Why I'm against the financially devastating plan known to us as: "Flattening the Curve."

Discussion in 'Coronavirus Pandemic Discussions' started by AmericanNationalist, Mar 19, 2020.

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  1. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]

    Look at this. Now, what this image conveys to you in favor of using this strategy is that it gives the appearance(or at least the feeling) of the cases at least being low enough in number to reduce stress for the hospital beds.

    But there's something else I want you to notice. The Cliff. In a non-suppressed plan, the cliff is bigger. But in a suppressed plan, the cliff is smaller.

    This isn't just because there's more cases in a non-suppressed plan as opposed to the suppression plan. It's because the dip is BIGGER. In other words, in a non-suppressed plan(where we hit the peak quicker), the dip off will begin as the viral spread finds nowhere to spread anymore(herd immunity).

    As people have noted, we don't exactly have to all attain immunity, just enough so that the viral spread continues to decline as it has less and less viable hosts.

    Let's make it easier to understand by comparing it to the stock market. As the stocks rise in value, the marker continues to go up on the graph right? But as we all know, there comes a time where the volatile rise is disrupted and it starts to fall.

    [​IMG]

    When you see stocks go up and down, when you see accountant data for a company's sales, they graph their sales and progress along the same lines as we currently discuss the coronavirus case.

    I'm aiming for the dip(and then you can focus on streamlining the rate to keep it low.).

    What's the difference between aiming for the dip as opposed to the suppression plan?

    Well, as noted by the doctors who penned the flat curve paper, it's entirely possible(in fact plausible) that as soon as conditions lightened, that the curve will go right back up once you lift the quarantine. Which accomplishes the exact opposite of its STATED goal.

    That's problem #1 with this strategy. Problem #2 with Suppression is that because we don't hit the peak, the virus continues to have viable hosts. The only way this strategy works(purely on the health prospective) is if we stay in quarantine long enough for the vaccine.

    Good freaking luck. Sincerely, good luck.

    And that's focusing purely on health. Even if I didn't care at all about the financial system, I think this is a damn stupid idea. It's basically the difference between emergency surgery and death by thousand cuts. Let me tell you, the surgery and blood loss is preferable to the death by thousand cuts.

    So let's turn our attention to the freaking sledge hammer these incompetent scientists have just put on our financial sector. Something they can't comprehend. Let's go very slowly, so that everyone can comprehend what has just taken place.

    First of all, we've destroyed whole sectors of industry by taking everyone out of work. Literally, the US has been crippled from a financial sector. What gives money is value is the monetary production. No work=no productivity and nothing to base our currency on. Not only has productivity come to a halt, with less dollars in circulation as a result(and with this quarantine) there's fewer buyers as well as Sellers.

    On its own, this would already be very bad. But it's about to get worse, because of the government response to the problem IT created. So in order to fund businesses and in order to keep people paid while holding them out of work, the government has now approved of fiat packages of various kinds to be voted on(I suspect by roll call at this point given the infections that have happened.). These packages are projected to the tune of trillions of dollars.

    Dollars that can't be generated from business or any sort of financial activity.

    This is why Pollycy and I are going absolutely ballistic. First you disrupt financial sectors, then you essentially devalue the currency and we're without the work and productivity to pay off those future bills.

    What would make an investor chill even more is that we don't know just how 'temporary' is it going to be. A few weeks more? A few months? A year?

    Imagine the amount of hours lost, imagine the amount of dollars that have just been sucked out of the financial system. Flattening the Curve has literally guaranteed us a second great depression.

    This isn't going to be some short term problem. Remember the First Great Depression was from 1929-1945. That is 16 years. If we recover from this within 2 years, that means we could be entering 14 years of depression for a TWO year problem.

    What would I do? I'd isolate and quarantine those confirmed cases yes, but I would allow those healthy and able to continue to work and produce so that we didn't grind the system into a halt and then ending up passing the inflation package of hell.

    Don't focus on past Trump policy decisions. Even if we didn't have the tariff war, this stupid decision is literally going to cost us tens of trillions. We're going to move from Corona to Great Depression 2.0, and it's best for us as a country to be aware of this financial plight.
     
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2020
  2. Badaboom

    Badaboom Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Except you can't and won't know who's infected or not. People lie, it's human nature, and the test takes time. So there's nothing you can do when one individual doesn't want to isolate himself and end up contaminating his workplace.

    And again, the system is there to work for us, not the other way around. If it crashes because of this, then it wasn't the best system for us.

    Flatening the curve will save the most human life since it'll have less strain on the healthcare system and ressources, human and material.
     
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  3. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    The system isn't automated though. It doesn't "work" on its own. To work it for us, we have to be the ones on the steering wheel. If it crashes because of this, it will also be a damper on an automated form of economics. In other words, the unemployed are still financially damaged even in an robotics world.

    But think about that first sentence, and think about how many humans exist globally let alone here in the US. That's why this "plan" is stupid. This death by a thousand paper cuts, at best is trying to delay the inevitable. But even if we succeed in what can be best described as a concurrent delay, we jump right into this great depression that's outlined right here.

    It's ****ing two things up, to assure "less strain" on the health care system.
     
  4. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    "That's problem #1 with this strategy. Problem #2 with Suppression is that because we don't hit the peak, the virus continues to have viable hosts. The only way this strategy works(purely on the health prospective) is if we stay in quarantine long enough for the vaccine."

    either way about the same number get infected, just one method spread it out over time to keep the number infected low enough that it does not overload the medical system

    most of us are gonna get it one way or the other, and yes once more of us get it, the spread slows due to developed immunity

    the quarantine is not to 100% prevent everyone from getting it, it's just to slow the number of people getting it in a short amount of time
     
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2020
  5. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    "This isn't going to be some short term problem. Remember the First Great Depression was from 1929-1945. That is 16 years. If we recover from this within 2 years, that means we could be entering 14 years of depression for a TWO year problem."

    the recession\depression was coming regardless of Corona, this was just the straw that broke the camels back, would have happened anyways, this is what happens when we prop up the stock market and create a bubble, it eventually pops
     
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2020
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  6. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    It also means that we get the immunity in a quicker amount of time(along unfortunately with the deaths and fatalities.). The only issue here, seems to be the "health care overload". But if these people are told to stay home anyway...why does that matter? Literally just stop treating the Corona cases altogether.

    The damage we're doing, so that we can keep hospital beds open....is something we're likely only to perceive once this is over.
     
  7. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

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    Imo, to determine the best course of action we first have to ask ourselves a simple question.
    What is more important?... Stock prices??... Or human lives?

    We all need to understand that if we allow the infection to significantly exceed our healthcare capacity
    then more people are going to die as a result of that.

    Are hits to the financial markets a bad thing? Of course. Is it better for people to be working than not? In general, yes.
    But these economic issues are really just temporary inconveniences when compared with the threat of permanent death.

    If you lose a bit of money on the stock markets (or a ton of it), then even if it takes time, that can eventually be reversed.
    But there's no reversing things for those who succumb to the illness or for those suffering other ailment or injury who find themselves unable to attain sufficient treatment and die as a consequence.

    Want to reduce the amount that curve needs to be flattened? Then let's have our government do what it can to build more hospital space and see to it that there are enough supplies and healthy and protected staff to go around. Because the government's focus should first and foremost be placed on saving lives. Negative economic impacts should be dealt with by our government as well,... but only in due time, and definitely not at the expense of the lives of our fellow American citizens.

    -Meta
     
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  8. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    the health care overload means the people that need care can't get it

    the people that woudl stay home, do so either way
     
  9. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    Re-read what you just wrote again and ask yourself: "Why are we doing this?" **** doesn't make any sense. You can literally test these people, confirm it and then quarantine them at home. If there's nothing hospitals can do, there should be no such thing as an overload.

    It's not "stocks", I didn't use the word stock market once. We are literally throwing TRILLIONS of dollars into the trash, for a novel theory for a problem that might as well be non existent if we didn't treat Corona cases.
     
  10. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

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    Note, there is no widespread cure for CV-19 yet. Hospitals can't at the moment make the virus go away.
    But what they can do is keep those infected alive long enough to recover.

    -Meta
     
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  11. Burzmali

    Burzmali Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    WTF?

     
  12. Ritter

    Ritter Well-Known Member

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    Yes, this whole Covid.Crisis will result in ridiculous solutions proposed by the Central Banks such as stimulus and 0% interest rate.

    Large companies will buy up the smaller ones and once the freshly printed money reaches the wallets of the workers and the retired, it will be worth less as they now live a society where there is more money than goods and services.

    Scary times await.
     
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2020
  13. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    you and I both know the tests are not there to do that

    the hospitals can do something for those that need it, like ventilators if they have them

    most will not need ventilators or beds, but many will, or they will die
     
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2020
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  14. jay runner

    jay runner Banned

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    China had no new cases yesterday, factories are reopening, people are going back to work, and their stock market looks good. From this distance with the limited info I can get, their efforts don't appear to be too shabby.

    I saw a vid where somebody in Wuhan didn't want to stay quarantined. They had metal doors on their house, which were promptly welded up. It appears that quarantine works pretty damn well.
     
  15. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    And.....? Those people are NOT worth a great depression. I think because this financial damage is only observable in the future, this is a thread that'll be revisited around July/August, when we start seeing inflationary results.

    And when you're like "holy crap", then I'll ask again: Was a new great depression worth those few people?
     
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  16. Badaboom

    Badaboom Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The depression will only happen because the economy is tied up in the stock market lottery. Remove wall street, make all the company privatelly owned and you'll not have a crash. A few less well managed company will fold, but the rest will make it through fine. The problem comes from the stock holders, those who profits from company without putting any effort and who can send the market in a death spirral with a sneeze.
     
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  17. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    I said to compare how a stock rises(and drops) to how we're talking about flattening the curve. I did not use it in an economic context. I am not worried about the stock market financially.

    I am worried about the pure negative destruction to the dollar. We embraced 1928-style policies financially, and it's going to cripple us. You know why? It's not just us, the whole world followed suit! This is going to be bad, very, very bad. And we can only hope these policies are in the short term. Because a long term is just not sustainable.
     
  18. Badaboom

    Badaboom Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The world survived the 1929 crash, it'll survive this one too.
    The world is past due for a correction anyway. The USA may not be on top when everything gets back to normal, but as any other hegemony, you had your run, time to let somebody else drive a bit. It doesn't hurt all that much, ask the UK and France.
     
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  19. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    I'm not even concerned about the 'hegemony' of the US. And while yes, we need a correction I'm convinced that if not for this incident we were going to have a much softer one. Now because of this asinine plan(the Surgeon General just went renegade on 15 days and to expect more.). it's going to be 5-10 X worse financially.

    This isn't about our world status, it's not about the stocks. I'm only concerned financially with the aftermath. Food rationing, etc. I'm worried about the poor and destitute among us.

    This plan is not the one I would have done, but it's the one we're now stuck with. And I'm afraid it will have the most long term consequences.
     
  20. Badaboom

    Badaboom Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Some will fall, other will pick up the slack. Europe went through two world wars and yet they survived. You'll survive too. Beside the poor, as sad as it may sound, are used to get by with nothing. There not the one who'll suffer the most. I speak from personnal experience since my father and mother both grew up during the great depression and myself was dirt poor for more than half of my life. No it's the "nouveaux riches" those bellow the millionaires buut over the middle class. Those don't have the survival instinct of the poor or the ressources of the filthy rich.

    In this episode, I may end up losing my house or retirement plan but I don't care, I'll survive. I know how to manage and live with nothing of my own. It was fun while it last, but like life, fun has an end.
     
  21. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/...is-demand-shock.html?utm_source=pocket-newtab

    The NYT has graciously(lol) allowed us peons to subscribe for free during this coronavirus saga, which allowed me access to this article on the stupidity of this plan.

    Let me repeat: The NEW YORK TIMES. This isn't a left/right issue. This is something that's incredibly stupid. There's no amount of hospital beds that's worth the trillions of dollars lost, and it's not just demand, it's also supply as well.(There's just no way to convert all of that food for example into serviceable goods.)

    We've never hamstrung both consumption and service to this degree in our history. And to top it off with an inflationary stimulus package.

    Anyone who understands finances knows that this plan has just put us in a world of ****. Tariffs? Pfft. The Tariff plan didn't come even a facsimile of the losses we're going to experience. The only thing the President's prior actions have relevant to this time, is I would definitely loosen up tariffs(at least loosen up one thing on the economy) but it wouldn't matter that much anyway: We're in quarantine, what good does more goods do to a suspended economy?

    I really, really hate this plan and let me put it into prospective: China still has new cases. It's not like they stopped it. Death by a thousand cuts, followed by a global depression.

    And all to save hospital beds.
     
  22. Badaboom

    Badaboom Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    And to those that think the warmer weather will kill off Covid-19... Well, NO! Not according to are health experts here. It may go dormant for a couple of months in the warmer climate at best, but it'll still be there. And as they say: Those summer flu are the bitch... Being sick and having a fever in 95+ degree heat... Not fun.
     
  23. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    Which is why I want to get to the peak as fast as possible. So that we can curve down that much quicker. This death by a thousand cuts is not viral control. It's insanity defined. We'll never be able to 'flatten the curve'. We'll just get sicker for longer, slower and to delay the pain we'll be feeling.
     
  24. HereWeGoAgain

    HereWeGoAgain Banned

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    Based on what we know so far, it is estimated that as much as 80% of Americans will get the virus - 240 million.
    20% of those will get very sick - 48 million
    30% of those will need hospitalization - 16 million
    and about 30% of those die - just over 5 million.

    Around 20-30,000 people a year die from each of flu, guns, and auto accidents.

    So this is like having 200 years of deaths from any of these in a matter of perhaps 18 months.

    There are just under a million hospital beds in the US and 60-80% of those are normally occupied. It isn't like everyone else is going to stop having heart attacks, strokes, injuries, etc.

    If this can't be controlled, we are going to have dead bodies in the streets. So you seriously think the economy is going to just chug along? Are people just going to step over the dead body blocking the door at Starbucks? You have no sense of the magnitude of this thing if it completely runs away. It is potentially apocalyptic. And every day we can stretch it out is another day to move patients through the hospital phase as well as to make more medical equipment. It helps reduce the degree to which medical workers are overwhelmed. And most importantly, it gives us time for a vaccine and/or a cure to be developed and tested.
     
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2020
  25. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    Funny thing about those graphs and numbers: It never plays that way in real life. The Chinese stopped it at 80K. Even with our rising numbers, we're simply catching up to what appears to be the stop point. Of course, this all depends on us believing the Chinese are actually telling us the truth but let's believe that as compared to the idea of 240 million Americans will get this virus and that 5 million of us will die.
     

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