"They" say if Trump is not anointed at the convention, leading in delegates but not having met the 1237 threshold, that the GOP will implode, vaporize, if you will. They'll be doomed, not only in this election, but as a party. I wondered about this, what did history say? Some talking head mentioned that the GOP has had 10 contested conventions ... and the leader going in only won the nomination for three of those. (looking for source/link if you find one) Then I found a most interesting article ... and a tale that sounds ever so current to this election cycle. I notated with highlights some of these details. Enjoy the read: It's hard to imagine the party blowing up if Trump loses the nom ..UNLESS.. the 'bosses' go beyond candidates with delegates now. And Priebus has made it clear that the nominee would be one of the three remaining candidates. The Dems aren't in much better shape, as Sanders is shooting for a contested convention as well! And they are no more rare for the Dems than for the GOP: And the party is still going strong 92 yrs later.
this happens to be 2016, that was back when when there we're no primary's, and candidates where picked in smoke filled rooms, and slavery was legal, trying to compare the theft of a nomination, as being a normal thing is plain nuts. Trump has millions of votes more then everyone else combined. do you really expect millions of those Trump voters to just sit down and shut up after they are robbed by the RNC establishment?. and for anyone who thinks that Wisconsin RNC primary was on the up and up is freaking delusional. cross eyed Scott Walker and his RNC ilk are pros at rigging the vote.
Yes, I can read a calendar too ... and spell 'primaries'. There have been 10 contested conventions on the GOP side alone, the last in 1976 (they were past the telegraph stage. /sarc) The Dems have also had their contested conventions. No parties have been vaporized in the process. I would suggest that you do not understand how political parties (and their conventions) work. And don't want any info that would disrupt your rhetoric. I suppose you believe that we live in a democracy as well? We do not. We are not bound by the vagaries and tyranny of the masses any more than those of the govt ... we live under the rule of law. And so it is with political parties as well. They have rules for selecting their nominee. The public votes to determine the number of delegates assigned to possible candidates. Delegates are bound only in the first round of voting...meaning, it's only "rigged" for the first round of voting, sir. May I remind you that the rules state that a 1237 delegate count is the only guarantee of nomination. And bubba, if you have not reached that number, you cannot be robbed of what you do not own! I will, however, agree with you on one matter: if the GOP chooses someone other than one of the three candidates who have made it intact, and with delegates, to the convention ... the GOP is gonna have a real problem on its hands. Don't screw with the rules, play by them, and this will not destroy the party ... unless perhaps Trump is actually elected. *sigh*
totally disagree, and if you knew anything about the rules which you seem to profess, you'd know that 1237 number is also a temporary rule, that can be changed before the convention. if Trump is robbed there will be millions and millions of pissed off voters beyond imagination, your welcome to hang out in fantasy land, but eventually you'll have to join the rest of us out here one day. so digest that bubba or whatever glad you decided to come back to 2016 hope you did not alter any past events?
You suggest "that 1237 number ... can be changed before the convention" and think I AM "in fantasy land"? Do you suppose they would raise or lower that number? Oh do explain. Trump cannot be robbed of a nomination that he has not secured with the requisite number of delegates. And your attempts to move the goalposts from HAS to ALMOST HAS does not alter that reality.
The republican party will endure as long as there are enough old, scared, ignorant white men with inadequacy issues to keep it afloat. It is entertaining to see the crazies of the party attempting to usurp power from those who are potty trained.
Most press bites I read on this issue make the same assumption. That if Trump is a bit short of 1237 that this will be an opening for Cruz and that delegates will erode for Trump and go to Cruz. I think that is a media bias assumption.
which way do you think the RNC would move that number?, come on, you're smarter then that. that 1237 rule is temporary and can be raised before the convention, you don't hear anything about that because the RNC hopes it will never come to that.
Salmon P Chase would become Treasury secretary, and make Andrew Jackson roll in his grave by establishing a national banking system, and issuing the first "greenbacks" He would later go on to a seat on the US Supreme Court, and preside over the impeachment trial of Andrew Johnson. Simon Cameron was indeed a crook of the first magnitude. And early advocate of railroads, he outfoxed the B & O's John W Garret and gained control of the North Central Railroad, one of only two railroads that ran from North to South before the Civil War. Lincoln made him Secretary of War, a post he looted with glee in a manner so egregious that Lincoln removed him and banished him to Russia as a Minister (the US didn't have ambassadors in those days).
What Rience Priebus says carries little weight anymore. He watched the GOP clown care spin out of control in 2012, and by the time that circus ended, the GOP brand was so damaged in the mind of the electorate, that their candidate, Romney started out with a strong head wind against him. A head wind called the tea party. He never recovered. Priebus led an effort to do an "autopsy" on that campaign. The party concluded that they had to be more diverse and incusive. Then they did the opposite. Priebus next tried to establish a schedule for party sanctioned television debates during the primary. This appeared to work at first, but the party has little say in how these were run. When Donald Trump gained national attention with a campaign that was the polar opposite of the GOP's "autopsy", the television networks saw a business opportunity. Roger Ailes set the stage. The first debate was an elaborately produced game show in which the game was to get Trump. Trump played the victim and attacked Fox News. This was potent. Had the first debate been at CNN or MSNBC, the outcome might have been very different. But Trump forced Ailes to back down publically and banish the new personality he was grooming (temporarily). This was a warning shot to the cable news world. Donald is the star of the circus and woe betide anyone who tries to deminish his role as ringmaster. From that point on, the Republcian National Committee became irrelevant. But as they say, time wounds all heels, and the worms are turning against Trump. It is almost certain now that Trump will not be the candidate. Much hard work is being done behind the scenes to make sure Trump's delegates are not secure, and to keep him from securing any in caucusses. He is being outsent 10 to 1 in advertising in the remaining primary states. And operatives and lawyers are working on ways to keep Trump delegates from being credentialed. The GOP will not vanish as a political institution. Depending on how it manages to keep Trump off the ballot, the damage may be limited to one election. Already, the folks working to stop Trump are contemplating who might emerge. I suspect taht a large part of that calculus is based on how badly mauled they think the GOP will be in down ticket elections this fall. If they screw this up, that damage could be substantial indeed, and affect the GOP for a decade or more. If that happens, the party that emerges will be very different than the one we've seen for that last forty years. The age of the "angry white man" is over.
I don't think the republican (and democratic as well) base has ever been this dissatisfied with the party. They have figured out that the party treats them with contempt. Yes contested conventions have happened in the past but I don't think it has happened in this environment before.
Actually, this is precisely the environment in which contested elections happen. The last one was the GOP convention in 1976, which pitted Ronald Reagan, then the favorite of the Moral Majority and the anti abortion movement (the same far right wing that is behind Trump now), against Gerald Ford, who was very much the establishment candidate.
I completely agree with you that each party sets their own rules and chooses their nominee, and that you cannot be robbed of what you do not own. Explaining the process to the electorate might have helped. I don't think it is too late to do that. I'm just not sure that either side wants the dirty details exposed broadly to an electorate that seems to believe their individual vote counts in a national election, rather than just determining how their state's electors are set. As you pointed out, way too many people in this country believe we live in a democracy instead of a republic. Like you, I don't think the party will vaporize, but I do think it has already been damaged significantly and will take some time to repair. I think the GOP has suffered a splintering fracture. Resetting a fracture is painful and often requires a long healing time and an immobilizing cast. The GOP sorely needs a real doctor- an intelligent, charismatic communicator to lead, to unite, to heal the party. I don't even see a nurse practitioner, much less a doctor. There are lots of witchdoctors though.
... the far right wing is behind cruz not trump. If your #1 issue is abortion you went to cruz a long time ago. The core of trump is actually the "moderates" in the gop.
er .. I asked first, it was your assertion. Please do share, as you've thought on it. Yes, I'm a stepper alright And obviously I know that the rules may be changed. I also know that changing the rules in the middle of the game will destroy any credibility that the party has. I look for no changes in the threshold ... but the GOP may go with Superdelegates (think Dems) in the future. I think everyone is aware of the repercussions of such a change, and dismissed it out of hand! There may be changes, I seriously doubt that will be one of them. That's politics. If he didn't realize that, he should have bought some "very smart people" a long time ago. Only narcissists believe that they only need to show up and move people with the force of their charisma. Outspent, I presume? That's laughable. Trump has sucked the air out of every news venue daily since he announced. It's all Trump, all the time: news, local and national talk shows, call in radio, name it. No one in the history of campaigning has ever had more free air time. agreed I think both parties are answering to their most extreme factions this cycle. Exactly why the Founders didn't want a democracy, no? Oh there's a skilled doctor, and he's still in the race. Though no one can take their eyes off the brass-headed blowhard billionaire buffoon long enough to realize that. And if he has any sense, he's talking to Rubio on a daily basis. agreed. could not disagree more! The "core" of Trump supporters are those "angry white men". In fact, almost exclusively so, which is why, imho, he's unelectable in the general election. The moderates are those who have kept in another contender...and why he polls highest in the general against either Dem candidate.
There are, IMO, only two scenarios for the 2016 GOP Convention in Cleveland- 1. Trump becomes the Nominee....and State and Congressional Repubs in most States make sure their schedules prevent them from being within 25 miles of Trump when he campaigns in their State. 2. The RNC bartering with Kasich and Rubio, arrange for Cruz to get to 1237 on the 2nd or 3rd ballot. A Trump Revolt then takes place in the Quicken Loans Arena. Perhaps even a few fights break out. Trump demands a prime-time speech to speak to his supporters. Priebus, Cruz, et al say they will only agree if Trump says he will support Cruz. Trump will refuse....Priebus goes on the Networks and says "No, no, no...we're not censoring Donald. He's free to give any speech he wants....OUTSIDE the convention hall. But THE RULES make no mention of having to give the guy who lost the Nomination a speech from the podium." Trump supporters try to drown out Cruz endorsement speeches. Priebus and Paul Ryan threaten them with eviction by security if they don't stop. They don't stop...and ON LIVE NATIONAL TV.....guards begin to eject the Trumpsters. It's chaos and when it's done...the arena looks half-deserted, while Convention aides try to get people to "spread out a bit" to make it look like the arena floor is "crowded." Meanwhile, denied a speech, Trump and Trump spox make the rounds saying the opposite of Reince's spin on "rules" and clearly Priebus is put in the position of confirming the meme that "The Establishment STOLE Trump's Nomination." Trump will then "hint" at an Independent Run in the weeks after the Convention. Cruz meanwhile comes out of Cleveland with THE LOWEST APPROVAL POLLS seen by a Nominee in years...and never recovers.
I would say the thing that really differentiates this convention from the 76 one, is social media and the 24 hour news cycle. This has made the primary process very intimate. The electorate feels like it truly has a say in the process. If they are shown that they do not then you will see huge issues from the recently disenfranchised voters (or at least they will believe they have been disenfranchised)
not to mention our credibility when it comes to elections around the world will be damaged and discredited. the United States will have no moral ground to even open our mouth about any other Country's election process.. The United States is not a democracy, that is why our Country is falling apart, we keep getting fed establishment anointed candidates that do not represent the people as a whole, that goes for both parties.
I did check my math, I know a crooked system when I see one. the theft of a nomination will be the end of the RNC. as a viable party in the future RNC, primary states will be the first to feel it financially, next time around since they mean nothing to a crooked rigged RNC system other then a charade to drum up revenue.
He was referring to your incorrect claim that "Trump has millions of votes more than everyone else combined". That is absolutely false. As of now, Trump has approx 8.26 million (37.01%). Cruz 6.32 million, Rubio 3.48 and Kasich 2.98 Those 3 add up to 12.78 million. That alone disproves your claim.
INot sure your numbers are correct, but lets just go with your numbers for time purposes, so you're still saying Trump has millions of votes more then the 2nd place Ted Cruz, and will have millions more votes then everyone combined most likely in the upcoming weeks.
Trump has received 37% of the total Republican vote, 8,256,309 votes to be exact. That's not exactly millions of votes more than all the other candidates combined. If you just add up Cruz and Kasich votes together they come out to 9,208,623 votes. A million votes more than what Trump has received. That is not counting the other candidates that dropped out. But 63% of the total Republican vote has been cast for someone other than Donald Trump. Receiving 37% of the total vote has been enough to put Trump in the delegate lead in a multi field contest. But 37% is hardly a ringing endorsement of Trump. Especially when you consider 63% of all Republicans thus far wanted someone else for their nominee. We'll see what happens, Trump might reach the magic 1237 number in delegates and all of this will mean nothing. Time will tell.
You can try to Trump bash all you want, but Trump has millions more votes then the number two guy the Canadian Cowboy Ted Cruz. I don't count little marco or the wierdo John Kasich.
Not bashing, just pointing out that 63% of Republicans thus far want someone else other than Trump. You also used the word combined. So does 37% dictate to the other 63% what they can or can't do at the convention? I have a feeling no matter whom is the Republican nominee it will mean little or next to nothing come November. The Republican party is in chaos, divided, fractured perhaps beyond repair for November. You have approximately 30% of the anti-Trump Republicans stating under no circumstances will they support or vote for Trump in November. You have the about the same number of Trump supporters saying the same thing if the Republicans nominate someone other than Trump and the remainder who would support anyone that comes out of the convention as the GOP nominee. There is no way any Republican candidate can win in November with just 70% of its base vote whether Trump is or is not their nominee.
