The Unique US Failure to Control the Virus

Sorry but I don't believe in any of what you're saying. I think the idea that we are over-counting deaths is completely false. Just look at the huge bump in deaths by all causes during the pandemic period as compared to similar periods in the past years; it's an increase by 80% to 300% depending on the epicenter (go to the CDC website to find these tables). There's been a partisan talking point based on some fringe, anecdotal cases of over-counting, when the vast majority of cases are indeed deaths FROM COVID-19 and not merely deaths WITH COVID-19. The idea that cases that are not tested due to testing shortages by are pretty darn typical, is a miscount, is absurd. In ALL of medicine, death certificates take into account the physician's understanding of the chain of events, for actually the majority of cases, given that only a minority of cases go to autopsies or have clear-cut laboratory confirmation of cause of death. See, if you are an attending physician in a small rural hospital, you ran out of PCR tests, and you are called to see a gentleman who arrived to the ER, and you interview the family and they say "cousin Jeb had a confirmed case of COVID-19, he coughed a lot and grandpa was in the same room, without a mask, then grandpa started feeling achy all over his body with a runny nose and he lost the sense of smell, four days later he started having shortness of breath and now he is kind of bluish." So the attending admits the patient, his pulse ox is 88, in a few days his shortness of breath worsens, he is intubated, develops hyper-coagulation with elevated D-Dimer, then develops renal insufficiency, disseminated intravascular coagulation, and dies, pray tell, what should the physician write in his death certificate??? What other mysterious disease in the middle of a freaking pandemic, is mimicking so perfectly COVID-19, but isn't it??? Oh, he happens to also have long-term, low grade prostate cancer and his immune system is not great after some therapies for it... but he would have survived five more years if not for COVID-19. Again, what in the hell do you suppose the physician should write down on his death certificate as cause of death? Prostate cancer? Only in the dreams of certain right-wing activists, because 100% of the time and with good reason, a physician will write down as cause of death, presumed COVID-19 (although it's unconfirmed by testing). The fact that they ran out of PCR tests is NOT a reason NOT to count this death.

Oh, and we're not testing more than anybody else. Yes in absolute numbers, but not in proportional numbers. UAE for example has tested 5.4 million people in a population of 9.9 million people, so more than half of their population, and many other countries have higher per capita numbers too.

 

My money is on science. Yours on opinion.

 

You don't have to take my word for it.

"Dr. Deborah Birx, the response coordinator for the White House coronavirus task force, said the federal government is continuing to count the suspected COVID-19 deaths, despite other nations doing the opposite.

"There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition, and let's say the virus caused you to go to the ICU [intensive care unit] and then have a heart or kidney problem," she said during a Tuesday news briefing at the White House. "Some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death.

"The intent is ... if someone dies with COVID-19 we are counting that," she added."

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bi...avirus-as-covid-19-deaths-regardless-of-cause

Wouldn't you agree that before we start comparing our deaths to the deaths of other countries, we should first establish what precisely it is that they're actually counting?

 

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From your link:

"Then you will include in those numbers some people who did have a pre-existing condition that would have caused death anyway, but that's probably a small number," Baden said.

 

I believe I was infected and if true I am happy that I was. If I did not believe this I would seek out places where I would be.

Hiding from inevitability is the guaranteed way to die.

The virus will always be here waiting from you to come out of your hole.

Sorry to harsh your buzz!!

By the way science does not speak with one voice. Ask the Italian scientists vs the Netherlands scientists vs the Japanese scientists. And so many others. Look at the differing results. That is truly the bottom line!!

 

Thats all great, but that still doesn't mean we're counting the same thing as the people we're comparing our progress to. Not only is 'that's prolly a small number' not a very confidence-inspiring statement, but clearly other countires are trying to downplay their numbers. How many Covid-deaths are THEY not reporting by claiming they died from something else?

The bottom line is that there is no reason to be comparing our progress to that of other nations until we first determine what metrics they're using and how accurately.

 

OK, if other countries are not practicing the same clinical reasoning, then yes, you are right and I stand corrected.
But another point persists: the correct way to count is the way WE are doing.
I wasn't aware that other countries were doing it differently.
I use an analogy:
There's a tornado. Three guys run to an underground shelter, trying to make it before the tornado gets them. One is obese and runs slowly, the other two are slim and fast, and while the other two get to safety, the fat guy lags behind, the tornado gets him, throws him around, and he hits his head on the pavement and dies of a traumatic brain injury.

OK, would you put in his death certificate that the cause of death was obesity? No, he died of a TBI in the context of a natural disaster. His obesity wouldn't have killed him today. His obesity likely would have curtailed his life expectancy by a few years, but he'd live another few decades being obese, if the tornado hadn't caused him to suffer a TBI.

Similarly, yes, old people with underlying medical conditions and weakened immune systems are more susceptible to serious cases of COVID-19 and if they catch it, they are more likely to die, suffering complications such as disseminated intravascular coagulation, renal failure, endothelial lung damage with lungs inundated by fluids and unable to exchange oxygen.

But they would have survived a few more years without COVID-19, so the immediate cause of death *is* indeed COVID-19. The other conditions are merely contributing factors, like the obesity for the tornado guy.

If other countries are not counting this way, well, they are wrong. We are counting correctly. We are NOT over-counting as right wingers love to suggest.

But then, OK, let's not compare. We don't need to compare to other countries to realize that we've done a lousy job at controlling this.

 

I don't care how the data is collected. I want it to be more openly available. I want 'deaths with covid' AND 'deaths from covid' and 'deaths with but probably not from covid' and 'deaths tested positive but not autospied'... I want all those numbers. Our political establishment has demonstrated that they can't be trusted to tell us what we want to know in an honest and clear manner.

...which makes it really difficult to convince people that they 'need' to do this or that. If you're looking for where we failed, it was decades ago when our corrupt establishment lost any semblance of credibility in the minds of The People.

 

You are making good points.

On the other hand, again, looking at Deaths By All Causes we *do* see that the numbers are compatible and actually point to under-counting. Because, see, Deaths By All Causes is a pretty reliable number, because anybody who dies in the United States gets counted except if a serial killer gets you and buries you in his backyard, making you temporarily count as a missing person rather than a dead person. Anyway, 99.999% of Deaths By All Causes are accurately counted, and when they suffer a sudden bump up in the middle of a freaking pandemic, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that people are dying of the deadly disease that is spreading everywhere in 215 countries in this freaking pandemic, no conspiracy theory necessary, no partisan talking points necessary.

I totally agree with your last phrase, though.

 

Bottom line is that COVID is extremely unlikely to kill you.
We don’t want to make lifestyle choices that will protect us better from cvd or cancer and we love our cars, our cigarettes and our alcohol!! Much bigger threats!!
So let’s focus on a much much smaller threat in COVID!
Priorities in health care are shunted aside so we can have the illusion of safety without having to give up things we like.
Oh and let’s eviscerate the world economy in this pursuit.
Let’s light up a cigarette and throw back a whiskey and hop in our cars.
Covid is our only true worry, right?

 

Yes, total deaths by all causes is an acceptable metric for comparison. However it has to be taken in consideration with other dynamics. Over the course of a year, or even six months, its probably an accurate metric across all nations. But in smaller sample areas its still problematic. For example, July (iirc) is when Hospitals across the US are flooded with new doctors fresh out of Med school, so the following months are rife with increased numbers of medical malpractice deaths across the nation, but not in most other countries. Just as one example.

When the govt starts telling people they need to close their business, wear a mask, don't go to church, and then tossing statistics around, folks start wondering if they've taken all the relevent data into consideration, or perhaps, if they just told all their friends to sell stock because they 'have a feeling' prices are about to drop...

 

Good for you that you had a mild case with no consequences. By now you are probably immune. If you want to confirm, do an antibody test.

That would have been imprudent given that this virus in unpredictable and people with mild cases, just like you, have been found for example to have suffered heart damage that might have later consequences (78% of a population according to a German study, with 67% of those having had mild cases - I've linked to this study in my posting history, here). We don't know yet the full set of mid- and long-term consequences of an infection by the SARS-CoV-2 which does seem to be a nasty bug with its propensity to cause endothelial damage as likely its main mechanism of causing trouble; given that the endothelium of blood vessels is everywhere in all organs, this nasty little bug is causing a lot of widespread damage in the system even of people who had mild or asymptomatic cases. My own brother is an example: had an asymptomatic case, followed in a week by a devastating stroke. Think for example of the Epstein-Barr virus, the agent of mononucleosis. It's a fairly benign disease in acute phase, but years or decades later, the virus which remains dormant, causes non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, a very bad kind of cancer. I'm not saying this will be the case for the SARS-CoV-2, but I am saying that viruses are unpredictable and it's best to avoid them, than to actively seek them, given unforeseen consequences.

That is only true if we don't get a safe and effective vaccine. If we do, going out of your way to expose yourself now is a very imprudent move, which will result in avoidable deaths and avoidable long-term health consequences for a percentage of those so exposed. Being prudent now and getting the vaccine in a few months would be a much better strategy.

What exactly is the divergence in science regarding the COVID-19 you are seeing? It's an evolving situation and early assumptions have been replaced by later better understanding, which is true of any new disease, but I don't see any huge discrepancy in what is currently known about this virus, beyond it being an evolving situatio; at least, not in what is widely accepted (there will always be some fringe believers in alternative, unproven theories). Science is not done by country of origin. The understanding of this virus and the issues it can cause are only getting better by the day, and science is moving at a record pace towards vaccines and towards better treatment protocols, which are starting to make a real difference.

 

True. We'll see. My gut feeling is that any discrepancy in counting will end up being minor in the big scheme of things, once this is all said and done. There is a freaking pandemic out there, and it is killing people here and abroad. That's the bottom line, and a few percentage points of over-counting or under-counting won't change it.

Regarding July and doctors coming out of Med School, sure, it is a factor (in terms of errors that can't be caught in time if they suddenly happen, like for example a resident trying to insert a subclavian catheter and perforating the pleura, instead), but not to the degree you seem to suppose, because PGY-1's, the first year residents who start their residency training fresh out of school on July 1st, are not that autonomous. They function under the supervision of PGY-2s, 3s, and PGY-4s Chief Residents, and preceptors, mentors, directors of training, and attending physicians. An attending physician who is ultimately responsible in a court of law for what goes wrong, typically will carefully review what a PGY-1 is doing, and most hospital bylaws require of the attending physician a note following every note written by the PGY-1, saying "Case discussed with PGY-1 in supervision; agree with the above."

 

Its just one example. The point is that its very easy to skew the numbers by omitting pertinent dynamics that most people aren't aware of.

I think this particular discrepency in counting is going to be rather signifigant. iiuc, Cvirus is most threatenning to those with serious pre-existing conditions. Which means most of the people it kills in other nations are not going to be counted as Cvirus victims. Which means many of those nations could have as high or higher mortality rates than us while we're being told we have to do more to 'catch up.' This would, of course, only happen due to either extreme incompetence or nefarious agenda. And I personally expect both from TPTB.

Also, protecting life is important. But protecting the economy is tantamount to protecting life. I for one am more certain socioeconomic collapse is a threat the average person than Cvirus is, so I see preventing it as more important than preventing infection. I think we are scaling farther toward virus prevention than the threat warrants while increasing the far greater threat a collapsing economy poses.

 

Cancer and DUI are contagious?

 

I'm not a partisan Mr. Windbag.

I'm one of those capable of stepping back and looking at the big picture. I try to apply rational analysis to what's going on around me in the world, been doing that since I was young. What's it all about Alfie? I am an independent thinker, and I am aware of the fact that the mainstream media is notorious for its deceptive practices over decades. Yes, I remember Judith Miller.

The infection fatality rate is very low, less than 1.

Am I entitled to ask questions as to why they crashed the economy and so much more in the name of a virus?

Or should I put my questions aside?

All your numbers have been doctored since the beginning and still are being doctored, pardon the pun.

 

No but the death rate from c-19 is much much smaller than from these other much greater threats.
Government should allocate public health resources to the greatest threats. This is just common sense!

 

Not any more than suicides are contagious. But that doesn't stop a lot of people from trying use them as a basis for policy.

 

Sweden: Smart.

 

Suicide takes many forms including cigarettes and alcohol and reckless driving.

 

GIGO = Fake Science

There is a lot of money in Fake Science these days.

"In addition, the Administration is now reviewing testing plans from each state, territory, and major city public health unit, as a requirement of $10.25 billion in cooperative agreement funding distributed by the CDC. The State Testing Plans serve as a roadmap for each state’s testing strategy for SARS-CoV-2."
PBS, Read Fauci, Redfield and Giroir’s full witness testimony as submitted to the House, Jul 31, 2020., By Laura Santhanam By Travis Daub.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health...-witness-testimony-as-submitted-to-the-senate

 

I don't think that is a accurate statement. Words have meanings, and suicide does not mean to smoke a cigarette.

 

Even in Sweden which never shut much of anything down the rates of cases and death are vanishingly small.

 

Hopefully not Gates' vaccine. He said his is likely to kill 700,000 people if administered wordwide. Thats how many the virus has killed...