Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Just a note on the beds needed on the model. Those are beds on the model are predicted as needed for COVID patients not counting beds for non-COVID patients.

In that case, if the prediction for New York is correct, then most of the beds would be full of COVID patients, leaving very few for anyone else.

So there's that....

I'm waiting impatiently to see how the models update today after no updates since Wednesday.

 

Well, if we don't, at least we'll have more beds and ventilators.

 

Someone mentioned a decrease in car accidents. I wonder if the slack in this sort of emergency is being taking up by domestic violence, alcohol or drug related incidents?

 

Another Times Square shot....

 

Yes. That's been mentioned (and asked by reporters) in the daily briefings, as well as depression.

There's more "love" with some couples getting to stay home from work and there's more "hate" with other couples being forced to stay home from work. I can imagine the number of children in the house and not in school would also impact family tranquility (or angst).

 

Who is removing anything ?? I’m saying that the preconditions group should be defined and quantified by the fatality data so as to inform those in those groups that they are at elevated risk. That would save lives. And would be easy to do.

 

Plus the capability of teachers to detect possible child abuse is now missing. I saw a survey yesterday which indicated that 40% of those asked were experiencing higher levels of anxiety.

 

Why assume that ?? And if the percentage is as high as it is in Italy that would be alarming in a good way.

Older people. But a greater percentage of older people have serious preconditions.

 

Very soon, models will no longer be needed. Soon, the battle of COVID-2020 begins.

 

With 2 hours left in my day, here a sure sign that curve is picking up again (unfortunately). This morning my time, around 08:30, we crossed over the 1.1 million line and we are now only 7,000 COVID-cases away from the 1.2 million line. Today, there have already been +97,611 new cases. Most likely we will set another horrifying record and for the first time, go over 100,000 new verified COVID-19 cases in one day. Right now, it's stands at 1,192,618 cases.

The growth rate, right now, is already larger than it was yesterday:

 

For the first time since COVID-19 has attacked our world, we just literally, in this moment, crossed over +100,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases in just one day's time. With 19 minutes left to go in my day, you will see the numbers in my report. Folks, we just entered 6-digit territory in daily new cases, unfortunately, exactly as I predicted (more than once right here on this thread) would happen.

 

*1,196,097*
+101,090 cases today over yesterday​

So, at end of my day, 11:57 PM on April 4th, 2020 (GMT +2), the COVID-19 numbers:



Today, we came in less than 4,000 cases under the 1.2 million mark. Just this morning, we blew past the 1.1 million mark itself. The day before, we sprang over the 1 million mark. For the first time, we added 100,000+ confirmed COVID-19 cases in just one day. That is more cases than the entire total that was recorded every day up to March 6th, 2020.

This morning, we crossed over, unfortunately, 60,000 deaths. More details below.

One hopeful sign is that the mortality rate might not be rising very much any more. Today it landed at 5.40% (It was 5.37% yesterday at EOD). But one single day does not make a trend.

The Excel-Table back to 02/27 (you will notice, the table now fills up the entire screenshot, soon I will need 2 to cover the table):



In the raw numbers, there were considerably more new cases today over yesterday (+101,090) as compared to yesterday over the day before (+85,280). Four days in a row, the % growth rate decreased. However, today, it increased again, to +9.23%. An increase in the growth rate speeds up the exponentiality of the curve.

In terms of deaths: 64,546 total, +5,760 today over yesterday, making for a 9.80% growth rate (yesterday: 11.22%), is possibly a positive sign because the growth rate went down some. Wait and see if it becomes a trend.

The % of recovered people actually ticked downward somewhat, from 20.83% yesterday to 20.58% at EOD today.

And per country, most of the countries, first per total cases, in descending numerical order:







There are now 57 nations in the "thousand club", with Egypt and Estonia crossing over the 1,000 line today. Of those 57, 17 are in the "10,000 club" and 3 of them are at 100,000 or more (USA, Italy, Spain). Germany will very likely cross over the 100,000 line by then end of day tomorrow (Sunday). Slovenia, New Zealand, Morroco, Iraq and Hong Kong are up next to cross the 1,000 line, either tomorrow or Friday.

And here, per new deaths today, in descending numerical order. France and the USA had the most deaths today:



At the end of the day, France reported 1,053 deaths just for today. France also went over 1,000 yesterday and the day before, but the report was that a goodly amount of that was deaths from days previous from retirement homes that had not been reported yet. It remains to be seen whether that is also the case today. The USA, with 973 deaths, was the nation with the second most misery today. Surely by the end of the day in the USA, that number will once again go over 1,000.

Soon, we will be jumping by considerably more than 100,000 cases and more than 10,000 deaths per day. WE MUST FLATTEN THE CURVE.

-Stat

 

I thought that a interesting write up.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...death-rate-is-low/ar-BB129Xgp?ocid=spartandhp

 

Germans all pull together.

 

The most important thing I took out of this write up, how early they developed a c19 test and now ready they were with testing when the crap hit the fan.
And how rapidly they increase their hard core ICU beds and they already had a lot of them.

 

The explosion in new cases vs yesterday are almost entirely made up with the revision of France's numbers yesterday (after both our posts):



From Worldometers:

So the additional deaths from retirement homes were captured in your stats last night, but not the new cases. Hence the jump today. Not that 80K+ new infections even without that is any better a sign. It is annoying that France's release of this data in mass dumps mucks up ongoing analysis, but will all even out in the end.

 

...Still....waiting....

 

How does it save lives?

 

Those with the high risk pre conditions groups informed by the granulated fatality data would take extraordinary actions to self isolate and sanitize thus saving lives.

 

Theoretically, but wouldn't that marginal benefit get negated by those without high risk pre-conditions engaging in ordinary (i.e. risky) behavior that would make it more likely to spread the virus even to those who are taking extraordinary steps to self-isolate and sanitize?