Spain Will Remove Catalonia Leader, Escalating Secession Crisis

The most recent surveys show separatists in Catalonia will fall short of a majority (just barely). Both factions (separatists and constitutionalists) are quite close. The survey shows Ciudadanos (constitutionalists) have gained the most since the previous elections, conservative PP lost the most. Separatists Esquerra and Junts per Catalunya (which together were Junts Pel Si) neither gain nor lose.

Catalonian politics are confusing. Barcelona elects 85 of the regional government's seats and has its own political parties, it also features traditional abstentionism and poor neighborhoods with substantial populations of immigrants (from other parts of Spain and elsewhere) who have no sympathy for separatism.

Most surveys suggest there will be higher levels of participation in this election (above 80%) and that the surge will be mostly non-separatists.

 

Latest is that the CUP (anarchic anti-establishment separatists) will boycott the Govern unless it is affirmatively pro-unilateral independence. Problem is that the other separatists may add up to 62 delegates, CUP maybe could get 5 and a majority requires 68. If the surveys are correct, CUP could become "kingmaker" and condition it's support to the designated President declaring independence, so we'd get an instant replay.

 

Here's more:

 

In a vote for Catalonia’s regional assembly, pro-independence parties won a majority of seats, taking 70 out of 135.

Yes, but this was by 3 parties, Puigdemont´s Esquerra took 34 seats, PDeCat got 32 and the CUP 4. The three are indeed separatists, but they don´t completely agree. CUP said it would boycott a government not committed to unilaterally declaring independence like Esquerra proposes, PDeCat wants to negotiate and they´re unhappy with Puigdemont´s exclusive list to fill cabinet positions.

There will be some negotiating and we´ll see what comes out, but it is dubious the separatists will come together to create a government that unilaterally declares independence again, since that triggered the dissolution of their government already.

Additionally, the separatists now know their unilateral bid would not be well received, I don´t think they realized the EU, UN and every sovereign in the world would reject their claim and not recognize them. Now they know a successful bid for independence will require at least Spanish cooperation.

 

Arrimadas, the leader of Ciudadanos (37 seats) doesn’t want to seek appointment as president of the regional government as she anticipates being unable to form a coalition government and prefers to avoid the foreseeable erosion of popular support due to this inability.

The PP (which only has 4 seats) criticizes Arrimadas’ resistance to attempting a coalition, but even if one added all the non-separatists, they are just 65 votes (68 are needed for a majority). I think the PP is critical just because they would like to see some erosion of Ciudadanos’ popularity (they picked up most of the votes PP lost).

Presumably separatist Esquerra will try to form the coalition government, they are unilateral enough to secure anti-establishmentarian CUP’s 4 miserable votes, but they would need to do some serious dickering to get at least 30 more votes from the more moderately separatist PDeCat.

This may become a problem because traditionally votes to form a coalition government are obtained by offering cabinet positions to the coalition minority partners, but in this case Puigdemont (who still claims to be president and campaigned for Esquerra -has a complete list of irredentist separatists for his cabinet, so no dickering.

 

They’re stuck!

A reminder to those following the play; Esquerra is the less radical of the three separatist factions, their leader is former vice-president Oriol Junqueras in jail awaiting trial for sedition -and other charges), this party came in third with about 32 delegates; "JxCat" is Puigdemont's party, they came in second with about 34 delegates (Puigdemont is in exile, charged with sedition -and other crimes), this party seeks unilateral separatism; Carme Forcadell leads another separatist-associated party affiliated with "JxCat", who is out on bail charged with sedition thanks to her promise not to pursue separatism (she was probably the most vociferous political advocate for a unilateral declaration of independence immediately after the referendum). Catalonian separatists come in varying hues depending on the level of their forcefulness, "JxCat" (Junts per Catalunya) is the latest iteration of a coalition of fairly radical factions which has changed names 6 times over the past decade. CUP is the most radical separatist faction, this plainly anti-establishmentarian party won 4 seats in the election and is essential to form a governing separatist government coalition. Finally, conservative anti-independence party Ciudadanos, which prevailed in the election, has 37 seats in the new regional government, but couldn't assemble enough delegates in a coalition with all other non-separatists (socialist PSC, radical lefty Podemos and center right PP).

 

Predictably, regional election winner Ines Arrimadas from Ciudadanos cannot integrate a coalition to govern Catalonia. Her party’s conservativism makes it an unattractive ally to the socialists (PSC) with which they only share opposition to independence, and the also conservative PP doesn’t want to appear co-opted by Ciudadanos to which they lost a substantial amount of votes in the regional election.

This leaves the separatists (Esquerra, JxCat and CUP) to form a governing coalition, but they’ve got problems of their own:

With JxCat’s Puigdemont in self-imposed exile (to avoid incarceration for sedition –and other things), and Esquerra’s Oriol Junqueras held in preventive detention pending trial on the same charges (because he will not renounce a unilateral declaration of independence), it seems new elections in Catalonia will be necessary –unless they can agree on a substitute for president.

CUP (which has 4 delegates –enough to make them essential in forming a separatist majority) has reiterated they won’t support a non-unilateralist separatist for president. They demand Puigdemont sincerely explain how he intends to bring about an independent Catalonian republic, before they decide if they will form part of the new Govern.

There appear to be 2 obstacles; the immediate problem is that the designation of regional president requires physical presence and Puigdemont won’t return as he fears arrest; the other problem is that to outline a plan for unilateral independence exposes participants to prosecution under the same charges the ousted regional government now face.

I think Arrimadas should announce she’s unable to form a governing coalition and call for another election, but set it for about 6 months from now so contenders can clearly articulate their approach. Rajoy should maintain the application of Article 155, and the authorities in Madrid need to stress absolute intolerance for any unilateral separatist campaigning.

What happens if at the next regional election separatists gain even more votes? Then Rajoy maintains Article 155 and terminates the regional government again, they can replay until everyone realizes unilateral independence is not an option for the region.

 

Proxy votes for Oriol Junqueras, Joaquim Forn and Jordi Sanchez:

The absolute irredentists:

 

Here's more:

 

The presidential appointment is to take place by the end of the month, so they’ve “kicked the can down the road" another couple of weeks to see if arrangements can be made to reinstall Puigdemont.

I think Puigdemont and his supporters need to gather some intelligence, consider the options, determine whether it is preferable to have Madrid maintain Article 155 and oust the newly elected separatists again, or designate a more moderate successor to Puigdemont.

 

“Liquid Independence”:

We think, like Ataturk, that sovereignty is definite and “solid”. Only when it’s advocates are willing to sacrifice their lives in achieving it, until then it must be in flux, “liquid” as Bauman suggests of contemporary relationships, no timetables, deadlines or milestones, an aspiration that will always confront the insurmountable walls of the State.[/quote]

 

Detail how we are "moving more and more towards a fascist police state".

I'd like some specificity here, ya know some fine points, perhaps a little comparison between now and then, maybe a little listing of the particulars.

You've been called out now rise up.

 

Rajoy is not at all applying fascist tactics in Catalonia, Madrid has been quite tolerant, understanding and accommodating towards the region's separatists for decades. The whole process of devolution towards autonomy goes back to Franco's passing in 1975. The Generalisimo was a patriot like all military, he fought for 3 years to defeat the communist republic and unify Spain, then opposed anything promoting division, national unity was very important for his government.

After Franco died, the transitional government quickly negotiated the institution of democratic procedures and institutions and the government was confronted immediately with demands to restore regional communities whose differences had been suppressed. Madrid encouraged processes to acknowledge historical claims and recover regional institutions.

Spanish municipalities were governed by local laws in the Middle Ages, these would be the rules of feudal lords who conquered, expanded and consolidated fiefdoms into regional monarchies, which were unified in 1492. Successive kings gradually centralized the Kingdom of Spain and the various regional institutions withered away. After Franco Madrid promoted the restoration of historical regional institutions and in many cases scholars from various regions were able to reestablish ancient courts that had regulated irrigation, trades, markets and other elements of medieval municipal government -these formed the basis for claims of regional autonomy. Madrid easily recognized these claims and transferred authority to these institutions which were consolidated under regional Statutes of Autonomy.
The Spanish Constitution, actually approved by referendum in 1978 (with 92% in support and massive turnout) established in Article 147:

The Constitution established 3 paths towards autonomy; Article 143 for non-historical communities which had never voted on their regional statutes during the Second Republic (Canary and Balearic islands, Asturias, Rioja, Cantabria and Murcia), Article 151 for historical communities (Andalusia, Catalonia, Basque territory and Galicia); and Article 144 for exceptional cases (Alava, Guipuzcua, Vizcaya and Navarre, as well as the African enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla).

Spain's 17 regionally autonomous communities are granted authority to regulate themselves to the degree they desire, most have not claimed claimed law enforcement authority (the Basques and Catalonia have), many have limited autonomy in education and healthcare.

 

Some claim it was Esquerra’s radicalism that led to Puigdemont’s brief unilateral declaration of independence in Barcelona on October 27, and his refusal to call for elections when application of Article 155 was threatened. However, Esquerra has opted for a more moderate tack in light of the consequences of judicial processes pending over it’s leaders.

The radical difference in approach was evident within hours of the secessionist proclamation with Puigdemont fleeing to Belgium while Esquerra’s leader and regional vice-president Oriol Junqueras opted to submit to the authorities anticipating incarceration. The same moderation was evident when Esquerra’s Carme Forcadell, summoned to court, assured she would abide by the Constitution and renounced unilateralism. Later Puigdemont denounced European decadence and called for Catalonia’s removal from the EU.

Likely Esquerra anticipated winning the elections by adopting a less radical position, evidently Puigdemon’t radicalism had more support, but with the election over, Esquerra isn’t hitching it’s wagon to JxCat’s more radical course as they see Puigdemont trapped by the contradictions of his radicalism.

The newly appointed president of regional parliament and delegate from Gerona, Roger Torrent, is of Esquerra, and has resited pressure from Puigdemont’s designated cabinet members, he has not gone to Brussels, the radical anti-establishmentarian CUP described Torrent’s appointment speech as “autonomist” (not separatist enough) and threatened support for the separatist coalition if this moderation holds.

We will need to see whether Esquerra’s apparent moderation will be maintained in the controversial regional government’s upcoming sessions. The first test will involve interpreting their own rules over whether Puigdemont can be appointed president from Brussels, if the other exiled delegates will be allowed to vote by proxy and if the regional government somehow endorses Puigdemont’s claim of legislative immunity.

The regional government’s attorneys have already determined the existing regulations do not allow appointment by teleconference, JxCat says their views are not binding, it remains to be seen how Torrent interprets them. Esquerra is not showing it’s cards until the presidential appointment session when we can anticipated heated confrontations if Puigdemont is allowed to debate remotely and votes in his support include those of the exiled delegates.

Esquerra’s delegate, Ernest Maragall, warned the regional government to weigh costs and benefits in the appointment of Puigdemont as president. In Maragall’s view “Catalonia is above any individual”, and this is why he urged to “exit the vicious circle of repression. We don’t need any more martyrs and it would be a bad decision for the regional government to opt for an institutional blocade”. https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2018/01/20/actualidad/1516478031_907004.html

 

The office of Spain’s chief prosecutor announced if it is confirmed Puigdemont travels to Copenhagen on Monday (to participate in a debate organized by the Political Sciences Department of the Univeristy there), it will ask the court reissue the warrant for his arrest an extradition by Danish authorities.

On December 5 Justice Llarena withdrew the international warrant against Puigdemont (and 4 former Catalonian Cabinet members) over concerns their extradition could be conditioned by Belgium as their penal code does not describe “sedition”.

Marti Arge, a leader of the Faroe Islands independence movement and one of the organizers of Puigdemont’s Danish visit, announced Puigdemont would also meet at the Danish Parliament with several legislators. http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2018/01/21/5a64867346163f673c8b46a7.html

 

The countdown continues and Esquerra maintains resistance to comply with JxCat’s efforts Puigdemont be “reinstated”. The latest argument advanced is a claim for legislative immunity to guarantee Puigdemont’s return without risk of arrest advanced by JxCat’s spokesperson, Elsa Artadi.

Government attorneys indicated the charges for rebellion, sedition and misappropriation against Puigdemont pre-date his newly acquired condition as elected delegate and candidate for regional president, thus legislative immunity could not protect him. http://www.elmundo.es/cataluna/2018/01/20/5a6310a122601dcf338b46a7.html

 

The president of the Catalonian parliament, Roger Torrent, has proposed Puigdemont for regional president. He announced he will meet Puigdemont and five other exiled elected regional delegates in Brussels as well as former vice-president and elected delegate Oriol Junqueras and the three elected regional delegates who are in jail.

Puigdemont has gone to Denmark to participate in a debate at Copenhagen University as the court in Spain rejected the prosecutor’s request the warrant for his arrest reissue.

Several scenarios on whether Puigdemont will be able to become regional president again:

He could attend the regional parliamentary appointment session in person, though he would be arrested and incarcerated, or return before the appointment session to be arrested and then request the judge allow him to attend the parliamentary session.

JxCat claims Puigdemont has legislative immunity, but the prosecutor’s office says this doesn’t grant him impunity for crimes perpetrated prior to the assumption of office. Puigdemont was regional president when he committed the crimes he is now charged with, but his term was suspended as a consequence and it is for the court to determine whether he should be convicted of the charges brought.

The regional government or any of the parties in parliament could ask the Constitutional Court to suspend the regional parliamentary appointment session due to the candidate’s indictment, but it is unlikely the Constitutional Court would do so as Puigdemont has not been convicted.

Article 4.3 of the Law of the Presidency of the Generalitat requires “the proposed candidate present his or her program for government to the parliament and request a vote of confidence, and after debate of the program a vote be taken.” If the separatists persist in teleconferencing Puigdemont’s appearance, this will breach the regional government’s own laws and it is expected members of the opposition will impugn the proceedings. With the separatist majority the appointment session could proceed despite the opposition’s protest, but then they may appeal to the Constitutional Court which would determine whether the breach of the regional government’s own laws was unconstitutional.

If the appointment session was deemed unconstitutional due to teleconferencing, Article 67.3 of the aforementioned Law would apply and the regional government would have 2 months to appoint a president who could appear in person.

This is what Esquerra appears to prefer and it would provoke friction among the separatists. JxCat would like to present a candidate from their party, while Esquerra would expect that with Puigdemont’s incapacity Junqueras should be president. Though Junqueras is in jail, he could be released to appear in the regional parliament, it is even possible Judge Llarena would grant Junqueras probation as he did the former cabinet members who did not flee (except Joaquim Forn).

Article 67.3 further establishes that “if after two months no candidate is elected president, then the regional parliament automatically is dissolved and the acting president will call for elections to take place in forty to sixty days.” In this case it would be a replay with Rajoy in Madrid scheduling new regional elections as Article 155 was maintained.

Criminal proceedings against Puigdemont would continue even if the separatists in parliament elected him in absentia and the opposition failed to impugn the process. By April the prosecution will have gathered the evidence and be ready to proceed, by October the Court will begin hearings. Sentencing imprisonment is likely given the charges. Then the region would become ungovernable and under the aforementioned law elections could be called a year after the last one.
https://politica.elpais.com/politica...74_189855.html

 

Puigdemont may not even have enough votes!

Even if the opposition was willing to allow Puigdemont to debate via teleconferencing, he might not have enough votes in parliament to be elected. His party (JxCat) and Esquerra, have 58 delegates and 8 more are either in ‘exile’ or prison. Even with the 4 delegates from the radical CUP, the separatists would only have 62 delegates present in parliament. This would prevent Puigdemont’s election as all non-separatist delegates from Ciudadanos, PSC, Catalunya En Comú-Podem and PP have said they would vote against Puigdemont and they add up to 65 delegates.

However, the separatists could add three more votes, those of the delegates in jail which Supreme Court Judge Llarena has authorized to vote by proxy (former vice-pressident and Esquerra party leader Oriol Junqueras, Jordi Sànchez and Joaquim Forn). Thus the separatists could tally 65 votes (the same number as in the opposition). With a tie, Puigdemont could not get elected, the votes of the 5 ‘exiled’ delegates in Brussels are then essential.

JxCat and Esquerra have requested the regional parliament authorize proxy voting by the delegates in ‘exile’ (Puigdemont and former cabinet members Clara Ponsatí, Lluís Puig, Toni Comín and Meritxell Serret). This is a matter for Torrent to decide, if he allows their proxy vote Puigdemont can be elected, but would go against Judge Llarena’s determination only the incarcerated delegates could vote by proxy.

The separatists may prefer to avoid antagonizing the Court and compel those 5 ‘exiled’ delegates to resign so their places can be filled by others on Puigdemont’s list. He needs 68 votes, so three in Brussels would need to step down (assuming he can count on the CUP’s 4 delegates). So far only Lluis Puig has indicated a willingness to resign.

Catalonian presidential election procedure allows a second vote when a candidate fails to secure an absolute majority with at least 68 votes, then only 66 votes are required. The Separatists could accomplish this with the resignation and substitution of just a single ‘exiled’ delegate (perhaps Lluis Puig).

diputado. https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2018/01/21/actualidad/1516560824_884295.html

 

Jailed former Conseller for the interior, Joaquim Forn, has renounced his seat as a delegate from Barcelona for JxCat. Forn was number 7 on Puigdemont’s list and formerly was responsible for the regional police.

This former Conseller was one of the former members of the Govern to accompany Puigdemont in his flight into exile. He stayed a few days in Belgium, but then returned to comply with the summons from Spanish authorities, charged with sedition, rebellion and misappropriation of funds, he was held as a flight risk.

JxCat will now be able to replace Forn with someone not implicated in the failed separatist bid (but just as committed) from Puigdemont’s list. Likely Forn estimated his chances of regaining freedom depended on a more non-committal stance and his resignation will enable the irrendentist separatists to form a more determined political base.

Judge Llarena had authorized Forn’s proxy vote, so this development does not affect my tally of votes for Puigdemont as whoever substitutes Forn is expected to vote for Puigdemont as well, this just adds certainty (as Forn might have moderated to curry the court’s favor).
El ex conseller Joaquim Forn renuncia a su acta de diputado para intentar ser excarcelado | cataluna

 

Madrid today initiated filings to bring a claim in the Constitutional Court against the possible election of Puigdemont as Catalonian regional president since Torrent has proposed his nomination. The legal argument is based on Puigdemont’s legal status as an indicted criminal with an outstanding warrant for his arrest precludes his participation in the regional government’s presidential election process. Thus Madrid will demand the Constitutional Court suspend Torrent’s proposing of Puigdemont for regional president.

Spain’s vice-president, Soraya Saenz de Santamaria announced president Rajoy had signed the request for the Council of State report on the matter, which is a pre-condition to filing a claim with the Constitutional Court, that is expected to be done tomorrow.

Until now, Madrid had opted to await developments in Catalonia seeking the best way to prevent Puigdemont’s appointment as regional president. With Torrent’s decision to propose Puigdemont for president, Madrid appreciates the requisite elements to bring a claim are present as Puigdemont lacks freedom to appear anywhere in Spain and this is incompatible with his election as regional president. As Saenz de Santamaria noted, Puigdemont’s inability to be freely present in Spain is evident as Torrent had to go to Brussels rather than meet with the candidate at the regional government.

Madrid has also asked the Council of State to indicate if a candidate for regional president may be elected in absentia, and whether regional delegates indefinitely outside Spain may vote by proxy, with the attendant question in either case, whether this may be challenged in the Constitutional Court.

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2018/01/25/5a69c1d8ca4741246a8b45b1.html

As I commented when this whole thing started it would be a rather bureaucratic process, suppression of Catalonian secession would not be something done by the military or even the police, it will be resolved using the law, applying regulations and following judicial processes. In this specific case the Catalonian region’s equivalent to a constitution specifically precludes both the appointment of an absent president and his election by proxy, naturally so as that would be rather undemocratic. The Spanish Constitution requires this country uphold every region’s charter which is what Rajoy will do.

 

Rajoy sidelined Ciudadanos in decision to impugn Puigdemont’s candidacy as regional president. Rajoy’s PP government in Madrid consulted and agreed with just the socialist PSOE, to initiate proceedings to challenge the candidacy of Puigdemont. According to vice-president Saenz de Santamaria, Rajoy only consulted those who approached him on the matter and these were members of his own party, from the PSOE and the Catalonian socialists (PSC).

Sources at the PSOE confirmed their Secretary General, Pedro Sánchez, and Mariano Rajoy had met to discuss and agreed on the steps announced by the vice-president. These sources categorically stated “the PSOE supports the measures undertaken by the executive.”

Just a few days ago, at an event in Seville, Sanchez anticipated the PSOE’s support for any steps the Rajoy Administration might take with the Constitutional Court “to safeguard legality in Catalonia”.
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Yet there was no meeting or agreement with Ciudadanos on this matter, nor any communication between Rajoy and Ciudadanos’ leadership on this. Ciudadanoshad already indicated the need to bring the matter of Puigdemont’s candidacy in absentia as well as the proxy votes from exiled delegates to the attention of the Constitutional Court, so their support for this move may have been taken for granted.

This is the first substantive decision on the Catalonian issue which Madrid has not consulted and agreed with both the PSOE and Ciudadanos, breaching the practice until now among the “constitutionalists” which have been in solidarity on applying Article 155 after Puigdemont’s unilateral declaration of independence.

Independencia de Cataluña: El Gobierno lleva al Constitucional la candidatura de Puigdemont para presidir la Generalitat

I don’t know if sidelining Ciudadanos is such a good idea, they did get the most votes in Catalonia’s latest election, the party originated there and is insignificant in Madrid, they got massive support from former PP voters in the region and it seems the PP in Madrid thinks they are a threat. Ideologically Ciudadanos is centrist-left, while PP is a bit more conservative. Ciudadanos is totally opposed to Catalonian separatism, just as PP (and the socialists)

 

Unanimously confirmed:

The Constitutional Court began it’s extraordinary session to consider the filing by the Spanish government against the election of Puigdemont. In addition to the Council of State’s rejection of Madrid’s claim, the Justices seem also opposed as they don’t see the urgency (in fact the claim seems premature).

Today’s hearing won’t get into the substance, it is merely to verify strict compliance with whatever prerequisites, and in most cases the review is perfunctory, formal requisites easily satisfied, but in this case the magistrates appear to have doubts.

During Chief Justice Francisco Pérez de los Cobos’ tenure, and now under that of Juan José González Rivas, the Constitutional Court has maintained unanimity on matters relating to Catalonia and would prefer to maintain this practice, however sources now suspect this trend will be broken in this case.

The key issue is the admission which would require the regional presidential election assembly be suspended. For this reason the Court needs to consider what consequences result beyond the internal procedures of the regional parliament. If the regional assembly gathers to consider Puigdemont’s candidacy despite the Constitutional Court’s order annulling this candidate’s election, all participants would be explicitly engaged in disobedience, rebellion and sedition.

The Court agreed as Madrid sought, to send an urgent notice personally to Torrent warning of the criminal consequences for not abiding by their determination.

The Court needs to consider the alternatives legally available; whether Puigdemont may appear and debate his program of government by teleconferencing, as well as if he and the other ‘exiled’ delegates may vote by proxy, without breaching the regional Statute of Autonomy (Catalonia’s constitution) or that of Spain.

Though Madrid expresses certitude Puigdemont will not attend the regional assembly for his election, and establishes how his physical presence is essential under the law, it is also true the candidate could attend or return in advance to submit to face the charges. If he suddenly appeared at the regional assembly for his election, Spanish police would immediately arrest him and then he could not present his program or participate in it’s debate, and I don’t think he could be elected (due to incapacity). If Puigdemont opted for an anticipated return to submit to the authorities, it is possible the Supreme Court would release him to participate in the regional assembly for his election (there is precedent of this).

 

JxCat Delegate and former Conseller Josep Rull said that Puigdemont will request Judge Llanera authorize his appearance at the Catalonian regional assembly presidential election session. This request follows the Constitutional Court’s decision foreclosing any alternative other than that Puigdemont surrender to the authorities and then seek permission to attend the election proceedings.

“President Puigdemont will do what the Constitutional Court says and request permission to attend, but this is a legal fraud”, Rull said in an interview. He noted "the priority is to get Puigdemont appointed in a complicated context because in Spain the separation of powers is affected and has been breached.” Rull considered the Constitutional Court’s determination yesterday to be “without basis in an organized, foreseeable, solid and standardized European legal system.”

According to Rull, “the problem isn’t the people of Catalonia, separatists or Puigdemont, the serious problem is Spain’s democracy and the Spanish people." He described the Constitutional Court’s decision as “a slap in the face" to Spanish vice-president Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, whom he said should resign because the Court rejected her government’s efforts to prevent the regional electoral assembly and allowed this assembly to proceed and vote.

Eduard Pujol, spokesman for JxCat said "there is no 'plan B'”, that "the separatists would not designate any other candidate as a substitute for Puigdemont", he characterized the Constitutional Court’s decision forbidding Puigdemont’s appearance by teleconference as “the demolition of the state of law”.

Esquerra’s delegate in the Spanish legislature, Joan Tarda, warned that if necessary to establish the Govern, they’d have to sacrifice Puigdemont. He defended the separatist goal to elect Puigdemont and have Oriol Junqueras as vice-president, but found that the priority would be to have a Govern. Tarda maintained they shouldn’t jeopardize their majority in the elections, that Puigdemont is Esquerra’s candidate, but “it is essential we have a separatist Govern.” He was concerned that the application of Article 155 would be maintained if a regional president could not be elected to form the Govern.

http://www.elmundo.es/cataluna/2018/01/28/5a6d95b5e2704ef06c8b465d.html

On Tuesday we will see what happens. Maybe Judge Llarena will grant Puigdemont's request, but I don't think so. Puigdemont still has time to return, surrender and then ask to be released to attend the election proceedings, but by Monday it will be too late. He could just show up, get arrested and hauled away in a scandalous riot (over 3,000 Spanish police have been already deployed around the regional parliament building). If Puigdemont did evade arrest and was able to appear, present his program and debate in the election proceedings he would need to bring along the other 4 'exiled' delegates to have the necessary votes. They ought to select a substitute for president, but Puigdemont strongly seeks "reinstatement", this has political significance. The CUP says it won't vote in a proceeding dictated by the Constitutional Court. The separatists won't legally have the votes of the five 'exiled' delegates in Brussels and the Court says they can't vote by proxy (their votes are essential for the separatist majority).

 

It's like a trainwreck in slow motion.

 

I look forward to the EU doing nothing to help solve this issue.