President Trump's path(s) to victory - 3 weeks out

You can't paint all Trumps supporters with one brush. From my personal observation I see a Trump win. I also acknowledge I may be wrong. We will just have to wait for the election.

 

So what's Biden's excuse for the massive enthusiasm gap?

 

most vote for results.

 

Biden supporters understand that Covid is real and not a liberal hoax.

Early voting looks to set a new record this election, already 15 million and counting. Dem voters typically early vote in larger numbers then Republicans.

 

Then nobody would vote for Trump if that was true.

 

The three time Nobel Peace Prize nominations would prove you different. I like the fact we don't have hordes pouring in over our southern border. China now paying tarrifs for their unfair trade dealings is a good thing. Nafta members now paying closer to their fair share. Economy setting records in spite of China Virus. A President speaking accountability to China for infecting the World.........Aw you don't want to hear those things. You've made up your mind. Trump says mean things. He should be more sensitive to win the "snowflake" vote.

 

You realize that if Trump loses the election, he will leave office with more unemployed then when he entered office?

Setting records despite Covid? LMAO

 

But they weren't inaccurate in 2016. The urban myth has been promoted by the media who misused popular opinion polls to create "news" about who would win the election. Rather than admit what they did, they blame the surprise result on "inaccurate" national polls.



The understanding of a potential Trump path depends on opinion polls in key states. Unfortunately, many state polls are run by smaller polling firms and have a small sample size.

 

Right. Don’t watch the polls watch the movements and spending of the campaigns. That alone will tell you if their internal polling corresponds to national polling.

The Trump campaign should not be defending state’s it won this late in the cycle. The campaign believes it’s in trouble. Their choice (lack of funds) to go dark in battle ground states is another sign.

Another thing to watch is the early voting, are the long lines consistent through the period? Or do they peak early and diminish?

Another inside straight is possible but wouldn’t want to be where the Trump campaign is currently at.

Today I’d call it 353-183 EC Biden with a worse case of 291 EC Biden.

This cycle looks more like ‘18 than ‘16.

 

He isn't whipping up tribal hatred.

 

I didn't say anything about "national polls". I've been pretty explicitly only looking at state-level polling. As for their accuracy, for one example, the RCP average for WI in 2016 had Clinton winning it by 6.5 points. Instead, she lost the state. The polls were off by over 7 points in that case!

 

Some are afraid and hiding, others attend rallies. In your personal experience you only notice the Trump supporters who are loud.

 

If you dig deeper into the demographics, you will see why these polls are unreliable. They over sample Democrats, which is odd in a state with a Republican majority legislature. They also over sample women, who tend to be more unfavorable to Trump. This creates a favorable increase towards Democrats that doesn't reflect reality. It's just poor methodology that guarantees a certain result...

 

That's fine, but I take it you understand my point.

Smaller firms. (1) Some polls in some states were accurate. (2) Some polling firms have decided to do a better job, but we don't know who they are or what they're doing differently.

 

The same is often true of Trumpers viewing Biden supporters. Why? Most partisans only see their opponents speaking out on TV or other mass media where the most grating or divisive get attention.

 

His voters were busy mailing in their votes for him. That's why they didn't attend the events.
LOL
How are you coping with your boy's defeat?

 

Looks like we're not the ones outraged... We got the result we wanted. Meet President-Elect Joseph Robinette Biden Jr, the 46 President of the United States of America.