U.S. rejects Poland's offer to give it Russian-made fighter jets for Ukraine

Discussion in 'Latest US & World News' started by Same Issues, Mar 9, 2022.

  1. ShadowX

    ShadowX Well-Known Member

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    But he’s made a calculation. He KNOWS nato will not interfere militarily if he takes ANY non-nato country near him. He can reclaim a massive swath of old Soviet era territory (and more even) with essentially zero risk that the west will get involved. If he does so and redraws his borders, his economy grows IMMENSELY and so do his resources and manpower. And while a minority of the Russian people might be upset now. Let Putin successfully take 3 or 4 countries and grow their economy with China and they will be happy to go along.
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2022
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  2. Same Issues

    Same Issues Well-Known Member

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    Its hard to argue with opinion. Based off what we have seen in Ukraine he would have a hard time conventionally doing anything the farther west he goes. NATO combined forces conventionally would decimate Russia if they attempted to attack towards NATO. MAD at this point works both way, we were not putting boots on the ground for Ukraine even before he threatened nuclear attack for interference, and he threatened it because already attacked and is considered "all in" concerning Ukraine.
     
  3. ShadowX

    ShadowX Well-Known Member

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    You keep saying nato combined forces. Are you under the impression Russia is going to do so without Chinese backing? I will agree without China Russia won’t risk fighting nato. But if Russia can convince China to take Hong Kong and Taiwan then they will be fighting a world war together. Not just Russia.
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2022
  4. Aleksander Ulyanov

    Aleksander Ulyanov Well-Known Member

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    You're making the same mistake the Soviets did. This is the age of the Welfare States not Ancient Rome or the British Empire. You don't get gold and slaves from conquered provinces any more, you get fractious people you have to take care of and that is costly. Too costly by far as the Soviets themselves found out in 1989.

    Oh, and let him touch a NATO nation and we will be all over him, as will be the rest of NATO, We are not going into Ukraine because it is far from being an ally but NATO remains about the strongest alliance of Western nations that has ever existed, Putin has nothing even close to what is required to challenge that.
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2022
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  5. ShadowX

    ShadowX Well-Known Member

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    I’m not too sure about that. WwII wasn’t that long ago and Hitler did a pretty damn fine job of consolidating his power and using a much smaller and (after wwI) decimated military to conquer and plunder the whole of Europe. While he GREW his military and economic war machine through those country’s resources and forced their men to fight for him.
     
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  6. ShadowX

    ShadowX Well-Known Member

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    I mean at the very least he’s going to take the non-nato countries near him. Because no one is going to stop him.
     
  7. Same Issues

    Same Issues Well-Known Member

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    Once again its hard to argue with opinion. China is technically neutral on this as it is the best position for them. We cannot guarantee China will get involved in anything, they would probably love the west to nuke themselves especially if they can sit back and watch. Hong Kong is Chinese btw.
     
  8. Same Issues

    Same Issues Well-Known Member

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    Maybe Moldova or Georgia, lets let him finish with Ukraine before we get ahead of ourselves. Likely outcome at this point is a negotiation at this point with Russia only taking whatever they will consider Crimea and the breakaway republics getting whatever Russia considers the breakaway republics. Ukraine itself will probably keep some form of territory so in the end Russia is not even going to conquer the Ukraine, just split it up.
     
  9. Aleksander Ulyanov

    Aleksander Ulyanov Well-Known Member

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    China and Russia aren't even that friendly, let alone Allied. This idea that they are some sort of evil Entente out to rule the world is purest fantasy

    Even conventionally the USA could handily beat the pants off both of them together with one arm tied behind our back but it would never come to that as the nukes would be flying long before that happened.
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2022
  10. ShadowX

    ShadowX Well-Known Member

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    Yes they believe Taiwan is Chinese as well.

    Moreover we are all talking about our opinions because we are pontificating on the future.

    My opinion however is predicated upon sound logic while yours is predicated on fairy dust and kitten purrs. Let me ask you this. Do you HONESTLY think Russia didnt know it’s military capabilities after its time in Syria recently and with the chechens and fighting Ukraine in Crimea? Of course they did.

    So we have to ask ourselves, do we think Russia invaded Ukraine without getting at least tacit acceptance that if the west got involved China would militarily support Russia? I think that’s pretty much a guarantee because Russia knows it couldn’t do this alone if the western world had decided to involve itself militarily.
     
  11. ShadowX

    ShadowX Well-Known Member

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    “China-Russia relations were elevated to a special category in 2019. The "comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era" signaled strong military, political and economic alignment, and close ties described last year as "better than an alliance."”
     
  12. Aleksander Ulyanov

    Aleksander Ulyanov Well-Known Member

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    They are not the ideological allies we faced in the 60's Communism died in 1989 and has not revived.
     
  13. ShadowX

    ShadowX Well-Known Member

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    You’re wrong. Communism is alive and well although most of its adherents don’t call it that anymore. They refer to it in terms of the collective. Essentially any ideology today that advocates for the “collective” has its roots in And is predicated upon Marxist communist ideology. I guess you can say it’s not communist and that’s fine but the same relative ideological battle lines can be drawn today as they were in the 60’s and prior. It is the right of the individual vs the good of the collective.
     
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  14. Aleksander Ulyanov

    Aleksander Ulyanov Well-Known Member

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    Versailles gave Germany a much smaller military which Hitler was able to use as an Officer Corps for the much larger Army he built after 1936. He may have plundered Europe's art but he took little of their industrial capacity and he got very few recruits for his Waffen SS from France and Poland.
     
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  15. Same Issues

    Same Issues Well-Known Member

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    1) Yes China does believe Taiwan is part of China, that's not debatable and I believe that civil war is technically not officially resolved. China has never recognized that fact, Taiwan in fact also does not officially recognize their complete independence. That issue is technically a proxy war between the US and China.

    2) Agreed Russia now knows its military capabilities, especially after the stumble into Ukraine, its impossible for them to engage with an EU or NATO country, they would be decimated - probably would not even be able to maintain naval or air superiority and would get eaten up just by drone warfare. Regardless your original argument is they will do all this off the back of Nuclear threats, not the capabilities of its conventional forces.

    3)No we get nothing regarding China at this point. China has no military treaty with anyone, they are not in bloc or anything of that nature. Their allies are day to day depending on what is best for China geopolitically at the moment. China once again is remaining as neutral as they can concerning this conflict, not like they are supporting Russia with troops or even equipment. How can you gurantee China will put boots on the ground for Russia.... in Europe?!

    China will be more than happy to see Europe at war as long as they can remain neutral and unscathed, it benefits them immensely.
     
  16. Aleksander Ulyanov

    Aleksander Ulyanov Well-Known Member

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    Maybe so, but a general philosophy is not an ideology formally formulated, codified, promulgated and governing a major alliance of nation-states, a "second world" to use the term they were known by.

    In many ways Russia, and particularly China, is a good deal more capitalistic than we are nowadays, though still more authoritarian.
     
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  17. DEFinning

    DEFinning Well-Known Member Donor

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    Why would a fight with Russia, bring in China?


    It sounds as if you might have at least a passing familiarity with Dugin's The Fourth Political Theory, and Eurasianism movement, which are reputed to have had such influence on Putin (as I've just learned). If you're not, I give a fair bit of SNIPS, in this post:

    http://www.politicalforum.com/index.php?threads/is-putin-sane.597327/page-5#post-1073306068

    (In Dugin's view, btw, while Finland is definitely part of the new Empire, Sweden is not.)
     
  18. zalekbloom

    zalekbloom Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  19. DEFinning

    DEFinning Well-Known Member Donor

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    At best, in your scenario, above, the two countries are fighting different battles, simultaneously, which is a different thing, than fighting together. And China is fighting only Taiwan, not a World War.

    It is not on China's interest to support Russia, in a battle with NATO. They do not need Russia, because Taiwan is not in NATO and, if Xi was unsure before (though he certainly should not have been), he now knows, for sure, that NATO is not going to come to Taiwan's rescue, at least not in person, though they will send "gifts." If there is any coordination, it will only be because Xi is ready for the move, anyway, & sees an opportunistic advantage, in doing it, when NATO is already focused on a threat, closer to its home base.

    Crazy. There is no upside to China's supporting Russia, against NATO. Putin very clearly had planned to use the nuclear threat, to ward off any NATO involvement. The discussions with Xi probably had to do more with economic ramifications of any possible sanctions, as having a market for Russian oil. And Putin would not have wanted to lose China's good will, by upstaging their Winter Olympics, so timing may have been discussed, as well.

    Well, I give you credit for basing your ideas on something tangible, but they are, after all, only words...Didn't NATO tell Ukraine that, if they gave up their nukes, we would defend them from a Russian attack?

    I would say this compact is about autocracy, and ideas about cultural identity, more than anything else.
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2022
  20. Joe knows

    Joe knows Well-Known Member

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    We should be allowing this plane transaction to take place.
     
  21. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

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    Yes, since we are allowing Russia to take Ukraine, Putin will take on a NATO country sooner or later. Lithuania perhaps or Poland. That will drag us kicking and screaming. The existence of nuclear power is the threat and always has been. Putin making threats doesn't change that. We should never make policy based on the threats of an enemy. Not ever.
     
  22. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

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    I guess if we can embrace hysteria over covid, we can embrace it over nukes.
     
  23. Hey Now

    Hey Now Well-Known Member

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    There is a ton of confusion and dis/misinformation on the topic of the US killing the Polish Mig deal to the Ukrainians. This is my understanding after watching Jennifer Griffin on FOX news.
    The Poles wanted to deliver the Migs to the Americans, in Germany, to flyover to the Ukrainians. The US has said a hard NO this idea as it would put US pilots directly in conflict airspace over Ukraine. Jennifer Griffin, FOX News, said that the US will allow Ukrainian pilots to go to Poland and fly the jets over themselves.
    Makes sense to me.
     
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  24. Thedimon

    Thedimon Well-Known Member

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    1. While Ukraine shows very heroic resistance, something that everyone admires, the reality is such that Russians can literally overcome Ukrainians by drowning them with russian corpses. Ukrainians seem to struggle with counter-attacking, which demonstrates that there are limits in their strength. The proposed solution on which they are working on pretty much just results in the recognition of Crimea, as Donbas, the way I see it, would become a de facto autonomy.
    2. Ukrainians keep asking for jets or to close the sky. It looks like Pentagon itself is not comfortable with making such transfer, yet encourages Poland to do so. If Ukrainians can’t get such assistance, than in my eyes, it’s better to stop the killings and just accept the result of the war, which is not horrible. Finland lost a large chunk of its territory as a result of the winter war.
    3. Neutrality is not bad as long as Ukraine gets to keep its military. Even before this war I supported the idea of Ukraine being a well armed neutrality instead of the member of NATO. Russians gave up on the idea of preventing Ukraine from joining the EU.
    4. If I understand this correctly, this solution will naturally extinguish fighting in Ukrainian East - if both sides demilitarize the region then they’ll have nothing to fight with. This could almost be called a win for Ukraine.

    I understand that it’s fun to discuss this war from the safety of our homes, and I do enjoy Russian extreme losses, but, if I was in charge in Ukraine, I would seriously consider this deal because:
    1. It gives the path to reintegration of separatist regions back into Ukraine.
    2. By recognizing Crimea Pootin walks away with some face-saving victory. I do not know of anyone in Ukraine who has illusions about returning Crimea. Now, I’ve actually seen people consider Crimea a threat.
    3. The territorial loss is minimal. Russia got its bloody nose and will have no appetite to harass Ukraine again, as it was demonstrated to Russia that doing so can be very costly. And no - Ukraine just proved to them that they can’t march to Kyiv in 2 days.
    4. It stops the killing.

    It looks like Ukrainian side is working on this deal. If the west is not interesting in giving Ukraine the means to escalate (fighter jets), then I think accepting this deal will stop the killings and Ukraine will be truly independent and enjoy real respect from the Western world. It won’t stop Pootins adventurism towards others, but, at this point, it’s not the problem Ukraine can afford to solve for others.
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2022
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  25. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Why can't Poland just give the planes to Ukraine? Why are they asking to US deliver them to Ukraine? Shared blame?

    That's pretty much how they saved their face in the Winter War against Finland after losing 300 000 troops. I think that is something Ukraine might want to consider. Crimea is already gone, and those separatist areas are nothing but trouble.

    No, these are "save the face" conditions. The main goal was to install a Russian puppet in Kiev.

    Finland / Sweden entered a "Major Non-NATO" pact, which is same as US has with Israel, Japan and Australia. They are likely to be fast-tracked to NATO ae well.

    They are NATO, so yes, but since they are in fact NATO, Russia will not attack them.
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2022
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