Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

That is confusing to people who may have a certain person on ignore, to whom you may be replying to, because then we only see your quote of yourself, but not the input of the other, ähm, person....

You are one of the few people who quotes himself as a preface to a response from someone else. I actually think it is quite brilliant and I am going to make a suggestion to the admin of PF about possibly color-coding self-quotes in a different color in the case of multiple-quoting. I understand why you are doing it. You are doing it so show part of the flow of the conversation up to the point of the quote from the member to whom you are going to respond to now.

 

So, that excuses him? De Blazio failing to close NY schools makes it okay?

 

Yes, but you just provided the solution to the problem. The solution has always been there. It's called the ignore function. Then those who troll are starved of oxygen and the problem resolves itself. Should really gross content happen among the ignored, well, that is why we have high quality mods who know how to exercise their function.

It is true, I cannot see what some people are writing, but I have already discounted them, precisely because they have trolled. That is my perogative, since life is short.

On the other hand, there are a number of people from "the other side" where, whom I have not put on ignore, because they are contributing information and have sometimes challenged my thoughts in a very positive way. After all, isn't that what debate is supposed to be here for?

So, instead of *sigh*, use the ignore function when absolutely necessary. It is there precisely to help to separate the wheat from the chaff and therefore, to focus debate like a laser.

 

That can happen.

Yep.

 

What DeBlasio did is absolutely inacceptable. But then again, with such a huge public-school system in a city with a ton of public workers (police, fire, EMT, health care, power, water, trash pickup, etc), there was also the big danger of a number of young people who are infected staying home and then infecting mom and dad (who work maybe for the city), who then infect grandma and grandpa. Even Gov. Cuomo noted that the massive school closings, because they happened so late, may have actually increased the risk for some families. But these things are always a danger in an epidemic/pandemic.

 

My own semi rural neck of the woods is calm. The Stay at Home seems to be working with the majority of people abiding by it with relatively few incidents of individuals behaving badly. This probably has more to do with the fact that most of us are in the high risk group and therefore taking it seriously. Social media contact has increased significantly which is only to be expected.

Personally I find myself in a strange sort of limbo situation as far as the virus goes. I do not have any fever so I do not qualify for being tested but I do have some of the other symptoms as defined by the WHO.

https://www.who.int/publications-de...with-mild-symptoms-and-management-of-contacts

I am not completely asymptomatic and the symptoms I do have cannot be explained away as being caused by allergies, flu, sinus infection or a cold. Ultimately I want to be tested just to find out for myself but the overall malaise and the timing all coincide with being infected. So I consider myself to be one of the lucky 80% even though I fall into the high risk category.

Needless to say my primary concern is that I have infected my nearest and dearest who live with me. I have done as much as I can to "social distance" and taken all of the recommended precautions but even then mistakes can and do happen. Going to be hard to live with myself if anything happens to them.

This is a strange new world where we are drawn together by our shared peril and need to protect each other in order to stay safe ourselves. Perhaps it is the anxiety of not knowing what the final outcome will be that makes it so strange. Like so many others on this thread I am a data nerd and learning new things is what keeps me positive.

We have an opportunity within this peril to become a better society, one that is more caring and willing to help our less fortunate brethren. Facing our own mortality puts possessions into perspective. They are of less importance than the relationships we have with each other.

If we stop thinking in terms of "earning a living" where work takes precedence over everything else and success at work equals "winning" and instead realize that we only need to work in order to pay the bills and genuine success is having a loving relationship with your spouse and family which is the ultimate "winning" when it comes to having "a life worth living".

 

BINGO

 

Very good idea on your part. I ride every day and go with my dogs 3 times a day, separately. Fresh air and sunlight are important.

As for beaches and distance, I would like to say something about that, but first I will research a detail.

 

YEPP

YEPP (but it's not called the Spanish Flu...)

YEPP

YEPP

YEPP

...and...

YEPP

 

Racism, racial dogwhistling and bigotry have no place on this or any thread. Basta.

 

Well, if you can't take them "serious", maybe you could instead take them seriously.

 

Overnight, 72 Americans have already died from COVID-19:



Also, China added +32 new COVID-19 cases. The stats in China are still moving, only, very, very slowly. At least that's the official line from the Chinese gubbermint.

 

This virus is dying out

 

80,000 deaths? Let's compare that to the UK:

The UK government released figures of 15,000 deaths from flu. Now let's look into this figure. What is the actual confirmed figure? The answer is 372 deaths from flu. Now why the difference? The answer is "So the government are now apparent not only blaming fluctuations in winter mortality on flu but all excess winter mortality on flu, to the the tune of more than 50,000 deaths."

Now why would the government give out false data? The answer is to hide how many people die from other causes such as neglect, starvation, lack of heating etc. The Corona virus is a confirmed killing of tens of thousands of people directly due to the virus

https://www.bmj.com/content/361/bmj.k2795/rr-6

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...est-level-40-years-experts-blame-ineffective/

https://www.theguardian.com/society...-people-dying-from-flu-in-uk-than-last-winter

Now do you really think that the US had 80,000 deaths from flu when there were only 372 deaths from flu in the UK?. The US government are reporting high seasonal flu deaths for exactly the same reason that the UK government was. This low number of flu deaths explains why hospitals were not over run from seasonal flu care, make shift morgues were not used, doctors and nurses were not dying after catching seasonal flu from patients etc etc

 

If people are REALLY, TRULY interesting in reading factual information about the ups and downs of Chloroquine / Hydroxychloroquine as possibly life-saving therapeutics, then you need to read the material that PAHO has amassed:

https://www.paho.org/en/documents/covid-19-chloroquine-and-hydroxychloroquine-research

Here is the direct download to the .pdf itself:

https://www.paho.org/en/file/62150/download?token=5UHTQJ3M

PAHO = Pan American Health Organisation, under the umbrella of the WHO.
It makes eminent sense that PAHO is leading the data gathering for this, because the tree-bark that is used to make quinine comes from South America.

Some critical information, at first glance:

PAHO did an intensive search for all documentation relating to both Chloroquine / Hydroxychloroquine, back to 1996 (24 years of research). They did not limit their search to any specific type of study, no matter how large or small.

They found 563 peer-review based studies (557 online, 6 pre-internet or simply not published on the internet). So, it's not as if the drugs have not been researched. They have.

As of March 11, 2020 - there are 30 new studies ongoing right now.

Some in vitro (inside the test tube) studies are showing that the drugs can be effective both at entry and exit of the virus to and from the body. This is a very, very important point, I would think, very positive.

The most recent study out of china with circa 100 patients claims that chloroquine reduces the severity of pneumonia or at least delays the symptoms, thus winning time, which in mild cases, could certainly mean the difference between beating the virus or dying from it.

The study was not a blind-study, much less a double-blind study. But it does indicate that Hydroxychloroquine has shown to be more effective than Chloroquine itself and even recommend a dosis (only by doctor's orders) of 400 mg 2X/daily at the onset, then 200 mg 2X/daily as maintenance drug. The Dutch have been going with 600 mg 2x/day, with 300 mg 2X/day for 2-5 days maximum afterward and either the drug helps, or not.

The French study from March 6th, 2020 included Azithromycin (part of the penicillin group) in the study, which many are now calling the "Z-PAK" treatment. There were 36 out of 42 patients in the study, which showed that Z-Pak was considerably more effective in removing the viral-load from the subjects' bodies. Notice how I wrote that. It can remove the viral-load from the body, but that does not mean that that person has now built up antibodies against another onslaught of COVID-19, similar to the drugs used in the treatment of HIV. The french study is being heavily criticized for a number of reasons, all of which make sense to me immediately, which you can read on pp. 7-8 of the pdf.

Starting on p. 11 of the pdf, the PAHO lists, in table-format, a so-called "Risk of bias assessment observational study designs". This is actually very important, for everyone who is a serious researcher wants his study to pass this assessment with flying colors. No study is absolutely perfect because there are still too many variables that cannot be completely controlled. Instead of boring the hell out of you with every detail, go and read some of the risk assessment in order to see what peers are saying "whoa, slow down that horse on Hydroxychloroquine". Here is a screenshot of part of the table:



Actually, they have far more to say about the studies than just this, in fact, they have a separate .pdf document just for the risk of bias assessment to show how they did it:

https://www.evidencepartners.com/wp...-to-Assess-Risk-of-Bias-in-Cohort-Studies.pdf

This material is important to read in order to understand why people should not automatically assume that either drug or the Z-PAK is going to save them (you really need to read this stuff) or hurt them, it's from p. 14 in the pdf:



Remember, in vitro studies are not nearly as effective as in vivo studies.


pp. 14-15 concern themselves with the toxicity of both drugs, especially for people with specific eye problems (macular retinopathy) and heart problems (arrhtyhmia, problems with fibriliation) - especially when azithromycin is added to the mix. Studies going back to 2006 show that the drugs are absolutely not a good idea for people with ventricular problems. Interestingly enough, patients with heart problems AND Lupus have been able to take the drug without it killing their hearts, at least in some cases.

A positive current assessment is that these problems do not appear to be happening with pregnant women, which is in and of itself proof positive that COVID-19 is attacking younger people.

Also, people with arthritis are far more at risk of dying if they take hydroxychloroquine. So, this means that a number of older people are probably not going to be helped by this therapeutic. On a postive sign, people who have already taken hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for Lupus and who have now contracted COVID-19 seem to be healing. So, perhaps experience with the drug over a long time may also be a help. Seems logical to me, but then again, I could be way off here.

OF THE 563 STUDIES I MENTIONED ABOVE, there is to-date only one single study that was a double-blind study, from Singapore, and here is the quick analysis of how that went (pp. 18-19):




The summary, on page 19, says exactly what Dr. Fauci has been saying:



The sentences highlighted in red are especially relevant, imo.

So, until now, we do see some effectiveness with the drug or drugs. Which groups of people would probably not benefit? Well:

1.) People with eye problems
2.) People with heart problems
3.) In the case of the complete Z-PAK treatment, people who are allergic to the penicllin-family of antibiotics

Also, evidence is growing that people with diabetes may be in danger if they take the drug:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/victor...hen-combined-with-diabetes-drug/#3e8156e855f8

Since most people who are morbidly obese also have either diabetes, heart conditions, eye conditions or all three, we can safely say that really fat people are probably not going to benefit from this.

Now, for those who want to poo-poo this stuff as simply crap that the "elite" have written in order to douse gasoline on a wonder-drug, think again. Well, of course they are elite. They are supposed to be elite, this is why they can do what they can do. We want elites to be doing their job just as we want elite athletes to win the olympics.

My take: follow the advice of your doctor. If you are not in an endangered group of people for this drug or drug combination, it really COULD be a good idea, but the WHO and PAHO are clearly indicating that this stuff for this purpose is clearly untested. Also, the use of this as a prophylaxis for health care workers who are young and healthy may indeed be a really good idea. I am for anything that works but doesn't kill a lot of people along the way.

What is a really, really bad idea is having the current President of the United States of America (or any politician, for that matter) touting these drugs as a potential wonder when he himself is no expert on the subject and apparently is unwilling to listen to the advice of the scientists working on the Coronavirus-Taskforce.

Also, because his behavior and mannerisms have caused millions upon millions of people to pretty much hate his guts, by touting these drugs, he may actually achieve the opposite effect, namely, that people who do not trust him on this will not trust the drug, either.

What I am clearly and unmistakeably saying is that the President of the United State himself has politicized this and deliberately, viciously turned this into a partisan-divide where there should be none, likely because he is looking for something to make himself look good. In yesterday's presser, which did not go well, he used the "I" form more than once ("I" saved them, "I" made this economy great, etc). So, my point stands.

If Donald J. Trump really wants this to work - and frankly, I would be delighted if Hydroxychloroquine is a huge part of the solution until a vaccine can be found, then he (and we) would be far better served if he just keeps his mouth shut and lets the experts do their jobs. Bragging about "we have stockpiled 29.2 million pills" and "I" am making sure they are being distributed" is only once again part of the me-me-me-me thing that is exactly what we do not need right now.

Now, if you are a true Trump-supporter, well that is your thing and I am happy for you that you have a viewpoint. But if you REALLY support him and REALLY want him to succeed, then take a good, hard look at what he is doing and how he is doing it, because even Trump supporters are starting to realize that how he is doing it is not good, it it not right. Believe me, if and when we come through this, I will most definitely praise the decisions he made that helped. But for the love of G-d, he needs to cut the crap on the me-me-me-me-me stuff.

At the rate this is going, if COVID-19 doesn't kill us, then the hatred that he deliberately sows will.

Oh, and as we can see, Dr. Fauci was right all along.

-Stat

 

tribal drums? good lord, just because a referenced person doesn't happen to be irish lily white doesnt mean that immediately 150,000 words become unusable in a sentence, especially when its specifically related to partisanship.

not meaning to offend if you dont know what tribal drums references you've been drinking the partisan waters too long yourself.

anyway, my bad, I took the direct attack on my governor personal, shouldn't let that happen, but I very much prefer my sober governor over his corrupt opponent who checked into rehab, I'm weird like that.

 

You just can't hide it, can you now. Funny how that works. That's ok, daylight is a wonderful disinfectant. So are clear and unmistakeable words.

I don't know of 150,000 words that are unusable in a sentence, but I know a racist, bigoted, hateful statement when I read, see or hear one. So, there's that.

And oh well, if you are so attached to "your" governor, well fine. Mebbe hang a nice picture of him in a room, light a couple of nice candles. It's all good with me. Oh, and delighting in the downfall of his erstwhile political opponent is something you surely can do, only, it really has nothing to do with COVID-19, nööööö.

 

The half-day report from Spain is in: 457 people died from COVID-19, probably late last night or in the night.



Spain will update this data again in the evening.

Also, notice that 403 people died in Belgium, setting a horrible new record for a pretty small country.

 

carry on please, I do not wish to derail the thread with a back and forth on this although I desperately want to. I'm going to calm down and grab a cup of coffee instead.

 

It appears as though there could well be an ALTERNATIVE MOTIVE behind his shilling for hydroxychloroquine.

https://twitter.com/RomancingNope/status/1247189603607629825

 

Same thing happened with Tamiflu, "follow the money trail" led directly to Donald Rumsfeld

 

The Cathedral of St. John the Divine in NYC at 110th and Amsterdam is being converted into a field-hospital for COVID-19 patients.

They will be able to care for 200 patients there.

 

Sounds like a plan.

 

We do need to be focusing more on tests conducted, and maybe tests per capita, so thank you for that post.

It would also be helpful to know how many days we are taking between the test being run and the results known and published. There is surely a lag and we've had some bottlenecks in reporting. Complicating that, is that we are starting to introduce 15-minute-result tests with tests which may take 5-7 days to get results.

I'm looking at the tests per day chart you posted for Day 22-30, when we got to over 100,000 tests per day, the flat lined testing between 100k and 120k during those days. I'm thinking that Day 32 to the end of the graph, where we start to see a flat line in % positives may reflect a lag between the test being taking and the results being reported of about 7-10 days. Plus, look at the spike of tests to 180k on Day 32 (then dip to 140K tests). We probably don't have those results yet, but the spike in cases as a result of the spike in tests will probably come in a few days.

I was just reading an article about why the number of cases doesn't really matter if the number of tests and the lag between testing and reporting isn't also publicized.

This article sets up several scenarios for testing rates as well as how a government might get embarrassed about their publicized number of cases and start to subtly reduce their quantity of tests, as less testing will produce fewer cases.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-case-counts-are-meaningless/

 

It looks like the problem with test results has been the insistence upon using the private sector which has FAILED to deliver. This is a classic example of where the government outperforms the private sector and the private sector delays could be costing people their lives.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/next-covid-19-testing-crisis/609193/

Putting profits ahead of people in a Pandemic should be a criminal offense IMO.