How did Roy Cooper win in North Carolina?

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Matthewthf, Dec 10, 2020.

  1. Matthewthf

    Matthewthf Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Honest question here. I saw many people from NC asking the same question and saying they think Roy cheated with fraud in a discusion in a post Trump had on FB and it got me thinking.

    Roy Cooper (D) beat Dan Forrest (R) by over 200,000 votes and the media called that race quickly for Govenor.

    Yet Trump won the state after the media took forever to call the state at 94% reporting.

    How does Trump win North Carolina but a Democrat still wins the govenor seat? If Trump received the majority of votes I would think Dan Forrest would also receive the majority of votes.

    Is Roy more popular? Was there a reason Dan lost? What am I missing?

    I honestly want to know why people chose a Democrat for Govenor but voted for Trump in NC. Anyone know?
     
  2. Sallyally

    Sallyally Well-Known Member Donor

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    Roy Cooper was the incumbent, perhaps he’s popular and has proven himself a good governor.
    It seems that the choice of president depends on different stuff from the choice of governor.
     
  3. (original)late

    (original)late Banned

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    You need to remember the opposite also happened.

    Voters in a bunch of Red states rejected Trump, but voted R downballot.
     
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2020
  4. joesnagg

    joesnagg Banned

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    Maybe 2020 will be remembered as The Year of Split Ballots. A lot to be analyzed beyond the presidential race.
     
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  5. (original)late

    (original)late Banned

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    Indeed.
     
  6. balancing act

    balancing act Well-Known Member

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    I live in NC, and he is generally seen as a pretty good governor, and the Forrest wasn't the strongest candidate. Of course they had their "Run" "Forrest""Run yard signs lined up like that. lol We have a Republican State legislature that isn't very popular. Forrest had some ardent supporters, but mostly for party only and not enough of them.
    Didn't surprise anyone I know of here.
     
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  7. Spooky

    Spooky Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Statistically in history the governorship goes the opposite of the presidential vote.

    There are tons of theories why but nobody knows for sure.

    But if you making a bet at the track that would be c9nsidered a safe bet.
     
  8. Chrizton

    Chrizton Well-Known Member

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    Cooper polled ahead the entire election so it would hard to say he cheated really. Politics are odd. A few years back my congressional district went for Obama and a tea-party lite candidate for house.
     
  9. TheGreatSatan

    TheGreatSatan Banned

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    This is a lie. Trump has the highest approval rating among Republicans than even Reagan. Voting for democrats is the most anti American thing an American can do.
     
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2020
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  10. (original)late

    (original)late Banned

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    You're missing the obvious.
     
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  11. Phyxius

    Phyxius Well-Known Member

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    Unlike you, NC voters apparently don't slavishly vote straight ticket.
     
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  12. Spim

    Spim Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You've never done that before?

    Not everyone votes party line, I've probably only done that twice in 30+ years, so that's 15+ elections.
     
  13. Sanskrit

    Sanskrit Well-Known Member

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    No, you were just wrong.
     
  14. fullmetaljack

    fullmetaljack Well-Known Member

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    This is a lie. Dirty Donnie the Superspreader Swamp thing is the most anti American thing in the history of this country, Voting for Democrats is the most patriotic thing an American can do.
     
  15. Heartburn

    Heartburn Well-Known Member

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    And they're still digging into that one
     
  16. Cal-Pak

    Cal-Pak Active Member

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    former Speaker of the House Tip O'Neil
     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2020
  17. nobodyspecific

    nobodyspecific Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    NC is a purple state which leans red more often than not. It sometimes kicks out incumbents, but often does not.

    In 2012 Pat McCrory (R) won in a race with no incumbent by a wide margin (over 10%), whereas Romney won over Obama by a small margin (2%). In 2016, Pat McCrory was unseated by Roy Cooper by a very thin margin (0.2%), while Trump won the state by a larger margin (3%). In 2020, Roy Cooper won reelection by a much more comfortable margin (4%), while Trump won the state by a much smaller margin (1%).

    Roy Cooper won in 2016 by running as a single issue candidate. For the entire cycle he railed against HB2, or the bathroom bill as it was known in NC. While this turned out to be a winning strategy, it was just barely. In 2020, Cooper was viewed to have done a good job handling the COVID pandemic whereas his competitor Dan Forest has mostly just balked about reopening. See the poll from Oct of this year:


    roy_cooper_covid.png

    You can see how his approval ratings are highest with regard to handling the COVID pandemic, and go steadily downward for other issues. On that same link you can find where the state's concerns are highest by far on COVID:

    nc_covid_concerns.png

    That is ultimately what won the day. Despite how partisan we have become at the national level, there is still some room for ticket splitting in NC if local officials are believed to have done a good enough job by voters. You can see this phenomenon play out further down ballot by looking up the total results here: https://er.ncsbe.gov/?election_dt=11/03/2020&county_id=0&office=COS&contest=0

    Mark Robinson (R) won LT Gov (no incumbent - Dan Forest was the incumbent)
    Josh Stein (D) remained AG
    Beth Wood (D) remained Auditor
    Steve Troxler (R) remained Sec of Agg
     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2020

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