Complete 2020 Presidential polling compendium

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Statistikhengst, Aug 15, 2020.

  1. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,776
    Likes Received:
    19,337
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Biden (D-challenger) vs. Trump (R-incumbent), 2020 Presidential polling compendium

    Hello, PFers,

    as a service to all who use this forum, once again, I am providing the link to my complete polling compendium for 2020, this time, for the presidential race.

    Every poll that I can find (double and triple checked) goes into this online table:

    2020 Presidential polling data - Biden (D) vs Trump (R-inc)

    There are 55 tabs total: one for each state and DC, 2 tabs for the national polling, one for specialty polling and one for the polling totals per state.

    Before I get to screenshots to help you navigate, this link of mine at blogger will help you find tons of other information out of the past, including polling data from 2016, 2012 and 2008:

    ELECTION 2020 Links

    So, on to the polling tables in this online form. First, tabs either have a color or no color:

    2020-08-015 PF polliing compendium 000 - tab identification.png

    If they are identified with a colored-stripe (between purpur and red), then this means that that state has been polled at least once this year. If there is no color, it means that the state has not been polled at all.

    Here is how the national tab looks:

    2020-08-015 PF polliing compendium 001 - national.png

    First, you might be asking yourselves what columns L through P mean. All this means is that I have set up the table for a possible three-way race, should one appear. It doesn't mean I expect a three-way race to happen, but in the age of COVID-19, anything can happen and it's better to be prepared than not. If it becomes apparent that this is going to remain a strictly two-way race, then shortly before the election, I will delete those columns throughout the tables.

    In the national tab, before we get to the data itself, I have published the exit polling going back to 1992, for reference.

    In this screenshot, you see all of the national polling from the end of July until yesterday, 2020-08-014. I use the european date-system, which should be, for instance, 14.08.2020, but google tables is just hellbent on inserting slashes where I have dots, so slashes it will be: 14/08/2020 = August 14th, 2020. The values are color coded according to party and bold = the higher (winning) value.

    On the national front, I also have an in-depth tab to log the internals:

    2020-08-015 PF polliing compendium 001 - national internals.png

    That's 18 or 19 internal categories that I will be tracking as of the next week. I tracked some of them in 2019 (you will see in the tab) but then got side-tracked by data over impeachment and now, over COVID-19.

    Here a typical state tab:

    2020-08-015 PF polliing compendium 002 - example Alaska.png

    I color-code the margin based on the winner of the majority of the last 7 pres elections in that state. For Alaska, that's easy, since the R has won Alaska all 7 of the last 7 cycles.

    Also, in North Carolina, the margins are in red:

    2020-08-015 PF polliing compendium 003 - example North Carolina.png

    If you are asking yourself what in the world the numbers 20, 21, 22 etc are doing above 49, that is meaningless, I am just holding some free rows open for the next polling, it saves me time on pasting in extra rows. And of course, those numbers will be changed when the time comes. No biggie. And since a Republican has won North Carolina 6 of the last 7 cycles, the margins are in red, calculated for the Republican. Therefore, a negative (-) value in red would mean that Biden (D) lead in that particular poll.

    However, in the case of Pennsylvania, it looks like this:

    2020-08-015 PF polliing compendium 004 - example Pennsylvania.png

    The Democrat won Pennsylvania 6 of the last 7 cycles and so the margin is listed in blue, for the D-nominee.

    All polling entries in column B are hyperlinked. I cannot vouch that those links will hold forever, they tend to go defunct after a number of years, but for now, they should work.

    With this OP, I am making no commentary on the state of the race. I am simply getting all of the polling data out there.

    If you think that I missed a poll (am currently catching up on the national polling from January to July, it will be filled in soon) in a certain state, just PM me with a link and if it's from an accredited pollster, I'll include it. I include public polls, campaign-internal polls and also partisan polls from both sides, as long as the pollster is accredited.

    I think that pretty much everything that we have come to expect in a polling cycle (for instance, expected convention bounces, 'break-point' at 3 weeks before the election, etc) has been thrown out the window with COVID-19. So, I think the best thing to do is to follow the numbers and see how things are shaping up.

    I will also be adding past election results back to 1992 to the state tabs (in lieu of exit polling), bit-by-bit, as time allows.

    In row 2/3 for the statewide polling and in row 11/12 the national polling, you will see the possiblity for calculated averages, right now listed as "#VALUE!". I will start calculating averages in September, 2020. In states with lots of polling, this is easy. In states with very sparse polling, it's more difficult.

    So, I hope this information helps.

    And in conclusion, I don't care about your political affliation or your personal preference for President, that's your business and your right. If you are an American citizen of voting age, make sure to vote this year.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2020
  2. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,776
    Likes Received:
    19,337
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    So, it's time to start filling in some important data points.

    Yesterday, 2020-09-002 (Wednesday) was the first day in this presidential cycle where a huge number of presidential polls came in on all the same day. All said and told, 13 polls were published on this day, and it looks like this:

    2020-09-003 Presidential polling average from 2020-09-002.png

    You see between entry 103 and 104 a kind of light purple line. Everything above that line is polling that was published post-both-conventions.

    12 of those 13 pollsters are well-known within the USA, 1 is not: Opinium. Opinium is a British outfit and as far as I can remember, this is the very first time that that firm has polled the prez race in the USA. That doesn't mean that Opinium is bad. In 2012, one of the firms that did the best polling of the year was a Canadian firm.

    In this listing you see a very varied approach to polling, from robopolling to intensive, personal telephone interviews.

    The Dornsife rolling tracking polling (which is based on the RAND project from 2012) was somewhat controversial in 2016, because all those times where Hillary Clinton was way up in polling, Dornsife showed Trump ahead and became a sort of cause celebre among Trump supporters.

    Fast forward 4 years and now, Dornsife is in line with the rest of the polling universe. I have started tracking Dornsife as of this day.

    A key point to consider: of the 13 polls, 7 have Biden (D) over the 50-mark and 4 more have him at 49, which, in this polarized day and age, is practically like the 50-mark. But mathematically, it is not.

    Before I go on, so that no one gets all affronted up or wants to go postal, I have a very healthy view of polls and polling: no poll is every completely right, those extreme outliers can be wrong. One individual poll can be meaningless, but a large number of polls all showing the same direction, especially the average out of healthy polling "DNA", can indeed be informative and usually, the average is pretty close to reality.

    So, the averages have Biden at essentially +8 over President Trump, which is pretty much where this race has been since April 2020.

    Now, back to the 50-mark thing: here the national polling from both 2012 and 2016, same time-frame. You will see that in both cases, at this juncture in time, no one even hit the 50-mark in any of the polling.

    2020-09-003 Presidential polling average - compare to 2016.png

    2020-09-003 Presidential polling average - compare to 2012.png

    Ignore the averages indicated in the 2016 and 2012 polling screenshots: those averages were for the end-polling in those respective years.

    So, that's the mathematical state of the race in national polling as of 2020-09-002.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Sep 3, 2020
    Cosmo, clennan and Derideo_Te like this.
  3. Cougarbear

    Cougarbear Banned

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2019
    Messages:
    2,450
    Likes Received:
    1,146
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Good grief! No wonder I don't trust the polls. Rasmussen is usually accurate. Fox not so much. There are others as well. Most are skewed towards Democrats and are inaccurate. There are so many Trump supporters that won't say they are for polls or anyone else. And, with this mail out and in balloting, it's going to be a third world country election set up for the Democrats to win so they can implement their Marxist authoritarian rule over everyone.
     
    yabberefugee likes this.
  4. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,776
    Likes Received:
    19,337
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male

    You are allowed to have any opinion you want, but what you wrote is statistically very, very incorrect, and I can prove it.

    Rasmussen has a verifiable, mathematically proveable +4 point to the right bias in polling, across the board. It has had this mathematical bias for more than 11 years.

    The FOX polls have actually been more accurate over the long haul, although they too sometimes try some very questionable push-polling techniques.

    And PPP (D) a Democratic outfit, interestingly enough, also has a house effect of +0.9 to the right in polling, not to the left. I can prove that as well.

    As for the rest of your weird wet-dream fantasies about Democrats wanting to implement "Marxist authoritarian rule", well, you just go enjoy that one. Whatever floats your boat, l'il slugger.

    But that kind of rude, unsubstantiated crap is not what this thread is about. So, let's be adult about this.
     
    Cosmo, clennan, WalterSobchak and 5 others like this.
  5. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2017
    Messages:
    44,584
    Likes Received:
    12,436
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Do you have any evidence for your claim?
    Democrats are Marxists? OMG. :roflol:
     
    Cosmo, DavidMK and Statistikhengst like this.
  6. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,776
    Likes Received:
    19,337
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Now that Labor Day has come and gone, I expect a massive plethora of polling to start rolling in.

    Every couple of days, I will note the states where new polling has come in.

    For instance, yesterday, the very first 2020 presidential poll for the great state of Idaho was released. You can see the details at the excel table.

    Also, as of today, exactly as I did in 2016, I will be recording the Dornsife daily rolling figures. As soon as Rasmussen starts daily rolling figures, I will log them as well.
     
    Cosmo likes this.
  7. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,776
    Likes Received:
    19,337
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    So, the massive plethora of polling has begun to roll in.

    There has been a number of large polling dumps from Morning Consult (R) / Redfield and Wilton / Fox News / AARP (either in conjunction with BSG/GSSG or with Fabrizio-Ward/Hart) / CNBC-Change Research / Emerson and a number of polls from Rasmussen, also 2 polls from SUSA, in all of the battleground states, either for the prez race, the senatorials, or both. You can find them all, up-to-date, at the excel table linked to in the OP.

    On the national polling level, an average update. Since the polling dump from 2020-09-002, there have been 10 new polls, here you can see them and the averages:

    2020-09-011 presidential polling update.png

    Current composite average: Biden +8.88%. All nine polls show Biden leading, he is at or above 50% in 7 of the 10 and is at +10 or above in 4 of the 10. The narrowest margin, found in three national polls, is +6 (Harvard-Harris, Morning Consult and CNBC).

    This is the largest composite margin average that a presidential candidate has had in national polling in the week directly after Labor Day since: 1984. Biden's current composite margin mirrors Bill Clinton's 1996 winning end-margin over Bob Dole (+8.52%) very closely.

    Here an exact comparison to the polls in the four days after Labor Day 2016 (it was on Sept. 5th of that year) and also for the four days after Labor Day 2012 (it was on Sept. 3rd of that year). You will see a marked difference between 2020 and 2016, also a marked difference to 2012:

    2020-09-011 presidential polling update - flashback to 2016.png

    In the four days after Labor Day, 2016, Clinton led in most of the polling, but barely. Trump was a smidge ahead in the UPI/CVOTER poll, Clinton was up by the same smidge in the Dornsife. Her largest margin in this time-frame was: +4 (Rasmussen, 3-way poll), and in the same Rasmussen, in a two-way, it was a tie. As matter of fact, in this time-frame, there were three ties. Clinton's highest topline was: 48.6.

    2020-09-011 presidential polling update - flashback to 2012.png

    In the four days after Labor Day 2012, Romney led in 6 polls, Obama led in 5 and there was 1 tie. No one came over 50. Obama' highest topline was 48, Romney's was 49. The largest margin, either way, was +3.

    Now, scan with your eyes above and look at the Biden/Trump numbers again. The difference is very, very stark.

    So, that's the state of national polling at this point in time.

    None of the polling was conducted as the Trump/Woodward book / audiorecording revelations came to light.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2020
    Cosmo, gnoib and Derideo_Te like this.
  8. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,776
    Likes Received:
    19,337
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    I will be updating here on Sunday, after the Jewish New Year.

    -Stat
     
    Cosmo likes this.
  9. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,776
    Likes Received:
    19,337
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Sorry, was sick at the weekend, will update soon.

    There is a lot of new polling out there, all of it recorded at the excel table, and not just in the battleground states.

    Go take a look.
     
    Cosmo likes this.
  10. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,776
    Likes Received:
    19,337
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    A huge number of polls have been added to the compendium and now, for the first time, all 50 states plus DC have been polled at least three times.

    The reason for this is that SURVEY MONKEY (Google), has produced the data for 3 waves of 50 state (plus DC) polling, so all said and done, I've added about 270 polling results into the compendium in this week.

    Take a look.
     
    Cosmo likes this.
  11. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,776
    Likes Received:
    19,337
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Once again, a very significant number polls have been added to the compendium from just about all over the place. Worth taking a look.
     
    Cosmo likes this.
  12. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,776
    Likes Received:
    19,337
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    A plethora of new polls is flowing in this week, every day. Go take a look.
     
    Cosmo and Curious Always like this.
  13. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2016
    Messages:
    16,924
    Likes Received:
    13,462
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Female
    Thanks for doing this, Stat.
     
    Statistikhengst likes this.
  14. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,776
    Likes Received:
    19,337
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    As we enter into the last 2.5 weeks of this campaign, I will start pointing to more and more specific states, but suffice it to say that Joe Biden's national lead, on the average, is steady at over +10% and with that, he is scoring the highest averages for any challenger since 1936.

    His polling numbers are considerably better than even challenger Ronald Reagan in 1980.

    Moreover, in just way too many polls, nationally and on the state level, Joe Biden is comfortably over the 50 mark, time and time again.

    In a "traditional" campaign year, the days between -21 days out from the election and that weekend in front of 2 weeks before the election would mark "break point", where, if a campaign is surging, it tends to surge more.

    However, we are in no way experiencing a "traditional" campaign year. What we are experiencing is early voting, either by mail or in person, that is simply going out the roof.

    The fact that people in predominantly black counties in Georgia were willing to wait up to 14 hours to vote while people in white counties were done in all of 15 minutes tells you that a.) the minority vote is going to surge as never before, b.) the GOP's voter supression shenanigans are not working and c.) a number of people are going to end up in jail for electoral fraud in this year, and very, very likely, those people are not going to be Democrats.

    In case you are wondering why it is taking black people in certain counties in Georgia 14 hours to vote, it's because the Governor and SOS of Georgia DELIBERATELY placed way too many voting machines in those precincts, in those counties, those machines tend to "break down" far more quickly, often the Georgia BOE convienently "forgets" to send things like electrical cords to go with the machines, etc. Also, they have often placed the voting precincts in places where it is as hard as hell to park in order to vote. Meanwhile, in rich, predominantly white counties and/or precincts, this problem does not exist at all.

    Soooo, after the dust settles from this election, it's time for us Americans to have a SERIOUS conversation about a consitutional amendment making the rules for the administration of elections uniform for all 50 states, DC and the territories. Because the 10th amendment is failing spectacularly in regard to the nuts-and-bolts of electioneering. It's failing because people within criminal intent at the state level have done things - all of which are currently legal - in order to make voting a hellish experience for certain groups of people, but a delight for others.

    THAT MUST CHANGE.
     
    Cosmo, clennan, LangleyMan and 2 others like this.
  15. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,776
    Likes Received:
    19,337
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    FLORIDA:

    2 separate from each other St. Pete polls from Pinellas and Sarasota County, respectively, are showing a Biden (D) rout in two counties, one of which is considered an important bellwether county.

    First, Pinellas:

    http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2020_Pinellas_October14-2_J5TA9.pdf

    1,724 LV, MoE = +/-2.4
    Biden (D-challenger) 55.0
    Trump (R-Inc) 41.5
    Margin: Biden (D) +13.5%

    Second, Sarasota:

    https://de.scribd.com/document/480683774/StPetePolls-2020-HD72GEN-October18-P8VZJ
    418 LV, MoE = +/-4.8
    Biden (D-challenger) 56.3
    Trump (R-Inc) 40.2
    Margin: Biden (D) +16.1%

    Historical perspective:

    Pinellas County electoral history:
    2016: Trump +1.1%
    2012: Obama +6.03%
    2008: Obama +8.22%
    2004: Bush 43 +0.05%
    2000: Gore +3.97%

    Sarasota County electoral history:
    2016: Trump +11.49%
    2012: Romney +7.40%
    2008: McCain +0.10%
    2004: Bush 43 +8.31%
    2000: Bush 43 +6.36%

    As you can see, Sarasota is a far more R-leaning county than Pinellas. Also, there are far more registered Republicans in Sarasota County. Biden's current margin in Pinellas County is more than double Obama's 2008 margin. And were he to win Sarasota County by +16.1, this would mean that that county will have swung 27.6 points toward the Democratic Party between 2016 and 2020.

    St. Pete tends to lean about 1-2 points to the Left at times, but not always, but if you knock 2 points off the Biden margins, we are still looking at large landslide margins.

    I would really like to see a high quality poll out of Duval County - a very red county in Northern Florida.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2020
    Cosmo likes this.
  16. HurricaneDitka

    HurricaneDitka Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2020
    Messages:
    7,155
    Likes Received:
    6,476
    Trophy Points:
    113
  17. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,776
    Likes Received:
    19,337
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male

    Feel free to look at it that way if you look. But in reality, Biden is leading in: AZ, WI, MI, PA, NC, GA, FL, OH, IA, NE-02 and now, in TX.
     
    Cosmo and Curious Always like this.
  18. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    9,480
    Likes Received:
    4,822
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    This is called "Act 3" in the Demokkkrat polling production that they roll out each election cycle:

    ACT 1: Oversample Dems to show Dems with a double digit lead. This is meant to suppress Republican votes, especially due to people naturally wanting to be on the "winning team"...

    ACT 2: With about a month or so to go before election day, show those numbers "narrowing". This is meant to let Dems know that they still need to actually get out to vote (don't want them to be complacent).

    ACT 3: With about a week or two to go before election day, remove most or all of the Dem oversampling so that polling groups can refer back to their polls and make "accuracy" claims, so that people still keep believing in their fabrications...


    Rinse, Wash, Repeat...
     
  19. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    9,480
    Likes Received:
    4,822
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    hahahahahahahahahahaha..... you actually believe in such garbage??? hahahahahahahahahaha I would be surprised if Biden actually won ANY of those....

    You also think Biden is going to win in a landslide, don't you?? hahahahahahahahahahaha

    If you look at early voting data, things are not looking too well for Dems... They are underperforming in both black and youth votes, and suburbs in MN and WI for example are moving towards Trump...

    When the election is all said and done, I fully expect Trump to win at least 300 EC votes (my specific guess is 326 EC votes). Biden is toast. He's lost. Dems are simply trying to save the House at this point...
     
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2020
  20. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2017
    Messages:
    44,584
    Likes Received:
    12,436
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    [​IMG]

    You could have left out the bilge.
    How about presenting some evidence to back up your claim?
    They're not spending their money like they're thinking that way.
     
    Cosmo and Statistikhengst like this.
  21. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,776
    Likes Received:
    19,337
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male

    I will be doing a complete analysis on both Saturday and Sunday.
     
    Cosmo and Curious Always like this.
  22. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2017
    Messages:
    44,584
    Likes Received:
    12,436
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    I'll be watching for it.
     
    Statistikhengst likes this.
  23. btthegreat

    btthegreat Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 30, 2010
    Messages:
    16,368
    Likes Received:
    7,050
    Trophy Points:
    113
    IN order of priority.

    1.I want Biden to win.
    2. I want Biden to win with sufficient authority that challenges look more like a waste of GOP money, than a possible opportunity. this will affect down ballot races significantly including goals # 3 and 4. )
    3.I want Dems to take the Senate by at least a two vote margin ( willing to wait for runoffs in Georgia)
    4. I want Dems to take make significant gains in state houses and governors mansions
    5. I want Graham and Collins OUT
    6. I want Biden to take Texas.


    That is what I want in the order I want it.

    Down the road, I want voters to demand vote by mail a la Oregon, and force it through via initiatives all across this country so this false choice of safety, security and convenience in elections is resolved.
     
    Cosmo and clennan like this.
  24. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2016
    Messages:
    16,924
    Likes Received:
    13,462
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Female
    1. Biden win
    2. Republican Senate
    3. Pelosi gone
    4. Graham gone
    5. Americans wake up and realize the left and right wings are part of the same bird
    6. Americans wake up and realize that no elected jerk in DC cares about anyone except themselves
     
    Junkieturtle likes this.
  25. yabberefugee

    yabberefugee Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2017
    Messages:
    20,559
    Likes Received:
    8,956
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Though everyone knew that.
     

Share This Page