Is the Blue Wave turning into just a ripple?

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by pol meister, Aug 8, 2018.

  1. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    It's not even a splash. The way it's looking now, the Republican Party might actually WIN seats. This of course is the problem when left wing politics has no political discourse. US Citizens having long rejected political violence as any way of accomplishing real change, the party is at a loss.
     
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  2. The Don

    The Don Well-Known Member

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    The Democratic Party did significantly increase their share of the vote in the special elections and in the off-year state elections, so IMO they did have some cause for optimism but:
    • Despite significantly increasing their share of the vote, in the special elections the seats were so safely GOP that they failed to make enough electoral gains
    • Special elections and off-year elections tend to have lower turnout. Typically that helps the GOP whose supporters are more likely to vote but it's difficult to generalise and so I don't think too many conclusions can be safely drawn
    • The combination of voter suppression and gerrymandering has meant that the GOP has built a 7-10% bias into the voting process. Even if the Democratic Party poll 6% more than the GOP (which in other two party systems would result in a landslide in their favour), they'd still not achieve parity on seats won
    My biggest criticism of the Democratic Party is their apparent insistence of making everything all about being "not Trump" - or at least that's the way it appears from this side of the Atlantic. They fail to grasp that 40% or so of the US electorate are firmly pro-Trump and so nothing they do or say can shake that. Another significant section of the electorate really don't care about who is in power so long as they can continue to put food on the table and carry on with life. For sure there are 40% of people who are absolutely anti-Trump but the Democratic Party don't have to fight for them.

    IMO they need to excite the 20% or so in the middle enough to be persuaded to go out and vote Democrat. I've seen little or no evidence of candidates or policies aimed at doing that and so it's likely that they'll stay at home, the polling numbers will be close and the GOP will cruise to a comfortable victory as a result.
     
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  3. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    Careful, that's common sense. We can't have that on this side of the Atlantic, we're currently going crazy over here at the moment. Welcome and I hope you enjoy the forums. And I hope that the current economic spat doesn't change your views of the US, as it doesn't change my views of European history and Europe's importance in the world. I just wish that relations between Europe and Russia were better so that we can move that ticker even further away from Midnight.
     
  4. Max Rockatansky

    Max Rockatansky Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I don’t know but we should start a betting pool on the outcome of the election. It’d be fun!
     
  5. Whaler17

    Whaler17 Well-Known Member

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    The Democratic Party has become all about hate. All of their time is devoted to demonizing people and opposition. No ideas whatsoever are being discussed. Don’t like how Trump approaches the illegal immigration problem? What is your solution?
    Answer: :hiding:
     
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2018
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  6. pol meister

    pol meister Well-Known Member

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  7. Whaler17

    Whaler17 Well-Known Member

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    Less than a ripple. Dems have no message other than hatred.
     
  8. pol meister

    pol meister Well-Known Member

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    No rational US citizen could like the abuse of power and perversion of justice we are seeing in the Deep State coup against the President of the United States, nor the level of animus we are seeing from the anti-America demagogues known as the Democratic Party.

    So perhaps this latest poll is starting to show the realities of that dynamic, although admittedly, it is just one snapshot in time.
     
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  9. XploreR

    XploreR Well-Known Member

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    I think people are walking away from both parties and registering as independents. Most elections are still won by either Democrats or Republicans though. That may change over time, but probably very gradually.
     
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  10. XploreR

    XploreR Well-Known Member

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    I'm a Democrat and I don't hate anyone--not even Trump. Your post is wrong.
     
  11. Whaler17

    Whaler17 Well-Known Member

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    Nope! It is right on target. Your party’s only message is pure hatred. Guilt by association, you know like how Dems like to demonize all Republicans!!!!
     
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2018
  12. Whaler17

    Whaler17 Well-Known Member

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    Both established parties are frauds.
     
  13. XploreR

    XploreR Well-Known Member

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    Trump himself is the national demonizer, not the Democratic Party. With few exceptions, Trump attacks everybody alike, Republicans as well as Democrats. I agree with you to the point that Democrats & Republicans need to reestablish a working relationship together based on mutual respect in spite of disagreement. I miss that.
     
  14. Whaler17

    Whaler17 Well-Known Member

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    He learned this from the Bush bashing left. He is following the left’s lead. Deny it all you want, it is the truth!!!! Bb
     
  15. XploreR

    XploreR Well-Known Member

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    Two wrongs don't make a right.
     
  16. Whaler17

    Whaler17 Well-Known Member

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    Never said it did, but can’t whine about what you created!!!!!!!!!
     
  17. APACHERAT

    APACHERAT Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    In liberal San Francisco it looks more like a wave of poop.
     
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  18. Troianii

    Troianii Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Problem is that special elections alwayd draw a lot more attention and support from the party out of power. It's like that one race down south they had - what was it, thirty million in outside donations sent to the Democratic candidate there? Despite setting national records for amount of outside spending for a seat like that, they lost.

    It's easy to make a significant change in one race when you've got all the orgs and money flowing into it like that. It's much harder to do that when there are hundreds of such races in the same day.
     
  19. Troianii

    Troianii Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Hey Don, I recommend checking out voter affiliation with gallup. Democrats usually have a solid edge, with independents favoring the GOP, but the latest gallup poll shows more voters affiliating with Republicans than Democrats.

    I think your sense that voters are joining the Democrats in droves is very outdated.

    https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

     
  20. Troianii

    Troianii Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Polls were off in 2016 because of bad methodology. But whether the methodology is good or bad, when the polls all show a sizable shift, you can trust that whether or not the exact number is right, the trend is correct.
     
  21. Troianii

    Troianii Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I doubt it will come to fruition, but if the GOP made gains in the House and Senate, I would be very interested to see how the Democratic Party reacts.
     
  22. Troianii

    Troianii Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Rasmussen does have a small statistical bias in favor of the gop, but that's because they only poll likely voters, which lean gop, and other polls poll registered or adult voters, with adult voters decidedly leaning left.

    Rasmussen is almost the only agency that polls likely voters only.
     
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2018
  23. Liberty Monkey

    Liberty Monkey Well-Known Member

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    Waves go out to, they forgot to mention which way lol.
     
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2018
  24. The Don

    The Don Well-Known Member

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    I don't think you understood my post. What I said was that, in the special elections, the Democratic candidate got more votes than previously but not enough to actually win the race in almost all cases. That has absolutely nothing to do with declared party affiliation.

    It is possible that my sense is outdated, after all I'm working from the other side of the Atlantic but AFAIK the Democratic Party significantly narrowed the gap in almost all special elections where the GOP were defending the seat and in the off-year elections.
     
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  25. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    Hyper-partisan pom pom flailers are singularly unreliable in their political prognostications.

    For anyone interested in a sophisticated, objective analysis of the November festivities that explains its methodology, FiveThirtyEight's
    is a good one.
    Paranoid, hyper-partisan pifflewits often project an opposite bias onto disinterested sources that do not align with their wishes, so it's essential that they bear in mind that success for professional prognosticators is in being more accurate than their competitors, not in a self-destructive indulgence in wishful thinking.

     

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