2020 Presidential Election Electoral Endcount: Biden 306 / Trump 232, Biden +74 electors

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Statistikhengst, Nov 13, 2020.

  1. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    In the last hour, the great Commonwealth of Pennsylvania certified the presidential election results from 2020 and awarded PA's 20 electors to the winners: Joe Biden and Kamala Harris (Democratic Party).

    Here the press-release, just published:

    Department of State Certifies Presidential Election Results

    As soon as the canvass documents are out, I will crunch the numbers and such.
     
    Derideo_Te likes this.
  2. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Derideo_Te likes this.
  3. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    The winning Democratic presidential ticket of Joe Biden / Kamala Harris has now gone over 80,000,000 raw votes in the national popular vote.
    The losing Republican presidential ticket of Donald Trump / Mike Pence is about 100,000 away from 74,000,000 raw votes.
    Both tickets have set new raw-vote records for their respective parties.

    There are 2.6 million votes left to tally, the majority of them from California, New York and Ohio.

    It is expected that Biden will go over 81 million, perhaps 81.5 million total raw votes, when all is said and told.

    Biden has already exceeded Obama's 2012 winning percentage margin.

    2020-11-025 Biden is now over 80 million raw votes - COOK REPORT.png

    2020-11-025 Biden is now over 80 million raw votes - CNN.png

    2020-11-025 Biden is now over 80 million raw votes - NBC.png

    2020-11-025 Biden is now over 80 million raw votes - FOX.png
     
    Derideo_Te likes this.
  4. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    NEW MEXICO - Joe Biden (D) won 5 EV
    2020-11-025 New Mexico 2020 official results.png

    2020-11-025 New Mexico 2020 official results - excel table.png


    Joe Biden's +10.79% winning margin and +99,720 raw vote margin is the largest landslide for a Democrat in this state since Obama's 2008 margin of +15.13%. This is only the 4th time in 60 years where a Democrat won this state with a double-digit margin. Donald Trump's topline % of 43.50% is actually an improvement over 2016, but in absentia a third party candidate (who hailed from this state in 2016), we see that Biden improved upon the Democratic topline but just a smidge over +6%.

    Also, Biden broke over the half-million mark in raw votes, for the very first time in this state's electoral history. And in the total raw vote, NM came pretty close to the million mark, I suspect that by 2028, this state will be easily over the million-line.

    Biden improved the Democratic Party's margin statistic in New Mexico by +2.58 points.

    How does Biden's New Mexico performance match up to the NM congressional delegation (3 seats)?

    2020-11-025 New Mexico 2020 official results - excel table - congressional.png

    On margin, Biden did 1 point better than the D-congressional candidates, but on the topline percentage, the D-congressional candidates actually did slightly better than Biden himself. The reason for this is that in the presidential vote, there was still 2.21% for third party candidates, while in the congressional races, there was just a smatter of write-in votes, but no votes at all for third party candidates. The R-congressional candidates combined scored +5,892 more raw votes than Trump, indicating a small amount of ticket-splitting at the ballot box.

    The Democratic Party lost a seat: NM-02, which was one of the closest races of 2018 and with the same two candidates again this time around, this time, the Republican, Yvette Herrell, won. So, in spite of losing the state by a landslide margin to Biden in 2020, the Rs actually picked up a congressional seat, here.
     
    Derideo_Te and Curious Always like this.
  5. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2016
    Messages:
    16,924
    Likes Received:
    13,462
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Female
    @Statistikhengst - you're SO nerdy! I love it.

    It's the most interesting election of my lifetime.
     
    btthegreat likes this.
  6. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    *blush*!!!!!

    :blowkiss:
     
    Derideo_Te likes this.
  7. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    INDIANA - DONALD TRUMP (R) won 11 EV
    2020-11-025 Indiana 2020 official results.png

    2020-11-025 Indiana 2020 official results - excel table.png


    Donald Trump's +16.06% winning margin and +487,103 raw-vote margin is somewhat less than his 2016 statistic against Hillary Clinton, but a landslide is a landslide is a landslide, and this was most certainly a landslide. In context, his 2020 statistic is less than George W. Bush's 2004 re-election statistic and also less than George H. W. Bush (41)'s 1988 numbers, but larger than Bush (43)'s 2000 performance and Bush (41)'s 1992 showing. Trump's 2020 statistic is also less than both of Ronald Reagan's showings in 1980 and 1984 and decisively less than both the re-elections of Richard Nixon in 1972 and Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956. However, for a long time, Indiana has been considered an R+15 state, so Trump's 2020 statistic is right within that statistical view of this state. It's no surprise that he won, and by a comfortable margin, at that.

    However, Joe Biden came in with over 40% of the popular vote in this Republican bastion, something that Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Bill Clinton (1992), Michael Dukakis, Walter Mondale, Jimmy Carter, George McGovern, Hubert Humphrey and Adlai Stevenson cannot claim. In fact, only one Democrat in the last 70 years has come over 40% twice in Indiana: Obama in both 2008 (where he won) and 2012 (where he lost).

    On the whole, Biden improved the Democratic Party's statistic in this state (over 2016) by 2.9 points, a small increase, but interesting in light of the fact that the sitting Republican Vice President of the United States, Mike Pence, comes from Indiana.

    How does Trump's Indina performance match up to the IN congressional delegation (9 seats)?

    2020-11-025 Indiana 2020 official results - excel table - congressional.png


    On margin, the combined R-congressmen (and women) did slightly better than Trump, with +17.96% statewide compared to Trump's 16.06%. Also, more raw votes were cast for the 9-R-congressional candidates combined (1,735,293) than for Trump at the top of the ticket (1,729,516), while Joe Biden scored decisively more raw votes (1,242,413) than the 9 D-congressional candidates combined (1,197,161). When you consider that Libertarian congressional candidates were on the ballot in 5 of 9 CDs (all of the 63,984 raw votes in the congressional excel table), but only 61,183 total "other" votes were cast in the presidential race, the only plausible explanation for Biden's better showing, in spite of losing by 16 points, is that some Republicans voted for their Republican candidate in the congressional races but for Biden in the presidential race.

    In the Indiana congressional delegation, there was no change in the composition: it is D 2 / R 7 just as it was two years ago, but the Democrats did statistically worse in every district except IN-05, where it was a surpsingly close race.

    Fun factoid: during the gilded age (1876-1900), the two swing states in the Union were: New York and INDIANA. What a difference a century makes.
     
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2020
    Derideo_Te likes this.
  8. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    UTAH - DONALD TRUMP (R) won 6 EV
    2020-11-025 UTAH official results.png

    2020-11-025 UTAH official results - excel table.png


    Donald Trump's +20.48% winning margin and +304,858 raw-vote margin is somewhat better than his 2016 statistic against Hillary Clinton, but this time around there was no third-party candidate and expectation was that Trump would jump to the normal GOP +40% margin level at this state. That did not happen. However, a landslide is a landslide is a landslide, and this is still a landslide.

    Joe Biden's 37.65% of the statewide vote is the best showing for a Democrat in this state since 1964 (LBJ won it in that year) and the third highest topline % for a Democrat in the last 70 years, after 1964 and 1960.

    On the whole, Biden improved the Democratic Party's statistic in this state (over 2016) by 2.6 points, a small increase, but interesting since, well, Utah....

    How does Trump's Utah performance match up to the UT congressional delegation (4 seats)?

    2020-11-025 UTAH official results - excel table - congressional.png


    On margin and in total raw votes, the R-congressional delegation did slightly better than Trump. However, Biden did better in both losing margin and in raw-votes than the D-congressional candidates.

    In UT-04, the Republicans recaptured a D-pickup from 2018, but look at the margins: the races in both 2018 and 2020 were very close.
     
    Derideo_Te likes this.
  9. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    NEVADA - Joe Biden (D) won 6 EV
    2020-11-027 NEVADA results.png

    2020-11-027 NEVADA results excel table.png

    Joe Biden's +2.39% winning margin and +33,596 raw vote margin is is statisticlly, technically, 0.03% worse than Hillary Clinton's showing in the Silver State in 2016, with the difference being that the Independent/other vote in Nevada was considerably larger, keeping Clinton under 50%, while Biden went over 50%. In reality, their margins were pretty much identical to each other.

    Historically, this is not the first lean margin in this state, not by a longshot. In fact, it reminds a great deal of George W. Bush's 2004 win in this state:

    2020-11-027 NEVADA results excel table margin compare to past margins (Leip).png

    In 2004, then Pres. Bush won in Nevada was +2.59%. You can see from the graphic above that in the 8 presidential cycles since and including 1992, the Nevada wins were in single digits in 7 of those 8, and under +3.6 in 6 of those 7, so, excepting Obama's landslide in 2008 and his solid win in 2012, this state has been a nail-biter over the last 28 years. (Note: the color coding at Dave Leip's USELECTION ATLAS website is in reverse colors, red for Democratic Party and blue for Republican Party).


    How does Biden's Nevada performance match up to the NV congressional delegation (4 seats)?

    2020-11-027 NEVADA results excel table congressional.png

    You can see that the results are very close to each other. Biden won by +2.39% statewide, the four D-congressional candidates combined won by +2.34% statewide. But, whereas Joe Biden came over 50%, the 4 D candidates landed one percent lower, making for a high plurality win in the state instead of a majority win. The two raw-vote winning margins (Biden +33,596, congressional D's +31,699) are also very similar to each other. In 2004, Bush 43 (R) won by only +21,500 votes, just for some perspective, here.

    In Nevada, all four congressional seat elections were incumbent elections, all four incumbents won re-election and all four suffered a shrinkage in their winning margins compared to 2018.

    So, all in all, there was much consistency between Biden's win here and the congressional races.
     
    Derideo_Te likes this.
  10. btthegreat

    btthegreat Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 30, 2010
    Messages:
    16,378
    Likes Received:
    7,057
    Trophy Points:
    113
    You could destroy our stereotypes about you by telling us about your time as QB of the high school football team, your reputation as a 'player' among the young ladies, and your frat house experiences drunk and stoned with your 'frat bros' and how you barely passed any of your classes because you skipped school and bought your papers written by someone else.

    Or you could tell us about your exciting wins at the chess board, how you spent all your time talking about software and microchips with your friends, loved a good Sci fi book, and finally got your first date at a dungeons and dragons convention.
     
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2020
    Derideo_Te likes this.
  11. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male

    OMG LOL

    I give your posting a landslide margin of +15,000.69%, give or take 1 / 1000th of a hair on a cheetah's rear end.

    Note to self: never read a btthegreat posting and drink coffee at the same time.

    So, let's go through that stereotype list:

    -I can play football, was not a QB, ever. I was, however, good at wide receiver. 1 million gay guys just chuckled, I am told. Chuckle away, dudes, I took it wide, I took it hard and I kept on a running!! Once, I ran in the wrong direction. **** happens, nöööööö.

    -In High School and College, I was very shy with the ladies and waited for them to rip my clothes off and have their way with me so I could claim to be an innocent virgin afterwards. It was a pretty good racket and even worked for a while!

    -My frat was a professional frat, the worst thing we did was to constantly repaint the huge rock at the entrance to our University. Hot glowing pink, anyone?

    -Stoned? What's that? (eats LSD paper, goes outside, holds a very intelligence existential conversation with a nice field of daisies in a slew of intergalactic languages that no one understands, floats back home via levitation)

    -Chess? What's chess?? DONKEY KONG, bro, DONKEY KONG!

    Where I came from, people did cowtipping for fun. I suppose you could say we tipped them into dungeons with lots of dragons. It could be that the farmers whose cows we tipped were acually the dragons.

    And to put this totally honest and not in any way exaggeratted eyewitness testimony about one certain young Statistikbuck a time frame we all can enjoy: when I was in college, the computer programming language was: VRX COBOL-12. And a "modem" meant that you stuck your landline telephone into a device with 2 scary looking sucker-cups and dailing up took about the amount of time it takes to brew a cup of coffee.

    However, when I was not on the Earth doing dorky things, my father Jor'el was teaching me how to use my superpowers and avoid kryptonite!!!

    I now give this totally OT posting of mine a landslide margin of 6 google % and a swing of 4 continents worth of numbers.

    Statistikhengst 538 / nerds 0
     
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2020
    Derideo_Te and btthegreat like this.
  12. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    The US Court of Appeals for the 3rd circuit has unanimously rejected the Trump campaign appeal as applies to Pennsylvania, especially where the Trump campaign sued to have the certification of votes "uncertified".

    The decision is written in a manner that leaves no doubt that the judges are pissed off beyond belief that a campaign, any campaign, would sue without any evidence. And in the complaint, right at the beginning, it reminds that once again, eternally failed attorney Rudy Guiliani has specifically said in court more than once that they are not claiming fraud, while at every public event, they are. So, the judges are well aware of the deception going on here.

    203371np.pdf (uscourts.gov)

    I mean, this is just plain old sad. The Trump presidency, which has least had a chance to end in grace and humility and kindess, will end in disgrace and will be ridiculed for generations.


    2020-11-027 US appeals court number 3.png

    2020-11-027 US appeals court number 3 - 2.png
     
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2020
  13. btthegreat

    btthegreat Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 30, 2010
    Messages:
    16,378
    Likes Received:
    7,057
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I was definitely more of a nerd than you could even contemplate. Still am, but don't expect me remember how to simplify a fraction let alone understand statistics or probability. Now I can play chess and I really got a secret thrill at diagraming a sentence. I used to read the Oxford English dictionary for pleasure. I learned that none of these were really the best way to jumpstart a romantic evening, gay or straight!
     
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2020
    Derideo_Te and Statistikhengst like this.
  14. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    ARKANSAS - Donald Trump (R) won 6 EV
    2020-11-027 Arkansas results.png

    2020-11-027 Arkansas results - excel table.png


    Donald Trump's +27.62% winning margin and +336,715 raw vote margin is a big landslide landslide for a Republican in a state that just 20 years, was just barely won by George W. Bush (43). He just every so slightly improved upon his 2016 performance, making Arkansas the second state thus far among the very few that did not drift to the Left in terms of swing, but rather, further to the right. 4 years ago, I mentioned that Trump's 2016 Arkansas margin was the 2nd largest in Republican history in this state, after Richard Nixon's blowout +38.11% margin from his 1972 re-election. Trump's 2020 margin in this state therefore supplants his 2016 margin and is now the 2nd largest win on the presidential level in this state in all of it's history.

    Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump improved their parties' topline % performance over 2016 because the 3rd party vote shrunk in this year.


    How does Trump's performance match up to the AR congressional delegation (4 seats)?

    2020-11-027 Arkansas results - excel table - congressional.png

    There are interesting parallels between Arkansas and Massachusetts. Yes, you heard me right: Massachusetts.

    This is one of the very few states (perhaps the only one) where Trump did worse than the congressional delegation from the same state, but here is to consider that 1 out of AR's 4 congressional races were R-shutouts, meaning that the Democratic Party did not even field a candidate, in AR-01. Had all of the races been two-party races, then I bet the statistics would have been very close to each other. But let's be real, when you are starting at a big landslide margin of +27.6%..... Something very similar happened in Massachusetts, where the combined D-congressional statistic was considerably better than Biden's.

    But it wasn't just the shutout race in AR-01 that caused a far larger percentage margin for the 4 R-congressional candidates combined (+42.21%) than Trump's statewide margin. In terms of raw vote totals, Trump also got 61,649 LESS votes than the 4 R-congressional nominees combined, while Joe Biden got 93,447 MORE votes than the 3 D-congressional candidates combined. Had there been 4 D-congressional candidates, I bet that those raw vote numbers would have been almost identical.
     
    FoxHastings and Derideo_Te like this.
  15. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2015
    Messages:
    50,653
    Likes Received:
    41,718
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Since this is a Nerdfest thread I am going to chime in with some really dorky stuff about the District of Columbia that only obtained the right for citizens residing in the district to vote in presidential elections in 1964. It is a very Democratic leaning area so it is no surprise that it has supported the Dem candidate in all 15 elections to date.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_elections_in_Washington,_D.C.

    What I found fascinating was that Nixon is the highest scorer on the GOP side with 22% and 18% in 68 and 72 respectively. Goldwater, Ford, St Reagan and Bush sr all managed to have support in the teens although 3rd parties did play a small role when Bush sr received just less than 10% against Bill Clinton in 1992.

    The lowest Republican score was McCain at 6.5% prior to the biggest LOSER*-in-Chief's totals of 4% in 2016 and 5.4% in 2020.

    This trivia is brought to you by Geekapalooza and supported by donations from pencil-necks who find this fascinating.
     
  16. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Derideo_Te likes this.
  17. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    MAINE - Joe Biden (D) won 3 of 4 EV, Donald Trump (R) won 1 of 4 EV
    2020-11-028 Maine results - split decision 001.png
    2020-11-028 Maine results - split decision 000.png

    I picked the stats up from the Cook Report as Maine releases the data as a downloadable excel file (linked to in my own excel table).

    2020-11-028 Maine results - excel table.png

    As Maine and Nebraska are the only two states in the Union that award electors based on performance in each congressional district, in my excel table you see the statewide stats and the stats for both CDs in Maine and when Nebraska has certified its results, I will do the same for that state as well. Donald Trump picked up ME-02 in the 2016 election and retained it for the Republican Party in 2020.

    Joe Biden's near landslide +9.07% margin of victory marks a +6 point improvement on margin over Hillary Clinton's electoral record in this state. The race in Maine was not a nail-biter this time, not even close.

    Also, Biden's 435,072 raw votes is a record-setter for this state and the total raw vote of 819,461 is the first time this state came over 800,000 raw votes. Donald Trump's +7.44% margin in ME-02 represents erosion over his margin from 2016. Interestingly enough (when we get around to it), you will see that in Nebraska, Joe Biden picked up NE-02 (Omaha) by a similar margin.

    How does Biden's Maine performance match up to the ME congressional delegation (2 seats)?

    2020-11-028 Maine results - excel table - congressional.png

    You can see that the two D-congressional candidates combined did better than Biden himself but that more total votes were cast in the presidential than in the congressional races. Very interesting is that Jared Golden, who barely one ME-02 in 2018, and that through ranked voting after he failed to get over 50% in the first round, came easily over 53% this time around and with a +6.09% margin in the same CD that Trump won on the presidential level by +7.44%. So, surely there were some Mainers in the 2nd district who voted split ticket.
     
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2020
  18. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    ALABAMA - DONALD TRUMP (R) won 9 EV
    2020-11-028 Alabama results.png

    2020-11-028 Alabama results - excel table.png


    Donald Trump's +25.46% winning margin is 2.26 points less than his 2016 performance in this state, but his +591,546 raw-vote margin is marginally better than his 2016 statistic against Hillary Clinton. Still, his 2020 margin is the 4th highest for any Republican presidential nominee in the history of this state, after Nixon 1972, Goldwater 1964 and Trump 2016.

    Joe Biden's 36.57% of the statewide vote is less than Obama's two runs in this state but very close to John Kerry's statistic from 2004.



    How does Trump's Alabama performance match up to the AL congressional delegation (7 seats)?

    2020-11-028 Alabama results - excel table - congressional.png

    On margin, the R-congressional delegation did considerably better than Trump. However, 2 of the 6 congressional seats held by Republicans were R-shutout seats, which helped the overall statistic in the stte.
     
    Derideo_Te likes this.
  19. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    PENNSYLVANIA - Joe Biden (D) won 20 EV
    DEMOCRATIC PICK-UP over 2016
    2020-11-028 Pennsylvania results.png

    (The PA website is revamping its elections section right now, I picked up the data directly from the certificate of ascertainment that has already been published by the US Archives as part of the congressional record).

    2020-11-028 Pennsylvania results - excel table.png


    The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, like most all other states, set a new total raw-vote record for itself and both Joe Biden and Donald Trump set raw-vote records for their respective parties. Showing the true battleground nature of this state, it was won by less than 2 points now for the second election in a row. Important to note is that Joe Biden indeed did come over 50% here, the lawsuits on the part of the Trump campaign vis-a-vis PA have all been rejected by a number of courts and as you can see, the certificate of ascertainment is already public record.

    How did Joe Biden's performance in PA compare to the combined votes in the 18 congressional races?

    2020-11-028 Pennsylvania results - excel table - congressional.png

    This is interesting.

    Joe Biden's winning margin (+1.16%) is 3.41 points better than the D-losing-margin (R +1.25) for all 18 congressional seat races combined in the Keystone State.

    133,915 more votes were cast in the presidential in Pennsylvania than in the 18 congressional races combined.
    Joe Biden scored 109,108 more votes than the votes for the 18 D congressional candidates combined.
    Donald Trump scored 55,279 LESS votes than the vote for 18 R congressional candidates combined.

    This pattern is very similar to the pattern we saw in the D-pickup state of Georgia.

    The certified Pennsylvania results make for the third official certification of a flipped race over 2016, after Michigan and Georgia and for the second official certification of a state that Trump won from the "blue wall" in 2016 but lost in this year, which was the promise that Joe Biden made as he was running for the nomination, namely, to rebuild the blue wall in the upper midwest states.

    The congressional delegation in Pennsylvania remained unchanged at D9 / R9 and all incumbents retained their seats, but as you can see from the excel table, the congressional Democrats in this state lost a lot of ground over their performance in 2018.
     
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2020
    Derideo_Te likes this.
  20. Bisquit

    Bisquit Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2014
    Messages:
    890
    Likes Received:
    361
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Hello Stat. I've missed your in depth analysis.
     
    Statistikhengst likes this.
  21. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    OHIO - DONALD TRUMP (R) won 18 EV
    Ohio loses its bellwether status

    2020-11-028 Ohio results.png

    2020-11-028 Ohio results - excel table.png


    Donald Trump's +8.03% winning margin in the Buckeye State (my home-state) is is almost a spitting-image of his 2016 performance there (+8.07%). A 0.04% erosion in margin is, when the number is this big, nothing more than statistical noise. Interesting to note is that both Joe Biden and Donald Trump improved the topline performance of their respective parties by 2 points, as the third party / scattervote % dissipated over 2016.

    This is now the 8th election cycle in a row where Ohio was won by a single digit margin. You have to go back 32 years in history, to the year 1988, to find a double digit winning margin in this state, which is better known for highway construction cones than for buckeyes these days.

    But the fact that the electoral sands around the entire nation could shift so radically since 2016 and yet, Ohio's results kind of look like a carbon copy of the cycle before (which often happens in Oklahoma) tells me that Ohio has drifted considerably to the right in terms of voting habits.

    Dave Leip's US election atlas is reporting 10,000 more raw votes than the certified document, I will research this. Sometimes, contested write-in votes are either added or deleted after certification but I have a hard time believing that there are 10,000 contested write-ins in my home state.

    A dead bellwether: for whom the Bell tolls.
    The last time a Democratic nominee won the presidency without winning Ohio was John F. Kennedy in 1960; he won with 303 electoral votes. Only, in 1960, then Vice-President Richard Nixon won Ohio by +6.57% while Kennedy won nationally by +0.16%, so the "pull" away from the winning party in that year was R +6.83 points. This time around, the end-statistic for Joe Biden nationally is not quite finished, but he is surely at +4.15% (this margin will grow), so Trump's win in Ohio represents a "pull" in Ohio of at least R +12.1 points away from the winning party. That's a big counter-pull, to say the least.

    Joe Biden's 45.25% of the statewide vote is less than Obama's two runs in this state but is similar to Al Gore's topline statistic from 2000.

    How does Trump's Ohio performance match up to the OH congressional delegation (16 seats)?

    2020-11-028 Ohio results - excel table - congressional.png

    On margin, the R-congressional delegation did about 6 points better than Trump.

    Overall, 160,662 more raw votes were cast in the presidential election in Ohio than for the 16 congressional districts combined.
    Joe Biden scored 227,665 more raw votes than the 16 D-congressional candidates combined.
    Donald Trump scored 98,053 LESS raw votes than 16 R-congressional candidates combined.
    There was no change at all in the Ohio congressional delegation: all 16 races were incumbent races and in all 16, the incumbent won.
     
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2020
    Derideo_Te and Curious Always like this.
  22. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Thank you!
     
    Derideo_Te likes this.
  23. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    TEXAS - DONALD TRUMP (R) won 38 EV
    They grow them Electors big down yonder!

    2020-11-028 Texas results.png

    2020-11-028 Texas results - excel table.png


    Donald Trump's +5.58% winning margin in the Lone-Star State represents a margin shrinkage of -3.4 points, which is statistically significant. Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump set topline raw-vote records in this state, it being the first time for not just one, but rather, both parties well over 5,000,000 raw-votes a piece. Just to put this into historical perspective: Donald Trump's topline raw vote total is almost the same as the ENTIRE raw vote total from this state from 1992, a year when not just one, but rather, two Texans (Bush 41, Ross Perot) were on the ballot.

    Democrats had high hopes for Texas and indeed, much polling showed a tie here. The end polling aggregate for Texas showed: Trump +1.11. So, the polling aggregate was too rich to the left by 4.5 points, whereas +/-4.0 is the standard margin of error, so the polling aggregate was just ever so slightly outside the MoE, not anything to be screaming at mountains about.

    Joe Biden's 46.48% of the statewide popular vote in the presidential race is the best showing for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter won this state in 1976, 44 years ago. His percentage comes closest to Adlai E. Stevenson's 1952 topline (46.69%).

    How does Trump's Texas performance match up to the TX congressional delegation (36 seats)?

    2020-11-028 Texas results - excel table - congressional 001.png
    2020-11-028 Texas results - excel table - congressional 002.png
    2020-11-028 Texas results - excel table - congressional 003.png
    2020-11-028 Texas results - excel table - congressional 004.png

    On margin, the R-congressional delegation did 3.7 points better than Trump.

    Overall, 221,430 more raw votes were cast in the presidential election in Texas than for the 36 congressional districts combined.

    Of those votes:
    Joe Biden scored 362,453 more raw votes than the 36 D-congressional candidates combined.
    Donald Trump scored 36,365 less raw votes than 36 R-congressional candidates combined.
    That alone is proof-positive that a number of voters voted split-ticket: for the R in the congressional race, but for Joe Biden in the presidential race. There is quite literally no other plausible, mathematical way to describe a discrepancy like this.

    There was no change at all in the TEXAS congressional delegation, in spite of the fact that 6 incumbents from Texas retired in this cycle. The Republicans had margin shrinkage in 5 districts, in all R CDs, they improve their statistic. The two Democrats who flipped seats in 2018 retained those seats in 2020.
     
    Derideo_Te likes this.
  24. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    With the TX quick analysis, I have now reached the halfway point, having written here on this thread about 26 of 51 "states" (including DC), in the following order:

    DE, VT, SD, WY, OK, SC, FL, HI, GA, ND, LA, KY, NH, VA, MI, MA, NM, IN, UT, NV, AR, ME, AL, PA, OH and TX.

    By 2020-12-013 I should be done with the other 25 states and then we will have the complete picture before the electors meet in their respective states to officially cast their votes for President.

    There are a number of states out there that are apparently officially done with the counting, but have no yet updated their website, for instance: MN, NC, TN. Sometimes, a state holds up final publishing because something is not in order with a downballot race. That has happened in North Carolina more than once. In fact, because of electoral fraud on the part of the Republican campaign in NC-09 in 2018, the race from that November was never certified and a new race was called.

    Surely in the coming week, there will be a flood of states that will be getting their numbers done and in and certified and all that jazz.

    It takes me a tad longer because I am crunching the HOR numbers simultaneously with the presidential numbers, for comparative purposes.

    One final note for this subject today: any or all of these state numbers that have already been certifite may still be slightly adjusted/amended. For many states, there can be write-in ballot challenges, also the resorting of write-in ballots where the person actually wrote the name of a major party candidate instead of filling in the scantron circle, etc. It happens every cycle and is usually about 500 to 1,000 additional votes, scattered all over the country, when all is said and done. The adjustments have never until now changed the declared victor of a race.

    And mistakes can indeed happen. As late as May 2005, the great state of Mississippi adjusted it's raw vote total for President George W. Bush (43) from the 2004 GE down by exactly 10,000 votes, due to a clerical error in one county. In 2012, in late December, a similar mistake of 3,000 votes too many for Mitt Romney was discovered in Hennepin County, Minnesota (also a clerical error), and the totals were corrected for the congressional record.

    But essentially, by December 13th, we really should be at the end-numbers for the 2020 election.

    -Stat
     
    Derideo_Te likes this.
  25. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2015
    Messages:
    50,653
    Likes Received:
    41,718
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Thank you for all of this in depth analysis, Stat.

    Duly noted that the totals in the presidential race are higher than the corresponding district races in these states but I was wondering, given your write-in comment above, if the discrepancy can be accounted for from the totals of 3rd party candidates for those House races?
     
    Cosmo and Bowerbird like this.

Share This Page