a potential Invasion Force in Southern neighbor Jordan. This is a strong regional Ally. The troops in Saudi Arabia will maintain base presence but not be diverted to support any engagement. The Navy has also added additional resources in the Red Sea. The question is if Russia heard of a military offensive beyond mere air Support, would some form of Naval Engagement occur? This would end badly for Russia, but would spark a backlash geopolitically.

Furthermore, Supplies are being brought into Syria from Iran via Iraq. If the U.S. were to get involved, close monitor of Iran's activities in the Straits of Hormuz would be necessary. The U.S. therefore cannot divert an Air Craft Carrier Task Force to the Red Sea, unless one is there already (Quite Possible). That makes the British involvement vital, as they've already shifted their Carrier into the Western side of the Region near Suez.

 

This was a good read, thanks for the info.

I hope the USA doesn't get involved... But I'm expecting us to, anyways.

 

If you haven't noticed, the U.S. supports the Sunnis & not the Shia Bloc stretching from Iran-Iraq & who have close ties with the Assad regime. The opposition forces consist of:

Syrian Opposition National Coalition
PM: Ghassan Hitto


National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary & Opposition Forces
- President: Ahmad Jarba
- VP Riad Seif & Suheir Atassi

Syrian National Council- Istanbul, Turkey


Free Syrian Army- General Salim Idris
- Liwaa al-Umma
- Al-Tawhid Brigade


Syrian Turkmen Brigades- Ali Basher & Col Muhammad Awad


Al-Nusra Front: Ahrar al Sham (the Free Ones of the Levant)

- Ahrar ash-Sham- Hassan Aboud

- Al-Tawhid Brigade- Abdel Qader Saleh

- Syrian Islamic Front- Ahrar al-Sham

- Jaish al-Muhajireen wal-Ansar- Chechen Abu Omar

- al-Qaeda in Iraq

- Ghuraba al-Sham

- Ghuraba al-Sham (Moderate)

- Fatah al-Islam


The issue is the Free Syrian Army is nowhere to be found except in Lattakia & Idlib or the Allawite sector loyal to Assad. The Al Nusra (Labled Al Quaeda by the State Department) are more organized into regional commands down to the platoon level. They control the Eastern Side of Aleppo & are at the forefront in Homs. What Assad wants to do is retake Minigh Air Base from Jaish al-Muhajireen wal-Ansar, led by Chechen Abu Omar. Then cut the supply lines from Turkey & prepare for a siege of Aleppo. The lack of cohesiveness is demonstrated by the opposition attempting to create a frontal resistance against the advance from Homs, while leaving supply lines vulnerable to a flanking maneuver. What can you say, it's a largely fragmented resistance that consists of various Al Nusra Sunni Salfist Groups & a geographically coastal isolated Free Syrian Army.

The U.S. objectives should be as follows:
1. Enforce a Full No Fly Zone.
2. Hinder advance of Armored Vehicles from Homs to Aleppo via the Highway that links Damascus to Aleppo through Homs.
3. Take out Surface to Air Missiles.
4. If you want to see the opposition win, enforce a Naval Blockade at Tartus to limit incoming Russian military hardware.
5. Force Free Syrian Army to take Active Role in defeating Iranian trained Defense Committees in the villages of Nebul & Zahra.
6. Limit supplies coming from neighboring Iraq by arming resistance in the southeastern quadrant of the country.
7. Control Supply Lines out of Turkey via use of Special Forces, or Turkish Para military troops. This includes route South from Azaz, the Turkey-Aleppo Highway.
8. Limit the Hezbollah offensive on Azaz (In Progress)
9 Choke off Assad's troops inside Aleppo from link to supply lines from Homs.
10. Mount Coalition of the Willing in Jordan & Israel for potential Land Invasion targeting Damascus to unseat Assad if necessary.

Use the Syrian Opposition National Coalition as the Transitional Government. Set up civilian infrastructure, humanitarian relief operations (Led by U.S. Aid). Force Sheikdoms (Qatar) to continue to offer generous aid to transitional government through rebuilding phase. Consider Land Grants to radical Islamists in lieu of political activism in Eastern Syria.

 

Of course. There's always good money in war. Sad, but true.