Only 46,062 Corona Virus Deaths World Wide

April 2009 to January 2010 is a year? You need a new calendar.

 

No, I told you the endpoint was Feb 28. Stick to what you know and leave the math to experts

So are you still denying the seriousness of this pandemic? Do you still think it is just the flu?

 

Are you still snickering?

 

So your growth curve is not applicable? Is that what you're saying? You really can't quantify your "exponential growth"?

You tried. I plugged in the numbers.
You realised you were wrong.
Oh well. Better luck next time

 

46,000 on April 1
64,691 as of now.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

In the US, as of yesterday we had 1328 deaths yesterday
The Federal Government is projecting that we will have 1,360 today and so far we are at 1048 with several hours left, so we'll probably make it.
1,529 on the fifth

That's more deaths than 9/11 in 3 days.

1,699 dead on 4/6
1,865 on 4/7

So that a 9/11 in 2 days

That is projected to build until 4/16 with 2,644 deaths and then a crest. So nearly a 9/11 every day in about 9 days?

Whatever label you hang on this, is seems bad to me.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

 

As of today, April 5th:




So today there were 280 reported new cases and 2 new deaths. So I'm curious what the time component is for this exponential increase.

 

If that were true then COVID-19 deaths should cluster around FOX/Rush listening and viewing areas. Instead, the epicenter of infections seems to be New York City.

Man...NPR is going to sued out of existence!

 

The 1,000-Bed Comfort Was Supposed to Aid New York. It Has 20 Patients.

 

Setting aside that the 280/2 number is "so far" in the US and will almost certainly end up somewhere a little north of 30K/1K for today...

Just to be clear, I was discussing the number of deaths for the entire planet. You can see that number is now around 66,500. That graph I posted for you was dated as of March 31st. Since that point, the world has added ~24,000 deaths. In other words, the number of dead grew by more than 50% and that really puts the whole basis of this thread to shame, doesn't it?

Now, if you'd like to review the exponential growth curve for the US (in terms of cases), I would point you to some work done by @HereWeGoAgain that he crafted and explained at this post: http://www.politicalforum.com/index.php?threads/corona-virus-update.569413/page-91#post-1071564594

The exponent has decreased a little bit from that point, but it still looks like n = 300e^.1984(t), where n represents the number of cases in the US, e is a constant and t is 35 days, as of yesterday.

That formula yields a result of 311,072 US cases, which matches the worldofmeters recorded mark of 311,357 pretty closely.

 

So we're still on track for 200,000 US deaths?

 

Is that your way of saying, this is the only pandemic so far that the prez of the USA used a Navy ship to use as a potential hospital?

 

A short answer is "Yes."

For a longer answer:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...ase-coronavirus-forecasts-are-very-far-apart/

 

No it's my way of responding to your statement that "Anyone who is comparing this to past pandemic is not looking at the growth speed of the virus. How many past pandemics needed Navy ships set up as hospitals?"

 

Today isn't over, and it's unlikely that even all of yesterday's deaths have been entered by all 50 states.

So let's look at the expected cumulative death count for 4/3/20 in the Executive Branch charting.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

As of 4/3 they projected a mid-line assumption of 7,004 with a spread of 6,664-7,300.

Actual cumulative numbers of death is 7,121, so their mid-line is under-counting through the 3rd by about a percent and a half. Hopefully that trend doesn't continue. If you add a percent and half to their mid-line projection of 95,000 dead, it's additional 1,400 dead.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

It's about 5 days from infection to symptoms, and in fatal cases, another 18 days to death. So there is a 23 day lag in this data.

The deaths that occur today are roughly based on quality of social distancing that person was practicing on 3/13/20. To me it seemed like folks taking this very seriously by the 13th were very much in the minority. That would change a great deal over the next two weeks, but the deaths that will be taking place based on the social distancing practices on 3/27/20 won't be counted for another two weeks.

As of now new cases today have climbed to 21,660 with new deaths now at 1,076, and unfortunately still far too many hours to go in the day.

I share your disbelief at what is happening, it's incomprehensible. It's in the hands of our front-line medical people, hopefully there is a game-changing treatment protocol that reveals itself that can be rapidly implemented in time to substantially alter our current trajectory.

In the time I typed that, recorded new cases climbed to 21,816 and recorded deaths today to 1,084. Lord have mercy.

 

And the answer is 1.
This one.
The covid-19 pandemic. And tRUMP is prez that is using Navy ships for the 1st time ever.

As every good leader should do is prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

 

If that were the growth curve, it would have been in effect since day 1. .
Our first documented infection was jan 19
T=75
And surely there were many more infections on that day than just the one discovered. But just starting from 1, what is e^ 15.6736 ?

 

You don't need mercy, you need a universal isolation protocol and full shut down of all national and state borders, and you need to implement it as a legal obligation, NOW. Failure to comply resulting in charges.

Get serious about it - like South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, etc. The UK is starting to get serious, thankfully.

 

The UK has 73 deaths per million. The US has 29/M, your urging that we look to them as an example doesn't make a lot of sense.

Those other nations that you listed do have much better records.

 

There is zero requirement that the growth curve be the exact same the entire time that infections took place. Exponential growth is not going to take place because there is one case in a lab. It happens when there is community spread/

 

One thing I will note, you quoted the Executive Branch charting "as of 4/3," but you should note that the last update took place on 4/1 and despite the banner saying that they would update on April 4th, it has only just now been updated.

And their midline death projection has gone down to 81,766. How that happened when the daily death count each day exceeded their estimate for the day is beyond me. Perhaps the updates to the state level decisions to embrace some of the epidemic containment steps (like Florida and Georgia issuing Stay at Home orders)?

 

So you didn't read the article, or the headline apparently.

 

I know this is the 1st pandemic ever to have Navy's ships brought out to act as hospitals to alleviate the strain on hospitals.

 

It's the first pandemic in which we've shut down the entire economy. This is filled with firsts. The point about the Navy ship was that it didn't seem to be needed. You seemed to have missed that rather crucial point but heh, par for the course I guess.

 

No I don't, and the swine flu which Obama did nothing about killed babies and children, do you not get that? And he did nothing. But you are fine with that aren't you? But apparently 97 percent of the states have to be closed for a virus that has a low mortality rate to make you feel good and more safe. Hmmmm, I wonder why. This virus kills ONL elderly with prior medical conditions, and younger people who have diabetes, lupus, COPD. If you are healthy, you will recover. The flu turns into pneumonia too and has killed people with weakened immune systems.

This virus is more infectious but the mortality rates are low compared to the number of positive cases and the number of recovered cases. But the DNC media NEVER reveal those numbers. They are so giddy when they heard the stupid Pentagon was ordering 100,000 body bags. U.S. total deaths have not even reached 10,000 yet, and I'm sure that is disappointing to you. The fear mongering is a lie, and this time there is a treatment for this virus via the malaria drug which is also used to treat lupus. And the president outrages all these doomsday fanatics every time he mentions it. The models are all wrong. Cuomo announced they have lower death rates and now have plenty of beds, which mean less ventilators are needed. Isn't that good news?

No, I don't think the states with low numbers should be closed. Some are not, and Missouri is one of them. They have no spike in cases which will disappoint you and everyone else that wants the shutdown to continue to further damage the economy that President Trump created.

 

Yes, as soon as they revealed only 20 beds were being used on this hospital ship, Cuomo announces that the hospitals are not overflowing and the mortality rates are going down. Now we don't have to listen to him grousing about needing 30,000 ventilators. His little fear mongering campaign should be ended. Next it will be New Orleans announcing everyone is dying.