It looks like the Fall Surge is coming

I believe that CenterField has been a janitor in that big hospital of his for the past 40 years. Not that that’s a bad thing being a janitor or anything, but he appears to lack the bedside manner of a doctor or physician, the way that he fearmongers in every sentence that he types here.

 

So what. They both said the cop killed him.

 

You wish you were half as smart. If you were you could debate on facts instead of opinion.

 

Lockdown skeptics... I love it.

How do I know your article is BS? Because we know when people are dead. We are really good at it with few false positives.

I started tracking positive tests vs deaths quite some time ago and found an 80% correlation.

 

Well, I started a huge thread about vaccines. There are dozens of posts of mine, there.

http://www.politicalforum.com/index.php?threads/the-state-of-the-vaccines.576983/

In post #6 I say this:

"But an important point is that except for the Russian case, the other vaccines are being rushed in terms of how fast the development, production, and testing is going, but these companies and regulators are NOT cutting corners in terms of standard phase 1, 2, and 3 trials, so alarmists who say this vaccine will be dangerous are either disingenuous (with a political agenda) or not really understanding what is going on."

See post #30 where I'm trying to reassure people to accept the vaccines.

See post #38 where I go into another defense of the Warp Speed initiative.

See what I say in post #93, does it look to you like something that someone would be saying if the person didn't want the vaccine as soon as possible?

"Ok, back to vaccines. This piece of news greatly encourages me: the CDC is already getting ready to implement vaccine distribution as early as late October; if not, should be November or December"

Is this enough persuasion for you?

Post #95:

"Why exactly are you trying to downplay this? It's good news. The vaccines are coming... in certain countries even sooner. Brazil is already gearing up for the production and delivery of 45 million doses of the CoronaVac (Sinofarm/Instituto Butantan) in December. And that one has 97.4% of conversion rate.

I just hope the vaccines get well-distributed and well-accepted (which is an uphill battle) in time to dramatically decrease the contagion before the virus mutates too much."

Read post #119 to understand where I'm coming from.

Read post #126.

Then, post #139, where I berate someone for posting a cartoon indicating that Trump is rushing it:

"If a vaccine candidate passes phase 3 with flying colors it WILL be safe, or at least as safe as other vaccines in the past (given that absolute safety can't be known until post-market data comes in, but all vaccines need to start somewhere).

Please, don't undermine the acceptance of vaccines... we need them."

And so on and so forth...

Convinced, now?

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Just a little prime of my other positions on handling the pandemic:

I'm against any mask mandates
I'm for an educational campaign to get people to wear masks
I favor the correct kind of masks, not just any cloth mask, and I've been posting for people to know how to locate the correct ones and how to wear them properly
I don't favor lockdowns. The economy can't afford them. I do favor business (and schools) reopening but WITH appropriate containment measures of which I've suggested many.
I favor the earliest possible approval of safe and efficacious vaccines by the FDA and immediate distribution

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As for a Biden presidency I'm not impressed with the catastrophic predictions. All elections, each side says that if the other one wins, the sky will fall. Last I checked a few minutes ago the sky was still up there. As a non-affiliated, independent voter, I'm used to voting for both parties, and I'm used to their respective partisan points. I've already voted and my ballot is mixed, with several votes for Republicans and several votes for Democrats (my state was one of the first to send mail-in ballots and I've returned mine already).

I'm not impressed with the GOP in terms of healthcare and I believe that while with some positives (such as the Warp Speed Initiative, and others that I've listed elsewhere) overall Trump managed Covid-19 poorly.

Some of what Trump did and said irritated me so profoundly that I did not vote for him. Details would be off-topic here but they abundantly exist in my posting history including in the thread I've mentioned above.

But again, my vote against Trump doesn't make of me a liberal or a Democrat. I'm neither.

 

Why does your chart end in July? In a couple of days, we'll be in October. Your correlation may not hold. Trump just today announced a doubling of tests. We're going to have a lot more positives, many may be false, so there may not be a corollary increase in hospitalizations or deaths. That point is essentially what the article posted by @Eleuthera is saying.

 

Yeah. I just did it to prove correlation. Once I did that I'm happy with just keeping track of percent positives.
So just look at these two and you can see it still holds.

 

That was before the body cam footage was released. The body cam footage and transcripts indicate otherwise. George Floyd was clearly complaining of having trouble breathing well before Derek Chauvin started kneeling on him. You can’t blame Derek Chauvin for George Floyd’s fentanyl overdose.

 

Why are you swinging on his sack so much?

 

Not at the same ratio of cases to deaths. Twice as many cases in the summer spike with half the deaths. Sort of proves the point of @Eleuthera 's article. Media is highlighting the number cases to instill fear in the public while actual mortality has significantly decreased.

 

Yes. Cases don't matter. It's percent positives that matter.
Mortality really doesn't matter either. It's deaths per million that matters if you are comparing data.
He is trying to say the tests are no good. The tests are fine, based on deaths.

 

How many older people will have to die, and people with immune deficiency due to another illness? Scientists know very little about Covid-19 and they are still struggling to come up with an effective vaccine. Unlike other viruses like the flu Covid-19's anti-bodies a short life span of up to just 4 months. A vaccine might be useless in controlling Covid-19 if that is the case.

 

"The tests are fine, based on deaths."

That doesn't make any sense.

At least we can agree that case counts don't matter.

 

LOL, how do I know most of your posts are inaccurate and nonsensical? Because I've read most of them.

 

Most of the people who die from the flu are people over 70 years old and people with other health conditions. That was 80,000 recently. Flu shots are reformulated annually and we rarely get a flu "cocktail" with over 50% effectiveness.

We shouldn't be completely focused on Covid, just because they claim it's new. We have been exposed to multiple coronavirus strains in the common cold and flu. Scientists postulate that 30-50% of people who have never had Covid do have T-cells which would recognize Covid as a previously-experienced coronavirus, providing protection for a lot of the population. In that case, then how long antibodies last doesn't matter so much.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-00436-4

 

The response sounded quite a lot like "That article (written by Dr Mike Yeadon, the former CSO and VP, Allergy and Respiratory Research Head with Pfizer Global R&D and co-Founder of Ziarco Pharma Ltd.) is BS....because I've been putting numbers on graphs."

That's pretty stiff competition for levels of "expertise". lol

 

I don't know the answer to your question, but I do know, and you should know, that the virus was engineered for gain of function, in the US in 2015.

 

Scientists know a lot about Covid-19; actually the speed of knowledge is mind-boggling with literally thousands of scientific papers, the virus' genome being sequenced days after it emerged, and vaccines that in less than one year are finishing phase 3 trials, with immunogenicity of 97% to 100% of seroconversion. The vaccines won't be useless, much the opposite. They also induce cell immunity, so even if antibodies are short-lived, a second encounter with the antigen (in this case the live virus) will lead to fast re-making of antibodies. These vaccines are actually looking extremely good.

 

~ We would be doing much better if everyone wore a plastic face shield when in public places. They are comfortable, protect the entire face and actually stop a virus being expelled towards the wearer .
Those at high risk may also wish to wear a P100 respirator .
Fauci flip-flop is a fake and should be terminated for incompetence along with the CDC chief Redfield .

 

First you have to have the virus then you get the antibodies.

 

At least you now admit you are anti Trump which is something you have previously denied. Soon you'll admit you're a liberal.

 

That is an interesting article, pointing out the inaccuracy of PCR tests. Yesterday, Trump announced distribution of 150 Million Abbott Rapid Tests. CDC repetitively states that those are even less accurate than the PCR tests.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/resources/antigen-tests-guidelines.html

So we've run 1 Million tests with a relatively high inaccuracy and now we're going to flood the market next month and into November with more than double the number of tests with lower accuracy. They will focus distribution of tests in nursing homes and other senior residences, nurses, front-line workers, HBCU's, and broadly to school teachers and students across the country. There is your "fall surge".

And of course, if you are testing nursing home residents almost daily and that is where we already have an extremely high number of deaths from all causes, then we will have a fall/winter of high "Covid deaths". That sounds like the global plan.

 

So Trump is in on it too

 

Most likely he is.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/201...s-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html
If the death rate is 30x higher for 50-64 years old than for 18-25 years, I think I'll wear a mask...

Just have to wait and see:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us-previous.html