Super Tuesday nitty-gritty - info for everyone

Well, damn!

I was really looking forward to the look on Cruz's face during his concession speech in Texas.

 

He won the evangelicals in VA. too. You might want to check your facts.

Also, Trump won huge with military veterans in all state exit polls


And, Shrillary is having serious problems with the white Dem vote. That's gonna really hurt in the general when the Bernie kids sit home. 13% of the population isn't going to save her.

 

Update:

Here are the current delegate estimates from Politico:

Tennessee: Clinton 42 / Sanders 13, +28 delegates
Georgia: Clinton 68 / Sanders 21, +47 delegates
Virginia: Clinton 64 / Sanders 29, +35 delegates
Alabama: Clinton 33 / Sanders 1, +32 delegates
Arkansas: Clinton 22 / Sanders 6, +16 delegates
Texas: Clinton 138 / Sanders 42, +96 delegates

Those are incomplete allocations and surely they will change again, but alone from these 6 states, it's +254 for Hillary.

She is on track to have earned at least a +300 delegate lead over Sanders from this night alone.

- - - Updated - - -

The eddies and currents of history in the making....

 

Don't worry...we'll see it soon enough.

 

So, at 04:30 AM my time, I konked out and needed some sleep.

Whilst I was snoozing, the other results:

CNN called Arkansas for Trump at 11:14 PM EDT, with 82% of the vote in, making it his 6th win of the night.

CNN called Minnesota for Marco Rubio at 11:19 PM EDT, with 79% of the vote in, making it his first win overall in the Republican race.

CNN called Colorado for Bernie Sanders at 11:27 PM EDT, with 36% of the vote in, making it his 3rd win of the night.

CNN called Minnesota for Bernie Sanders at 11:30 PM EDT, with 80% of the vote in, making it his 4th win of the night.

CNN called Massachusetts for Clinton at 11:35 PM EDT, with 95% of the vote in, making it her 7th win of the night.

CNN called American Samoa for Clinton at 12:01 AM EDT, with 100% of the voting in, making it her 8th win of the night. Clinton 8, Sanders 4.

As of midnight, Vermont is still not called on the Republican side. The polls closed in Alaska, but nothing was called at closing time (Alaska is a Republican only contest this time around).

CNN called Vermont for Trump at 00:13 AM, EDT, with 87% of the vote in, making it his 7th win of the night.

As of 03:30 AM, EDT, Alaska is still not called, but interestingly enough, Cruz is leading in the Alaskan caucuses. With 67% of the vote in, Cruz is 3 points ahead of Trump, 36.3% to 33%. So, it looks like Cruz is going to score a third win tonight.

 

CNN called the Alaskan Republican caucuses for Ted Cruz at 03:53 AM EDT, making it his 3rd win of the night. This is a surprise win.

 

Cruz's 3 wins means he can stay around for a bit. Combined with Trump's wins and it's pretty obvious that the Anti-GOP coalition is larger than the Establishment. Putting the Establishment in a bind,.

The point for the Republicans isn't 2016, but 2020. By 2020, the new Republican Party should have a hold on the party and its platform. For now, this reconfiguration was largely needed. Unless Liberals are saying they prefer neo-con warhawks.

 

I've just read the results on New York Times site and still there is a great difference between the GOP and the DP as for composition of the vote.

At this point, I can say that Hillary will run for the Presidency next November [I cannot guess how Sanders could cover such an enormous gap]. On the other hand, the Republican field is still well divided. Cruz is strong [his victory in Texas is meaningful]. Rubio is substantially out [he should leave, if he wants to aid the GOP to avoid the "Trump nightmare"].

But the trend is clear: despite the efforts of the Republican establishment Trump is going to win the nomination if Cruz and Rubio will keep on running both.

If we make a bit of calculation:

TRUMP: 274
CRUZ: 149
RUBIO: 82
CRUZ+RUBIO: 231 [it's only less than 16% less than Trump's delegates]

The GOP should make a clear choice, to give an impulse [why not a "stimulus"?].

Otherwise Trump will be the winner .

 

Thanks for making some input.

I am just reporting what has happened, without any big commentary. History will speak for itself.

 

Stat,

What is Hilary's lead in pledged delegates? Is 300ish the number, or is it less? A lot of the aggregates online conflate pledged & unpledged. I'm dealing with a bit of a Sandersista infestation on an Australian board & a solid figure on pledged delegates would help to extinguish it so we can get on with the real stuff.

Thanks in advance.

 

That all being said, it's been a long time since we have seen a GOP candidate pretty much sweep the board on a Super Tuesday, and more importantly, over more than 1 geographical area. Statistically, Trump is in a better position right now than either Romney or McCain were in in 2012 and 2008, respectively.

Also to note is that Clinton's soaring margins in most all of the South were far above what the polling was predicting, most notably but not limited to her enormous Georgia margin of close to +49.

 

An exact count may take a couple of days. But including Supers, I think she will be about 400 over Sanders.

 

As of around 8 am today these are the wins and delegate counts'

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results

 

Yikes! Well it is time for illegals to start packing their bolsas!

 

But not really completely set in stone, especially in the caucus states. Once I get the polling data (I am really behind this time, due to to much work) done, I will also do a demographic postmortem on Super Tuesday.

And now, off to Super Saturday!!!

 

It really is a surprise to me considering Palin's endorsement of Trump.

 

2012, Romney won all but 4 states as well.

 

Including Supers she has a lead of almost 700 from what I can tell. My high school math tells me this is probably a lead of 200ish, but I'm guessing.

 

This is absolutely incorrect.

In the 2012 GOP primaries, Romney lost:

South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Tennessee, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Minnesota, North Dakota and Colorado.

That's 13 states.

13 is not 4. Get your facts straight. Thanks.

 

Palin is big with the tea party folks and that is about it. Remember with Alaska, tea party candidate Joe Miller defeated Lisa Murkowski in the 2010 Republican primary for senator. But Murkowski came back and easily won re-election as a write in candidate over Miller and Democrat Scott McAdams.

So Palin's influence in Alaska is not as great as one may think. She is the darling of only one faction within the GOP.

 

I think Palin's influence isn't as great anywhere as it once was. Does she even live in Alaska anymore? I think she moved to Arizona, maybe?

I am not a fan of Palin, and was being a tad facetious with that post.

Cruz is surprising me today tho...

 

Yeah, me neither. I never have been and said, "What the heck," when McCain picked her for his VP. That made no sense in anyhow one looks at it. I haven't the faintest idea where she lives.

 

he was talking about super Tuesday races only, which Romney won 6 and lost 4. Look at the post he replied to and you can see that's what he meant.