IMPEACHMENT WATCH 2019-2020 - flow of data

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Statistikhengst, Sep 16, 2019.

  1. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    So according to your OWN DEFINITION highlighted above your BLOTUS is definitely "shifty" because he tell lies, TWELVE THOUSAND PLUS lies, and still counting.

    Can't get much more SHIFTY than that and yet you were calling out someone else instead?

    That says VOLUMES!
     
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  2. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Indeed.
     
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  3. Iron_Merc

    Iron_Merc Banned

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    Says a dyed in the wool democrat. Remember, you lost the election in 2016. Since you are part of the losing side, I have to take everything you say with a 50lb bag of salt. There is some clear resentment against Trump from your side. BLOTUS is yet another derogatory term that the left has come up with to marginalize the greatest president in 165 years (since Abraham Lincoln). Adam Schiff lied about Trumps conversation with the president of Ukraine. He claimed the president said one thing, but when the transcript was released by the WH it became clear that Shifty Schiff was lying. This blew a huge gaping hole in the diabolical scheme hatched by democrats, also known as the witch-hunt impeachment hoax. Still they have to continue down this road until the wheels fall off. Which will happen soon enough. Heck, now Adam is saying the whistleblower might not testify at all! lol

    What I don't get is how anyone could take this thing seriously. At least afford Trump the same curtesy as Nixon and Clinton. That means a bi-partisan inquiry. Take a full house vote on approving the inquiry. Right? Or are you happy to see this as a one side only partisan hack job?

    The Democrats are going to lose a lot of House Seats because of their Fraudulent use of Impeachment. Schiff fabricated phone call, a crime. Democrat Senate Seats will also be put at risk, even some that were supposedly safe. Look at Louisiana last night, North Carolina last week!

    As for president Trump being a liar, well, lets just say I'd recommend you read Witch Hunt by Gregg Jarrett, the book goes into detail on the greatest mass delusion in political history. In short its not Trump that's lying. It's the liberal media that's lying to the people of this nation. And those lies, along with (shifty) Adam Schiff, will be exposed soon enough. Trump has been a stand up president since day one. And the do nothing democrats have been doing NOTHING for the past three years, other than creating devious and malicious plans in a failed effort to stop Trump.

    By the way, I'm still waiting on an explanation as to why the "shifty Schiff" comment is anti-Semitic

    [​IMG]
     
  4. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    The majority of American voters voted against Fake Don in 2016.

    You can pretend that most Americans are, therefore, not to be trusted, and your irrational Trump worship can find further paranoid reinforcement in most Americans, consistently and relentlessly, disapproving of your messiah.

    If your paranoid, hyper-partisan mindset is exacerbated by the congressional inquiry inevitably exposing truths you would rather keep hidden, your upset is entirely understandable.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/do-americans-support-impeaching-president-trump/?ex_cid=rrpromo
     
  5. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  6. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Indeed.
     
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  7. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Well, at least you were willing to admit for one fleeting moment that a full house vote to start an Impeachment Inquiry is a COURTESY (spelling is your friend, nöööö) and not a requirement, but the fatal flaw in your logic is that somehow a full house vote leads to bi-partisan inquiry. There already is bi-partisan inquiry going on, right now. Furthermore, Donald Trump is not worthy of any courtesy. He is a ****ing nasty, ignorant, functionally (or disfunctionally) illiterate, lying, *****-grabbing, raw-dogging, adulterous, unfaithful, treacherous, treasonous, unamerican, bumbling liar worthy of being impeached in the House, found overwhelmingly guilty in the Senate, removed from office, led before a grand jury in a civil court and receive every single one of the correct punishments under the law of the United States of America for his multiple, overlapping crimes.
     
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2019
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  8. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    :applause:
     
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  9. Iron_Merc

    Iron_Merc Banned

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    I think you are talking about Obama. And you are making uneducated predictions that will likely backfire in your face. There is no bi-partisan inquiry. Make no mistake, this witch hunt was started by democrats. The whistle-blowers are democrats. One has ties to Joe Biden. The lawyer for the whistle blower is a democratic activist. Adam Schiff is a democrat. Nancy Pelosi is a democrat. Just because you can do something within the confines of law does not make that action right or just. For example, look at abortion. But this is how democrats operate. They use the limits of the laws to manipulate facts and hide the truth. They hide behind laws with the heat turns on them. And they abuse laws when it serves their purposes. Then they have the audacity to hold others to the standard of the law, when they know damn well they are the delinquent ones. The hypocrisy of the left is astounding.

    The precedent for impeachment of a President is done with a bipartisan committee. You are denying due process to Trump, do you realize that? You are eliminating any type of interference from your republican counterparts so that you can slowly leak details that fit your diabolical narrative! Adam Schiff is not the portrait of upstanding person. Oh yes, liberals tend to be grammar Nazis and some actually do have a secret affinity for Adolf Hitler. Like I said, we have to take everything you say with a grain (or a truckload) of salt. The reality of your situation is that starting with Obama, the democratic ship is sunk. They are all going down, and soon.

    And I notice you like to slander Trumps good name. We will turn that smug grin of yours upside down come election time.

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2019
  10. FivepointFive

    FivepointFive Banned

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    [​IMG]

    Say Cheese!!! 2020 Poor Pete Sessions taking funneled Russian Monsy
     
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  11. Bridget

    Bridget Well-Known Member

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    The activities of the Biden family needed to be investigated, regardless of who brought it up. I think Americans realize this. After the Russian Hoax/Steele dossier, Dems have a lot of nerve even talking about asking foreign governments for help in an election. But obviously, it's not about that, but rather attempting to overturn an election. American voters realize this too. And are not as stupid as Dems think we are.
     
  12. Iron_Merc

    Iron_Merc Banned

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    Say Cheese!!! (Tell me more about this funneled Russian money)
    [​IMG]
     
  13. XploreR

    XploreR Well-Known Member

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    There are SOOOooooooo many things wrong with your post above, it would take a day just to correct them. I'll just respond to your last line & your lying propaganda image. First, Trump has no good name to slander. Trump is a diabolical, consummate liar, with over 13,400 confirmed lies to his credit already, as per those websites that take the time & energy to track such things. One such lie is shown on your propaganda image. The only side in the 2016 election to attempt rigging the election, was the Trump side.
     
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  14. Iron_Merc

    Iron_Merc Banned

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    Trump is diabolical? Where and when?
    If Trump is diabolical, what does that make Obama and Hillary?
     
  15. XploreR

    XploreR Well-Known Member

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    Trump has been trying to get foreign leaders involved with American elections in ways that benefit his own candidacy. Russia started many of the egregious lies about Hillary's malicious behaviors, & many non-thinking voters accepted them as true & voted accordingly. Trump has also converted the leaders of the current Dept of Justice (DOJ), from their historic dedication to the U.S. Constitution, to now being a personal support mechanism for Trump himself, & accountable only to him rather than the Constitution they are supposed to serve. Trump has also undercut the entire professional staff of the State Dept, by using Giuliani as a personal liaison to pursue foreign investigations into Trump's political rivals, as if he were a member of the State Dept himself. Trump is effectively disabling the State Dept & others while instilling his own shadow departments led by his own hand-picked henchmen to lead them. Such are the antics of an authoritarian leader. Trump admires dictators around the world, & is a wannabe. Regardless of how you feel about Obama or Hillary, neither ever tried to lead or sway the nation away from its hallowed institutions, or tried to make themselves the solitaire leader of the nation. Trump has repeatedly stated in speeches, "Only I can do it," & he frequently behaves in ways that prompt us to believe he really means it. He has disconnected all of America's trained & experienced experts in many fields--tossed them aside as if they were a waste of his time--& repeatedly told us he was smarter than any of them, & would depend on his own knowledge & intelligence to make his decisions. But in reality, his knowledge is severely limited, & his decision on Syria clearly demonstrates it. Trump is by far the most inept President in U.S. history.
     
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  16. FivepointFive

    FivepointFive Banned

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    Not sharply dressed Hunter admitted it

    Grow a Beard 2020

     
  17. Iron_Merc

    Iron_Merc Banned

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    Okay, so name just one real world example of something diabolical Trump has done and we can talk about it.
     
  18. XploreR

    XploreR Well-Known Member

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    Trump is a Russiaphile, who admires & possibly envies Putin for his unchallenged & absolute power. In Trump's recent decisions regarding both Ukraine & Turkey, his actions helped elevate Putin's influence in the region. It now appears Russian troops may be moving into the facilities evacuated by U.S. troops in the past few days. And Trump seems totally at ease with this & the vicious attacks on the Kurds, who fought with & for our troops for over a decade. Trump has no apparent qualms about deserting fellow combatants after a long history of fellowship & loyalty. He does that with his own personal friends, & appears to be comfortable doing it with our national friends as well. I find all these things diabolical, along with his ongoing dissolution of our functional American government. I don't know what it takes to convince a core supporter such as yourself, but I've watched & learned enough over the past four years, to conclude Trump's America is NOT the America I want. It's too harsh, selfish, self-serving & lacking in concern or compassion for our friends & allies, to earn my respect or support.
     
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  19. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Your BLOTUS ABDUCTED small children away from their parents as a means of punishing the parents.

    That is a Crime Against Humanity as well as a VIOLATION of their Constitutional rights! Yes, even immigrants seeking asylum have all the same constitutional rights as everyone else except for those reserved for citizens only.

    No, Obama never did anything of the kind. There were UNACCOMPANIED children who were crossing the border but NONE of them were abducted by his administration and there was no policy in place to do so. Detained families were kept together.

    So your BLOTUS did commit a diabolical crime with his POLICY of abduction children and it was THOUSANDS of them which makes it a SERIAL CRIMINAL OFFENSE.

    And if you do want to discuss this Impeachable crime in detail then I would recommend that you start another thread and send me the link although there is no defense for this level of criminal behavior.
     
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2019
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  20. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Gallup now joins the slew of pollsters showing a change in impeachment mood among the American public.

    The Gallup polling question, like Politico and YouGov, was as to whether or not to impeach AND convict (remove):

    52 yes / 46 no

    Here a graphic showing the change over June 2019:

    2016-10-016 Gallup.png

    Right now, I can't find any internals, but at least the toplines are input in the the table mentioned in the OP.

    Just to note, this is the third pollster in 8 days time to show a majority support not only for impeachment, but also for removal, point-blank.
    It is also the 11th pollster since 10/04 to show a decided uptick in people supporting impeachment (meaning: inquiry). Again, we are looking at data from 11 completely independent-from-each-other polling organisations, often with differing methodologies, and yet, the numbers are all, without exception, pointing in the same direction.

    I will remind that in 2010 and 2012, Gallup had a major scandal with mathematical bias, of up to composite 7 points - to the Right, not to the left. So, if anything, these impeach and remove numbers are likely higher than actually indicated here.

    -Stat
     
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  21. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Important impeachment / impeachment inquiry / Trump support update:

    With the untimely death of Elijah Cummings, this means that there are currently 234 Democrats in the US-HOR. This also means that there are 3 vacant seats at this time (MD-07, NY-27 and WI-07), which brings the total House balance to D 234 / R 197 / I 1 / vacant 3, D +37. That just as a starting point.

    Since I last updated, the most endangered Democrat of all, Dan McAdams (UT-04) has come out for impeachment inquiry. Actually, he did it before my last update, but since so many pols have been saying something and then taking it back in one way or another, I am waiting longer these days. But with McAdams now on board FOR impeachment, this means that 230 of 234 Ds are on board. That is 98.3% of the Democratic Caucus in the HOR. When you add former Republican turned Independent Justin Amash (MI-03) to the mix, who is absolutely a yes vote for impeachment and removal, then the sum-total of yes' = 231.

    Of the 4 four Democrats not on board, only 1 of them has come out squarely against impeachment:

    2016-10-019 impeachment HOR update - DEM holdouts.png

    How much Collin Peterson's "no" means is really anyone's guess, for if you recall, at the beginning of September, Democrat Max Rose was just absolutely 100% against impeachment but after the Ukraine scandal broke, he changed his mind very quickly. Collin Peterson, who is 75 years old and will be going on 77 when the next Congress is inaugurated, is from the class of 1990 in the US HOR, so 2018 was his 14th re-election and his 15th successful election overall in MN-07. He won his district (MN-07) by +4.26% in 2018, which means that it has become more and more competitive. If you recall, in 2018, there were 2 D-pickups, 2 R-pickups and one barnburner race (MN-01). So, there are political reasons for why Peterson is doing what he is doing. But also, as far as I can tell, Peterson is not much into the social media stuff like his younger counterparts, so, to find out what he is really thinking, you need to rely on newspaper articles of events in his district where he has spoken. The other 3 Democrats picked-up seats in 2018, which means that 40 of 43 D-pickups are YESes on impeachment and 3 have yet to firmly make a decision.

    Now, on the Republican side, I have opened up a tab for those who have come out FOR an impeachment inquiry or who have taken back their support overall for Trump:

    2016-10-019 impeachment HOR update - GOPers for inquiry.png

    When Mark Amodei came out first unequivocally FOR an impeachment inquiry and then got quashed like a bug by Trump and then called it back, I have waited almost one month to put his YES in table-format, but as is the case with all Republicans, he is threading the needle with the most careful of words. Will Hurd said unequivocally that he does not support impeachment (as a vote at the end of the process) but he is ok with an inquiry, especially into the Ukraine scandal, and since the Ukraine scandal is literally in the middle of the impeachment inquiry, then logic dictates that he is FOR the inquiry. The to latest additions are Republicans who are truly enraged that Trump has left our erstwhile allies the Kurds to be slaughtered and they have spoken out in no uncertain terms, yet still threading the needle. The list is currently interesting: 2 of those 4 Republicans are retiring and the other 2 hail from absolutely rock solid districts, and if you will recall, I wrote the following in the OP:

    There are also other Republicans who have had some choice words for Trump about the Ukraine scandal and/or Syria and although they have not come out for impeachment or the inquiry, this may change soon:

    Adam Kinzinger (IL-16):

    2016-10-019 impeachment HOR update - Adam Kinzinger 001.png
    2016-10-019 impeachment HOR update - Adam Kinzinger 002.png

    What sets Adam Kinzinger apart is that his is not afraid to call out Trump over twitter, directly by name, and more than once in one day. To my knowledge, to this date, he is the only Republican who has been doing this. So, if things get worse, and indeed, they probably will, I can definitely see Adam Kinzinger, who rode into office during the 2010 GOP wave and has been re-elected 4 times, the last time with around +18. Also important to note that although GOP to Trump is coming from 2 districts in Illinois, those two districts are very, very different. Shimkus's district (IL-15) is almost perfectly evenly split between urban (small towns) and rural and is some of the finest farmland in the midwest, along the southwest border to Indiana. Kinzingers's district, IL-16, the big collar district around the outskirts of Chicago and environs, is 70% urban (a lot of it suburban) / 30% rural, and this explains why Kinzinger won by +18, while Shimkus won by over +40. Shimkus is retiring, he doesn't need to care anymore. But Kinzinger is in an area where the suburbs are moving rapidly solidly blue and although I don't doubt his conviction at all, there is also a political advantage for him, if you know the electoral lay of the land in his state.


    The next two candidates on my GOP list are: Chris Smith, the lone GOP rep from New Jersey-04, class of 1980! but only 66 years, and from Oregon-02: Greg Walden

    Here again is the LINK to the excel-data.
     
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  22. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    A fascinating development has happened. In the quoted posting of mine from this morning, there was a screenshot of Republicans who are either for the impeachment inquiry or who have rescinded their general support of Trump. Here again is that screenshot:

    2016-10-019 impeachment HOR update - GOPers for inquiry.png

    Francis Rooney, one of the two GOPErs I indicated were furious over Trump's actions in Syria, indicated just yesterday that he was "open" to an impeachment inquiry. Today, just one day after the announcement and after have been elected only 2 times to his seat in FL-19, Rooney is calling it quits. He is retiring from an R +20 district that would have essentially been a cakewalk for him had he stayed in the race. This makes him the 18th GOPer to retire in this cycles, and October is not even over with yet....

    So, as of now, of the four Republicans on that screenshot above, 3 of them are retiring.
     
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  23. btthegreat

    btthegreat Well-Known Member

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    Wouldn't such a mathematical bias be long gone in the course of 7 years? I mean how long should it take for Gallup to cure a systems or training based problem that brought such bad press when reputation for accuracy is the bellweather for success in the industry?
     
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  24. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    I find your question to be brilliant.

    The easy answer is that Gallup never really tried to correct anything. Gallup was sued and then settled out of court.
    But to be truthful, there is not easy answer. But after the shlamazels of 2010 and 2012, this is why Gallup gave up on the congressional generic ballot and also on daily rolling presidential matchup polling.
     
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  25. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    If I recall correctly there was a record number of GOP retirements in 2018.

    If that pattern repeats in 2020 then that means fewer INCUMBENTS which in turn results in more competitive races.

    2020 is shaping up to become more and more interesting.
     
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