Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Statistikhengst, Mar 14, 2020.

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  1. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I think I have to just start putting these idiots on ignore. It's both sides of the coin that are driving me insane. The left wing loons who are blaming the entire disease on Trump, including the unemployment and DOW, and the right wing nuts who claim this is all a left-wing plot to control us. Blech.
     
  2. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    We have had now 3 cases in Montezuma County, one of them died.

    I have good news from my oldest employee. She still feels like crap and when I talked to her yesterday she asked to come by and shoot her.
    We got her a appointment at a clinic. Her lung scan looked rather good, the doc things she has a appendix problem.
    82 and your appendix screws you up, oh well.
    I put the gun away, till next time.
     
  3. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I'm reading reports from people around the state. Some churches are doing the right things; a very few at a time, drive by mass, tele-mass, etc., but some are full on Brother Love's Travelling Salvation Show out there..... sheesh.
     
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  4. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Is she getting surgery? I assume your resources aren't taxed, yet.
     
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2020
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  5. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    That's not the point of the article about modelling. We should be staying home as the government is recommending...and/or forcing with ordinances. The point of the article is that people see a frightening model and that causes them to change their behavior. Then the results turn out to be far less dramatic (or maybe far more dramatic) than the model showed because people did change their behavior and that effected a better-or-worse than predicted result. But human nature, instead of realizing that the model was never supposed to be an immoveable "right or wrong" tool but that their own behavior determined the outcome, will end up blaming the model for "being wrong".
     
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2020
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  6. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    I just talked to my business partner.
    We agreed that will keep all the measures in our company, till there is a vaccine. Safety zone for employees, hand wash station, face shield and mask for our employees, the 6 feet rule, we ask our customers to have a face mask on and keep on the disinfecting routine we have after closing and the extreme cleaning we do during the day.
    We agreed, ones there is a vaccine we would make it mandatory for us and all our employees, they have to show proof and we would pay for it if needed.
    Our very strict rules are becoming a sales argument. We have customers calling us and wanting to know what measures we have implemented and having been in front of the curve pays now for the company and its employees. Employee moral is rather good, first they thought the old ugly guy was going over board, the flue, but now they feel rather confident.
    I have one little advantage, I can read 4 languages, speak 2 fluent and one oh well. I read every morning for 2 hours 8 papers on-line, in 4 languages. It kept me one step ahead.
    Luckily, as for now.
     
  7. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Very interesting and it is somewhat comforting to know that they did not suddenly lose an extra 800 people in 24 hours.. If you have a source for that bit of news, please let us know.
     
  8. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    I really like Germans. I think they'll step up.
     
  9. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    At 82, her operation will be covered by medi and she has a plan B, the girl is rather well covered
    Any operation at that age is a risk, my appendix scare is 10 inches long, today it is a 2 inch affair.

    For me, just one problem that can go from red to a rather yellow orange.

    I actually do not care about any financials when one of my folks has a problem. I do what is needed.
    Its the old fashion way.
     
  10. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You, sir, deserve a round of applause. Thank you for what you are doing.
     
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  11. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    stat

    I felt there had to be a mistake in the French figures. Such an explosion is beyond any of the figures we have seen, would be novel.
     
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  12. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    No, I do not deserve any applause, none at all.
    I just used my skills to stay ahead and be better educated about this sucker than the people around me. Its self preservation, for myself, my partner and my employees and naturally my company.
    I have a chance to survive financially keep the company going, save my employees from having to file and than wait 6 to 8 weeks to get any money, being broke every payday.
    No, no applause for me, give it to my employees, they hang in there and serve the public.
     
  13. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    We're likely to see a similar spike in the U.S. soon, not in deaths, but in total case numbers. At the daily briefing, Dr. Birx noted there is a new backlog. She said 1.3 million tests have been done and analyzed, but she only has reports back for 660,000, about half. With states running at 8% to 35% positive, that's going to be a lot of positives when those labs send in results in addition to continued daily ramping of new tests.

    We are expecting the death to start increasing very quickly the next two weeks, sadly, but hopefully we won't see a huge single-day spike.
     
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  14. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    More "colors" for you....

    Split groupings of Asia, Middle East, and North American countries:

    [​IMG]


    Split grouping of European and African countries:

    [​IMG]


    Source: Yaneer Bar-Yam
     
  15. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    Good for you. You protect yourself and your family, too, by keeping your employees healthy.

    Procedures for meeting with customers, interacting with each other, receiving goods, and on and on--you're better off going sooner than later, giving yourself a chance to get the kinks out of procedures before they matter.
    If you did the right thing a month ago, you could be a hero. Two weeks ago, and they think you're smart guy.
     
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  16. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    Not sure what you're saying. We can with strict mitigation, testing, quarantines, etc. hold down the number of infections and dead.
     
  17. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  18. nobodyspecific

    nobodyspecific Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Good evening. As has been covered already, France had a massive spike in deaths today. Up to 1,355 from yesterday's 509. This is the note on worldometers:

    I can think of no better opportunity to talk about just how much we don't know than today. However, first let's cover what we do know:

    apr-2-officialnumbers.png
    According to official numbers at least, Italy appears to have experienced their maximum new deaths per day in Mar 27 - Mar 28. This represents 18-19 days after the lockdown in Lombardy. Roughly the timeline I was expecting based on the China data, although I am surprised it would occur so shortly after new cases stopped going up (7 days prior). Note that Spain is currently on day 18-19 of their lockdown. Hopefully we see that start to see their daily death toll go back down soon.

    Italy also has an improving active case change at this point. Still more cases per day than closed cases, but averaging down from the 4000's to the 2000's. Iran has been stable in the 2.9-3.1K new case range for a week now. So they have mercifully stopped their incline at this point and gone back to flat. Only time will tell if they can start going back down this time, or will simply accelerate again like they did from the 1-1.3K range. On the subject of cases, the UK and Germany have disappointingly had some significant sustained accelerations.

    Turning back to France for a moment, take a look at the new case #'s that have been coming out. From 4K, 2K, 4K, 7K, 4K, 2K. What the hell?? Literally no other nation is oscillating that wildly. It gets at the heart of what we're dealing with when looking at these numbers - ultimately they are unreliable. Without the extra 884 deaths France reported, they would have been at 471, or pretty much in line with the last couple of days. How many of those occurred today vs yesterday vs a week ago? We don't know. The same problem exists even in data that has been getting reported daily:

    apri-2-serious_crit.png
    Here's a comparison I threw together with the nations that were keeping track of Serious / Critical at the time I added them to my sheet. Iran, Belgium, and Germany data has since been added to worldometers, but they don't have historical data for this. I haven't bothered to add them yet. The UK still has no up to date information.

    Notice how even among nations that were reporting this regularly, it's become abundantly obvious Netherlands has stopped, and Italy is not reporting almost any change day to day. I find it hard to believe there is only a change of +20 serious / critical patients per day given they still have +2K net active cases per day, but that's what's being reported.

    On the subject of what we don't know, we know that there was a backlog in US testing that resulted in the current explosion. And now there is another backlog. We know there is already rationing of who can receive a COVID-19 test due to lack of supplies. It has been done in Spain, the US, Iran, and tons of other countries. Deaths have been under-reported almost without question in Italy, China, and today we can add France. Basically you can go down the list of every hotspot nation, and quite a few that are not currently hotspots (Indonesia, Russia, Egypt, India, the list goes on). And we still have no great answers on just how many people are asymptomatic to the virus (and remain asymptomic) or develop symptoms later.

    So, what can we gleam from all this lack of knowledge? Even if the figures of any one nation are incomplete, we can trust the trends. The way in which things are reported within a given nation should at least be mostly consistent. Italy's numbers today compare with Italy's numbers yesterday, and the day before, and so on. Whatever makes a nation's "official" numbers are at least mostly internally consistent. From that, we can figure out some trends. We can see how long it took China to go from lockdown -> maximum daily new cases -> maximum daily deaths -> deceleration in active cases. We can see by what % official numbers are going up to see how quickly things are getting bad or less bad.

    The numbers, whatever they are, for whatever country, there are more. However many were infected and died after this is all over, what is the real mortality % for a given person infected with the virus, that is going to be a job for the WHO and CDC to estimate. All we can say for sure is the official numbers are bad enough that they continue to grow at an unsustainable level in far too many places around the world.

    That's it for tonight. I'll try to put together another comparison of the US states tomorrow (Saturday at latest).

    As always, you can find this stuff I track on my sheet here.
     
    Last edited: Apr 3, 2020
  19. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Thanks. Why are you not following Sweden ??? They are employing a herd immunity strategy and keeping their economy open. They have experienced ~ 300 deaths to date. On a death per million of population they are doing fairly well.
     
  20. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    We live in a global society, so it doesn't matter in the long run if the US copies the SK model completely because any country which fails to completely crush this virus poses a future risk to the US.

    I agree with you in the short run that copying the SK model has tremendous value, but that's what he is referencing when he said we need the whole world to copy it as well.
     
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  21. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure how you can justify "fairly well" for Sweden. They rank 33rd in terms of cases per million of population (eliminate the absurdly small "countries" like Vatican City, and they rank 19th), but they rank 12th in terms of deaths per million of population.

    And given that deaths are a lagging indicator and the last two days were each new records for Sweden (both single day new cases and single day deaths), we should expect the number of deaths to continue increasing.
     
  22. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Also Dr. Walter Ricciardi, the Italian science adviser to the Italian health ministry, has stated that they have reclassified deaths there and only 12% can attributed to Corona virus. The 88% died of serious conditions with the Corona virus.
     
    Last edited: Apr 3, 2020
  23. bigfella

    bigfella Well-Known Member

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    Compared to nations with comparable case numbers they are doing terribly. Norway & Australia have similar case numbers and have 50 & 26 deaths respectively. Brazil has a similar number of dead but 8000+ cases (and a third world medical system). Nations such as Sth Korea, Austria & Canada have all done dramatically better so far given their case numbers, and Germany is off the charts successful.

    Even using a per million calculation Sweden is doing poorly. So, if their strategy is getting 30 deaths per million I'll take my nation's lockdown strategy, which is getting 4 per million.
     
  24. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I’m looking at deaths per million.
     
  25. bigfella

    bigfella Well-Known Member

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    We have tried to do that in our own way & the results are good so far. I'm still waiting for our deaths to spike, but the increase in cases per day has been steadily down for the whole week, so fingers crossed.
     

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