Currently: Trump: 739 Cruz: 425 Delegates left: 984 Trump needs 498 of the 984 left to reach 1237 Cruz needs 812 of the 984 left to reach 1237 By polls, Trump slaughters Cruz in New York, has a sizable lead in California, lesser leads in most other remaining states, and a 15% to 20% lead over Cruz nationwide. Maybe Trump will reach 1237 and maybe not, but Cruz can't make it unless Trump died or totally crashed. So it really has become an anti-Trump campaign now, not a pro-Cruz campaign. In short, Cruz has become the establishment/elitist's candidate. No surprise since he is Goldman Sachs/Wall Street's and big oil's candidate - meaning he is the "donor class" candidate. It is interesting that Trump is succeeding where Bernie Sanders is falling short. But if you erase the super delegates Sanders definitely has more of a shot at it than Cruz does.
don't count out crashing, lots of opportunities coming, or his propensity to cut n run when convenient
personally ill be interested in what cruz has to say when it becomes mathematically impossible for him to win. He needed what 80% of delegates? Shouldnt be too far off now.
You're pretty far behind the curve if you haven't figured out by now that Cruz and Kasich are staying in to try to keep Trump from getting to 1237 and thus forcing a brokered convention. I don't think that there has ever been a party nominee in either party, where the nominee failed to get 50% of the vote in every state. But that's where Trump is headed.
The Trump and Cruz camps have already announced a pact they made to keep Kasich off the convention floor. The establishment wants Kasich, not Cruz. It's more than likely as Cruz sees no way to win, that he'll make a deal with Trump for a Supreme Court nomination, maybe VP, etc. thereby insuring the impossibility of a brokered convention, which is a no win situation for Cruz. Kasich will probably run third party, backed by the bitterest of the GOP establishment. And, like John Anderson in 1980, he'll end up taking more Dem votes than Republican. President Trump
You'd be surprised. Check out Jimmy Carter's primary campaign. He got 40% of the popular vote and carried just a handful of states with 50+%. That being said, Trump's huge margin of victory in Arizona and his polling close to 50% among republicans nationally virtually guarantees that he'll easily exceeds 1237 delegates. The primaries are moving to states much friendlier to him than Arizona.
Good observation. However, Jimmy Carter DID get well over 50% of the primary vote in a number of big states. Trump hasn't done it once. Trump's national polling is meaningless, and it is also well below 50%, although his negatives are significantly higher. Trump is the candidate for a minority of the minority, dispite the smoke and mirrors. - - - Updated - - - Kasich is too smart to be anyone's third party candidate.
Perhaps Carter was doing marginally better. The point is this current situation is NOT unprecedented. Besides there's still 17 or so states left and in many of them Trump's chances to exceed 50% are excellent. National polls do matter, 50% nationally translates into 65% in NY and 55% or more in California. Which means he'll sweep both states. You do the math. It also shows that the Republicans are coming around and coalescing around him. Cruz and Kasich may dream about brokered convention all they want, but Republican voters are against it and vote accordingly.
He could exceed 1237 and still not get the nomination. The GOP can change the rules whenever they want
This is the issue for the RNC. They're getting record primary turnout but most of those people are coming out to decisively vote AGAINST trump. And in a general, those numbers just get dismal. Trump simply can't win....and frankly, neither can Cruz...he does only slightly better than trump in the math. The only candidate that has a chance is Kasich....or they could put in a new candidate, like Ryan. I think the RNC would simply throw in the towel and let trump lose the election if it wasn't for two things. One, he's causing huge embarrassment for the GOP because of his racist, kkklownish behavior and two, the SC appointment is more important than the Presidency. I literally cracked up at trump yesterday. Because he's a moronic one-trick pony, he went back to devisiveness and violence and started advocating for honorable men (who aren't coward draft-dodgers like him) to torture people again....as if anyone would listen to that kkklown telling them to commit crimes against humanity. The GOP has zero path to the White House right now. The only thing they can hope to do at this point is to continue to openly wage a war against trump so that the people that matter know that they didn't encourage his racism and xenophobia in their party. They should also try to do what they can to minimize the violence that's going to happen at their convention...because its going to be a mess and someone is going to get more hurt than they've already gotten at trump's KKK rallies.
If the GOP establishment were not so incompetent, it would have been able to orchestrate the nomination of one real politician rather than diluting the intense opposition to the celebrity entertainer amongst the madding crowd of aspirants until it was too late. Now, they're so desperate, some are actually using their last gasp to express support for the loathsome Carnival Cruz, despised by his Republican peers in the US Senate. The prattling pantywaists, as usual, whine about those ubiquitous, nebulous, demonic "Liberals!" that fester in their noggins, but the vehemence toward virulent Trumpery comes from a quite real and genuinely concerned quarter, partisan Republicans hellbent on survival. Thomas B Edsall has written another excellen column this one concerning the ongoing "crackup" of the GOP. He quotes some insightful comments by respected conservatives. John Feehery, the director of government affairs for the conservative lobbying firm Quinn Gillespie and Associates: "Palin was the real start of the dumbing down of the G.O.P., a cascading process that led to Trump. You dont get to Donald Trump without Sarah Palin. Representative Scott Rigell, Republican of Virginia wrote: Trump is a bully, unworthy of our nomination. My love for our country eclipses my loyalty to our party, and to live with a clear conscience I will not support a nominee so lacking in the judgment, temperament and character needed to be our nations commander-in-chief. Accordingly, if left with no alternative, I will not support Trump in the general election should he become our Republican nominee. Russell Moore, the president of the Southern Baptist Conventions Ethics and Public Policy Commission described Trump as a ... . "Howard Stern conservative, a reflection of the pornographic culture combined with proletarian demagoguery. Some of the older generation of evangelical leaders standing behind Donald Trump should imagine what they would say if a Democratic candidate had done or said any of the things that Trump has, his boasts of adultery, his profiting from casinos, his putrid speech about minorities and women." Moore, again: "We should not demand to see the long-form certificate for Mr. Trumps second birth. We should, though, ask about his personal character and fitness for office. His personal morality is clear, not because of tabloid exposés but because of his own boasts. The staunch Republican went on to recommend that voters should ... ... count the cost of following Donald Trump. To do so would mean that weve decided to join the other side of the culture war, that image and celebrity and money and power and social Darwinist winning trump the conservation of moral principles and a just society. We ought to listen, to get past the boisterous confidence and the television lights and the waving arms and hear just whose speech were applauding. Erick Erickson, the Georgia-based conservative commentator: "I dont give a damn about the will of the people. Im telling you that I personally will not ever support Donald Trump. If you dont like it, deal with it. Its the will of this person! The will of the people is just a polite way of saying the collective, which is the authoritarian, socialist destiny of this nation if Donald Trump is elected. I want no part of it and will play no role other than to stop Donald Trump." An augean outhouse divided against itself cannot stand. The 2016 election will serve as a "wake up" call, and the disgruntled ideologues can self-deport to Brownbackistan.
Exactly LibChik. He can't even win the Republican nomination, he has a ceiling at 33%...or does he? Lol at people making ridiculous predictions, getting egg all over their faces and making the next absurd prediction right away.
Trump might look like winning the nomination, but he'll be crushed in the general by either Sanders or Clinton, Sanders more so. If the conservatives really wanted to have a shot at the White House, they'd nominate Cruz or Kasich.
Cruz = Goldwater, Kasich = Romney, McCain or worse Trump = defying all expectations and predictions, including yours. PS you people haven't even noticed how you've just seamlessly switched from Trump can't win the nomination to Trump can't win the GE... Start practicing Trump can't win the second term, you're going to need it in November
Dude , look at the ratings Trump has with Latinos and African American voters. In addition , look at all the polling from various organizations from various states showing Clinton with a lead over Trump, Sanders even more. Trump is squashed in New York, Utah, Ohio just to name a few . Not all the white nationalists in the country would get Trump elected . Trump is in the tank with minorities. Put down the Trumo Kool Aid, you're setting yourself up for failure.
Ratings are meaningless 8 months before the election. Reagan was losing to Carter by 2:1 margin at this stage of the election cycle. The only reason Kasich and Sanders numbers are OK is because they have been completely ignored by their competitors and the media. If by some miracle they are nominated and start bashing each other nonstop, their numbers will plunge below Trump's in a heartbeat. Trump's been through hell, 6 months of 24/7 demonization by competitors, both parties and the media. His numbers have nowhere to go but up, once Kasich's skeletons are pulled out of his closet, his campaign will collapse.
It's really a disservice to the Reagan name, if there is a legacy, to try comparing Reagan to such a repulsive man. Full of empty promises and rhetoric people want to hear, and none of the reality people need to hear. How is one supposed to live with themselves knowing their voted for a divider in chief ? And don't say Obamas been one , because Trump will make Obama look like Obama organized communities for better. Trump hasn't been through hell, you kidding me brah? The media, including Fox, has cozied up to Trump. They haven't asked Trump difficult enough questions , and when they have, Trumps found some squeamish way around answering the question, and actually go into detail. 'My way or the highway" doesn't work in politics, deal with the facts that Trump is a flawed candidate , and that he has alienated the minorities needed to win in the general.
My post wasn't about Reagan, my post was about the entirely meaningless nature of GE polls and numbers at this stage of the campaign. Reagan losing to Carter by 2:1 margin was an example of how things drastically change between March and November. Btw Clinton in 1992 is another such example and there are many many more. PS lol at media cozying up to Trump. Too funny.
Cruz's view probably is that he doesn't have to outright win. Rather, he only has to get close to Trump and deadlock the convention. Then the Republicans would offer what they call "a unity ticket" with Cruz-Kasich or Cruz-Rubio.
The media, including FOX, is NOT cozying up to Trump. They are pounding Trump and with every distortion possible. For example, while Cruz also says he will deport those illegally in the country, would have patrols watching Muslim neighborhoods in the USA and ban Muslims from many Muslim countries, the media ONLY pounds Trump on this calling him a bigot and racist. The media declares as FACT that Cruz is a true conservative and is an outsider, when in fact he is the establishment/elitists/donor class candidate. The media now is presenting as fact that Trump wants to "weaken NATO," when that is not what Trump said. He said 1.) NATO countries have to pay their share of their defense and 2.) if a NATO country will not join in the fight against ISIS then they are out of NATO. That is NOT weakening NATO. It means having only NATO countries that actually will honor the alliance and for the USA to stop being chumps in terms of NATO costs. Declaring Trump did not disavow Duke and the KKK? A lie. That Trump - not the Democrats - are generating violence and riots? A lie. There is no lie, no distortion, the media will not present.
They've been betting against him from the start of his campaign only to be proven wrong every step of the way. Why should we listen tot hem now?
Personally, I'd love to see that happen. Then, we will truly see the sincere depth of Trump's "commitment" to the GOP.
Lol. Commitment is a two way street, if the party robs him he will have no moral obligation to remain committed to the robber. That said, 60% of republican voters want the party to rally behind whoever wins the biggest number of delegates. PS Trump is going to get to 1237.
