Republicans might have already lost 2024

I don't think he'll announce a run on Sunday. It's too early. Trump like polls. It's unlikely he will announce until after the 2022 mid-terms and I think (hope) that is where he is focused right now. We'll know more Sunday.

As far as 2024, Republicans have very good chances if either Biden or Harris are the competition. It doesn't really matter too much who the Republican nominee is, either America First or RINO, against either of those Democrats.

The 2016/2020 GOP voters would strongly prefer an America First candidate. Right now, Trump is the "favorite" if he runs, so the ball is in his court.

If a RINO wins the nomination, they can still beat Biden or Harris but most voters will be holding their noses, and the election will be much closer. Staunch Trump supporters will sit out and likely not vote.

If an America First candidate with an "easier" personality wins the nomination, the GOP could win in a landslide in 2024. The policies are very appealing. Trump's personality got in the way of the great message. We can thank him for energizing millions of apathetic voters who had dropped out of voting for years or decades prior to 2016. We can thank Trump for moving many people from Democrat voters to America First voters, including a great expansion in bringing more cultural diversity to the GOP tent.

If Trump runs and becomes the nominee, which is certain, he will win 2024. People are already starting to remember why Trump won in the first place after eight long years of DNC's and Obama's failed policies. A lot of people will have to nose to vote for Trump in 2024, just like they'll have to not breathe to vote for a RINO nominee. Trump's "problem" won't change. His personality is very chaotic and sometimes unsettling. It runs counter to elegant simplicity of the America First message to the working "middle" classes of Americans. Media runs very successful "cult of personality" propaganda against Donald Trump and prevents the public from looking at policy.

From what I've written, it should be obvious that my personal preference is for Trump to endorse an America First candidate, but not run as the nominee himself. I think the policy platform is the winning ticket regardless, but I think a calmer messenger will hand the GOP a landslide and a 2-Term GOP President.


Anyway, looking forward to the State of the GOP Union address this Sunday!

 

and it the purpose of those countries was to "sanitize" it, this still cannot be proven. Does the legislation say the words "we tossed in some other countries to shut you up about the muslim thing"?
FACTS DON'T CARE ABOUT FEELINGS

 

Sometimes you have to be astute enough to read between the lines.

 

I totally get it. Given that information its easy to assume its a muslim ban, just like its easy for me to assume the new proposed stimulus package is a white farmer ban.
I can't prove it, but when I'm reading between the lines, thats the message I get, although I can't prove it, I admit i would still refer to it that way just like you refer to the travel ban as a muslim ban. I get it 100%

 

Trump even called it a muslim ban

 

If Biden / Harris go up against Trump, Cruz or De Santis, they will easily be re-elected to a second term.

 

Trump if he wants could win the GOP nomination for 2024, but he would lose in the general. Independents who gave Trump the white house in 2016, took it away in 2020. They don't like Trump, it's that simple. The weird thing it isn't Trump's policies that they disliked, independents were for some, against some, indifferent to others, fairly split. It's Trump himself, basically his in your face personality which most independents viewed as unpresidential to say the least, below the dignity of someone who holds the office of the president. They plain don't like Trump as a person. History has shown usually folks don't vote for someone they dislike.

I think those of the republican persuasion should take a good hard look at the 2020 results. Trump lost by some 7 million plus votes. But the GOP picked up 13 house seats, 2 state legislatures and a governorship down ballot. There were a lot of ticket splitters who voted for Biden, against Trump, then Republican down ballot. Republican congressional candidates received more votes than Trump, a higher percentage.

Trump isn't about to win back independents. The longer Trump hangs around, the better it is for the Democrats. Remember the Republican Party is still the smaller of the two major parties, they must win the independent or lose the election. It's time for the GOP to move beyond Trump if they want to win elections. My two cents anyway.

 

This is mostly similar to my outlook, you just have way better vocabulary. Most of the Trump hate I've heard from people I'm around was NEVER a complaint about his policies.

 

The view that the Democrats are known for doing damage is popular among those who would never have voted for Biden in a million years, but not so much outside that group.

Dem support had been leaking away because they were losing voters who thought they didn't do enough to change things, not because they didn't like the changes. Biden certainly isn't the reformer that many want. When his support eventually drains, it will most likely be because of the dissatisfaction of people who thought he didn't try enough to change things.

 

Hey remember when Obama fired an Inspector General who was investigating one of his supporters?




Obama Axes AmeriCorps' Inspector General

Good times! Remember how much you loved this corruption?

 

I don't believe that to be the case. Dems will likely get much of their agenda through. Higher taxes, gun control, etc. California is a good example of the damage dems are known for. In spite of having the highest taxes, CA is the poverty capitol of the US. The gap between the rich and poor is huge and few are left in the middle. Second amendment rights are unrecognizable. Roads are crumbling in spite of additional taxes on top of taxes.

There is no shortage of trying and results speak for themselves. You are right that many will never consider results.

 

If not for whataboutisms would you have anything to post?

After complaints about the dismissal grew, the White House fired back on Wednesday, releasing a letter from a senior counsel to the president sharply criticizing Mr. Walpin’s record. The letter, sent to Senators Joseph I. Lieberman, a Connecticut independent, and Susan Collins, a Maine Republican, justified the dismissal on several grounds, including what it said was Mr. Walpin’s “confused, disoriented” behavior at a meeting of the agency’s board on May 20, when, according to the letter, he was unable to respond to questions.

The letter, from Norman L. Eisen, the special counsel to the president who handles ethics matters, also noted that a career federal prosecutor in Sacramento had filed an ethics complaint about Mr. Walpin’s actions in the case involving Mayor Johnson. And the Eisen letter said that Mr. Walpin chose to work in New York, not in Washington, over the board’s objections and that he “had become unduly disruptive to agency operations.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/18/us/politics/18americorps.html

Obama responded to inquiries about the firing (the single firing) with a detailed explanation as to why. Trump.............

Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley: Trump has failed to justify ouster of watchdogs, fueling political speculation
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...department-intelligence-watchdogs/5264939002/

You should know better than to bring that weak, false comparison garbage in to a discussion with me by now.

 

Under Trump's leadership the Republican Party is rapidly making itself irrelevant in general elections. Problem: They can't see beyond the primaries.

NBC News reports, "The nation's largest conference of conservative activists will prominently feature former President Donald Trump's false claims of voter fraud weeks after his stolen election lie fueled a riot that led to the deaths of five people.

"The agenda for the Conservative Political Action Conference, the influential right-wing summit best known as CPAC taking place in Florida this weekend, provides attendees multiple forums that appear to perpetuate conservative mythmaking around the 2020 election as well as ways to discuss the new wave of voting restrictions pushed by the Republican Party. The featured speaker is the former president himself on Sunday.

"The event includes seven speeches and panels about “protecting elections” over the long weekend, with 2020-specific themes like "Other Culprits: Why Judges & Media Refused to Look at the Evidence," and "The Left Pulled the Strings, Covered It Up, and Even Admits It."

This is surreal. It is difficult to accept that the GOP leadership could be so foolish.

 

There is no such thing as "whataboutism." It's simply your way to ignore your own hypocrisy. Now could you please explain President Obama's corrupt action, since you seem to think firing IG's are not the topic of this thread?

 

That's what most of the polls also showed. Not only election polls where they asked about the issues, but overall job approval polls also. Big disconnects there, polls showing Trump with a 55% approval on the economy, but only a 40-42% overall job approval. Usually those two numbers, polls are within, give or take a couple of points of each other. At least it has been since 1976 when these polls first started.

The one thing that didn't change since Trump first announced his intentions to run for the Republican nomination back in 2015 was the over dislike of him as a person. He was one lucky SOB to face Hillary Clinton in 2016 as she was as disliked as much as Trump. Biden, not so, he was liked as a person. People laugh at me when I bring being liked as a person up. They spout stances on issues and policy as being the main factor. But history has shown most folks won't vote for someone they dislike as a person regardless of the issues or policy. Hence around 4-5 million ticket splitters who voted Democratic for president, Biden, he was a very likable guy, against Trump, then voted Republican down ballot.

Had those ticket splitters voted for Trump, he'd probably have won reelection. I summed up the two elections thus. 2016 Obnoxious vs. Aloof and Elitist, Obnoxious won. 2020 Obnoxious vs. the old, bland, uninspiring candidate, old, bland and uninspiring won. Biden was the ultimate safe candidate going against Trump. He just had to stand there keeping basically quite, looking like an adult, presidential and let the dislike of Trump win it for him.

 

I'd like to see Ron DeSantis be our nominee for 2024. He's got the Trump bravado, taking on the media and the Democrats at large, instead of being the typical milquetoast, pussyfooting establishment Republican. Additionally, he's more articulate and polished when needed, which will definitely win over more of the independents.

 

Although I will say that Trump does energize the base.



And there's good evidence that had the media in coordination with Big Tech not covered up the Hunter Biden scandal, not to mention the making the electoral landscape ripe for fraud, Trump would still be in the White House till 2024.

 

I'd vote for Ron in a heart beat. Best manager/governor of the last year's craziness/propaganda, and I've read very good things about him. He has a very upper-crust education and is highly intelligent, yet he comes from a humble beginning and never talks "down" or belittles people. He's one of the few "smart" people who can still communicate and relate to the "masses" of ordinary people. He has empathy and can provide real solutions, not just rhetoric.

 

We can thank Trump for waking people up, energizing many of the formerly "asleep" Americans, and starting a great movement.

I just hope he can be happy with that and step aside to let someone more "agreeable" take over the AF agenda from here. No doubt, Trump is now a king maker in the GOP. He should just not necessarily be compelled to be the 2024 nominee.

 

Excellent. That's why you're one of the best posters here.
For the record, I'm for the second amendment and I'm a gun owner. But I also am for reasonable controls.

 

Spot on. And I'd add, if we repeated the election today, Trump would lose again, but by more than 7 million votes, because he squandered more support with his behavior after the election.

 

In my book, there's no coming back from scuttling the Georgia election.

 

What's your prediction for 2022?

The institutions in DC are committing "a top-down rebellion of the elites determined to protect the wealth and power of the establishment." This is why they banded together against Trump. They are actually banding together against constitutional government.

https://amgreatness.com/2021/02/23/the-last-stop-before-thermopylae/

I suspect we'll have a decent 2022, likely winning the House. 2024 is much too far away for speculation.

 

That he did. You're correct, Trump would lose by close to 10 million in my opinion if the election were held today. But one needs to remember 2024 is a long way off. There's plenty of water that has to run under that bridge. How things are today is no indication as to how things will be in 2024, they'll be completely different.

I do think 2024 is a time for fresh young faces from both parties.

 

Perotista, you always provide clear-headed analysis. I like your posts. Part of why you're so good at this, is that you demonstrate the ability to look at the big picture and to understand statistics.