Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

He should be playing with the real numbers....

Prior to the pandemic, U.S. had 22 ICUs per 100,000 pop, 40% occupied.

Now, let’s find out if Eleuthera is a Logistical guy, or a shoe shine boy?

Questions;

1. Why we had to increase our number of ICU from 22 to 34 units per 100,000 pop?

2. Had we done nothing, how many Covid19 patients would have died in hospital’s corridors?

 

Imma gonna just leave this here:




https://www.washingtonpost.com/loca...6e06c6-d4c7-11ea-9c3b-dfc394c03988_story.html

Darwin is smiling at all of these stupid people.

 

@Sanskrit , you were taught in law school that it is an inherent admission of weakness when you intentionally refuse to even acknowledge the answer provided to you by your debate opponent and then you repeat the same question.

And it is an admission of cowardice to intentionally edit someone's post to leave off the response that you were given. Go read post #11665 again if you really want to learn how scientists test for this virus.

The roughly 4,000 of your fellow Georgians who are now dead from this virus are being dishonored by your behavior.

 

Did you call protesters in DC stupid as well or just these people that went to church?

 

You got quotes from protesters in DC saying that you shouldn't fear the virus or did that aspect of the pastor not make any difference to you?

 

Is that all you have? Sigh. Most people who trust scientists are not happy with the protesters, either.

 

So you didn't call them dumb, did they have to make a statement, why was it not enough that they threw every CDC guideline out the window? As usual just pure partisanship BS from you two. Just so you know I think they both were dumb.

 

So you think the protestors were dumb as well, see how easy that is. You guys and your holier than though pandemic partisanship BS is getting more hilarious by the day.

 

I think they took a calculated risk in order to achieve progress against a systemic issue while also trying to mitigate the additional risks created by their behavior in regards to a novel pandemic.

 

It's strange the protesters didn't cause a spike , but the preacher caught it.
Must be a God thing.
Or maybe it's just being outside and not in contact for long.

 

Good morning, PFers,

before the analyses today, here the Excel-tables for the worldwide figures and the top four nations (USA, Brazil, India and Russia) for Monday, 2020-08-003. I will try my best from now on to put out the complete tables every Monday and Sunday so that you can see the entire week for the 5 entities as it shaped up. I just don't have time to write individual analyses for Brazil and India - sorry.

Also, South Africa and Colombia will soon be tracked by me.

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were 2 important analyses between the last worldwide analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-002, posted 2020-08-003, 12:00 GMT +2, #11671.
Excel tables for the beginning of the week, posted 2020-08-004, 08:07 GMT +2, #11711.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Monday, 2020-08-003 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

֍******** 18,435,432 ********֍
+208,540 new C19 cases over the day before.
Verifiably emerging hotspot: for the 3rd time in a row, Colombia goes over +10,000 new C19 cases.
1st time incidence: Japan records almost +2,000 new C19 cases. Japan was never before on the +1,000 list.
Former hotspot Spain is once again over +1,000 new C19 cases...
There are 145 nations with at least 1,000 COVID-19 cases, 82 of them with at least 10,000 COVID-19 cases.
There have now been 696,823 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +4,389 of them were on this day.
Brazil will pass 100,000 total deaths within this week, likely by Thursday or Friday.
Worldwide 7-day rolling averages: +257,066 new C19 cases per day and +5,820 deaths per day.
810 Indian, 572 Brazilian, 564 US-American, 367 Colombian & 274 Mexican deaths were recorded on this day.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

In a nutshell: until now, the daily case rolling average was rising, it receded somewhat on 2020-08-003 The daily death rolling average has continually (with a few exceptions) rising and continued to do so as well on 2020-08-003

The number of daily deaths (4,389) for the day currently being analysed was larger than all four of the Mondays before.

A new worldwide death extrapolation will come out on Thursday.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There were no nation-rubrik-jumps on this day.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +400 C19 cases and above):
​

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

Not only did Colombia join the rankings of nations with more than +10,000 new C19 cases in one day for the 3rd day in a row, it had more cases than South Africa.

Note that I highlighted Spain and Japan in red. Very disturbing in both cases.​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:​

​

Currently at 158,929 total deaths, the USA, which just went over the 150,000-death-milestone on 2020-07-027, is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 22.81% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before, it was 22.87%). A extrapolation pointing to almost 290,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

Brazil is currently at 94,702 total deaths, putting it -5,298 from the 100,000-death line and at rank 2 among the C19 dead.

An extrapolation average of +1,243 deaths per day as of 2020-06-024 would have gotten Brazil to 100,000 on July 31st, 2020. Of course, that date has now come and gone. An average of +891 deaths per day gets Brazil to 100,000 on August 15th, 2020. It's current rolling average (which, this time, is also the weekly average) is: +1,003. On 2020-06-024, Brasil ended the day with 53,874 deaths, so it has suffered +40,828 deaths since then. It is on track to reach 100,000 deaths between 2020-08-005 and 2020-08-007, in the next 4 days including today, 2020-08-004.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:​

Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 1,003 per day
Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 1,212 per day

2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. It's likely to stay that way for a while. It's also only a matter of time until India joins that miserable statistic.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

40 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece, with Mexico having gone over the 1,000,000-test-line on 2020-08-003; of those 40, 6 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India and Brazil. At 8 million total tests, Germany is next to cross over the 10-million line.

With 90.4 million COVID-19 tests, China leads the field by far. The USA has performed 60.9 million tests (1,000,000 thousand more than the day before) while Russia has performed 29.0 million tests (200,000 thousand more than the day before). India has completed 20.2 million such tests (400,000 thousand more than the day before). The UK has performed 16.7 million such tests (200,000 thousand more than the day before). Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations both in terms of COVID-19 infections and total deaths, has performed 13.2 million such tests (100,000 thousand more than the day before).

Facit: on 2020-08-003, the world started the week by going from 18.27 million total C19 cases, hopscotching over 18.3 and 18.4 million to land at 18.44 million cases.


-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT
There was an important analysis between the last USA analysis and this one:
Excel tables for the beginning of the week, posted 2020-08-004, 08:07 GMT +2, #11711.

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for EOD on Monday, 2020-08-003 (EOD = GMT +0):

****4,862,174****
The USA will go over 5,000,000 total C19 cases this week, probably by Thursday, or Friday at the very latest.
+48,527 new COVID-19 cases, second day in a row under +50,000
FLORIDA is -8,116 away from 500,000 total C19 cases.
There are now 158,929 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 564 of them were recorded on this day.
USA weekly average = 61,252 new infections & 1,212 deaths per day.
2,446,798 are recovered / 2,256,447 are still sick, 18,725 of them are in critical condition.​

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

Less text.... more meaning. The USA sailed over the 4-million mark on 2020-07-021, and 13 days later, we pushing toward 4.9 million already.

The USA will go over 5,000,000 total C19 cases this week, likely by Thursday, at the very latest, Friday. At less than +50,000 new C19 cases, this is, for USA standards, a light start into the week. I can only hope that this trend continues. Of course, with massive wildfires in California and a Hurricane ripping up through Florida, the mid-atlantic states, all the way up to Maine and into Canada, C19 reporting for this week may be pretty heavily influenced by bad weather conditions.

The actual number of daily deaths, +564, is less than the Monday before but more than the 3 Mondays before that. The rolling daily death average only decreased by 5 deaths per day, statistically (but not mentally, emotionally or spiritually) insignificant.

In a nutshell: average daily cases are currently decreasing but at the same time, average daily deaths are generally increasing, meaning that the lagging factor (deaths) is now *verifiably* in full swing. I do not expect this average to drop for a good while, because the far less deaths (well under +1,000) that occur on Saturdays and Sundays are ALREADY in the average.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There was 1 unit/rubrik change, in total cases: CT

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

Almost all of the text below this point will have disappeared - *poof* *gone*!

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

The top states are also in the worksheet, so you can see their daily development.

Washington State was on the 1,000-list on this day, but only was just under 1,000. This is the first time in quite a while that Ohio was not on the 1,000-list.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:​

​

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FACIT: we ended the day and the month analysed with 158,929 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 151,700-171,300:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of more than all of TEMPE JUNCTION, never to get it back again. Think about that.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the milestones:

-200,000 deaths on or around 2020-09-20 (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).

-Almost 237,500 deaths on Election Day, 2020-11-003. Without wanting to interject politics in this, no doubt the rising death-toll is going to be one of the top themes of the election, there is no getting around this.

-250,000 deaths on or around 2020-11-018 (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).

-286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current:



This means that currently, we are 368 deaths under the extrapolation. The value will likely become a positive value by Wednesday and likely stay there for a long, long time.

IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

-Stat

 

Looking at the above one might believe that the 2nd wave/surge has past it's peak and that things are going to improve in the months to come prior to the election.

Before we make that assumption let us take note of how and why we incurred that 2nd wave/surge. The primary cause was the reopening of the economy and people attending crowded places like bars. Very little was done in the way of mitigation so it hit much harder than was necessary and we are paying a steep price as a result.

But the worst is over now, right?

Not so fast!

Schools are reopening next month and some are opening early to make up for lost time. Children are not good at Social Distancing and they share things with each other all the time. Just as we experienced with reopening the economy we are going to be see a 3rd wave/surge beginning about a month after the majority of schools reopen. I don't have a crystal ball so I cannot tell you how big it is going to be but that it is going to happen is predictable because the virus exploits every opportunity that it can and there is no reason to believe that it won't find schools to be ideal.

But after we get past that 3rd wave/surge everything should be just hunky-dory, right?

Not really because we still have Thanksgiving and Black Friday and the holidays.

But then it will finally be over and we can all go skiing again after the holidays, right?

Wait, wasn't that one of the original vectors for spreading the virus worldwide?

Without a vaccine we are going to be on this roller coaster for a long time.

Just thought everyone might appreciate a little peek into what our future is probably going to look like since we have proven that we are incapable of the self discipline necessary to control the spread of the virus.

Take care and stay safe.

 

The bigger problem for the United States is the fact that this virus needs to get dramatically better before the fall because the fall is when flu season will start back up. Dr. Fauci noted that we need to get daily case counts below 10,000 by that point.

Also, you noted the rolling 7 day average for cases. I would like to piggy back on that and point out something that I have seen in the data. Here is what happened following the peak of daily case counts back in April.



11 days later was the peak for the 7 day rolling average on deaths. And here is the most recent crest.



The most recent high for the rolling 7 day average on cases took place on July 22nd. And 10 (arguably 11 since the difference in those two days is so tiny) days later, the 7 day rolling average for deaths hit it's peak.

 

A limbo type 7 day rolling average due to backlogs/delays, incomplete reports, and system upgrades.

In addition, Dr. Birx’s warning of a extraordinarily widespread, thus, excluding the hotspot states, is the positivity rate alarmingly increasing?

An important note; Taiwanese students wore masks, and according to several pictures, desks were shielded with plexiglass.

 

That is an interesting observation that the peaks had such similar timing.

Dr Fauci is correct that compounding the Flu season on top of the virus is going to make things worse in the Fall however for those who are wearing masks and social distancing already they stand a better chance of not getting it.

 

Got to wonder if the hospitals have followed the directive of not reporting to the CDC any longer. That too could be a contributing factor for the numbers not being reported accurately.

Schools are already stretched to the limit so I doubt that we will see plexiglass shields around desks in many districts.

 

But, the CDC’s initial school re-opening guidelines were somewhat diminished by Trump’s opposition, thus, time will tell if their “bottom-up prevention strategies” are effectively working. In other words, what will be the extent to which kids can spread Covid19 among themselves, and then, to their family members/elders?

In other words, in reference to re-opening schools, we’re presently writing Covid19’s prevention and safety manuals.

 

I gather that there are a great many concerned teachers, parents, administrators, nurses, coaches, etc, etc who are taking this seriously but discipline is something that is sorely lacking in schools. The attitude towards authority is a major hurdle and so I suspect that even the best efforts are going to be thwarted by the covidiots who will just refuse to follow the prevention and safety manuals.

I am not being a pessimist because I am a REALIST.

How do you effectively ensure that each desk to 6' from every other desk when there are 30 kids in the classroom? How do a 1000+ kids move from one room to another for their next class while social distancing? How do you sanitize every surface in a lunch room after each person leaves and another takes their place?

Herding cats comes to mind.

 

I'm a partisan? You have to be really, really far to the right to consider me a partisan. LOL.

 

Anyone to the left of Genghis Khan is a partisan liberal according to those on the extremist rightwing fringe.

 

It's okay. I'm used to it. The far left considers me Sean Hannity. LOL.

 

Folks, here’s an important info I wasn’t aware of;

First, on a daily basis, I google Texas Tribune and Tampa Bay Times for the following reasons;

Texas Tribune; Until July 23rd, Texas Tribune were accurately publishing their state’s hospital bed capacity report, and other relevant info, thus, definitely not a right-wing publisher.

Tampa Bay Times; From 2007 to 2018, they were the owner of PolitiFact, thus, “they have a 10 year plus history of publishing facts”.

Now, said important info;

Texas Tribune, Aug 3rd......

As of Aug 3rd, 8,819 were hospitalized in Texas, down 962 from a week ago.

————

According to Worldometer, on July 23rd (one week ago), Texas’ cumulative Covid19 deaths amounted to 5,883, and on Aug 3rd, 7,455, thus, over one week, an increase of 1,572 deaths.

Wait a minute.......from July 23rd to Aug 3rd, Hospitalizations down 962, same time period, 1,562 deaths?????

Question; How many are dying of Covid19 outside hospitals?

Answer; A very large amount, and world-wide.

Here’s an example, after 5 seconds of Googling;

Headline; Large jump in Michigan deaths outside hospitals as Covid19 raged

Deaths recorded by emergency personnel outside Michigan hospitals jumped 62% between Mar 15th to May 23rd.

Bingo!

 

I suspect that this is happening in many states where there simply is NOT enough in the way of medical resources in remote rural areas. Those deaths are unreported because no one knows that they have died and won't know it until someone decides to find out what happened to the old couple at the end of the valley.