Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

I do not believe that this is true, but in fairness to you, I will check it out first.

What I can say with 100% accuracy is that I am also seeing precipitous rises in +cases in places like Arizona, Kentucky and Utah, for instance and the last I recall, those are Republican led state governments.

And actually, some rises did begin around March 20th, but the average first started to show up 7 days later, close to the end of March and only about 7 days ago right now.
We are dealing with the UK strain, which is far more virulent but not more deadly than the original "wild" strain, so I am not sure that any type of state government can stop it.

Also, vaccinations all over the country are at an all time high and Biden is on track to keep his now doubled-promise of 200 million shots in arms within the first 100 days of his administration. How the individual states, like your home state of Colorado, handle the problem, is their thing, due to, as you well know, the 10th Amendment, an amendment that righties particularly like. Actually, in most cases, I find it to be fully ok, but when we are dealing with a pandemic, it's just nuts.

Again, I will check on this for you.

 

Thank you in advance, and I realize how frustrating such an undertaking can be. We have such a mixed picture of viral spread, which includes statistics that show we in Colorado have a rising number of cases, but California has seen a steep decrease. It will be very interesting to see what the 'spread' landscape looks like when everybody gets back home from "Spring Break"....

A couple of months ago, everyone was terrified about the South African strain, but now we hear nothing much about it. The new 'terror' seems to be the Brazilian strain, which is really surging across the large metro areas of Brazil, but, what we are still more worried about here in the States is the UK strain -- as you guys in Deutschland are experiencing.

Thus, the 'challenge' is not only one of the virus being "a moving target", but multiple moving targets....

 

I will agree that I am being "picky" in preferring the J&J vaccine, based on everything I have read (and I have read a LOT about all these vaccines). And it is strange that some Colorado counties have done a much better job of coordinating the entire testing and actual vaccination effort -- poor, little, often-maligned Pueblo County, the biggest Democrat stronghold outside the greater Denver/Boulder metro area being one.

By contrast, these processes in Republican-dominated counties (El Paso and Douglas Counties come to mind) haven't been nearly so 'energetic' or effective -- but in their defense, those counties claim they have been 'shorted' their fair share of the vaccines by the Democrat-dominated bureaucracies in (guess where?)... DENVER.

My 'J&J mantra' has been a play on the Ring Verse in "Lord of the Rings" --

"One shot to rule them all,
One 'jab' to find them,
One shot to bring them all,
and in the darkness bind them...."

 

In a sure sign that things have suddenly gone south in a terrible way in India, for the first time in its Covid-19 history, India has exceeded +100,000 C19 infections in one day.

Currently, the figure for 2021-04-004 is +103,793, but that figure is likely to change still some during this day.

 

Actually the SA strain is definitely out there, but got elbowed out by the UK strain. And there is no doubt that the UK strain is now the predominant strain in Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Poland, Ukraine, Byelorußland, Czechia, Moldova, Serbia, Croatia, Romania, Hungary, Austria, Switzerland and Italy. Interestingly enough, both Spain and Portugal are not suffering yet from the UL strain. And it should be noted that for some inexplicable reason, both Bulgaria and Greece has been spared most of the tragedy in all of this. However, right across from Greece, in Asia minor, Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Iran, are all showing major signs of a huge wave forming.

A good reason for why California is (thank G-d) experiencing a marked decreased in +cases and +deaths is the firm belief that Los Angeles and Los Angeles County have for all intents and purposes already reached herd immunity.

And yeah, that spring break nonsense sets a new record in "the stupid", if you ask me.

I find your last statement to be spot-on: indeed, multiple moving targets. We are in a race to get to a form of herd immunity before an even more dangerous mutation can take the stage and render the current vaccinations useless. We are also in a race to get the world vaccinated before it's time to start the 80-90 year old group for the next set of vaccinations in 2022 because since it is a coronavirus, it is going to be around for years.

 

As usual, you ignore the savings accounts of those Europeans whose savings accounts are NOT "at all time highs", eg, low paid hospitality and tourism workers whose jobs were hardest hit by the pandemic. Just because some billionaires and others increased their wealth during the pandemic, does not mean poverty has not increased substantially in the EU....while governments have opened their economies too soon with disastrous consequences for covid fatality numbers, BECAUSE they are still following your obsolete Friedman/Reagan neoliberal, balanced- government-budget ideology just as is Bolsonaro.

The EU is doomed unless the ECB ditches its balanced budget rules which restrict the sensible development of the 27 nation states...as Biden appears to be prepared to do in the US with his new "Bidenomics", in order to replace the failed Reaganomics which has left US infrastructure at 3rd world standards, and which will need massive covid based government deficits to be 'paid for' other than by taxpayers.

Reclaiming the State by William Mitchell, Thomas Fazi - 9780745337326 - Dymocks

"A provocative economic analysis which reconceptualises the nation state as a vehicle for progressive change."

 

UPDATED PERMANENT DISCLAIMER AS OF 2020-11-009
Chronological online PF C-19 analysis Library-links: 2020 / 2021
Screenshot overflow-links: 2020 / 2021-01, 2021-02, 2021-03, 2021-04,
ONE YEAR LOOKBACK TO 2020-04-004

Concise COVID-19 analysis: Sunday, 2021-04-004
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)
*EASTER SUNDAY 2021*
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations circa 5,000,000 COVID-19 cases upwards
​

-Weekdays: just barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top nations, according to THESE STANDARDS.​

-End of Month (EOM): very large analyses, which you can interpret for yourselves.
-Whatever is not screenshotted during the week, you can always see for yourself at the online-excel-document (see: sig-file).

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 41 NATIONS
Currently, the figures for worldwide and three of the 41 tracked nations are published here as screenshots on a daily basis.

WORLDWIDE:
Ώ֍֍֍* 131,905,967 *֍֍֍Ώ
+555,657 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 591,821 = 411 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+6,831 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 9,992 = 6.9 deaths every minute, tendency: steady
INDIA ACCRUED MORE THAN +100,000 DAILY CASES FOR THE 1st TIME IN ITS COVID-19 HISTORY
FRANCE IS NOW -3,322 UNDER 100,000 TOTAL C19 DEATHS
SLOVAKIA EXCEEDED 10,000 TOTAL C19 DEATHS ON THIS DAY, 37th NATION TO DO SO
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BRAZIL'S C-19 TOTAL TESTS PERFORMED HAS NOT BUDGED IN 102 DAYS
​

The first screenshot of the Worldwide figures (above) represents all 41 nations now being tracked daily by me. See: online excel-table
For additional screenshots of the worldwide figures, please use the screenshot overflow link for the month in question (top of analysis)

USA:
֍֍֍* 31,420,331 *֍֍֍
THE USA JUST HAD ITS LOWEST +CASES STATISTIC SINCE 2020-09-020
+37,205 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 65,361 = 45.4 new cases every minute, tendency: slightly falling
+264 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 893 = 0.6 deaths every minute, tendency: steady
​

BRAZIL:
֍** 12,984,956 **֍
BRAZIL WILL EXCEED 13 MILLION TOTAL C19 CASES TODAY, 2021-04-005
+31,359 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 64,324 = 44.7 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+1,233 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 2,747 = 1.9 deaths every minute, tendency: slightly falling
The positivity rate in Brazil is a ridiculous 45.40%, stuck now at a total of 28,600,000 tests for 102 consecutive days
​

INDIA:
֍** 12,587,920 **֍
INDIA ACCRUED MORE THAN +100,000 DAILY CASES FOR THE 1st TIME IN ITS COVID-19 HISTORY
+103,793 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 78,387 = 54.4 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+477 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 464 = 0.3 deaths every minute, tendency: slightly rising​

​

 

I wanted to write some extra points aside from the concise analysis for Easter Sunday. You may find this to be very, very interesting.

First, the leap-frogging is continuing, a sure sign of a wave that is growing in some places, but not in others.

In the last days, Serbia, Bangladesh and Jordan have leapfrogged back and forth over each other, with Serbia eventually falling behind and now Bangladesh and Jordan are dancing the Texas 2-step with each other.

Belgium just went over 900,000 cases, joining Romania in the 900,000 category. That may not seem like a lot, but at current, Belgium's positivity rate (7.89%) is darned near identical to the positivity rate in the USA (7.67%), only Belgium has 11.7 million residents, whereas the USA has 332.5 million residents, a ratio of 28.4 to 1. 900,000 * 28.4 would = 25.6 millon total cases in Belgium were it to have the same population as the USA. At a current rolling 7-day average of +4,320 cases per day, then Belgium will cross over the 1,000,000 mark in 23 days, on 2021-04-028. However, Romania, which is averaging +5,394 cases per day and is only 25,000 away from the 1,000,000 marker, will get their first (in fact, it will get there by the end of this week), making these two nations the 24th and 25th nations to be in the 7-digit-zone in total cases.

Both Peru and Czechia have slid past South Africa, but their trajectories are totally different from each other. For months on end, I was mentioning that Peru was moving at a snail's pace and wouldn't it be nice if the rest of the world were doing as well as Peru. And then, last month, *boom*, Peru took off like a rocket. What a shame. The 10 weeks before, Czechia had really picked up the pace but between 2021-03-019 and 2021-04-004, it's 7-day rolling average has been cut in half.

That being said, the real story here is South Africa, which appears to be having verifiable success in tampening the virus down, and here is where we need to get down deep into the statistical weeds to see what is going on. @Derideo_Te . For 4 of the last 8 days, South Africa's daily +cases were under +1,000 and for the first time since I began tracking this nation on 2020-11-001, it's 7-day rolling +case average is under +1,000 and is now 10-fold less than what it was on 2021-01-026, a little less than 10 weeks ago. Likewise, the 7-day rolling average in daily deaths is now down to just under +50 per day, compared to an average of +501 on 2021-01-026, so within an identical time frame, we can see that the pace of C19 in South Africa is only 1/10 of what it was near the end of January, 2021. Something is working in South Africa and I think this is an important piece of information, especially in light of the fact that the South Africa mutation of C19 is supposed to be more virulent and more dangerous. Deri, can you shed some light on this?

Poland jumped over Mexico last week, then it jumped over Argentina and by tomorrow, it will be firmly ahead of Colombia and behind Germany. Where things are going well in South Africa, something is seriously wrong with Poland. Using the same time frame (2021-01-026 to 2021-04-003), Poland has gone from a 7-day rolling average of +5,560 daily cases and +268 deaths on 2021-01-026 to +26,793 daily case and +437 daily deaths on 2021-04-003. That's an almost 5-fold jump in average daily cases and a 1.6 : 1 ratio in average daily deaths. As of today, 2021-04-005, Poland now has 2,448,463 total C19 cases. At this rate, Poland will jump over 3,000,000 cases in 22 days, on 2021-04-027.

Turkey has leapfrogged over Spain and is now averaging +43,991 C19 cases and +191 deaths per day. Using the same time frame, it was at +6,081 cases and +145 average deaths per day on 2021-01-026, so the average daily cases have exploded 7-fold in the same time frame as for Poland and South Africa. Italy, however, is "only" averaging +19,459 cases and +442 deaths per day, so it is only a matter of time before Turkey, a nation with a far larger population than Italy, will surpass Italy.

And the most disturbing news in all of this is India (over which Brazil leapfrogged a while back, but at this rate, India will likely overtake Brazil once again in a repeat of the month of August, 2020), which just had more than +100,000 fresh infections in just one day.

There is also one country not in my 41-nation tracking that is very often picking up more than +1,000 cases a day and that country is Kazakhstan, an arid, mostly rural country of 18.9 million people. Kazakstan is a former Soviet satellite state and borders Russia, China and some other "stans". At 2.7 million sq kilometer, Kazakstan is the 9th largest country on earth, one with a huge amount of raw commodities and is and roughly as large as or slightly larger than all of Europe (excluding Russia but including Ukraine and White Russia, also known as Byelorus). Here, for perspective:



Europe: 400,000,000 people. Kazakhstand: 18,900,000 people. Kazakhstan has only 1 city with over 1,000,000 residents (Almaty) and the 4th largest city is already under 500,000 in population.

Here the Covid-19 stats for this nation:





The first graphic is +cases, the second graphic is +deaths.

Today, Kazakhstan clocked in at just around +2,000 cases (and on 2021-03-030 it spiked at a shocking +7,000). Even if you cannot read German, I am sure so can see the long history of over +1,000 daily cases and now, the sudden jump to +2,000 cases just in the last week. You can also see the precipitous drop-off in daily deaths as of 2021-02-011

Currently, Kazakhstan is "only" at about 255,000 total cases and 3,110 deaths, so it will be a long time before this nation reaches 1,000,000 cases. It is currently rank 56 in the C19 rankings, but that may change very soon. I wrote a couple of time in the last weeks that the movement under the surface tells us a lot about how a wave is forming. And although I am not tracking this nation (yet), just with the naked eye and without exact minutae, we can see that something is happening here, something not good. Also, it should be noted that Kazakstan started mass immunizations with Russia's Sputnik V vaccine right at the beginning of February and then had it's own facilities to make the vaccine within the country as of the middle of February and yet, the +case numbers are still rising. Fortunately, deaths indeed are going down.

The odd-man-out in all of this is currently the USA, which is not contributing to the newest wave happening across the world. On 2021-04-004, the USA's +37,205 new cases and +264 deaths represented only 6.7% of the worldwide daily cases and 3.9% of the worldwide daily deaths for that day. Of course, the fact that it was Easter Sunday plays a role in this, but still, the world had a huge amount of +cases to report on Christendom's holiest day. Also, in the past, the +cases in the USA were sometimes 30% of the worldwide total, etc.

I thought that this extra information would be of interest to our PF membership.

-Stat

 

Thank you for all of the hard work, Stat.

I have not been reading this thread recently since I was diagnosed with cataracts and require surgery on both eyes. This makes reading numbers and looking for trends exceptionally difficult. Hopefully the surgery and then a pair of decent reading glasses will eliminate the eye strain headaches and I can resume making contributions to this worthy thread.

Take care and stay safe.

 

Dear Deri,

get well soon, you are missed!

 

On Friday, 2021-04-002 and Saturday, 2021-04-003, there were 3,975,000 and 4,082,000 vaccine doses administered, respectively. This means that 8 million shots went into US-American arms during the Easter weekend.

Tracking the covid vaccine: Doses, people vaccinated by state - Washington Post

Those two days are *technically speaking* the 2nd and 3rd highest days thus far. The highest day, busting all records, was 2021-03-013, with 4,576,000 shots alone on that day. However, there is a caveat about that, which you can read in this graphic:



So, in reality, Saturday, 2021-04-003 was a record settern.

This is good news all around. Right now, at least 106.3 million people have received 1 or 2 doses of a vaccine.

Imagine how much better off we could all be if the USA is hitting 5 million shots in arms per day. Were this to happen, we could literally have the ENTIRE adult population of the USA completely immunized by the end of May, 2021.

Again, the same link as above:

Tracking the covid vaccine: Doses, people vaccinated by state - Washington Post

 

My comment might irritate you, but don't get me wrong: I admire your work and your dedication. Simply, I can't refrain from thinking that this post looks like you were reporting live on a steeple-chase race.

On another topic, do you happen to have the latest on death cases following Astrazeneca vaccinations vs total number of doses administered?

 

Thanks Stat.

Given your prompting I watched some videos on the situation in South Africa and this one gives a fairly good idea of the challenge that they are facing.

https://www.news24.com/health24/med...ople-south-africa-should-vaccinate-20210401-2

In essence there is good news and bad news. The good news is that South Africa is building a facility to manufacture their own vaccines under license while the bad news is that they are still in trials and have not yet started a nationwide vaccination program. When they do get started they are going to face additional hurdles reaching herd immunity as explained in the video regarding the efficacy of the vaccines and the variant that is now in circulation.

This pandemic is far from over and if this is what one of the better healthcare systems in Africa is dealing with the rest of continent could still be infected well into 2022. Bearing in mind that the virus doesn't care about borders and that international shipping is ongoing the crew of a tanker loading oil in Nigeria that could be delivered to any port in the world means that there is the potential for the pandemic to spread out among those who have not been vaccinated elsewhere.

Even those who have been vaccinated against the virus could be infected by a different variant because we do have evidence of these occurring. This same principle applies to all of the less developed nations in Asia and South America so this is not limited to just one part of the world.

It is unfortunate that we have so little data from these nations but it is in the best interests of the western nations to ensure that everyone on the planet has access to vaccinations if they want this pandemic to end sooner rather than later.

 

UPDATED PERMANENT DISCLAIMER AS OF 2020-11-009
Chronological online PF C-19 analysis Library-links: 2020 / 2021
Screenshot overflow-links: 2020 / 2021-01, 2021-02, 2021-03, 2021-04,
ONE YEAR LOOKBACK TO 2020-04-005

Concise COVID-19 analysis: Monday, 2021-04-005
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations circa 5,000,000 COVID-19 cases upwards
​

-Weekdays: just barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top nations, according to THESE STANDARDS.​

-End of Month (EOM): very large analyses, which you can interpret for yourselves.
-Whatever is not screenshotted during the week, you can always see for yourself at the online-excel-document (see: sig-file).

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 41 NATIONS
Currently, the figures for worldwide and three of the 41 tracked nations are published here as screenshots on a daily basis.

WORLDWIDE:
Ώ֍֍֍** 132,410,526 **֍֍֍Ώ
+504,559 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 594,846 = 413.1 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+7,585 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 9,903 = 6.7 deaths every minute, tendency: slightly falling
BRAZIL EXCEEDED 13 MILLION TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ON THIS DAY
NORWAY IS ON THE CUSP OF 100,000 C19 CASES, WILL BE THE 88th NATION TO PASS THAT MARKER
FRANCE IS NOW -3,125 UNDER 100,000 TOTAL C19 DEATHS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BRAZIL'S C-19 TOTAL TESTS PERFORMED HAS NOT BUDGED IN 103 DAYS
​

The first screenshot of the Worldwide figures (above) represents all 41 nations now being tracked daily by me. See: online excel-table
For additional screenshots of the worldwide figures, please use the screenshot overflow link for the month in question (top of analysis)

USA:
֍֍֍* 31,496,976 *֍֍֍
+76,645 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 66,168 = 46 new cases every minute, tendency: slightly rising
+505 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 868 = 0.6 deaths every minute, tendency: steady
​

BRAZIL:
֍*** 13,023,189 ***֍
BRAZIL EXCEEDED 13 MILLION TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ON THIS DAY
+38,233 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 63,691 = 44.2 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+1,623 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 2,698 = 1.9 deaths every minute, tendency: slightly falling
The positivity rate in Brazil is a ridiculous 45.54%, stuck now at a total of 28,600,000 tests for 103 consecutive days
​

INDIA:
֍** 12,684,477 **֍
+96,557 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 84,164 = 58.4 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+445 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 490 = 0.3 deaths every minute, tendency: slightly rising​

​

 

It's not intended to come across as a steeple chase. I could write more, but there's no time for such malarkey.

As for the Astrazeneca question, I was even considering opening another thread about vaccinations, but too many nations are being so inconsistent in their reporting, there is absolutely no way to build any kind of reliable worldwide picture of this without a massive skew in the numbers. Some nations are only reporting the total number of vaccinations without categorizing them according to type, some report totals plus daily doses in arms, but not much more, including whether it's a first or second dosis for vaccines that require 2 shots. Some report everything, but since not all do this, it skews any kind of statistic, making the point moot. So, I ditched the idea. At the very beginning of this thread, from middle March, 2020, I indicated that one can only make a statistic out of the numbers that are presented, but enough must be first presented in order for this to make any sense.

 

Parts of India are going on strict lockdown:

-Maharashtra (the largest province and also the financial center of the country)
-New Delhi

I suspect that by the end of this week, all of India will go on lockdown.

 

I fully understand. Nevertheless, I appreciate your taking the time to answer my question.

Thanks again for your good work here.

 

Yesterday, India just went over +100,000 fresh C19 cases in one day.
Today, thus far, it has blown well past +100,000, currently at +115,000.

The can be no doubt about it: an even large wave is hitting India than was the case last summer and fall.

 

UPDATED PERMANENT DISCLAIMER AS OF 2020-11-009
Chronological online PF C-19 analysis Library-links: 2020 / 2021
Screenshot overflow-links: 2020 / 2021-01, 2021-02, 2021-03, 2021-04,
ONE YEAR LOOKBACK TO 2020-04-006

Concise COVID-19 analysis: Tuesday, 2021-04-006
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations circa 5,000,000 COVID-19 cases upwards
​

-Weekdays: just barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top nations, according to THESE STANDARDS.​

-End of Month (EOM): very large analyses, which you can interpret for yourselves.
-Whatever is not screenshotted during the week, you can always see for yourself at the online-excel-document (see: sig-file).

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 41 NATIONS
Currently, the figures for worldwide and three of the 41 tracked nations are published here as screenshots on a daily basis.

WORLDWIDE:
Ώ֍֍֍*** 133,015,438 ***֍֍֍Ώ
+604,912 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 603,686 = 419.2 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
THIS IS THE 1st DAY SINCE 2021-01-026 ON WHICH THE 7-DAY AVERAGE WENT OVER +600,000...
+12,028 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 10,056 = 7 deaths every minute, tendency: rising
INDIA WENT OVER +100,000 DAILY CASES FOR THE 2nd TIME IN 3 DAYS
NORWAY EXCEEDED 100,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ON THIS DAY, 88th NATION TO DO SO
FRANCE IS NOW -2,727 UNDER 100,000 TOTAL C19 DEATHS
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ITS C-19 HISTORY, BRAZIL EXCEEDED +4,000 DAILY DEATHS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BRAZIL'S C-19 TOTAL TESTS PERFORMED HAS NOT BUDGED IN 104 DAYS
​

This time I have included 3 of 4 Worldwide screenshots, just to show how long the list of nations over 100,000 total confirmed Covid-19 cases is:




The first screenshot of the Worldwide figures (above) represents all 41 nations now being tracked daily by me. See: online excel-table
For additional screenshots of the worldwide figures, please use the screenshot overflow link for the month in question (top of analysis)

USA:
֍֍֍* 31,560,438 *֍֍֍
+63,462 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 66,183 = 46 new cases every minute, tendency: steady
+978 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 875 = 0.6 deaths every minute, tendency: steady
​

BRAZIL:
֍*** 13,106,058 ***֍
+82,869 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 63,143 = 43.8 new cases every minute, tendency: slightly falling
+4,211 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 2,775 = 1.9 deaths every minute, tendency: slightly falling
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ITS C-19 HISTORY, BRAZIL EXCEEDED +4,000 DAILY DEATHS
The positivity rate in Brazil is a ridiculous 45.83%, stuck now at a total of 28,600,000 tests for 104 consecutive days
​

INDIA:
֍** 12,799,746 **֍
INDIA WENT OVER +100,000 CASES FOR THE 2nd TIME IN 3 DAYS
+115,266 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 93,037 = 64.6 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+631 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 529 = 0.4 deaths every minute, tendency: slightly rising
​

 

Wish I could have helped more. You are always welcome here, hope to see you more often. Sorry I couldn't respond more quickly, I had a lot of work yesterday.

-Stat

 

EMA to meet today about the blood clot cases, with 7 deaths, possibly caused by the AZ vaccines.

I can't see how 7 deaths on 20 million doses administered worldwide could justify even a restriction of that vaccine use. I'm told that many medicines used daily have a much worse record.

 

Things are not going well in Turkey.

Today, for the first time in Turkey's C19 history, it recorded more than +50,000 fresh C19 infections.

Also, the 7 day rolling average in daily deaths doubled from +99 per day on 2021-03-023 to +200 per day as of today. That's a sharp rise in average daily deaths.

In the same time frame, the 7-day rolling average in daily +cases has also slightly more than doubled, from +21,411 on 2021-03-023 to +45,249 today.

Turkey has a real problem on it's hands.

I scoured through the Turkish press and it is apparent that a number of strains are on the loose in Turkey, including the so-called "double mutant" strain(s) out of India.

 

The bolded: I concur with you. With every vaccine, some adverse reactions in a miniscule portion of the vaccinated population is to be expected, because no two human bodies are genetically identical nor do they have absolutely identical medical histories.

What WOULD interest me would be to know the blood group of those 7 who ended up with blood-clots, to see if there is a commonality, here.

 

The horror-scenario I had been hoping for months now would never happened has now arrived at India's door.

Four days ago, India went over +100,000 cases for the first time in it's C19 history.

Yesterday, India topped +315,000 fresh infections.

Thus far today, India is currently at +126,248 new C19 cases.

There is a real possibillity that very soon, India could be soaring over +300,000 cases per day, drastically outpacing the USA even during the height of it's worst wave (the Fall/Winter wave).

India has a population only slightly smaller than China's.

 

The problem with saying that 7 deaths in 20 million doses is that most of the 20 million were older people who are not in the group effected by blood clots. The real comparison should be the ages of the 7 people compared to number of doses administered to the same age group and then compare those stats with the risk of death from the virus

There is new UK guidance just released that under 30's should be offered an alternative to AZ vaccine