Millennials say no to kids, population 'replacement level' turns negative

You can't change this trend if wages stay stagnant and college is prohibitively expensive. Millennials can do this math. It takes three job incomes to rent an apartment and take care of the bills with one kid. That means a couple and a roommate with a job and that means three bedrooms. This is not cheap and its precarious if you have to depend on a roomie to make that rent and buy diapers.

 

You can't change this trend without becoming a different kind of society.

College isn't expensive because people are greedy, college is expensive because college is expensive. There's a reason it was once reserved for the upper crest of society.

Now, this isn't necessarily a permanent fact. Some predict that higher education can be made cheaper and more efficient in the digital age. It remains to be seen.

But the cost of college is only one factor. Another is the sheer amount of time a person takes to become productive. Where people were once productive members of the economy as children, they now often don't become so until their mid-20s. This alone has multiplied the cost of having children.

 

I was under the impression that, after welfare reform, the flow of money to poor parents DOES NOT currently increase on a per child basis but is a hard limited dollar amount on a per family basis.

There are NO welfare queens popping out babies to hit the jackpot.

 

The economy defines 'productive' differently because human capital is less necessary in a post industrial cyber world, and the pool of labor is without international boarders. . That is why buying power is stagnant

 

Human capital is never "necessary" in some mathematical sense. It is useful because people want things from each other. This isn't going to change. What has changed is precisely what it is that people can offer one another. More and more, providing economic benefits to other people requires a good education and interpersonal skills.

For this reason, people enter the labor force later than ever before. This makes children a burden for a longer period of time than before. I'm somewhat ashamed to admit that I was a burden on my parents until my early 20s. I know people who remain so for much longer.

This long-term economic reality has manifested itself culturally. Whereas it was once unusual for a person to not get married or have children, and could lead to social ostracism, now I'm nearing my late 20s with no wife and no children and no one bats an eye, except for my grandparents.

But the bottom line is that as the economy comes to require a different kind of work force, and people continue to demand a certain standard of living, populations will contract.

Because peoples/nations of mostly European and East Asian descent have been ahead of the curve economically this arrested our demographics in a more severe way than those of other nations. Combine this with the bloody nightmare Europe and East Asia made of themselves in the 20th century and you see a world that is completely different than it was a century ago.

This scares many people, and understandably so. Native Americans faced a demographic swamping, and their culture came to be dominated or destroyed by those who swamped it.

The result is that racism is going to be a worse problem going forward. Especially in Europe.

We have our problems over here, but they pale in comparison. As I've said, populations on this side of the pond will stabilize at a level closer to the status quo. Over there, though, the imbalance has already flipped, and is growing at a much faster rate.

 

Australia is fast becoming the only hope for a White homeland due to its geographical isolation. Within a generation St Paul's and Notre Dame will be turned into mosques..........'Camp or the Saints'........it was predicted 40 years ago. WWII destroyed the White race and all it has bestowed on mankind.........

 

You need to move there then. Goodbye.........

 

Even if I were concerned with the idea of a "White homeland," you're incorrect. Entire swathes of North America and probably most of Europe will remain majority white going into the 22nd century. Further, one of the regions of the world still expanding demographically is Southeast Asia, right next to Australia. Also likely to get hit hard by climate change? South and Southeast Asia. Australia will face the same pressure to a greater extent than even Europe.

EDIT: As a sidenote, even Latin America is very white genetically, and Mexico is at the "whiter" side of that gradient. Genetically, North America will be dominated by European genes. And the same will probably remain true in Europe, but it's going to be a much more painful process there.

I don't see why. It seems more likely to me that the long-term trend of sub-Saharan immigration to Europe will re-Christianize rather than de-Christianize Western Europe. The current wave has such a massive North/West African and Arab component. The long-term trend favors immigration from further south and east.

Well, at least you have a sense of history, even if I sense racism in your words. In 1900 Europeans and White Americans were almost 5 times more numerous than Africans and Black Americans. The economic reality hasn't caught up, but is getting there. Unless disaster strikes (and I imagine it will), the trend will have completely inverted itself, with African peoples being 5 times more numerous.

 

Other relevant threads:
Young adults today: No school, no job, living at home with mom and dad
Difficult Job Market for the Young
shortage of affordable housing for young adults
Rising number of overdoses amid dim job prospects for Millenials
factors that affect fertility rates
Japan: young not getting married, not in relationship, not having sex
The White Replacement rate doesn't look good

 

Here is a good map to get a sense of just how much things have changed over the last 100 years.

http://brilliantmaps.com/worlds-population-in-1900/

 

No thanks.......the flight is a bit too long. I'm good hunkered down in my mostly White area. It's just sad that most White children being born today will not have that privilege...... and will be victims of constant ethnic violence and intimidation. Meanwhile, White DNA, which has created most of the science, inventions, medicines, etc that propelled humankind forward will be gradually extinguished. We can't avoid another Dark Ages with HipHop and walking around with half our butts showing.......

 

I wonder why it took "white DNA" so long to get around to all that.

 

to maintain a healthy economy and society it requires population growth and the vast majority of that growth needs to contribute into society they need to be producers they need to produce more then they take
so for ever two mating couples male and female need to have a birth rate of over 2 offspring on average or your population wont grow

 

I'm actually looking forward to the day with interracial breeding we wont have distinguishable races anymore it will genetically strengthen the human species
and it will take power away from race obsessed liberals

 

So the Mexicans are getting the land back that was taken from them.

 

It wasn't "white DNA" but a series of historical accidents that lead to the development of modern technology and culture. It was, indeed, whites that contributed most to this development. It wasn't because they were white. Whites were perfectly unremarkable humans for a long time, had a flash of development in the middle of the first millennium B.C., returned to mediocrity, and slowly started arc upwards in the late middle ages.

This development doesn't point to "white DNA" being a causal factor.

 

In some sense, absolutely. But the border isn't likely to move, and that's going to cause problems.

Conflict is certain. War is plausible. I'm eager for neither. I join the racists in being concerned. Unlike the racists I have a workable solution.

The problem I face is that the people who see the problem brewing, as I do, happen to be useless racists. The people who might find a solution don't see a problem at all. Indeed, from the distance of time, they can be quite glib about it, as you are here.

 

So you see Mexicans as a problem.

 

I see the ballooning of the north Mexican culture in the American Southwest as the prelude to a bitter, bitter conflict between the different cultural groups of North America.

The Mexicans aren't a "problem" anymore than us Anglo-Americans are. We're all humans with the same distrustful, violent tendencies that humans have always had. Demographic and political systems aligned in such a way that we could believe that we were past all of that during the late 20th and early 21st century. The prevailing liberal notions of history will be seen as quaint and naïve by future observers.

But widespread violence isn't inevitable. The Americans and Mexicans and all those of us who share some of both identities are perfectly capable of coming to amicable compromises. But they will be just that, compromises, distasteful to both sides. I fear, however, that both sides will be too arrogant, and that conflict will ensue.

 

Maybe but Europe's fertility issues will be over!

 

Face the point. Nothing in white history suggests some genetic propensity for intellectual advancement. There were two waves in which whites crested above the historical norm, and just how "white" ancient Greeks were is a perfectly debatable point.

 

Kids? Maybe, if/when I can afford them. But I gotta get a handle on myself first before I can even think about being a parent to another human being.

 

Fertility is vulnerable to other factors. Family formation is delayed by large student loan debt. Get rid of that, and the fertility rate will increase.

 

whites same as Asians became more advanced as a race not because of their race but their culture and environment
Whites as in Asian stopped being hunter gatherers sooner and advanced to become farmers which allowed them to remain in one place growing advanced civilizations and because they didn't have to move around they had more free time and was able to expand their intellect
Its all about culture and environment not race

 

no we need to stop pushing college on everyone most jobs including high paying jobs shouldnt require a college degree and colleges need to be reformatted
half the coarse students take add no benefit to the student or to society