2020 Presidential Election Electoral Endcount: Biden 306 / Trump 232, Biden +74 electors

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Statistikhengst, Nov 13, 2020.

  1. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    UNPATRIOTIC, UNAMERICAN, UNTRUTHFUL PROPAGANDA ALERT!

    The batshit crazy claims that some are making about millions of illegal votes would require the willing and criminal collusion of hundreds of thousands of BOE workers and poll workers from BOTH parties as well as Independent poll workers in order for this scenario to happen.

    That **** won't carry here. Here, we deal in facts.
     
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  2. Thingamabob

    Thingamabob Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    "Facts", huh? Where are your facts to back up your assessment on the political situation in North Korea? Russia? Ukraine? Belarus? Venezuela? WMD's in Irak? The Tuskegee Experiment? MK-ULTRA? Operation TP Ajax? I suppose your definition of "Conspiracy theory" = UNPATRIOTIC, UNAMERICAN, UNTRUTHFUL PROPAGANDA.
     
    Last edited: Nov 18, 2020
  3. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Please read the thread title and see if you can figure out what this thread is about. This thread is not about North Korea, nor is it about Russia, Ukrain, Belaruß, Venezuela, Irak, the Tuskegee experiment, this MK-Ultra things, etc.... because trolls have no chance with me.

    If you want a real discussion on these other things that you mentioned, then open a thread and invite me.

    Thank you for learning to concentrate yourself on the task at hand, nöööö
     
  4. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Addendum to Florida: the GOP picked-up FL-26 and Fl-27 in the 2020 election. Both of those seats were Democratic pick-ups in 2018.
     
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  5. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    HAWAII- Joe Biden (D) won 4 EV

    2020-11-017 prez results HAWAII 2020.png

    2020-11-017 prez results HAWAII 2020 EXCEL TABLE.png

    The Democrats easily held both congressional seats. HI-02 was an open seat, which Kailal'i Kahale won.
     
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  6. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    According to FOX News, Joe Biden's raw vote margin in the great state of Michigan has grown to +155,629, which is about 14 times larger than Trump's margin from 2016.

    There is no LEGAL way to overturn this win. Trump is really, really flailing here.

    Also, Georgia will be certifying the results and will declare Joe Biden the winner.

    For those who are still not getting it, this race is over.
     
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  7. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    According to FOX News, Joe Biden's raw vote margin in the great state of Pennsylvania has grown to +81,361 (+1.2%), which is twice as large as Trump's margin in the Keystone State from 2016.
     
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  8. yardmeat

    yardmeat Well-Known Member

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    I personally witnessed at least 3 million chupacabras voting. Better get my affidavit to Giuliani.
     
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  9. Thingamabob

    Thingamabob Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Please read the thread title and see if you can figure out what this thread is about. This thread is not about chupacabras or Guiliani .... because trolls have no chance with me.

    If you want a real discussion on these things that you mentioned, then open a thread and invite me.

    Thank you for learning to concentrate yourself on the task at hand.
     
  10. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    GEORGIA - Joe Biden (D) won 16 EV
    DEMOCRATIC PICK-UP over 2016

    2020-11-020 Wahl 2020 Georgia final - website.png

    2020-11-020 Wahl 2020 Georgia final.png

    Here you can see that Joe Biden outpaced the votes for the 14 congressional races in the same elections:

    2020-11-020 Wahl 2020 Georgia compare to congressional.png

    144,997 more votes were cast in the presidential in Georgia than in the 14 congressional races combined.
    Joe Biden scored 111,148 more votes than the votes for the 14 D congressional candidates combined.
    Donald Trump scored only 28,559 moe votes than the vote for 14 R congressional candidates combined.

    That there is proof positive that a good number of people who normally vote Republican still voted Republican in the congressional races, but cast their vote for Biden at the top of the ticket.

    The certified Georgia results were made official, signed, sealed and delivered today, making for the first official certification of a flipped race over 2016.

    Also, the Democrats picked up one seat in Georgia: GA-07, which was the closest race of 2018.

    The Democrats are now only 1 seat away from a 50/50 split-delegation from the Peach State.
     
  11. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Had a civics teacher in the 1980's had told me I would get to watch an actual attempt at a Coup d'état, I would have laughed.

    * May you live in interesting times * A blessing and a curse.

    I got to see it. It's interesting.


    It won't succeed, which is the most important part.
     

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  12. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    NORTH DAKOTA - Donald Trump (R) won 3 EV

    2020-11-021 2020 WAHL - NORTH DAKOTA.png

    2020-11-021 2020 WAHL - NORTH DAKOTA - Excel table.png

    The winning margins in 2016 and 2020 were practically identical to each other. Biden's topline percentage was 5% more than the D-nominee for ND's congressional seat and 7% more than the D-gub nominee's performance. The last time that this state even looked to be remotely competitive was in 2008.

    We are seeing that literally everywhere, even in states where Biden lost (and was expected to lose), he outperformed the downticket Ds.

    There was no party change in ND's lone congressional seat.
     
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  13. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    It's been 9 days since I mentioned the national popular vote. 9 days ago, Joe Biden had a +5.3 million vote margin over President Trump. According to both NBC, Fox News and USelection atlas, Biden's margin is now just over 6 million votes and the percentage spread is now +3.9%, just a tick more than Obama's 2012 margin.

    2020-11-021 2020 WAHL - NPV spread FOX news.png

    2020-11-021 2020 WAHL - NPV spread NBC.png

    Of the 2.94 million votes left to count, about 1.3 million are still out in NY and 269,000 are still outstanding in California, so more than half of the votes left to tally up are from two of the deepest blue states in the Union. Ohio still has 3% of it's votes to count. Maine still has 8% of its votes to count, for some unexplicable reason. Maybe they are renting bobsleds from Alaska to get those last votes in, who knows.

    There is no doubt that Joe Biden is going to go over 80 million votes and it's still very likely that he will go over 81 million, because of the remaining 2.94 million votes, what is left is going to be very lopsidedly for Joe Biden.

    Of course, as I have already written, a national popular vote win is not what decides a presidential election, but rather, the electors, but still, with this wide a spread, the Democrats can rightfully declare a mandate. Also, in only 1 of the last 8 presidential cycles has the Republican party out and out won in the National Popular Vote: in 2004, with George W. Bush's successful re-election.
     
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2020
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  14. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    LOUISIANA - Donald Trump (R) won 8 EV
    2020-11-021 2020 WAHL - LOUISIANA.png
    2020-11-021 2020 WAHL - LOUISIANA - excel table.png


    The winning margins in 2016 and 2020 were very close to each other. When you compare Biden's statistic to the congressional stats:

    2020-11-021 2020 WAHL - LOUISIANA congressional - excel table.png


    Biden's topline percentage was 4% more than the statewide popular vote for all 6 congressional districts. LA-05 goes into a run-off election (this was widely expected to happen).



    We are seeing that once again, even in states where Biden lost (and was expected to lose), he outperformed the downticket Ds.
     
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  15. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    President Trump has, in yet another Hail-Mary move, requested a recount of the votes in Georgia. He will get his recount, but it will be a machine recount and even less likely to move enough votes in his direction than the hand-count was. So, it is going to be a waste of time. Georgia just did a very picky hand-recount of all of the votes.

    Those results have already been certified in Georgia and the Governor of that state, Brian Kemp, who is no Joe Biden fan, has already declared Joe Biden (D) the winner of Georgia's 16 electoral votes. So, it's a done deal there.

    I guess Trump is going to tilt at windmills until they stop giving him cancer or something something. Because this is ridiculous.

    His inviting GOP state Reps from Michigan in order to twist their arms and nullify the vote in Michigan did not work, either, but it is very likely that what he did is very illegal and punishable under the law. I expect multiple lawsuits against him once he is a private citizen. Also, the MI Reps who took up his invite will now face massive scutiny back home in Michigan.

    Also, a Republican judge, Matthew Brann, threw out Trump's latest case in Pennsylvania, wrote in his decision: "This claim, like Frankenstein's Monster, has been haphazardly stitched together from two distinct theories in an attempt to avoid controlling precedent..." His decision was 36 or 37 pages long and filled with disdain for even having to look at the case because it is so badly put together.

    In Wisconsin, there are massive complaints that Trump supporters are disturbing the recounting process via illegal means in the 2 counties being recounted (Dane, Madison) by literally picking up stacks of ballots and simply trying to throw them in trash cans. Of course, others are stopping them from doing this. Many Trump supporters have brazenly lied and claimed to be impartial, independent observers so that actually 2 Trump supporters out ofthe sum total of three poll counters would be present at each table (they have to declare on an affadavit that they are truly impartial and independent, so this is a federal crime, punishable by jail-time, to note). One took every ballot that had any kind of crease on it and wanted to declare them all invalid. Of course, they are only trying to do this to the votes in heavily black precincts. So, everyone is seeing what they are trying to do. It will not work.

    I believe that is either the 28th or 29th case that Trump has lost since losing the election, yet refusing to concede. And none of this is going to keep the states, including the key battlegrounds, from certifying the results and declaring the electors for the winning sides, respectively.

    Years from now, historians will still be studying the amazing ugliness of how the Trump presidency ended, in complete and utter disrepute.

    Even Liz Cheney is telling Trump to put up or shut up.
     
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  16. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    KENTUCKY - Donald Trump (R) won 8 EV
    A small number of states in the NE and also Kentucky don't allow internet connections from European servers, a very, very short-sighted approach, so I am picking up the certified numbers from David Wasserman's popular vote tracker at the Cook Political Report.

    2020-11-022 Kentucky official results.png

    2020-11-022 Kentucky official results - excel table.png


    Biden did 3.5% better on topline and 4% better in losing margin than Hillary Clinton did in 2016, but a blowout is a blowout is a blowout and in deep red Kentucky, it was a blowout. When you compare Biden's statistic to the congressional stats:

    2020-11-022 Kentucky official results - congressional excel table.png

    Biden fared just marginally better than the combined House popular vote for KY. All 6 districts in KY were incumbents elections and all 6 were easy wins for the respective incumbents. After running a very close race in KY-06 in 2018, the results from 2020 must be very disappointing for the Democrats.
     
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  17. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    NEW HAMPSHIRE - Joe Biden (D) won 4 EV
    A small number of states in the NE and also Kentucky don't allow internet connections from European servers, a very, very short-sighted approach, so I am picking up the certified numbers from David Wasserman's popular vote tracker at the Cook Political Report.

    2020-11-022 New Hampshire official results.png

    2020-11-022 New Hampshire official results - excel table.png


    Biden improved the Democratic Party's statistic in New Hampshire considerably. His +7.35% win is between Obama's 2008 margin (+9.65%) and his 2012 margin (+5.88%). When you compare Joe Biden's performance to the two Democratic House incumbents:

    2020-11-022 NEw Hampshire official results - congressional excel table.png

    This is one of the very few states in the Union where the congressional candidates (combined statewide popular vote) was on par with Joe Biden's electoral statistic. However, in light of their 2018 HOR performances, the statistics for both House incumbents show some erosion.

    I would like to remind that in 3 of the last 6 elections (2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020), NH was a true battleground at the presidential level. In fact, in 2016, it was a nailbite. At the end of the day, NH was not even really competitive in 2020.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2020
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  18. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    VIRGINIA - Joe Biden (D) won 13 EV
    by a landslide margin, to boot
    2020-11-022 Virginia official results.png

    2020-11-022 Virginia official results - excel table.png

    Biden improved the Democratic Party's statistic in Virginia by about 5 points. His +10.11% win is the best winning percentage margin for a Democrat in this state since 1944. Yepp, you read that right. Obama flipped VA in 2008, with a +6.30% margin, retained the state in 2012 with a +3.87% margin, Hillary Clinton retained the state for the Democratic Party by a +5.32% margin. The last Democrat to win Virginia before Obama was LBJ in 1964 and in spite of a massive +24% national win, LBJ won VA by "only" +7.36%, less than Biden's margin. Harry Truman was the last Democrat before LBJ to take the state, but only by +6.85% over Thomas Dewey, once again, under Biden's margin. First in 1944, 76 years ago, can we find a Democratic winning margin larger than Biden's in the Old Dominion: FDR's 1944 winning margin was: +24.98%. So, a landslide margin in a state that, just 12 years ago was a hotly contested battleground tells us all something about how the electoral sands have shifted beneath our feet. When we get to Colorado and New Mexico, you will be seeing a similar story. I think it's pretty safe to say that while WI/MI/PA may not really be securely in the so-called "blue wall", VA/NM/CO sure are.

    How does Biden's Virginia performance match up to the VA congressional delegation (11 seats)?

    2020-11-022 Virginia official results - congressional excel table.png

    You can see that Biden considerably outperformed the combined D-congressional vote %margin in VA in 2020, but there is a caveat here: one seat that was a two man race in 2018 was uncontested in 2020, skewing the statistic somewhat. Also, the 3 Democrats who flipped seats in VA from red to blue in 2018 (VA-02, VA-07, VA-10) all retained their seats. In fact, Elaine Luria (VA-02) improved upon her 2018 statistic, while Abigail Spanberger (VA-07) and Jennifer Wexton /VA-10) had almost identical statistics to 2018. So, where Democrats may have failed elsewhere in the country, they sure did not here.

    I want to take a moment just to report how stupid the network reporting has been for VA come election night, and it has been this way for a long time. The largest of population centers in Northern Virginia always report in very late, those population centers have become massively Democratic, but the returns in VA always start with the least populated, reddest of counties. In 2008, at 19:30 ET, John McCain was +17% up on Obama, but by 22:52 on election night, every network had called the state for Obama, and he won in 2008 with a margin almost 4 points LESS than Biden's. The networks really, really REALLY need to reconsider how to report states that publish their returns in such a lopsided fashion.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2020
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  19. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Last edited: Nov 23, 2020
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  20. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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  21. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    BREAKING NEWS: Emily Murphy, the GSA employee who had been holding up the Biden transition has given up and finally admitted that Biden won the presidential election. She has now ascertained that he won and has now signed off on the funds for Biden's transition.

    It's about ****ing time.
     
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2020
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  22. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    She explained her logic in the memo, and also explained that this situation shows a flaw in the process.
     
  23. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    MICHIGAN - Joe Biden (D) won 16 EV
    DEMOCRATIC PICK-UP over 2016
    2020-11-024 MIchigan official results.png

    2020-11-024 MIchigan official results - excel table.png

    Biden's 2020 Michigan statistic looks a lot like Obama's 2008 Florida statistic (Obama won the Sunshine state by +2.80%).


    Here you can see that Joe Biden outpaced the votes for the 14 congressional races in the same elections:

    2020-11-024 MIchigan official results - congressional excel table.png

    Joe Biden's winning margin (+2.78%) is more than double the combined D-margin for all 14 congressional seat races combined in the Wolverine State (D +1.30%)

    116,162 more votes were cast in the presidential in Michigan than in the 14 congressional races combined.
    Joe Biden scored 115,113 more votes than the votes for the 14 D congressional candidates combined.
    Donald Trump scored only 31,971 moe votes than the vote for 14 R congressional candidates combined.

    This pattern is very similar to the pattern we saw in the D-pickup state of Georgia.


    The certified Michigan results were made official, signed, sealed and delivered last evening/early this morning, making for the first official certification of a flipped race over 2016.

    The congressional delegation in Michigan remained unchanged at D7 / R7.
     
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  24. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    I would just like to note that the combined electoral firepower of both Michigan and Georgia (each with 16 EV): 32 EV, is more electoral firepower than the state of Florida (29 EV).
     
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  25. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    MASSACHUSETTS - Joe Biden (D) won 11 EV

    2020-11-024 Massachusetts official results.png

    2020-11-024 Massachusetts official results - excel table.png

    Joe Biden's +33.46% winning margin and +1,215,000 raw vote margin is the largest landslide for a Democrat in the Bay State since LBJ's rout of 1964 (yes, in 1964, LBJ won Massachusetts by a stratospheric +52.74% margin more than +1.2 million raw votes in margin, and LBJ, let's not forget, was a Conservative Democrat from Texas) and the second best showing for a Democratic presidential nominee in this this state's entire electoral history. This is important when you consider that Joe Biden fared better here than three Democratic favorite sons from Massachusetts: John Kennedy (1960: +20.67%), Michael Dukakis (1988: +7.85%, against a Republican favorite son, George H.W. Bush, a fact most do not know) and John Kerry (2004: +25.16%). The only Republican native son to fare better than Joe Biden did in 2020 was Calvin Coolidge (born in Vermont, was however, Governor of Massachusetts), with +37.41% in 1924, 96 years ago.

    Biden improved the Democratic Party's statistic in Massachusetts by 6.26 points and it should be noted that Hillary Clinton's +27.20% landslide here in 2016 was larger than both of Obama's winning margins.

    How does Biden's Massachusetts performance match up to the MA congressional delegation (9 seats)?

    2020-11-024 Massachusetts official results - congressional excel.png

    This is one of the very few states (perhaps the only one) where Biden did worse than the congressional delegation from the same state, but here is to consider that 4 out of MA's 9 congressional races were D-shutouts, meaning that the Republican Party did not even field a candidate, in: MA-01, MA-03, MA-07 and MA-08. Had all of the races been two-party races, then I bet the statistics would have been very close to each other. But let's be real, when you are starting at a blowout margin of +33.5%.....

    In terms of raw vote totals, Biden also got 100,394 LESS votes than the 9 D-congressional nominees combined. Still, Joe Biden is the first Democrat in history to break over 2,000,000 total raw votes in the Massachusetts presidential race.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2020
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