Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Statistikhengst, Mar 14, 2020.

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  1. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Nobody in the real world pays attention to the mortality figures. The Rasmussen Poll I posted upthread indicated only 4% were concerned about health issues. The remainder were concerned about the economy one way or another. Americans are starting to figure out that the experts created policies based on models which grossly over estimated the effects of the Corona virus.
     
  2. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    They are doing that on the day that 1900 Americans died?
     
  3. HereWeGoAgain

    HereWeGoAgain Banned

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    https://morningconsult.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-health-vs-economy-trump-poll/

    So let's be clear. What you stated is blatantly false and taken out of context. Was that on purpose or don't you read your own links?

    https://morningconsult.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-health-vs-economy-trump-poll/
     
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2020
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  4. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Good morning, PFers,

    As my day ended yesterday in Germany, these were the numbers.

    This morning, shortly before 09:00 GMT +2 (03:00 am on the East Coast of the USA), here the current numbers:

    2020-04-008 COVID-19 BOD 001.png
    2020-04-008 COVID-19 BOD 002.png

    Overnight, the USA climbed over the 400,000 mark in cases. Right now, the number of COVID-19 cases in the USA is 19.23% of the total tests.
    The ratio is different in Germany and also radically different in Russia (where we assume that Russia is lying)

    2020-04-008 COVID-19 BOD 003.png

    So, overnight, we grew +9,048 cases across the world. This is less than the day on which we grew 101,000 cases but more than most days before. Wait and see what today brings.

    -Stat
     
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  5. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Your posting makes no sense. I post the numbers at least 3 times a day, they are neither positive nor are they "gloom and doom". Are you not understanding that numbers are numbers and facts are facts?

    Really, it's actually that simple.
     
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  6. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Actually, it was predicted as a range between 1,200 and about 2,800, so a little more than 1,800, which of course is 1,800 too many, is pretty much right in the middle of the estimate. When you consider that every model, no matter how well informed, is still unable to perfectly predict the future. This prediction, however, came darned close, which is saddening.

    I was so hoping that we would be way off and that the deaths would already be falling off a number of days ago.
     
  7. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    By Saturday there will be more than 100,000 deaths worldwide and that number is under reported, unfortunately.
     
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  8. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    In the future please post factual content relative to this thread.
    It's what adults do.

    I've posted far more than my necessary share.

    Now it's your turn to actually bring some facts to the table.
    Are you up to it?
     
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  9. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    it could, however, be both.

    I remain open to both options and am more than willing to listen.

    Undoubtedly, poverty plays a negative role in the spread of any disease: cramped living conditions, less access to higher quality care. See: India, where poor people are sleeping in the trees in order to try to socially distance themselves.
     
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  10. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Who gives a crap what the trolls are saying?

    You know that you are right.

    Everyone that MATTERS knows that you are right.
     
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  11. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    YOU. ARE. NOW. MY. BRO.

    That's that way to do it.
     
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  12. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Lockdowns have established that the predictions are correct about reducing both the infections and deaths.

    We have no idea how effective half assed Stay at Home measures are going to be except to say that they will be more effective than doing nothing and less effective than full lockdowns.

    That is essentially where we are at right now.
     
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  13. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    I hate to break this to you, but apparently some people out there don't give a flying **** that people are dying. To those sorry souls, these numbers are at best only numbers, at worst, meaningless.

    Fortunately, there are people like you and me (and many, many other people of good-will from all parts of the socio-political spectrum) who do care.
     
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  14. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    I would rejoice were the numbers to stop in their tracks right now.

    And actually, since most anyone who knows anything about epidemiology is saying, the number of truly infected is at least 10 times higher than the official number. So, we are surely at at least 4 million Americans right now.

    But let's take that a step further, shall we.

    Here are the current cases in the USA:

    2020-04-008 COVID-19 BOD 002.png

    Of 2,082,431 tests officially listed as administered, 400,540 are COVID-19 positive. That's 21.39% of all offficially reported tests. There are certainly far more tests that have been administered, but the incompetence or lying of some of the private companies (also the slow reporting on their part) is making things worse. So, let's assume it's only 15% instead of 21.39%.

    Since 2,082,431 tests is hardly representative of the entire population of the USA, let's see what 15% of our total population looks like, shall we?

    15% of 331,000,000 = 49,650,000. Yes, that's 49.7 MILLION people.


    Bbbb.bbbb...bbb....but that can't be true, you say!!!

    bbb....bbb.....bbbbut it sure has hell can be true, since even in little cow counties in South Dakota, people are DYING from COVID-19. See how that works.

    Were all 311 million Americans to be tested with the 15 minute test right now, all at once, and get the results all at one, you would probably fall off your seat. Hope you have a strong heart.

    And finally, in case you have not noticed it yet, the pandemic is not yet over. So, criticizing a projection that you don't like when the event is still in progress is --- is pretty foolish, nöööö.
     
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2020
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  15. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    What happens when all of the "essential workers" are sick and can no longer perform the "essential" services of our society?

    For example coal accounts for 39% of all energy here in the USA and coal miners and their communities are some of the most poverty stricken in the nation. Black lung disease is evident in 20% of all coal miners which makes them even more susceptible to Covid19. The Appalachian region is where most of the rural hospitals have been closed because of cost cutting measures. Coal mining is not a job that can be done from home.

    What happens when coal production ceases because all of the miners are sick? How much coal is still in the supply chain? How many days of power do we have before there are rolling blackouts?

    What happens when we can no longer remain indoors in the blazing heat because there is no longer any air conditioning? What happens when the food in our freezers starts to go bad because there is no power?

    While the above sounds apocalyptic it is worth noting that we do not have any national planning or contingencies for something of this nature.

    The death toll includes hardworking Americans that our own lives depend upon on a daily basis. We are as vulnerable as our less fortunate citizens who live in poverty and perform OUR essential services that WE depend upon.

    Their plight is OUR plight too.
     
  16. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Such graphics can be very helpful, but sometimes really seeing the raw numbers climb up the hill is even more powerful:

    2020-04-008 COVID-19 BOD 004 yepp.png

    Let's not forget, with the 24 time zones in the world, the numbers will slightly vary from zone to zone, per day. But these number of mine are as close to midnight of each day going into the next day as possible, GMT +2 (Germany). One month ago from yesterday, on March 7th, 2020, there were 102 deaths and that day was the second day to have daily deaths that went into 3 digits. Yesterday, 7,415 daily deaths were recorded. That's a one month ratio of 72.7 : 1, or an almost SEVENTY-THREE FOLD increase in daily deaths, in just 30 days.

    I'm not sure that all that many people are realizing how powerful these numbers are, nor do they really understand the principle of exponentiality.

    It's kind of like the frog in the pot experiment...
     
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2020
  17. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    BINGO
     
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  18. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Unfortunately, your quick analysis may be very true. And stastictially, Appalachia (which is really, really beautiful country, I one had a hot girlfriend in West Virginia) has often been disproportionately hit in times of crisis. Not all of Appalachia, but large swaths of it, to be sure.
     
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  19. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    And I wouldn't be patting anyone on the back right now. With Easter Sunday coming up, if people give in to their spring fever and decide to congregate like crazy, this could, quite literally, in just one day, undo all of the social distancing from the last 3 weeks and then the hospitals will be overflowing, and in cities we don't even have on the DEFCOM map quite yet.
     
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  20. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Please remember that the COVID-19 testing numbers that we are seeing in the USA today are actually 4-5 days old.

    That's not too uncommon. In Germany, the numbers lag is about 6 days, their equivalent of the CDC (called the Robert Koch Institute) said that right away. Only, the difference is not because private companies are being inefficient (private companies are not doing testing in Germany) but rather, because German agencies double, triple and quadruple check every case in order to be sure that it is exactly what it is.

    So, the +27,000 new cases recorded in the USA yesterday, April 7th, 2020 are likely mostly from April 2-3, 2020. But deaths are generally reported that very day, perhaps the next day (depending on how late in the evening or if the cause of death is still uncertain).

    This is why we can see a day with a reduction in case numbers (it has not really happened in the USA, but elsewhere now and again), but the death numbers have steadily risen.

    Today is Wednesday before Easter. Tonight is Seder I for Passover (which I will be celebrating alone here at my place). I am very, very concerned that too many churches will be packed for Easter services and then we can safely assume that a number of people who are asymptomatic will be there and will unwittingly spread the virus. And yes, some idiots in some Jewish communities are also wanting to celebrate Seder I or Seder II together. So, calculate 3 weeks from this coming Sunday and watch to see how the hospitals are filling up, assuming 5-7 days before symptoms show and up to 2 weeks before it gets so bad that you have to go to the hospital.

    Trust me, if you DON'T attend an Easter or Passover event this week, G-d is not going to love you less. Actually, in Judaism, in light of COVID-19, meeting this week is, according to the principle of PIKUACH NEFESH, (guarding/protecting the soul) forbidden. PIKUACH NEFESH says that any and all of G-d's commandments can be temporarily ignored if it means saving a life, including having to take a life in self-defense in order to save innocent lives.

    So, I'm staying home and G-d is happy with me, in this case, for doing it.
     
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  21. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    As they say timing is everything and this Easter is going to throw a curve ball into the middle of the attempt to flatten the curve.

    As any student of history can tell you there was a Christian Sect called the Flagellants. It began in the 11th century and at the time of the Black Death Plague in Europe they were traveling around in groups essentially spreading the plague everywhere they went.

    You know this far better than I do but when you are singing you are expelling air at different rates so imagine what happens when an entire congregation is singing all at once. For every song there will be a miasma of shared air that will then be breathed in by others and no amount of 6' distancing is going to be effective at stopping that from occurring.

    We need to expand the Darwin Awards to include a Lemming Award because that is what this will be like IMO.
     
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  22. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    All the large cities have more cases. Lower population and lower density within a city helps. Georgia (Atlanta) is in some trouble. Enforcement of keeping as many people at home as much as possible is key to tamping down additional "explosions".

    upload_2020-4-8_4-11-49.png
     
  23. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    That is, of course, very true. The greater the population density, the faster the transmission of the virus and resulting toll from it. However, even a much slower transmission rate in less densely populated areas will not mean they won't ultimately (absent a vaccine or effective treatment) be hit by the virus in somewhat similar proportions (but over a much longer period of time) as elsewhere. In fact, that is the main reason while the 'plateau period' can be very long, unless weather truly comes to the rescue. Even as the number of concentrated deaths in certain areas begin to gradually come down (as it has happened in some of the most affected cities in Iran), you get a steady steam of lower numbers from across other less densely populated areas to keep the numbers at a somewhat steady pace.

    The US, I should add, has plenty of large metropolitan areas which are somewhat similarly situated as New York. While social distancing measures will spare them for now from the worst numbers they could have been experiencing without those measures, overtime they will see their number rise as well. Basically, New York will likely be what Italy was to Europe a couple of weeks ago, finding itself eventually eclipsed in many measures by the likes of Spain, Netherlands, Belgium or even the UK, which in the US will mean finding other metropolitan areas starting to show a rise in numbers. There will, of course, be some which will do better in terms of social distancing and proactive measures and may be more like Germany (e.g., California), but overall -- until there is a vaccine -- there will be quite a few deaths which will trickle (or more) for a long time (again, unless there is a vaccine, cure or unless weather can indeed stunt the spread of the virus).
     
  24. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Those models for up to 2 million U.S. deaths were realistic based on life going on as normal if no measures had been put in place.

    So, if you think that the models were grossly incorrect, then do you think that all the Trump administration's decisions to counter the virus, aside from shutting down travel from China, have been a big mistake? That would be saying that Trump is responsible for needlessly destroying the nation's economy because of "the flu", would it not?

    Your arguments are the biggest criticism of the current administration's decisions than anyone else's on this thread.
     
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2020
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  25. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yes, the range of uncertainty is broad due to so many variables being qualitative, based on human behavior. The "target" (solid line) numbers have generally been closer to the floor, not the ceiling, since the model was introduced.
     
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2020

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