Q2 2020 GDP growth: -32.9%.... Yes, you've read it right.

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by Arkanis, Jul 30, 2020.

  1. Arkanis

    Arkanis Well-Known Member

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    You're better off not looking.

    Ignorance is a security in these times.
     
  2. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    Fake News. You are using annualized numbers for the US and quarterly numbers for the other countries.

    US is -9.5%

    [​IMG]
    No one, these days, is dumb enough to be fooled by Fake News CNN
     
  3. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    Cnn lied!? Color me shocked!
     
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  4. Professor Peabody

    Professor Peabody Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    When did he go golfing?
     
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  5. Professor Peabody

    Professor Peabody Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    That's likely why Trump is defunding them.
     
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  6. yardmeat

    yardmeat Well-Known Member

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    BS. The higher number is the ANNUALIZED. The lower is NOT ANNUALIZED. CNN didn't fake anything. Why make this up?
     
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  7. yardmeat

    yardmeat Well-Known Member

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    The fringe right is making up CNN "lies" where they don't exist? Color me shocked!
     
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  8. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    ZORO’s graph shows Q1, and the shaded portion is a trajectory of Q2, thus, most likely, said -9.5% is a figment of his imagination.

    In addition, Q1 is an annualized rate, so as Q2, Q3, and Q4

    Example;

    BEA.gov; GDP Second Quarter, 2020, advance estimate

    Real Gross Domestic Product decreased at an ANNUAL RATE of 32.9%

    Said 32.9%, based on a quarter to quarter annualized formula, adjusted to inflation.
     
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2020
  9. jay runner

    jay runner Banned

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    What we been through and only losing a little over 8% on the quarter looks surprisingly good to me.
     
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  10. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    You’re not using the right language.....

    Year over Year Real GDP

    or,

    Quarter over Quarter Real GDP

    Both economic indicators are annualized.

    Euro’s 12.1% is Q2 and Q1 annualized
    U.S. 32.9% is Q2 and Q1 annualized

    Comprendez?
     
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2020
  11. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    YOUR QUOTE; You are using annualized numbers for the U.S. and quarterly numbers for the other countries.

    An illogical statement!


    Read it 100 times, think, and get back to me.
     
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2020
  12. Labouroflove

    Labouroflove Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Link the Euro's quarterly data please. Raw data for the quarter. Not seasonally adjusted, not annualized.

    I comprehend that using the annualized data, year over year during normal economic times allows one to get a relative sense of moderate change. It's mostly steady with little fluctuations so annualizing and adjusting for seasonal changes has value.

    Now, projecting annualized data six months out during war, pandemic or alien invasion is meaningless. Firstly, it's assuming that the current rate continues. That's a very sketchy proposition.

    You are asserting with the annualized data that the retraction of economic interactions will continue at the same rate downward for two more quarters based on only data from the last quarter. It's folly only intended as click bait or political skulduggery.

    Do you think the economy will continue to contract at a ten percent rate for two more quarters.

    If so, do you have any historical data that could shed some light on this current annualized model.

    Waiting.
     
  13. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    No. He's completely right. You used the US number, multiplied by 4 and the other countries just used the actual number, without multiplying it by four. Now that you know that you were taken in by Fake News, you should retract the claim in your opening post where you directly compared actual quarterly numbers while using an annualized (multiplied by 4) number for the US.

    And make a point to note who the Fake News folks were that caused you to embarrass yourself, and be more skeptical of them in the future.
     
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2020
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  14. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    Last edited: Aug 1, 2020
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  15. Labouroflove

    Labouroflove Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You think. The annualized figure is the correct current rate if extrapolated out 6 months. The question is why waste the ten second effort to run the trend out? Hell do it for a year, do it for two years and you'd get an exciting yet meaningless value. The number has no meaning or reference.

    Now, if we had a past pandemic of overreaction to compare to, the rate over the same periods from that event might give us some understanding of how we are doing to a past known.

    This reported figure is bunk in this market and has no analytic value. Political value, it does have, for use against the unthinking.

    Now big boy, you going to hang your reputation on this value. At the end of the year what will the GDP number be? Are you comfortable in declaring that the economy will continue to contract at roughly 10% per quarter? For how long?

    Too freaking simplistic and of zero value. Try again.
     
  16. Arkanis

    Arkanis Well-Known Member

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    You definitly need some math courses.

    In fact, the mistake I made was that at the time I opened the thread, the Q2 data for Spain and France had not yet come out.

    They are out now and surprise !:

    - France: - 19%.
    - Spain: - 22%.

    All in annualized data.

    And don't forget:

    USA: -32.9%....

    MAGA
     
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2020
  17. Labouroflove

    Labouroflove Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Thanks for the update and corrections.

    The problem now is determining how GDP in each country is calculated. There's a formula, are we comparing apples to apples?

    I doubt it.
     
  18. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    Your - 9.49% is a Year over Year Real GDP

    Spain 18.5% is a Quarter over a Quarter Real GDP

    Source; Trading economics

    In addition, Quarter over Quarter Real GDP are constantly annualized.
     
  19. Labouroflove

    Labouroflove Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Thanks for going back and looking for us. Somebody has got to do it I guess, but wear your mask.
     
  20. Labouroflove

    Labouroflove Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Ok, now I am confused.
     
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  21. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    Without looking, same as ours!
     
  22. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    and ZORO is bemused.....he keeps comparing a Year over Year GDP and a Quarter over Quarter GDP

    Thus, last 8 Quarters Annuallized VERSUS last 2 Quarters Annuallized
     
  23. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    No.

    France reports a 45% annualized drop,
    Germany recently announced a 35% decline on an annualized basis.

    https://talkmarkets.com/content/sto...-economic-recovery-still-on-track?post=271479
    Yup. Trump beat both of them.
     
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  24. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    We had a record low GDP, thus, most likely, what’s forthcoming is a record Growth Rate.



    ,
     
  25. Spim

    Spim Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The 32% was annualized?
     

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