This is how crazy the pause of J&J vaccine due to blood clots is

Discussion in 'Coronavirus Pandemic Discussions' started by CenterField, Apr 13, 2021.

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  1. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    OK, so the CDC has paused J&J vaccination in the United states due to 6 cases of blood clots among 6.8 million people who received the vaccine.

    Incidence of this complication with the J&J vaccine: 1 case in each 1,133,333 vaccinated people. 1 person of these 6 died, that is, 1 in 6,800,000 people.

    Incidence of blood clots in the general population: 1 in 1,000.

    Incidence of blood clots from birth control pills (which aren't being paused): varies from 1 in 333 people to 1 in 100 people.

    Incidence of blood clots overall for all Covid-19 patients, the disease the J&J shots intend to prevent: 21% or a little more than 1 in 5.

    So, in order to prevent a problem that happens in 1 in each 1,133,333 people, we're exposing them to the very same problem, but this time, happening in 1 out of 5 people.

    And we don't get any measure against the same problem happening spontaneously in 1 in 1,000 people, or in birth control in 1 in 333 to 1 in 100 people.

    And by doing this pause, we'll be preventing 1 death in 6,800,000 people... while the virus kills between 1 in 50 and 1 in 100 people.

    Great. Just great. Makes all the sense in the world. [Insert deep sarcasm here]

    Talk about penny-wise and pound-foolish.

    This is how crazy and how emotional anything having to do with vaccines gets to be. People - and even health officials - tend to overreact to any complication.

    Rate of complication of 1 in 1,133,333 people is MUCH safer than what happens for pretty much ALL medicines known to men (they all have complications that usually count in the 1 in 100 range or more, not 1 in 1,333,333). But if it's a vaccine, OMG THE SKY IS FALLING!!!

    And no, I have no J&J stock and I'm not paid by them in any way, shape, or form. Why am I posting this? Because this nonsense drives me crazy. Instead of reassuring the population that this side effect is EXTREMELY rare and the benefits CLEARLY outweigh the risks, officials make people worried about it by pausing the vaccination (they want to investigate? By all means, do it, but don't pause the vaccination, dammit!) and less likely to accept the vaccines, which will result in... more people dying. It's as simple as that. But it still happens. Crazy.
     
  2. Darth Gravus

    Darth Gravus Banned

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    This is problematic as the J&J is the only one people with certain autoimmune issues can safely receive. My sister had to look long and hard to find the J&J and had an Appt to get it, and now she will not be able to.
     
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  3. MJ Davies

    MJ Davies Well-Known Member

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    I was hoping you would chime in on this issue. It does seem odd given the probabilities of each scenario.

    J&J has come out the gate all wrong.

    - couldn't deliver the dosages promised
    - empty vaccinations
    - recall (15M)

    and now this.
     
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  4. wgabrie

    wgabrie Well-Known Member Donor

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    Blood clots in a vaccine that everyone has to take? No way that's fair! Maybe the J&J problems were a blessing in disguise. Many people won't get blood clots now.
     
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2021
  5. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    From what I understand this reaction is not dissimilar to HITS - Heparin induced Thrombocytopenia and although we have swapped to low molecular weight heparin for some things..............
     
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  6. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You didn't really understand, did you? Many MORE people will get blood clots now, since Covid-19 (which the vaccine avoids) causes them in 1 in 5 people, while the vaccine causes them in 1 in 1,133,333 people. It's the very opposite of what you're saying.

    And who says everyone has to take the vaccine? It is not mandatory, you know?

    And by the way, the Pfizer and the Moderna vaccines do not have this problem. But I'm sure the anti-vaxxers will capitalize on this and make people mistrust ALL Covid-19 vaccines.

    Like I said, it's crazy. Why do people want others not to be vaccinated, and catch this horrible disease? It's sadistic.
     
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2021
  7. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Terrible. Very sorry for your sister. Hopefully the officials will come to their senses and cancel the pause.
     
  8. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I've posted this before but it's always good to repost if the people reading this thread haven't seen it yet. It talks about the nonsense that is being said against the vaccines...



    "It's not needle pricks to be scared about
    It's the ones who put this nonsense out
    It's absurd and it's mistaken. Have the new jab."
     
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  9. wgabrie

    wgabrie Well-Known Member Donor

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    Oh, I didn't know that Covid-19 caused blood clots, and at a much higher rate as well.

    When I said everyone I meant across all different demographic groups in the population like J&J was the vaccine of choice if everyone took it. Not that it's mandatory.

    Finally, you mustn't confuse criticism of vaccines with anti-vaxxers.
     
  10. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Well, didn't you see this phrase in my original post?
    "Incidence of blood clots overall for all Covid-19 patients, the disease the J&J shots intend to prevent: 21% or a little more than 1 in 5."
    It's the whole POINT of the OP!!!
    And am I saying that all people who criticize a vaccine are anti-vaxxers? Please kindly point to where I said so. Please do NOT put words in my mouth. Thank you.
    I just said that anti-vaxxers will capitalize on this.
     
  11. wgabrie

    wgabrie Well-Known Member Donor

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    Oh, I missed your point, well I went off on a research tangent about finding the rate that women take birth control pills. I thought the high rate of blood clots, from birth control pills, might be due to a minority of the overall population being extra likely to get blood clots.

    I was going to argue a point, but in my research, I found the facts were completely opposite to my impressions. Almost Two-Thirds of Women in the U.S. Use Some Form of Birth Control | SELF

    So, anyway, I went into edit mode and skipped the last part of the OP before posting.
     
  12. Melb_muser

    Melb_muser Well-Known Member Donor

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    In my opinion this is what happens when ignorant politicians hoof in on medical matters and override science with knee-jerk populism.

    We had a modest, if incompetently executed Covid rollout underway in Australia, now Astro-zenica is not recommended for under-50s due to 2 cases of blood clotting, J&J looks to be following a similar fate. Actually we appear to be not buying J&J at all, despite the fact that we are struggling to get vaccine doses into the country.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society...covid-vaccine-due-to-astrazeneca-similarities

    https://www.theguardian.com/austral...-doses-given-blood-clot-warning-for-under-50s
     
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  13. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I don't really see it this way. They always said they didn't have too many doses before approval, but if approved, they promised to deliver 100 million by the end of June and were on track to do that.
    Empty vaccinations - an error at a pharmacy administering the shots, not a J&J error.
    15M spoiled doses - an error at an independent (third party) factory that mixed AstraZeneca and J&J ingredients by mistake, not a J&J error.
    Now, this: again, not the fault of J&J but rather, of over-zealous governmental officials.
     
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  14. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Officials in the US have said that the pause may be over in a matter of days (but regardless of the findings, the damage to the vaccine's reputation is irreversible). They are trying to justify it by saying they paused so that it is made sure that all doctors know how to treat this complication if it arises - which would make sense if we weren't in the middle of a pandemic.

    I guess what makes a bit of sense is the fact that the treatment of CSVT (the kind of blood clot that is occurring in association with the J&J and AstraZeneca vaccines) recommended by the CDC differs slightly from the German recommendations.
     
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2021
  15. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yes, precisely, it is similar to HIT.

    Greinacher and colleagues wrote in their NEJM paper that the disorder "resembles" severe HIT, but "unlike the usual situation" none of these patients received heparin in the past. They noted that autoimmune or spontaneous HIT can occur without exposure to heparin, and is characterized by "unusually severe thrombocytopenia, increased rates of DIC and atypical clots." They concluded that the AstraZeneca vaccine can result in a rare syndrome that "clinically mimics autoimmune heparin-induced thrombocytopenia," and propose using the term "vaccine induced immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia" (VITT) to avoid confusion.

    In a past publication, Greinacher and colleagues had referred to this syndrome as vaccine-induced prothrombotic immune thrombocytopenia (VIPIT).

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2104840

    https://www.thieme-connect.com/products/ejournals/html/10.1055/a-1469-7481

    The second link contains all the diagnostic tests and proposed management for this complication.

    Scientists from Norway have also published on this topic:

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2104882
     
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2021
  16. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    By the way, 1 in 567 smokers get blood clots. Should smoking be banned? As a matter of fact, that would be good for public health for other reasons... but my point is, smoking is perfectly tolerated as a legal drug while they pause this vaccine, which causes the problem in 1 in 1,133,333 people, that is, smoking is 1,998 times worse.

    Anyway, it was a TERRIBLE time for the FDA and CDC to do this (I blamed the CDC in my OP but it was actually a joint statement by the two agencies), in a moment when public trust in the vaccine should not be undermined.

    Again, they should have continued to investigate, continued to fine-tune treatment recommendations, but should have emphasized to the population that this is an EXTREMELY RARE side effect and the vaccine is life-saving (and clot-complications saving, given that Covid-19 itself can and does cause blood clots much more often than the vaccine) in MUCH higher proportions.

    And it's not like treatment for CVST is not known, as evidenced by the New England Journal of Medicine papers on recommended treatments, linked to in post #15.

    -----------

    Even if you consider just CVST and not any blood clots, birth control pills still have an incidence of CVST in 1 in 833 women taking them. That is, the problem is 1,360 times bigger for birth control pills than for this vaccine... and nobody is pausing birth control pills.

    There are other medications that can cause CVST as well; rarely, but much more frequently than this vaccine. Testosterone supplements. Warfarin. Heparin. Even aspirin and ibuprofen.

    And the incidence of CVST in the general population is 1 in 200,000; again, worse than the incidence of cases caused by the vaccine.
     
  17. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    unless they get covid, which is well known to cause blood clots
     
  18. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yep, a point I made already in the Original Post.
    -------
    By the way, to make this thread more complete, it is true that the AstraZeneca vaccine is causing this problem more often: 1 in 250,000 doses. At this point I don't favor the FDA approval
    of the AstraZeneca vaccine (not that its benefits don't still outweigh the risks, but we do have better alternatives here and we don't need the AZ vaccine). But the J&J? No. Pausing it was a grave mistake, in my opinion, even if it ends up being for just a few days. One, because even if it's a few days, some people will die from not having had the vaccine (and survivors will develop blood clots too... in bigger numbers). Two, because it undermines public trust in the vaccines in a moment when we can't afford vaccine hesitancy or refusal.
     
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2021
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  19. Melb_muser

    Melb_muser Well-Known Member Donor

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    Actually, it appears that it was medical experts that have reset the distribution of AstraZeneca so that it is now preferred only for those over 50 - based on the calculation that the chance of catching COVID-19 in Australia is zero vs. 1 in 200,000 chance of getting a blood clot from the vaccine. Should Covid take off in our community than they would recommend the vaccine.
     
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2021
  20. sec

    sec Well-Known Member

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    why does it surprise you about the over-reaction? The draconian and useless measures that govt imposed to "eradicate covid" were also over-reactions. Did you expect anything different from incompetent govt officials?

    BE careful for whom you wave your pom poms because sometimes they really are on the opposite team.

    I welcome you to the realization that the best/brightest and those with common sense are not politicians nor do they seek govt jobs.
     
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  21. Pants

    Pants Well-Known Member

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    I, too, thought it was rather crazy to stop administering a vaccine that affects less than 1 in one million people, but in listening to the surgeon general last night I understand that it isn't just about the blood clots - it is the fact that it seems those 6 people also had very low platelets. I'm not a medical expert but I understand this to be a very odd combination. So they are putting a stop to J&J temporarily to investigate.
     
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  22. MJ Davies

    MJ Davies Well-Known Member

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    I hope this doesn't come out sounding mean but sometimes it seems that you negate the fact that other posters aren't doctors or scientists. What I mean is we, the average lay person, are getting information from the news, our doctors and the people we know who've either had COVID and/or had the vaccine. We are not privy to all the scientific studies and don't have experience on the frontline of medical care the way you do and are.

    I appreciate reading your insight on these matters and this isn't a complaint. It's just a gentle reminder that most of us are doing the best we can to make sense of all the information coming at us from all directions without the benefit of being on the inside.
     
  23. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    ... and the Pfizer and Moderna jabs have about four times the reported cases of adverse reactions on the VAERS database than the J&J jab, and about ten times the reported cases of deaths, yet those two jabs get to continue onward... Smells like there's some ties between the CDC and Pfizer...
     
  24. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You know, the funny thing is that I've been berated by some posters, for trying to simplify and for making what I'm saying accessible to a lay person. Sometimes I quote a lay journalist's article (when it is on target; most aren't) instead of quoting an original (and complex) scientific paper because I think the paper will fly over most people's heads. And then when I did that, I was berated for not quoting the scientific source. When I do quote the scientific sources, sometimes I'm berated for getting too complex and for linking to stuff nobody will read or if they will, they won't understand. So, see, one can't win...

    I think I try my best to give the scientific standpoint while adding analogies and plain-language explanations and easy-to-understand comparisons such as 1 in 5, 1 in 1,000, 1 in 1,000,000 etc.

    I also try to adapt my response to what I perceive (maybe not always accurately) regarding what the person I'm responding to, will understand. A great example in this thread is my response to Bowerbird in post #15 above. I bet a lay person won't understand what HIT is or what vaccine-induced immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia is, but Bowerbird who is a knowledgeable healthcare professional will. So I can respond to her in these terms and I can quote to her very complex and specialized papers like the three I linked to in that post. Responding to a lay person with links to those papers won't do much good.

    I mean, I try.
     
  25. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    Covid-19 supposedly causes damn near anything and everything under the sun, and most any death nowadays is "due to covid". It's just fear mongering.

    Bingo. This is just a leftist's hate-induced bigotry being put on display, and is an attempt to shut down intelligent discussion. "Conspiracy theorist" and "science denier" are other common labels that come up.
     
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2021

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