China coronavirus: Death toll rises as more cities shut down

I use cavicide. https://www.metrex.com/en-us/products/surface-disinfectants/caviwipes

The important thing to remember is to wipe it on, and then let it AIR DRY-the longer the better. Don't follow up with a paper towel, etc.

 

There is also fungal PNA.

This strain of viri seems to focus on the lower respiratory tract,

So cough, wheezing, and diminished lung sounds may be noted.

Dx can be made clinically (it is in the 3rd world) but in the US an xray will likely be done.

 

That's my mindset too. I mainly use the "cleaning strength" vinegar and baking soda for day-to-day routine cleaning and, although I do use a little bleach to clean a few things (like the toilet). Don't want to kill the "good" germs which eat the "bad" germs naturally.

Having a minimum couple weeks of food (and lots of drinking water) on hand is always a good idea.

 

I'm not one for panic nor am I one for conspiracy theories but this made me think! It is in another thread which I cannot find now because my notifications never work. Look at the videos in the link.

https://halturnerradioshow.com/inde...irt-phone-lines-off-hospitals-out-of-supplies

 

while the information of the shortage of supplies, personell, and doctors is probably true enough, that a 100,000 DEAD in the one area alone is impossible to be hidden. At the least, while China has restricted for communications and internet, there remains plenty of ways to transmit information and internet to show plenty to show there is more than a 100 TIMES deaths than the claimed. Even with ALL calls and internet shut down (probably not possible), internet communications like direct communication on satellite and also satellite phones will give plenty of information to show that kind of dister for 100,000 dead in a city.

What we do hear is some talk from tired and overwhelmed nurses etc. about shortages of equipment, supplies, medicines, personnel that will be expected in an epidemic.

While the official lists are low, even the authorities assume 5 times more than the official numbers, which is why they are closing areas to help slow down the spread. A 100,000 dead is certainly possible to occur before long, but not quite yet.

But other countries will see more effect and deaths too, if this is as a widespread and powerful a disease as this will be to be possible.

Sure wish the USA was doing more prep, but they will do little until too late. But.they should do it every day anyway, but no one cares in America.

 

Allah punishes the Chinese for their terror against the Uyghurs.

 

This is basically SARS, just super contagious and slightly milder. SARS survivors had permanent lung damage.

 

Nah, more like Jehovah punishing them for eating all sort of grose creatures or Buddha for eating animals at all.

 

I have to admit this outbreak is starting to look a lot worse than I had first thought. The confirmed first case in Germany is a German citizen, who never traveled, but was in a meeting with a Chinese, who also never was in Wuhan, but whose parents were. The Chinese woman started noticing symptoms on her flight back to China from the meeting in Germany. This confirms that the virus can be transmitted BEFORE any symptoms are noticed. It also means the screenings at airports for a fever are basically useless, because carriers can be contagious without a fever. Overall, it seems that the virus is a lot easier to transmit than initially thought.

Oh well, back to my class, in which I probably have several students who just last week traveled back from China.

 

So far h2h transmission has been observed in China (obviously), Vietnam, Germany and Japan. Scary **** when you add asymptomatic transmission.

 

Whatever you feel safest with is your best bet.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK214356/

https://home.howstuffworks.com/bleach2.htm

 

I think the best precaution is to wash hands often, in particular before eating, and to try to avoid touching nose, eyes and mouth with your hands. Those are good precautions to take in flu season anyway.

 

In my opinion, they lie.

Of course, if you divide the number of deaths by the number of cases, you get 2 percent mortality.106/4607x100=2.3%

But this is a fake calculation method. In fact, it is necessary to divide the number of deaths by the number of cases that were detected at the time when those who died today fell ill.

On average, how many days did those who die get sick? They don’t tell us that. Suppose they were sick 10 days before they died. The number of cases doubles every two days. There were about 30 times fewer cases of illness 10 days ago. So, it is necessary to divide 106 deaths into approximately 150 cases that were identified 10 days ago.

Mortality is 70%. This is comparable to the bubonic plague in the Middle Ages. And today, doctors have no means other than quarantine.

The reproduction rate of this coronavirus is 2.6, according to virologists. The pandemic will stop when this ratio is less than 1. The coefficient can be reduced by introducing strict quarantine: ban city transport, all events, close most enterprises, schools, colleges, universities.

The incubation period for this coronavirus reaches 2 weeks. Throughout this period, a person who does not yet have any signs of illness is a source of infection for other people. Therefore, temperature control for passengers at airports does not make sense: all arrivals should be sent to quarantine for two weeks.

If the number of cases doubles every two days, then after 20 days there will be 4 million cases, and after 40 days, 4 billion will become ill.

The death toll also doubles every 2 days. After 20 days, 400 thousand will die. In 40 days, 400 million will die.

By early March, half of China will die out, by early April, half of the inhabitants of all other countries will die out. If you do not change the dynamics of the spread of the virus.

 

Your calculation on mortality % is also wrong. At the time of infection of those who eventually die, there were clearly fewer confirmed cases, but also lots of unconfirmed cases. At the end, the EXACT mortality rate will be known when the outbreak is over.

Second, isn't it fun to play with the math of exponential growth? With a virus, or cancer, we immediately grasp that exponential growth quickly leads to staggering numbers of infections, for example. Of course, we also know that the exponential growth will eventually cease, because the virus has killed all of its potential hosts, or the hosts have become resistant.

Why is it so hard for people to see, on the other hand, that economic growth is also exponential growth, and follows exactly the same math? It is not hard to see that economic growth will also cease at one point, wearing itself out just like the virus or cancer.

 

That's often the case. A person is weakened and debilitated by a virus, and then a bacterial infection comes in for the easy pickings and finishes the person off.

 

Of course. I do not have data for each patient to calculate the exact mortality rate. But she does not 2%. Maybe 20%, maybe 70%, but not 2%.

It is naive to assume that this virus will be saturated and stop killing of its own free will. This is not cancer that is caused by other causes. This is a simple virus that will kill almost everyone it gets to. I believe that very few people can have immunity from this virus, maybe even no one.

You just look at the numbers: 106 died, 73 recovered. This is a plausible relationship.

 

The government (CDC, State Dept, ect.) may be minimizing the risks and threat so as not to cause a public panic. Hal Turner tends to sensationalize and exaggerate his stories for maximum impact. The truth is somewhere in the middle, I expect.

Over the weekend, I saw some videos showing people fighting over food in a grocery and empty shelves and a video of a well-stocked store which didn't indicate any shortage with no long lines and people shopping like "normal". Probably a difference in wealthier areas having more and poor areas having shortages is my guess.

Anyway, all we can do is wait an see what happens in the upcoming days and weeks.

 

Never said that the virus will stop killing on its own will (that would be a silly thing to say, as viruses have no free will). What I said is that its growth will stop by running out of hosts, either by killing them, or by them building resistance, or by humans actively preventing the spread of the virus (behavioral changes, quarantine etc.).

Since this virus seems to spread by transmission from people without symptoms, it actually does not evolutionary benefit from killing the host. This indicates that the virus is not adapted to humans as a host. This is different from Ebola, which transmits through direct contact with bodily fluids, for example blood.

 

I found a Deutsche Welle (DW) link for your story: https://www.dw.com/en/germany-confirms-human-transmission-of-coronavirus/a-52169007 . And there are quite a few others, too, and all of them are quite recent, within the past few hours.

 

You should hug the new students heartily and if they are amenable, do a double kiss on their cheeks!

Get infected and avoid the rush! People who are getting infected early means there will be some available hospital beds, medical supplies, and medical personnel before they get sick or overwhelmed!

Later on, if it get really bad, in the 1917 flu pandemic, if a patient was beyond of surviving, those still living were simply stacked up like cordwood on the side of the wards until they died and were loaded out to the mass graves outside.

 

After doing a LOT of reading yesterday about disinfectants, I stumbled on this 'no-name' product at Walgreen's: https://www.walgreens.com/store/c/nice!-disinfectant-wipes-lemon/ID=prod6298603-product

It's CHEAP, and it has the active ingredients that are cited as most effective against the family of SARS-type viruses that includes the Coronavirus! Oddly enough, neither the Lysol, nor the Clorox "wipes" had these components, and THAT surprised me:

"Ingredients
Active Ingredients: Octyl Decyl Dimethyl Ammonium Chloride - 0.0909 %, Dioctyl Dimethyl Ammonium Chloride - 0.0364 %, Didecyl Dimethyl Ammonium Chloride - 0.0545 %, Alkyl Dimethyl Benzyl Ammonium Chloride - 0.1212 %"

--- Another thing... my dentist told me that these face masks that everybody is wearing are pretty much useless except on people who are already infected! It keeps them from spreading sneezes, snot, sputum, and 'droplets' out onto other people around them....

For a mask to be effective, you MUST have an air-tight seal around the edges of the mask, on the face, and a filtered in-and-out valve or it's really nothing but a 'fashion accessory'....

 

These are detergents, basically another form of soap you use to wash your hands. They are effective against bacteria, by disrupting their membranes. The are also somewhat used in protecting against viruses, but I am not sure how well that protection is.

The advantage of washing hands vs. disinfection is that you actively remove infectious particles from the surface of the skin, in addition to killing some with the soap.

 

My old-fashioned preference is for BLEACH, but if you ever get bleach in places and tissues where it causes pain and harm, then that's no good, either. You would never want to put full-strength bleach on body tissues, for instance (as I'm sure you know).

I'm still trying to figure this out. But in the meantime, right or wrong, I'm avoiding being around groups of people until we finally get some accurate information about this virus. My gut-feel is that this whole thing will remain localized in Asia, for the MOST part. There won't be any big bug-eyed 'pandemic' -- but the companies that sell these 'surgical masks' are going to make an absolute KILLING (so to speak)....

 

I, too, hope that this will be contained in China.

What people don't realize is that, compared with the Ebola outbreak a few years ago, there is A LOT more travel between China and the US compared to West Africa. If I read this correctly

https://www.transportation.gov/site...ssenger-and-freight-statistics-march-2019.pdf

there are about 28,000 people traveling between the US and China every day.

In our relatively small Chemistry department alone, we had three Chinese students travel back from China in January.

Numbers DO make a difference here.

 

We use a lot of Chlorhexidine for disinfecting surgical instruments, skin, and surfaces like poly calf huts, etc. . It’s easy on the skin, doesn’t stink or burn like iodine and alcohol in wounds, and very effective on bacterial and fungal pathogens. It’s very good on coronavirus as well. It is not so good on non enveloped viruses such as rotavirus.

As someone mentioned earlier, veterinary supply companies are your cheapest source for bulk purchases of things like this. Also for 7% iodine which we use as well.