well ppp has a good record of being on the mark with past accuracy and results see below link, so hillary cult types here have to be really feeling the heat with these poll numbers ,from the unstoppable trump train engine that is now of full speed ahead to the debates and election http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/09/presidential-race-up-for-grabs-in-florida.html http://hotair.com/archives/2016/09/...s-four-way-race-first-time-since-conventions/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Policy_Polling
Talk of Trump being close to Clinton or beating her in the polls will help get out the Democrat votes.
Trump is killing her nationwide as far as voter enthusiasm. She is going to need best ground game ever to get voter turnout.
IF Trump is doing so well in Florida, how come he just shook up his campaign management there? As with the rest of his campaign, his ground game is pathetic. http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/09/trump-shakes-up-florida-campaign-team-105270
Florida is considered a tossup state or a swing state and should be close. Here is RCP's average. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5963.html I tend to go by the average instead of just one poll as it lowers the MOE. In the PPP poll you cited, it has a MOE of plus or minus 3.6 Points. Which simply means there is a 95% chance that Clinton is between 46.6 and 40.4%. That Trump is somewhere between 47.6% and 41.4%. Averaging reduces that MOE. Trump's lead of one is within the MOE and that means a tie. Same with the Mason-Dixon poll which gives Clinton a two point lead which is also within the MOE of 4.0 which once again means a tie..
Considering he has no ground game, she probably only needs a moderate ground game. Trump is going to be embarassed in November, and the Trumpkins will be responsible for Hillary becoming President.
He is currently outpacing her as far as enthusiasm by about 14%. Only 42% of her supporters are at the least even moderately excited. She is relying on minority votes that she isn't exciting to get out and vote.
The election has not yet happened but those who do not want Trump to be president of the United States will make it to their election centers to vote for Clinton if they believe Trump is leading in the polls.
It all depends on getting out the vote and very many who have no liking for Clinton will be voting for her because they do not want Trump to be their president.
This poll lead by Trump is unsurprising and likely to grow more Americans learn about the notes from Hillary's FBI interview. For the Good of the Country, to Keep What Tatters of Respect the FBI Still Has, Director Jimmy The Fixer Must Resign Folks who were willing to give Comey a pass are no longer willing to do so after having read the damning evidence. The law binds all or it binds none at all. http://ace.mu.nu/archives/365697.php
actually PPP has a reputation for being a herder. Thats not just me speaking either , here is Nate Silvers view on PPP http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/...y-Polling-the-biggest-herders-in-the-business t’s time to stop worrying about outliers and start worrying about inliers. Earlier this year, my colleague Harry Enten documented evidence of pollster “herding” — the tendency of polling firms to produce results that closely match one another, especially toward the end of a campaign.1 What’s wrong with the polls agreeing with one another? The problem is that it’s sometimes a case of the blind leading the blind... A few pollsters are shameless about their herding. One of them is Public Policy Polling (PPP), an polling firm that conducts automated polls for both public consumption and for liberal and Democratic clients. I will see if I can find the methodology mehind that poll and give it a serious look tommorrow. It could be either a outlier or an indicator of movement of Florida to Trump. Watching the tending of other pools and seeing hiallarys strategy shift today in NC I think it is the latter but that is an uneducated guess until the samples and weighting can be found gotta feeling Comey is laughing his butt off now. Be carefull of what you wish for , sometimes a softball can make you look worse than a fast ball if you miss the swing only thing that gets dems out to vote is a free ride
Isn't Nate Silver the same guy who said Trump had a less than 2% chance of winning the nomination and that Brexit would go down to defeat? Those are two massively blown calls, in just the last year. You posted: Well, first it's not the end of the campaign, we are a good two months from the final polls and this is the first poll in nearly 10, as found in the RCP aggregate to show Trump leading, isn't that pretty much the opposite of herding?
I have no clue about Brexit, I simply did not follow it because of the US elections. But yeah Nate has no Trump love however in the past he has been better than most polling analysts. However as any one with 2 brain cells knows campaigns are fluid, there is a lifetime between now and election day. Any day can flip the coin or start the tsunami before the ballots are counted politically. Polls taken the weekend before the election should be considered but until then all they are good for is trend indicators. Just look at them for the movement, that's what the smart kids do
All fair points. I saw a study somewhere that showed that polls at this point are generally off by about 6 points and the ones right before the election are off by 2-3 points, so you position that they really only show us trend, I think is spot on. I also agree with the idea that events that will likely decide the election probably have not occurred yet and the voters that will make up the difference haven't made up their minds yet. I supported Bernie in the primaries, not that I'm a socialist, not by miles, but he seemed authentic and he handled himself with dignity. I also thought the bond between him and his youthful followers was probably the most authentic expression of the primaries. Trump's phrasing is needlessly provocative, the man is a 70 year old multi-billionaire, its not my job to translate Trumpese into acceptable daily english. But, Crooked Hillary is clearly a crook. She used her Secretary of State position, our 3rd highest executive office for pretty open out-and-out influence peddling, the Clinton Foundation is clearly a dirty money laundry scheme and when she’s called on it she sounds like a Mob Boss attorney only far less believable. I looked over Stein, I thought her offer of her post to Bernie proved beyond a doubt that she isn't in it for her, she is wedded to the cause, and I like that, but they aren't on enough States to win. The other guy, Johnson, just seems like he has smoked way too much pot and he makes very little sense on anything as far as I can tell. As the WSJ noted, the worst scandal in Hillary’s email scandal isn’t what Hillary did — she is a lying crook, we all know that — but rather that the supposedly professional, nonpartisan civil service rolled over for her, and even offered cover, and that's a BIG problem: ~ Even today her former department is still resisting efforts to make public the emails she tried to hide. Groups such as Judicial Watch have done yeoman’s work in forcing the emails into the sunlight—but they have also had to get court orders to pry them out of an obstructionist State Department. It’s a disturbing pattern, and unfortunately it’s not limited to State. There have been similar questions about the integrity and professionalism of the IRS ever since the American people learned in 2013 that it was unfairly targeting conservative groups seeking tax-exempt status. Three years, many congressional hearings and disappearing hard drives later, there is still no evidence the IRS has ended the practice. ~ http://www.wsj.com/articles/even-worse-than-clintons-emails-1473116518 And the FBI and Department of Justice are clearly in the tank an perverting Justice to clear an obvious crook for the same crimes that would land anyone else at least before a Grand Jury. Our civil service is supposed to be professional and nonpartisan but clearly it is an extension of the Democrat Party. Federal employees overwhelmingly vote for Democrats, donate to Democrats, and cover for Democrats as a routine part of doing their job. A weaponized IRS and corrupt FBI and a MSM clearly in the tank for Democrats? Not good! So if the case is between two flawed candidates, clearly the choice must be Trump! If Trump tries to target his enemies with the IRS, the press will scream bloody murder, the AG's with investigate with fervor. If Trump engages in influence-peddling, or abuses secrecy laws, even his own appointees in the DOJ or FBI and the civil service will hang it out on the line rather than sweep it under the rug. If Trump wants to go to war his motives and judgement will be forever questioned and debated, unlike Hillary, who get the quiet pass on everything she does. If Trump had done to Libya, what Barack and Hillary did to Libya, the outcry would still be at crescendo levels. Trump will get healthy hearty scrutiny and skepticism, Crooked Hillary does not. Trump IS the Checks and Balances Candidate. That, simply, is just what this choice comes down to. http://www.usatoday.com/story/opini...-democrat-bias-trump-glenn-reynolds/89929744/
