Is Finland next?

Imagine you are a Russian solder. What motivation would you have to fight Ukranians who have not done anything to your country? Morale has to be incredibly low.

 

Who said: "Stupid is as stupid does."?

 

Yes, there used to be a Kitayskaya Street in Harbin. What do they call it now?

 

"Great damage to the Russians" is only in the Western media. The reality is quite different.
The Russians have insignificant losses in manpower, but the key word in this is "insignificant". (Of course, on the scale of what is happening. Ukraine is still the second largest country in Europe, with more than 41 million people and the most militarized country in the world with modern weapons from different countries of the world)
Also, if you look closely at what is happening, you will see that Russia almost does not use modern weapons in this military operation. For example, pay attention - in Ukraine there are no modern T-90 tanks, no new combat aircraft and helicopters (the exception is some cases of using modern models for the purpose of running in real combat operations) ..... In general, I think you understand.
The fact that the Baltic countries are members of NATO is not decisive.
Illiterate people with pathos refer to the NATO Collective Security Treaty, specifically to Article No. 5. Like, in case of aggression against any NATO country, the NATO countries will immediately start military operations together.
But, as I wrote above, the reality is quite different.
Read Article No. 5 - "The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defense recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of the armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security."
I have highlighted key words in this treaty.
"such action as it deems necessary" - this can mean - "we will express concern", or "we will pray for you" ... etc. The range of action as it deems necessary is huge. And only as a last resort (which is indicated in the agreement by the word "including") military assistance.
By the way, military assistance can also be different. It does not have to mean participation in military clashes. Military assistance is also the supply of components for the production of ammunition or the supply of petroleum products, electronics and other things that have a military use definition. For example, the United States provided military assistance to Hitler. Standard Oil supplied oil for the Nazis, or Ford, which built and repaired military equipment for the Nazis.
So ... in reality, the NATO agreement is an ordinary piece of paper for the implementation of a PR campaign.

 

Churchill said - "Britain has no permanent allies, Britain has only permanent interests."
This phrase very well illuminates the politics of any country in the world.
You say that in the event of a military conflict between Russia and China, no one will come to the aid of the Russians.
I assure you, many will come. And the first to come to the aid of the Russians is the United States.
Today, Russia alone is capable of destroying any country in the world and even the planet earth.
But suppose that China, after some time, gained the same military power. And he decided to attack the Russians.
In this case, I can say with a 100% guarantee that the United States will come to the aid of the Russians. (however, just as if the Russians attacked China, the US would come to the aid of the Chinese).
In fact, everything is simple - in the event of China's victory over Russia, China will increase its power so much that it will 100% attack the United States. Therefore, maintaining more or less acceptable and established rules is the concern of the political elite of any country of the highest level.

For example, remember the 2nd World War.
As long as the Western countries were sure that Hitler could be manipulated, they helped Hitler. In order to set him on the USSR. And then, when he destroys the USSR (and accordingly weakens in the war), destroy him.
But as soon as the Western countries saw that Hitler attacked them, they almost immediately concluded, first a political and then a military alliance with the USSR.
At the same time, as soon as the USSR and the anti-Hitler coalition destroyed the Nazis in Germany and Japan, the West planned an attack on the USSR. (Read about Operation Unthinkable.)
The USSR was saved by the fact that, firstly, there was socialism in the USSR, and this is a fundamentally different ideology of people, and secondly, that the USSR very quickly received nuclear weapons and could resist on an equal footing.
This is real politics.

 

All I know is that this war gains nothing for Russia and loses a lot. Looking at the war in Iraq a group determined that the actual cost of the Iraq war to the USA was $1.8T about 5 years after the invasion. How then can Russia support 3-4 Iraqs? It is moronic.

I go into Schwab to do some research on my stocks and they have a message that you can not buy Russian securities any longer. How serious is that?

 

What you say makes sense, from the "40,000-foot level", where dispassionate logic prevails in high-level 'think-tanks', conducted by educated people with access to unfiltered classified information. But, down in the 'toilet bowl' of everyday, wage-earners' lives, I very much doubt right now that anybody would give a damn if China seized Russian oil fields and refineries, or Siberian forests, or any of the rest of it. Today, right or wrong, Russia has become a PARIAH, and it will be hated, feared, and increasingly shunned until, one way or another, until Putin is gone....

We in 'the West' have truncated attention-spans and increasingly dumbed-down populations, as you surely know. All anybody really wants is easy access to unlimited amounts of 'stuff', available at cheap prices -- and to hell with everything else. Plus, if we can get the government to just GIVE it to us for nothing, we'll keep our benefactors in power forever.... Thus, once Putin is gone, we in 'the West' will just revert to our default 'orbits', Russia will be forgiven, and 'all will be right with the world'... for a while.

Nevertheless, you're also quite right about the world prior to WWII... all anybody in 'the West' wanted was for the National Socialists in Germany to make damn sure that Soviet communism stayed bottled-up in Russia, while everyone else got to go on enjoying 'business-as-usual'. Our big irritation in the 1930's was with Japan, for butting into our private, money-making 'cornucopia' in the Far East... but I digress.

Anyway, no matter what present-day CHINA does, it seems certain now that before long, both Sweden and Finland will become full-fledged NATO partners. But make no mistake -- at this point, the most important factor in 'what comes next' depends on what CHINA does. And if the Chinese do actually stand with Russia instead of turning on it, then we in 'the West' have many more problems of even larger magnitude headed our way....

 

1.
You're not right. War is a necessary measure for Russia, but it is an objectively necessary measure.
By destroying the fascist rehim in Ukraine, the Russians increase their security. NATO is guaranteed not to be able to expand eastward.
Also, after the end of the war, I think that part of the territory of the former Ukraine will become part of Russia. And these are the territories of the southeast of Ukraine, that is, the most industrialized areas. And this is a big plus for the economy. Moreover, the vast majority of ethnic Russians live in these regions. And now they are enthusiastically meeting the Russian army.
Also, the Russians get direct land access to the Russian region in Moldova (Transnistria), provide the territory of Crimea with 100% fresh water, ... and generally control in all areas the second largest country in Europe with 41 million people.
But even this is not the main thing. The main thing is that politicians in Western countries will start to think.
This war clearly showed two significant points.
1. Western countries have realized that they cannot resist Russia by military means.
2. Western countries have realized that they can not put pressure on Russia economically.
3. The most intelligent of Western politicians understood that the West loses more from sanctions than Russia. (Russia is, in principle, a self-sufficient country. With such a territory and such a quantity of minerals, Russia can live independently)

2.
I can't say for sure. I don't trade stocks.
I think for Russia this decision of the Western stock trading platforms has a double meaning.
On the one hand, the ban on trading in Russian securities has a negative impact on the Russian economy (to some extent it deprives financial flows from outside),
but on the other hand, the shares of Russian companies have fallen in price and the Russian government is actively buying them up.
And these are serious companies. Mostly from science-intensive industries and the oil and gas sector. Which has a positive effect on the economy. For example, in Russia, the price of gasoline has been decreasing for the last two weeks.

 

Its getting more and more like USSR. You have to be VERY careful what you say in Russia. Speech which is critical of Russia can land you in prison for 15 years.

Russian ‘fake news’ law could give offenders 15 years in prison
https://www.theverge.com/2022/3/4/2...ilitary-ukraine-invasion-casualties-jail-time
Russian president Vladimir Putin has signed a law punishing “fake news” with up to 15 years in prison. The rule will impose fines or jail terms for spreading false information about the military, as well as fines for people who publicly call for sanctions against Russia. Courts would mete out the harshest sentences for fake news that leads to “serious consequences.”

According to earlier coverage from The Moscow Times, the bill is meant to penalize people who knowingly “distort the purpose, role and tasks of the Russian Armed Forces, as well as other units during special military and other operations,” including people who spread unapproved information about Russian war losses.

 

This isn't new even with this new legislation. There have been tons of reports of sentences with no end dates for people that have been critical of Putin for a long time now. They will hand down a 1 year sentence and just keep them in prison after that.

 

You write "Russia has become an outcast." I disagree with you. And here are my arguments.
China, India, Pakistan support Russia - this is half the world's population. (China is the world's second economy in absolute terms, but the world's first in purchasing power parity).
Also, almost all Latin American countries support Russia. (Even The Mexican President announced his support for Russia.) ....
African countries support Russia .... Even some European countries support Russia (Serbia, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina ...)
That is, to say - Russia is an outcast, this is inappropriate. Is not it?

As for "sanctions", in the first place, Russians have always lived under sanctions (first against the USSR, for example, the Jackson-Venig amendment, then after its collapse, also now). Now the sanctions are a little higher than ever. But it's not critical.
Secondly, I am sure that in two, maximum three months, many sanctions will be lifted.
But even if we leave the maximum possible sanctions, then by and large, nothing will change for the Russians. At first, the economy will sink a little, but as it reorients itself to its own production, the Russian economy will even benefit in the long run.
For example, after the revolution of 1917, a total ban on economic relations was introduced against the USSR. So what? At the same time, at that time, the USSR was completely destroyed by numerous wars, including civil war and intervention (14 countries of the world fought against the young USSR. Such as the USA, Germany, France, Japan ... are the most powerful countries of that time).
But the USSR not only survived, but also became the second economy in the world. And a leader in many industries (for example, space or nuclear power plants).
Now Russia is much stronger economically than then.
Russians will easily buy any necessary goods through third countries. As Marx said - "there is no such crime that the capitalist will not commit for the sake of profit."
But basically, Russia can fully exist on self-sufficiency.

 

There's a lot of truth in what you say -- honestly -- and it is clear that Russia's financial position is much stronger than it was 20 years ago. Many people forget that whether they hate him or not, Vladimir Putin has a Ph.D. in Economics, and, evil or not, he's no fool! Evidently, he's been carefully planning this Ukraine escapade ever since the last one in 2014.

That said, I think you may be overestimating the importance of Latin American countries, Sub-Saharan African countries, and frankly small, insignificant European ones, like Serbia, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Besides, what we've seen develop during the rapid expansion of the 'Belt-and-Road' initiatives is that it is CHINA that 'owns' Sub-Saharan Africa -- not Russia. And that's getting to be true in South America, too -- although it is true that Russia does enjoy quite a lot of influence in Mexico, and has for many years.

But all that aside, Russia has been adept at averting the worse effects of sanctions -- until now. This economic tug-of-war which is developing now is illustrated in the little two-minute video here:

How happy are these former Soviet "stan" countries happy with the situation in Russia now and money they depend on...?

sov

Can Russia survive what is becoming a "Central Bankers' war gone wild"...? So far it has, and very importantly, Russia has avoided defaulting on obligations. But, while Russia struggles with its Ukraine campaign, crushing economic sanctions, and the increasing enmity of First-World countries throughout the world, it is very possible that the CHINESE can simply dance around on the sidelines, with a half-hearted support of mere 'verbiage', while it waits for Russia to dissolve into eventual insolvency, military mutinies, and civil insurrection. THAT is when China would make its move -- not immediately on Taiwan... but on RUSSIA!

 

Fake News. First, NATO did not exist during WWII and Second we supplied Russia, not Germany, even before we entered the war.

https://share.america.gov › america-sent-equipment-to-soviet-union-in-world-war-ii
"America sent gear to the USSR to help win World War II. Even before the United States entered World War II in December 1941, America was sending arms and equipment to the Soviet Union to help it defeat the Nazi invasion."

 

It's not about the war between Russians and Ukrainians. This is an episode. In fact, a world crisis is now coming, which can be called a civilizational crisis of the economy. That is, if you like - a super crisis. (Even the Great Depression or the Russian Civil War are less significant)
The fact is that the world has approached the ceiling of the development of the capitalist social and political system. And within the framework of capitalism, this crisis will not be solved.
I am sure that the standard of living will fall all over the world.
If we look at the events in Ukraine, we will see that the main world players are using this situation in different ways.
Russia wants to protect its borders from NATO expansion, China wants to justify the upcoming invasion of Taiwan, politicians in the EU, the US and a number of other countries want to attribute the decline in living standards of their countries' inhabitants to the fight against "aggressive" Russia.
As an example. Gasoline prices have gone up in the US. And politicians of all levels explain to the gullible electorate that "aggressive" Russia is to blame for everything. The United States has imposed sanctions and therefore gasoline has risen in price. But all this is for the sake of peace and solidarity with "unfortunate" Ukraine.
But if you look realistically at what is happening.
Russia supplied oil to the US in such insignificant volumes that even a complete ban on oil supplies from Russia cannot have any effect on the pricing of gasoline in the US. This is with a complete rejection of Russian oil. But the thing is, Russian oil, as it did in the United States before, is doing it now. Only this oil is carried not by Russian tankers, but by tankers under the flag of, for example, Panama or Luxembourg.
In other words, all the talk that Russia is to blame for the rise in gasoline prices in the US is a lie.
And so on all counts. All sanctions are a banal PR and an attempt to explain the drop in living standards, allegedly, by sanctions against Russia.
And do not forget that two years before that we were told about the unprecedented and terrible Covid-19. Which now for some reason abruptly disappeared from the information field.
Therefore, if there had been no war in Ukraine, they would have found another reason.

 

Learn history.

 

on a lighter note about Finland..

when I first saw this band I thought they were from the Appalachian mountains

everybody knows don't mess with mountain folks

but this is a band from Finland.....named Stevenseagulls

I bet the ruskies dont want any part of guys like this

 

You are dodging because your claim is false. My claim, below, stands in pure unrefuted magnificence.

 

1. I never wrote that NATO existed during the Second World War. Your statement is a lie.
2. American companies supplied and financed Hitler before more than they began to deliver (at inflated prices) to the USSR.
By the way, Panama-flagged tankers continued to supply Standard Oil fuel to Nazi Germany even in 1944. Deliveries went through Spanish ports.
And the Ford factories carried out maintenance and repair of cars of the Nazi army until the end of the war. (Especially in Africa)
Once again, study history.

 

Since you are on your high horse, why don't you tells us about the Hitler/Stalin pact of August 1939?

As for your "inflated prices" horse ****. American materials "destroyed, lost or used during the war were not subject to payment." What had to be paid for was the property that remained after the war and was used for civilian purposes.

 

The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact is a great diplomatic victory for the USSR. This treaty made it possible to postpone a direct clash between the USSR and Germany for two years. This allowed the Russians to strengthen their industry and military forces.
By the way, the Russians were the last to conclude a non-aggression pact with the Germans.
The Poles, for example, in 1934 concluded an alliance with Nazi Germany - Hitler - Pilsudski.
Or remember the Munich Agreement of 1938, which marked the beginning of the Second World War in Europe with aggression against Czechoslovakia.

 

I bet Finnish real estate is getting cheap.

 

Not sure how poorly it really is going in Ukraine. Haven’t heard of Russians losing ground.

as far as Finland, I definitely think he’s going to attack or pressure politically. He’s been hinting at this since the invasion of Ukraine

 

"Beware the Finns, for they are a wild and terrible race" Julius Caesar

 

Its going poorly. They are not even close to reaching their goals, and have lost some 10 000 men and lot of equipment, while Ukraine is training more and more troops and receiving more anti-air and anti-tank arms.