The Syrian Civil war has lasted about 5 years now. It is brilliantly and majestically complicated with many powers particpating. It started off as street protests, a part of the movement of the Arab Spring. The Iranians sent in equipment to eliminate the rioting but it failed. Eventually, small street battles ensued, and former Syrian soldiers defected. There was a popular wave against the Assad regime, with many generals and minsters defecting to the rebels side. Many switched sides for fear of being on the losing side, and Clinton, the Israelis, and others said he only had a few weeks to live or months even. They thought he would be deposed like so many during the Arab spring. Yet despite his huge loss in popularity, and so many people switching sides against him for fear of him losing he staid in power. He initially lost a string of battles, soldiers, and allies in the government. The momentum was against him. Then Clinton came out with her, "Assad must go" speech. The Kurds in the north took advantage of the situation and set up Kurdish regions, while the rebels expanded their control in the countryside and towns. Fighting escalated in 2012, and by 2013 the situation was extremely dangerous, and for the first time labeled a civil war. Hezbollah entered the fighting, as did Iranian soldiers, and equipment. Foreign powers like Russia, China, and Venezuela entered the battle. In 2012 we saw the rebels expand their hold in the countryside and territory. Even Syria's main backer, Russia said, finally in earlier 2013 that government may fall, adding that it would only happen after many thousands of people were killed, and for a more unstable Syria. In 2013 the death toll peaked, with the rebels unsuccessfully trying to take hold of large cities. Please take note that at no point have the Rebels ever had full control of a city. Islamic groups like Al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Nursa radicalized the country, and especially the rebels, and Obama saw this and refused aid for fear of them gaining the weapons The Kurds are not toyed with at all, by both sides, and only hesitantly by ISIS. The Persmerga are considered and quite possibly are the best soldiers in the middle east. They are the only ones able to defeat ISIS, but mostly stand their ground. The Syrian government and rebels to do not fight with them, and have established large swath swaths of territory in the north like Iraq. A Kurdistan may be developed from this conflict. The Kurds have held their ground against ISIS and won with US support against ISIS in Kobani. Diplomatically there was much wrangling. The Russians vetoed measures against Syria, and even sent in logistical support and sold them their S-300s and anti-ship missiles. The US supported the rebels, but cautious Obama delayed sending in arms and aid. Only in 2013, and then only humanitarian aid, did they send aid. The Saudis were less cautious, as other states. The Iranians supported their best friend hugely, sending in troops. Initially the IRGC was only there for logistics, but in 2013 they expanded their support to actual combat troops, mostly the Basil. The rebels became more armed with support from Saudi Arabia and also capturing arms. Flights on a daily basis went to and from Iran and Syria, carrying people and military cargo. In 2013 the crisis reached a peak, and at the end, a turning point. The casualties skyrocketed, and 2013 remains the most deadly year. Hezbollah entered the conflict this year, and Iran sent in their Basjil (paramilitary forces) to the conflict. They also sent in arms, and gave more logistical support and training, by way of the IRGC (Iranian revolutionary Guards Corps). The fighting saw the conflict that year spill into Iraq and Lebanon. Iraq and Syria cooperated as allies actually as both are Shia. Despite the all of the deaths on both sides, the Syrian government remained in power, and took more and more territory. They began to clearly establish dominance by the end of 2013. The Syrian government looked poised to win, with more and more territory gained. At the end of the year Hezbollah withdrew saying he was no longer in danger of falling, and the Assad regime said they plan spend to 2014 "mopping up terrorists (rebels)", which they would of had not ISIS entered the fray. In 2014 ISIS entered the battle field. This changed the dynamic severely. They spilled over from Iraq into Syria. The sudden rise shocked many. The US began doing airstrikes, mostly in Iraq as that's an area of vital interest for us, and we didn't want it to become a Vietnam. We did a few strikes in Syria, but only when needed. The Syrians looked the other way. They pushed rebels out of the countryside, and took a huge swath of territory, although mostly desert. They weakened the Syrian military so much that the rebels staid alive. ISIS's brutality towards Syrian soldiers was sick, like mass executions in the underwear that were filmed in broad daylight. They pushed into Syria and it seemed like they were seriously threatening the Assad regime, because they were. They entered the fray and Somilized the country. It allowed for the rebels to stay alive, and make sure no power could defeat each other. The Assad regime began to lose more ground, and his hold weakened. Aleppo was threatened, and then Putin, emboldened by the events in the Ukraine and seeking to expand power, intervened Russia of course did a massive intervention into Syria, doing thousands of sorties and over 1k strikes. Indeed, in 1 year they did more than the entire collation of 12+ countries in 3 years as far as the number of strikes. This obviously turned the tide back in favor of Assad, but only limited for now. Their offensives have ground to a halt. Things stalemated. Putin announced unexpectedly a drawn down of forces. The reason being they do not want to enable Assad to disregard the ceasefire by allowing for government offensives. They want a peace treaty to be signed, and more airstrikes enable Assad to keep fighting. They have kept components there, and are doing strikes but less so. The Iranians also intervened sending in troops from the IRGC to actually fight and lead Iranian Shia militias, especially near Aleppo. They also assist the Syrians with planning. As of right now, the cease fire is collapsing, and we are likely to see this conflict continue for another 2-5 years. The government forces are preparing to take Aleppo with Russian help and Iranian. They may well succeed. The rebels are slowly losing, and ISIS is on the defensive. Yet Syria will never be a full Syria again. The Kurds will make a Kurdistan, and ISIS will remain for another decade at least like the Taliban in Afghanistan. The rebels will not be defeated fully and will be an insurgency for a while. The Syrian government is the most powerful force in Syria now. Their troops are battle hardened from years of combat and bloodshed in the bloodiest war of this century and the past 50 years. They are true combat vets. God help anyone who tries fighting them. They are now able to routinely repel ISIS attacks, something only the Pershmega are able to do (the best in the Middle East) and something Iraq has not been able to do. The secular rebels fight against the Islamic rebels, the Syrian government and ISIS. The Islamic rebels fight with and against ISIS, the Syrian government, and the rebels. The Syrian Government fights against fights against all rebels and ISIS. ISIS fights against literally everybody except a few Islamic rebel groups. How do you see this ending? View attachment 42646 View attachment 42647
ISIS will be defeated obviously. It's fighting too many enemies. The Iraqi security forces take back their cities. The Sunnis will be brutally treated by the Shia Militias for sure. There will be an political infighting between the President and Prime Minister and Iraq. The nation will fall to 2011 levels with ever now and then car bombings and suicide attacks. It will still be a battleground for the Sunni and Shia Cold War. ISIS is mainly defeated by Regime forces. Assad is hailed as a hero. Many ISIS fighters join the back to Al-Nusra or join the Islamic Front. Hillary will likely be president and implement a no Fly zone in Syria. Putin will probably still supply Putin but not as much, giving the rebels time to recover as more US Special Forces come in and give the Rebels weapons especially ones that can shoot down aircraft. The US Air Force and the Russian Air Force buzz each other but are unlikely to go to full out war. As the Kurds defeat the last remnant of ISIS, they will likely focus right back on the Syrian regime. The Russians and Assad have to come up with a compromise. The Kurds hate Assad but hate the Jihadists as well. Assad refuses to give a Kurdish state, but needs the Kurds. The Kurds and Assad likely strike a truce. Assad starts fighting the FSA, Al Nusra, and other anti-regime groups. With US Weapons, the Oppositions are able to dent Assad's forces quite badly. However it is likely Assad will gain an edge. Russian forces will still be there IMO. The United States will unlikely bomb Assad's forces with conventional airstrikes. The American people are simply too tired of war and this will not go well with Congress, meanwhile Russian media will say the brave Russians are crushing the terrorists. So the US has to resort to proxy tactics like using Special forces to engage Assad. The Rebels are too divided between Jihadist groups, pro-Saudi groups, Turkmen and the group the US likes. The US tries to convince to Kurds, but the Kurds do not trust the rebels since they fear the destabilization of the region. Without actual US Military engaging Assad, Assad has all the momentum currently. The US may start a Kosovo style campaign all over again just like Bill Clinton did. Will it is the question. That will depend on a lot of factors of the future. Who knows? Only time will tell. -If it doesn't-Saudi forces are unlikely to intervene. Turkey is too afraid of the Russian Air Force to do much. Assad wins and suppresses the Kurds. Assad wins. The end. A couple years to decades of Dictatorship. -If it does-Russia gets super angry and starts heavily bombing of the Kurds-the US and Russia start a massive proxy war. Russian pilots disguised as Syrians duel with US F-22s, and CIA agents on Saudi Fighter jets duel with Russian Su-35s. Either way the proxy war ends quickly to prevent escalation, and the US can exhaust the Russians in any military conflict. The conflict resolves like Kosovo with the nation under UN control. Those are my predictions.
You don't seriously believe they're going to hang around in the region do you? There's probably one or two of them living in your street right now, waiting for the signal to go into action in a shopping mall near you. You might know your stuff on military hardware but you sure are naive in other things.
And how do you this "loss" wont be re-gained next week ? you know Da'esh gets its support from the very large Sunni part of Islam and they dont lack ppl. I also dont see how they will clear the cities, any army that will fight there will cause 100,000's of civilian deaths and that in time will empower Da'esh all over again.
What on earth makes you think Sunnis support ISIS? Daesh was selling a bit of oil... now its just extortion and bank robberies.
Eh.......1.5 Million size city surrenders to a few hundreds of Da'esh fighters without a fight, in fact they cellebrated their victory with them on the streets, and the fact they rode on Shia opression since the begining gave them many troops.
Actually ISIS has NOT had complete control of any city... What do you mean Shia oppression? Most of Syria's military were Sunni conscripts. I haven't seen any film of massive pro-ISIS demonstrations or celebrations.
They will likely be Iraq 2011 levels, but nothing serious. Assad will likely enforce martial law in those areas.
I don't see how it benefits us all that much, but it does benefit Israel. I believe de-stabilizing the area was the plan all along.
I'm leaning to an Assad victory in Syria, but he can thanks Mr Putin a lot for that one. It may take a few more years. The outcome for Syria though ? Assad remains in power and the dictatorship continues ? of course no Syrians refugees in Europe will want to return under such terms. So in the end it's a mess anyway. Iraq on the other hand is in a civil war basically since Operation iraqi freedom started in spring 2003. I agree with another poster, as long as Baghdad is Shia ruled, the sunny will continue planting bombs all over the country. Syria was the continuity of the Arab Spring and street protests whereas Iraq, eh, thanks Dubya and Rummie, it was supposed to be ''fast, cheap and easy'' and the escapade has lasted over ten years and costed trillions, not to mention the thousands dead US soldiers and many more crippled for life...''Mission accomplished''.
Assad's army consists of 70% Sunnis, so why would they be brutally treated? You're thinking of Iraq which was a different situation. The Shias there were persecuted harshly by Saddam, especially after their defeat in the First Gulf War, while under Assad in Syria, no one was really persecuted... although they might not have been represented in the government the way they should have been. I think that is one of the problems Lavrov has been trying to solve with his peace talks in Geneva.
He likely will stay in power. He define all expectations and stated in power. At one point he was holed up for several days at his palace with rings of check points around it and insurgents 1000ft from it doing suicide blasts at the checkpoints. Your Kurd prediction I agree with 100 percent. US special forces are currently training the opposition, and Obama just a few days ago increased their presence by about 200. - - - Updated - - - They are on the defensive, but even if defeated conventionally, they will be around for a while, like the Taliban. - - - Updated - - - Yes they have. Mosul, and several smaller cities. - - - Updated - - - Iraq is an American repeat of Vietnam, just on a larger scale.
This will give you an amazing glimpse into the region - - - Updated - - - Check out this map. It is amazing View attachment 42690
Do you remember that the Islamic State supposedly was ''about to take over'' Baghdad back in June 2014, or were only 80kms from the Capital. As powerful as they were then, they never made it. I think I read at some point in the war that they could take both Bagdhad and Damascus, which was incredibly pessimistic. The damage and mass murder, bombing and so on (possibly genocide) they have done in two years is awful nonetheless
I disagree with the Baghdad assessment and Damascus. Baghdad was being fortified, and we would of had to intervene at that point. Damascus sits in the heart of their territory and the troops there are of EXCELLENT quality because of experience and being of the Republican Guard.
