What's going on with Brexit?

Discussion in 'Western Europe' started by The Rhetoric of Life, Mar 12, 2019.

  1. The Rhetoric of Life

    The Rhetoric of Life Banned

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    I have no idea, I'm just waiting for the final countdown.

    Can somebody tell me what's happening with Brexit?

    Seems I've stopped understanding the government months ago, and now something big's happened and... I'm still no clearer.

    Are we leaving at the end of March or not.

    Seems like we're not now.
     
  2. The Don

    The Don Well-Known Member

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    Unless parliament explicitly votes in favour of something, the UK's leaving with no-deal on 29 March.
    • It's unlikely that Theresa May's deal with will approved today
    • It's also unlikely that a no-deal will be approved tomorrow
    • I also think it's unlikely that an extension to article 50 will be approved if there's a vote on that on Thursday
    • Even if there is an extension, the choice will still be between Theresa May's deal and no-deal, neither option being supported by the majority of MPs
    Parliament are happy to say what they don't want, but are unable to decide what they do want. The default is a no-deal Brexit and so IMO that's what the UK will end up with - and the majority of people will be unhappy.

    If the default was no-Brexit then that's what the UK would end up with - and the majority of people would probably be unhappy.

    If the default was Theresa May's deal (or some other deal) then that's what the UK would end up with - and the majority of people would probably be unhappy.
     
  3. Reiver

    Reiver Well-Known Member

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    Brexit is easy: Listen to Jezza and Keir. The answer is strikingly obvious.
     
  4. diamond lil

    diamond lil Well-Known Member

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    No, we aren't leaving at the end of March and probably not at all.

    Everybody now hates Brexit and our wonderful members of Parliament don't want to be involved in any decision,

    There will be another referendum and this time common sense will prevail.

    No to Brexit
     
  5. The Don

    The Don Well-Known Member

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    Well, yes and no.

    Expecting the EU to agree to a customs union whilst at the same time as allowing the UK to negotiate separate deals with countries that already have EU deals is, IMO, a little far-fetched as is suggesting EEA membership without allowing the "four freedoms".

    That said, a customs union would be less damaging than Theresa May's deal and a lot less damaging than no-deal but the UK would have to be prepared to accept the terms of customs union membership.

    Then again, no Brexit would be the least damaging but there is zero chance of that.

    IMO a no-deal Brexit is still a nailed-on certainty because:
    • That's what the majority of Conservatives want
    • Theresa May would be happy enough with it
    • It's what happens if MPs cannot agree to any other course of action
    • It's what happens if Theresa May overrules the "advisory" votes over the next two days
     
  6. billy the kid

    billy the kid Well-Known Member

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    It was sticking out like dogs balls twelve months ago that a second referendum would occur, and because Brexit is too hard, the result of the first referendum will be reversed....
     
  7. The Don

    The Don Well-Known Member

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    I'm not so sure about that. I cannot currently see a way that a second referendum could make it through parliament, the Conservatives and DUP are implacably opposed to it (and would rather default out with a no-deal on 29 March) and there are enough Labour Brexiteers to ensure that any bill or amendment for a second referendum is bound to fail. Heck, Jeremy Corbyn hasn't mentioned a second referendum recently.

    Even if there is a second referendum, the fact that both major parties are pro-Brexit means that IMO the choice in any second referendum would be between some kind of Brexit deal and a no-deal Brexit. I cannot see "no-Brexit" being an option (although as a "Remoaner" I think the choice should be a binary one between no-deal (or a specific deal but not both) and no-Brexit) because there isn't a majority in parliament to support it.
     
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  8. The Rhetoric of Life

    The Rhetoric of Life Banned

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    Why do we need a deal with the EU?
    Because of militants in Ireland/Northern Ireland?

    Maybe we should have a hard border and remind everybody that we're not the same country?
    If the UK needs to protect its borders from dissident republicans, then so be it, it wouldn't be the first country in the world to protect its borders.
    Seems like Ireland are to blame for not letting the UK be an independent country (oh the irony).

    Why should there be a border down the Irish Sea when in reality the border is on the island of Ireland?
    It seems stupid to have a border in the Irish Sea to let a foreign country have free access to the UK.

    No deal should mean a border between the UK and Ireland, and a fresh slate for the UK to forge new deals.

    I'm not a lawmaker lol, but even I know this.
     
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2019
  9. The Rhetoric of Life

    The Rhetoric of Life Banned

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    Why not let UK and Ireland have their own agreement to avoid conflict and allow for peace.
    UK and France is doing this is if La Président (Hollande) was to be believed in 2016 post Brexit vote.

    France promised to keep the current arrangement stating that it was an agreement forged before the EU between the UK and France...
    Why not Ireland too?

    Give France, Ireland and Spain (and anyone else who wants to, Belgium, NL) competitive edges as gateway countries between Europe and the United Kingdom?
    François Hollande had a very good idea of a bilateral UK/France concept citing that is was made before the EU, why not have more bilateral deals for agreements with those countries along The Channel and North Sea and physically connected in the British Isles? Bilateral deals.

    Because the EU doesn't do fairness, it does equality.
    It doesn't even do fair trade, it does free trade.

    The EU isn't fair.

    Bilateral deals might solve the deadlock, let's cut Ireland a deal like UK love them. Let's polish the Emerald Isle with our 'mighty money' (Here's hoping UK)... and.... You know, let's be good to each other.

    Special deals, lucrative offers, Ireland best positioned like France, why not have concord back? Have Aer Lingus supersonic jets fly people in from JFK to DUB as well as CDG and LHR?
    Let us sit down UK and Ireland, and let's talk.
     
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2019
  10. The Don

    The Don Well-Known Member

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    Many reasons. Not having a hard border in Ireland and risking a return to "the troubles" is certainly a factor but there are literally thousands of things which are dependent on having some kind of orderly exit from the EU from the major stuff like 50% of the UK's international trade to relatively trivial things like pet passports.

    About the only thing that both sides of the sectarian divide agree on in Northern Ireland is that they do not want a hard border. A hard border would be devastating to business in Northern Ireland and terrorists are from both sides.
     
  11. The Rhetoric of Life

    The Rhetoric of Life Banned

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    Then let's do a bilateral deal with Ireland?

    Let's leave the EU out of it to save the EU.

    It's not like you could walk to Portugal from Ireland, can't even do it without leaving the Schengen anyway now can we?
     
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2019
  12. The Don

    The Don Well-Known Member

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    We can't, the EU doesn't work that way - you deal with the EU as a whole, not individual countries. David Davis had the same misconception for the first year or so of his tenure as Brexit secretary.
     
  13. The Rhetoric of Life

    The Rhetoric of Life Banned

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    Well then let's make it.

    It's to solve this deadlock.

    It's called thinking outside of the box, something I thought progressive Europeans loved to do, now they're going to reich it up with their reich ways. Sell us out for free.
     
  14. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

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  15. The Don

    The Don Well-Known Member

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    The whole purpose of a trading block is that there is a uniform set or rules and agreements across the board.

    If the UK and Ireland want a bilateral agreement, Ireland would have to leave the EU otherwise goods entering Ireland from the UK could then pass to the rest of the EU circumventing the rules.
     
  16. Reiver

    Reiver Well-Known Member

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    The problem is that you've allowed your conservatism to cloud your outlook. The EU is built on consensus building. It is akin to having a permanent Con-Lib pact. Unsurprisingly the fake moderate left parties, supporting that consensus, have seen their votes decimated.

    Let's take an issue like climate change and see how Europe guarantees long term losses. First, consider how the losses from climate change are skewed towards developing countries. The EU effectively accentuated that problem through their conservative demands over agricultural policy. Dominated by CAP, itself a mirror of French smallmindedness, it destroyed any chance of WTO development reform. It guarantees therefore the continuation of absolute poverty. I suppose, when immigration issues grow further, it still is a useful coordination device to pay for Libyan support to keep folk in detention centres and open to torture from local militia...

    And overall policy on climate change? We have seen European failure because of their consensus building. It's neatly described by the Emissions Trading System. Built from neoliberal market principles, it's not even capable of meeting criteria set by the Paris Agreement. Post-Brexit Britain can pursue more effective action, such as tax-and-dividend schemes (where climate change policy can be linked with left wing social objectives).
     
  17. The Don

    The Don Well-Known Member

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    Post-Brexit Britain may in theory pursue more effective action (but then again there's absolutely nothing stopping the UK exceeding EU targets and standards while still a member) but the proposed response to Brexit is to remove environmental and workers' protections and instead turn the UK into low-tax low-regulation base for other countries to offshore their tax obligations and pollution.
     
  18. Reiver

    Reiver Well-Known Member

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    Zero response to what was said. The EU has actively pursued policies detrimental to effective action. Outside the EU the UK is free to pursue WTO reform and introduce policies far more relevant than the EU's conservatism. Will that happen? Probably not. Right wing Labour and TIG are ironically doing their utmost to ensure hard Brexit.
     
  19. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The cunning self-serving creatures of the Westminster swamp are hell-bent on staying in, and only a full-on revolution can stop them from getting their way, not even social upheaval.
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2019
  20. The Don

    The Don Well-Known Member

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    I disagree. I think that the extension vote today will fail and then there will be two possible outcomes:
    • Theresa May's deal is accepted at the third attempt some time next week
    • The UK leaves the EU with no-deal on the 29 March
     
  21. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I don't think she will demean herself or us by asking for it. I think it more likely that Farage will be able to talk one of the 27 into not voting with the others, and he's working on it right now. God if only we'd had him from the beginning!! Cometh the hour, cometh the man, and he is the man.

    Edit: That's before I saw this (highlighted above). Another nail in the coffin towards UK unrest?

    "Brexit latest news: Donald Tusk urges EU leaders to consider 'long extension' to Article 50 to allow UK 'rethink'"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...-news-extension-article-50-delay-theresa-may/

     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2019
  22. The Don

    The Don Well-Known Member

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    She's already said that she intends to do it. The speaker may not allow it however.
     
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  23. The Scotsman

    The Scotsman Well-Known Member

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    I watched the voting last night and for the life of me I cannot fathom where we are now. They’ve said no to no deal so no deal is out but they’ve already rejected the offer from the EU. They’ve said no extension so we leave in two weeks with no EU deal and no no deal.... so whose deal are we leaving on and who is going to make up the deal and who is going to go to Brussels with this deal.... that doesn’t exist and nobody knows....is that about right???
     
  24. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    If Andrew Neil and Laura Kuenssberg can't get their heads around it, there isn't much chance the likes of us will be able to?
     
  25. The Don

    The Don Well-Known Member

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    The consensus seems to be "in uncharted territory"

    The government could choose to ignore that vote because it was non-binding.

    Well strictly speaking they've rejected the negotiated deal (not just an EU offer) twice - but yes

    No, that vote hasn't happened yet but personally I think that MPs will not vote for an extension.

    Even if MPs do vote for an extension then there are still two possible tripping points:
    • The EU, or one member of it could refuse to an extension
    • The EU could attach some conditions to the extension or insist that it is of a length where MPs subsequently reject that extension
    Unless Theresa May's deal is accepted if and when it comes up for a third vote, or an extension to article 50 is granted, or the government takes the unprecedented step of unilaterally withdrawing Article 50 (and I think it's more likely you'll find a live unicorn) then at 2300 GMT on March 29th, the UK leaves the EU with no-Deal and we'll see whether the government's much vaunted no-deal preparations were more than rhetoric.

    I've said it many times, whilst parliament is happy to say what it doesn't want, it isn't able to agree on what it does want which is why I'm convinced tha the default, a no-deal Brexit is inevitable.
     

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