The US economy may not grow at all in the 4th quarter

I think 2020 could be a bad year, not sure what the fed can do to stop it either

 

interest rates are down, tax cuts for the corps, that is artificial boosting of the markets, the country, the people and the corps are more in debt now than ever - only thing left is for the fed to print money like crazy and that will cause major inflation

I honestly think a 1929 is coming in the next few years, and I do not think it can be stopped at this point

I think it all started with Bush's over-reaction to 9-11 and his huge tax cuts for the rich - and of course foreign outsourcing by the greedy corps

 

Quote: There is no uptrend relative to GDP. FGCE is a significantly smaller portion of GDP

You keep repeating a fallacy, and I'll keep exposing the facts;

For simplicity's sake, let's use Current/Nominal GDP X 100

Q3 2018 FGCE level; $1.358 trillion
Q3 2019 FGCE level; $1.432 trillion
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGCE


Q3 2018 Nominal GDP; $20.749 trillion
Q3 2019 Nominal GDP; $21.525 trillion
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP/

2018; $1.358 trillion/$20.749 trillion X 100 = 6.545%
2019; $1.432 trillion/$21.525 trillion X 100 = 6.653%

Up by a small percentage (0.108%), however, $21.525 trillion X 0.108% = $23.247 billion

There you go, as a percent of GDP, there is still an uptrend, and a significant amount of money.

 

By the way, Socratica, relative to GDP, do we currently have record revenues?

 

Quote: If we're judging it in terms "significant fiscal accommodation", the Government spent significantly more during 2008 financial crisis as a portion of overall GDP.

Obviously, you're trying to dilute the following indisputable fact;

Q3 2016 FGCE; $1.23 trillion
Q3 2019 FGCE; $1.43 trillion
UP $200 billion, and $1 FGCE equates to $1 GDP

Of course $200 billion is a miniscule amount relative to the GDP, however, in nominal terms, highly significant.

Quote: "Yeah but, relative to the GDP, government spent significantly more during 2008 financial crisis" IRRELEVANT, IRRELEVANT, IRRELEVANT!

PSST; I'm comparing Trump and Trump

 

The "resistance" really hopes for the worst in the upcoming year.

 

I don't like repeating myself, but I will because there appears to be an comprehension issue. If you believe that a small percentage (as you have correctly pointed out) such as 0.108% a year (0.027% a quarter) is a significant percentage increase and $23.247 is a significant amount, I'm not here to feather-bed your delusions.

I'm only going to tell you that this amount is insignificant in a historical perceptive.

Historical FGEC Change

• Financial Crisis (Q1 2008 - Q2 2009): +1.01%
• NASDAQ Bubble (Q1 2001 - Q3 2001): +0.60%
• 1983 Recession (Q1 1981 - Q4 1981): +0.90%
• 1981 Recession (Q1 1991 - Q2 1980): +0.80%
• No Recession (Q3 2018 - Q3 2019): +0.10%

Lowest amount of Federal Spending since the 90's, but this increase is significant...

 

Your math is just not good...

 

The budget deficit has doubled in two years of Trump's tenure. Extrapolating that into the future would portend US bankruptcy.

That is before the wall and before the infrastructure investments that have not moved.

The economy is in a parlous state if a recession occurred before the rise of budget deficits was arrested or reversed.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSD

 

TBF, the guy did literally promise to pay off the debt by the end of his first term. And now he's created a trillion+ dollar deficit.