Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Good thing Trump hammered it home and hired the right people for the team huh. Many of us said that number was crazy with cities shutting down and social distancing the number would be lower, the left on this board went out of their way to criticize the way it was being handled, well turns out that wasn't quiet right huh?

 

I'm not getting into the politics. This disease doesn't care about the letter in parenthesis next to your name. Trump is taking it seriously, mostly, finally. That's a good thing. I didn't vote for Hillary. I didn't vote for Trump. I'm not playing your gotcha games. There are hundreds of threads where you can blame/praise Trump regarding this.

 

He obviously did the day he shut down travel from China and all the steps he took that I listed the week or so afterwards. That's not politics those are facts and I agree but the truth is many here were playing politics from day one.

Racist for shutting down travel.
Overblowing it
underblowing it
not doing enough
30mil will get it because not doing enough
trump didn't do enough early now that its slowing
new one today the death count is low because people had it because Trump was slow to act.

Trump for the most part has avoided the politics and has barely hinted at anything political but his political enemies have been attacking politically daily.

 

That came out of the Imperial College in the UK. It was quickly modified.

 

The model which predicted a range of 100K - 240K with 95% confidence assumed perfect compliance. The estimate is now down to 80K and dropping.

 

sounds like Appalachia is in for a whopper soon then.

 

No, I rarely pay attention to the CDC numbers. They are slow to report and always playing catch up. And I have no idea why their numbers would leave me silent.

Also, I have posted today about as much as I always have, if not more, so I have zero ****ing clue what you mean by strangely silent.

 

Yes. And American epidemiologists think it could be around 7x higher, that's the reasonably defined margin of error that I mentioned.

Even if you multiply the number of cases by 7-10, the infection rate goes multiplicatively higher (within a reasonably defined margin of error) and the mortality rate goes multiplicatively lower (within a reasonably defined margin of error).

 

Then read the question to which you responded because I was not asking whether you agree that it is a possible to use that method, I was asking you whether you agree that it is the correct method for determining infection/mortality rate.

 

Yes. They are.

 

8000 (the typical amounts of deaths for America each day) + 3000 (the estimated peak deaths per day from this virus) = 11,000

 

Let me know when it occurs to you that you are bashing the extreme end of a model that was made under the assumption that America does nothing substantial to stop the virus, one that was made when America was doing nothing substantial to stop the virus, and then using the fact that only an estimate of 80,000 dead Americans is something for which we should be praising God.

The fact that people were warning you, Trump, every politician, and every American in this country about the "20-30 million infected" and "2 million dead" is the PRECISE ****ING REASON WHY WE ARE LIKELY TO END UP MUCH LOWER.

What she said.

 

That’s a big difference which may vary by region and country. This further makes the point that the denominator is not known.

 

I agree that it is a big difference and I would like it to be smaller. So would every epidiological expert and politician.

But we have lots and lots of data from which we have narrowed down the range of the denominator to within a reasonably defined margin of error.

 

And I clearly related how I interpreted and answered the question. A mortality rate can be calculated whichever way is desired to increase understanding. If it is desired to know what percentage of the hospitalized use that as the denominator. If you are interested in cases use that in the denominator. If you are interested in the total population use that.

 

And the result of that calculation has a huge +/- on it. That’s why mortality based on infections is meaningless early in a epidemic.

 

Yes. And it assumed zero compliance (on the very high end) with the very, very rigorous and draconian steps currently being taken.

 

Totally disagree on it being meaningless. We need that data to properly prepare for the future. That data, even with the huge +/- is the very reason that the country is practically shut down for the next month.

 

Except people are not following those draconian steps as Governor Cuomo was complaining about today. Grocery stores, Walmart, Costco, are a mess with regard to these measures.

 

And therein lies a reason why we are still expecting ~80,000 dead despite the government's model showing a low end edge of ~50k dead

 

We have plenty of data. Denmark, Austria, the Czech Republic, and Norway are all planning to start opening up there economic activity in mid April. We need to do the same starting in early May. New York peaked last week in terms of patients hospitalized. NJ, CA, LA are flattening in terms of hospital admittance as well.

 

And that estimate drops every day. Just last week it was between 100K and 240K. The model Dr. Birx showed had a lower range of 100K.

 

And hopefully the previous data that we have on the mortality rate estimate yielded enough scared shitless Americans that we will be able to start opening the economy back up in early May.

 

To be clear, the model Dr. Brix showed was the Imperial College in the UK study, the one you said was done quickly.

The current model that they are using over at https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america showed a range of approximately 38k-155k initially.

 

I said it was changed quickly. And the one that Dr. Birx showed and has been quoting is the 100K - 240K.