Lessons From Georgia

Lessons From Georgia

The most important, earth-shattering, stupendous special election of all time (at least according to media) is over. The result is that the Republican beat the Democrat by 3.8%. The media have billed this as a referendum on Trump. If that is the case then Trump is more popular now than ever as he only won the district by 1.5%. Democrats certainly went all in on this election. They spend 50 million on one congressional seat. The most expensive race in history with nothing to show for it. Very similar to the last presidential election if you think about it. With all these well-funded races Democrats do run the danger of exhausting their donor base before the midterms.

There was also another election in South Carolina which was supposed to be an easy win for Republicans but was only won by 3.2%.

For the Democrats

The first question anyone ever asks is why Democrats lost. Make no mistake this was a very winnable race for them. Trump only won the district by 1.5% and previous Democrats running in the district were doing so with almost no funding. So what went wrong?

The Democrats lost the minute they started spending all that money on the district and advertising it as a referendum on Trump. Reports on the ground say the residents were inundated with mail, volunteers and advertisements on tv. People in the area are most likely breathing a sigh of relief now that the torrent is over.

The reason Democrats do all these things they believe in the conventional wisdom that higher turn out benefits Democrats while lower turnout benefits Republicans. The problem with relying on conventional wisdom is that you never take the time to understand why it came about and instead rely on it blindly.

The theory is that Republicans vote no matter what and that Democrats need to be led to the voting booths by hand. This could not be further from the truth in this environment. Democrats are angry. They would have come out to vote whether you spent money or not. Republicans on the other hand are divided between the regular conservatives and the Trumpian nationalists. There is friction between the two as there have been some issues where they have not been able to compromise on. For all intents and purposes Handel was a regular conservative. By making the issue a national referendum on Trump the Democrat strategists forced the nationalists to come out as well and vote for her.

In this environment a lower turnout helps Democrats as they are the side that is more energized. The race in South Carolina is a perfect example. The district was leaned a lot more Republican than the one in Georgia. The turnout was lower so the Democrats did better.

It is very sad that with 50 million the Democrats could not afford better strategists.

For the Republicans

I have a confession to make. I wanted Ossoff to win. I believe Republicans have not figured out that they either hang together or hang separately. An Ossof win would have forced them to learn that.

Luckily the South Carolina contest happened on the same day so we can still learn the same lesson. For better or worse conservatives have to realize that they are not the only ones in the Republican party anymore. Nothing frustrates me more than conservative thinkers like Ben Shapiro refusing to support Trump when he enacts policies that the nationalist faction wants him to enact. I understand that it may not be exactly what you want but having the other members of your coalition there lets more of your people get elected so you do get some of the stuff you want. It is literally a difference between getting some of the things you want and nothing. What Ben Shapiro and the rest have not figured out is if nationalists get nothing from Trump then there is no reason for us to support the Republicans in the future.

The Georgia race should be an object lesson for Republicans. The opponent spent unlimited amounts of money and lost by a bigger margin than Clinton did. The different factions in the party united has the potential to score even greater majorities in 2018.

 

A post by Governor Mike Huckabee today:

 

Show me a link supporting your claim or admit that you are fabricating claims and your posts are misleading from the first sentence.

They didn't win in Newt Gingrich's old district. Hard to imagine!

Why didn't they win? You can't fix stupid voters. Dumb is dumb. What can be said? We're talking about Georgia, after all.

 

With this fourth loss, maybe democrats should think about not pushing their extreme left wing agenda.

 

I live in Georgia and have talked to a couple old Republicans who view the 7 time party switcher Trump as an interloper and not a real Republican. The old line Reagan was once a Democrat, but also switched is met with a laugh. Yeah, they say, Reagan did switch, once and then for a lifetime remained a loyal Repubican. Not seven times. Fact is there are Republicans, conservatives who don't believe Trump is one of them. We have a Republican Governor in Nathan Deal who once was a Democrat himself. He switched once. Switching is a good thing, at least according to them. Switching once and remaining loyal. Not going back and forth.

Divisions are still there. They will support whom they call the opportunist when it suits them and their cause, but there is no way they will throw themselves under the bus for Trump. Trump made enemies during the primaries with his creation of numerous feuds with other Republicans, lifelong republicans and all his name calling. It seems to some, down here in Georgia, that hasn't been forgotten or forgiven.

Handel won because she was a lifelong republican, former Republican Secretary of State and before that a Fulton County commissioner. They came out to vote for her, to give her their support, but not necessarily for Trump. I think that will be shown the closer we get to the midterm elections. Keep watch.

 

Has anyone noticed the very subtle change in NBC news recently? As in it hasn't been nearly as hysterical in the last week or so as they have been for the last 6 months? Just an observation. Perhaps it has something to do with their lagging viewership.....

 

^^^^ This is why democrats are having a difficult time these days. Bigotry. They hold every-day Americans in contempt.

 

This is what happens when you poke that slumbering mainstream deplorable bear one time too many.

 

I have very much noticed that the vitriolic non-stop anti-Trump rhetoric has toned down several decibels ever since that left-wing nut job shot up the republican baseball game. Maybe they have taken notice at the violence the their vile 24/7 propaganda has sparked in their leftist audience.

 

I completely agree, but would add Bill O'Reilly and Bob Beckel not being on FOX any more and some drama with advertisers of Sean Hannity has toned down some of the rhetoric on the other side too.

Also, when Mueller took over the Russia investigation, lots of speculative talk, and the response to speculative talk slowed.

It needed to tone down on both sides. It shouldn't have taken a shooting to do it, but toning down needed to happen.

 

The Fail Boat has arrived.

GA-6 is one of the most educated districts in the nation. It's actually the 6th most educated district.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/19/...-explains-why-georgias-election-is-close.html

That's the New York Times, mind you.

 

Face it folks. The Marxist Democrats of today have absolutely *NO* message to take to the people. Ossof had nothing to offer other than conservative fiscal policies because the party has no message.

If the Marxist Democrats recruit conservative candidates for every race in 2018 what are they going to say to the people to get votes? "Resist!"? "Trump colluded with the Russians!"?

What kind of job growth policies are they going to offer? Higher taxes? More class warfare? Higher regulatory burdens? Men in women's bathrooms?

What kind of economic growth policies are they going to offer? Open borders? Taxing foreign earnings kept overseas?

Are they going to campaign against defense spending in the face of the ME, NK, Iran, China, and Russia?

Are they going to campaign for single-pay health insurance after the failure of Obamacare?

Are they going to campaign for banning semi-automatic rifles and against concealed carry?

The Marxist Democrats have painted themselves into a corner. If they campaign for smaller government, less regulation, and more individual freedom the GOP will eat them alive as being late to the game!

Really? What message are they going to use?

 

Ok-----------------it was a referendum on Trump, and Trump won. The radical left democrats lost. A win win!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

That's an interesting observation. I turned on the Today Show expecting them to barely mention the Georgia race and instead, they dealt with it head on. Previous experience with these special elections that they've touted as the most important one ever has taught me if the Dems lose it disappears from the headlines, but the Today Show actually dealt with it.

Color me surprised.

 

It's ALWAYS a momentous achievement right up until Democrats lose. Then they get memory loss and forget it was ever
important.

 

Perhaps.

 

And they'd be right. As you know, that has always been at the core of my opposition to Trump. Put aside for a moment his absolutely ghastly childlike behavior and his inability to keep his mouth shut. He isn't a real Republican. It isn't realistic to think at 65 years old he all of a sudden decided that the Republican platform was great. He decided he was a Republican when he saw the opening. He knew there were millions of people who wanted to talk about nothing but Mexicans, Mooslims, guns, erasing the legacy of the black guy, and a bunch of platitudes. He declared himself a Republican because he knew he could win over these people. And he did.

They all turned on Megyn Kelly when she asked him the question clear thinking Republicans wanted to know. Trump lashed out at her, his loyalists followed along, and the rest is sad history.

 

You ask silly questions. This election was an all out attempt to discredit Trump and you know it. Stop with the show me the links crap. The democrat party threw everything they had into defeating Handel. The media painted this as the election so important it could, and should lead to the impeachment of Trump.
Lessons learned.
Never underestimate the strength and support for President Trump.
If you expect to win , don't bring in a carpetbagger candidate who couldn't decide if he wanted to run as a moderate, conservative, progressive or socialist.
Keep Nancy Pelosi locked in the birdcage where she belongs.
Please never allow "celebrities" to make and air hundreds of television commercials and ads telling the people of that district who they should put in office.
Stop believing in polls where the pollster always over samples the democrats.

 

If Trump ran as a conventional republican, he'd be sitting back at home like the rest of 20 others who ran as conventional check the boxes type conservatives.

 

I had seen this aspect as a positive for Trump. Naively thinking that, since he was a democrat previously, that he may appeal to, or at least be somewhat palatable to, center-left democrats, and be able to sow some middle ground with them.

As a side observation, it is odd and confusing to hear one democrat say that Trump is a far-right extremist, and the next point out that he's not really a republican because he was formerly a democrat.

 

i remember in the 2016 election there was speculation georgia would turn blue. Now all the democrats say they never had a shot and just felt like pissing away 50 million : )

 

Well it's also like the "Trump has no chance, Hillary's by far the best candidate" liberals (tons on this board) who are now saying "She wasn't the best candidate. She had too much baggage."

 

This way I figure it, a guesstamate, Trump's solid or avid supports probably make up no more than 30% of the total electorate. There's no way to be certain. But 30% isn't going to win many elections. What I think most folks missed was in the beginning Ossoff made the GA-6 election all about Trump. Then about 2 week left before the voting the Republicans turned it into a referendum on Pelosi. That was a very smart move. Those Republicans who would have stayed home if GA-6 was all about Trump, went to the polls when it became about Pelosi.

You mentioned Trump looking for an opportunity. Perhaps he always wanted to run for the presidency. Trump was a Democrat until Bill Clinton and then switched to the Republican Party. In 2000 Trump became a member of my reform party and ran for the nomination of it. During Bush II, Trump was a Democrat again and switch back to Republican during Obama. Always being a member of the party out of power. Proves nothing, but does get one to think.

 

No one knows what Trump is and I doubt Trump himself knows. He's whatever is convenient to him at the time. Here's his party history.

For the record
Until 1987 Trump was a Democrat
From 1987-1999 he was a Republican
In 1999 Trump became an Independent
2000 to 2001 Trump was a member of the Reform Party
2001 to 2009 he was a Democrat again
2009 to 2011 he became a Republican
2011 to 2012 Trump was a registered Independent
2012 to present he became a Republican again.

 

I suppose that they could simply be attempting to distance themselves from the poo they now find themselves covered in given their breathless hysterical reporting prior to the actual results...