Russian forces pulling out of Kharkiv.

And the question of the existence of the USSR Russia will be decided - in utter finality - as well.

 

Then Mafialand gets nuked in return....and that'll be the end of the Asiatic freedom....you don't think of that vis....Crimea may well crawl back to Ukraine....it wouldn't surprise.

Ukraine sunk Moskva,Mak,Bobrov, what did Mafialand do....nothing.

 

Looks like the liberation of Belgorod has begun....

Shelling of Solokhi village.....Belgorod region.

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1525161979572371458?s=20&t2zollRWfTyJPRJ5qn-Clxw

 

The news says a civilian was killed there. I wonder who's doing the shooting and why?

 

No, not yet.
Arestovich predicts peak of bloodshed to July-August.

 

If civilians got hurt then it was Russians doing the shelling.

 

Maybe....I was figuring Ukrainians did a flyby with a couple old Hind 24s.

 

That’s just Ukrainians telling Belgorod: “Welcome to the party, pal!”

 

Yippee-ki-yay...

 

Nonsense .. Azov Battalion doing plenty of shelling in civilian areas .. got to get yourself over to RT more often

 

Ukrainians are too inept to shoot at Russians. That’s why when you see news of Russian territory being hit, you can be sure that it’s the Russians shooting their own.

 

vlad is a lot like Trump, he will never admit he screwed up

 

Before anyone gets too positive about Ukrainian gains north and east of Kharkiv it should be noted that Russia has also made some gains around albeit none as large or significant as those made by Ukriane in and around Rubizhne. The Russians still have a significant advantage in conventional artillery and air power albeit that situation may change as Ukraine starts to deploy Western artillery systems, particularity precision guided munitions like the MRLS (these are an excellent force multiplier).

The problem is that the entire confrontation line is quite long and neither side has the forces available to be 'strong' at multiple points along that line. (Russia may have had the forces available if it had planned properly before the onset of the war but it right royally f&%$ed that opportunity up and Ukraine has long since whittled the Russian army down to something approaching parity in terms of offensive capability. So both sides are left having to pick a time and place where the can concentrate what they have.

Russian has chosen the Dombass because (A) securing all of that region was one of Putin's primary war aims to begin with and a 'win' there lets him claim 'mission accomplished' back home. And (B) because of the shape of the confrontation line the Dombass more or less forms the 'base' of the U so if it could achieve a break though there it could potentially link up with it's forces to the south and then trap and encircle a large part of the Ukraine's standing professional army, including a lot of its best tanks and AFVs. Ukraine absolutely cannot afford to let that happen. Based on all the reports I've been able to read such a major breakthrough isn't very likely BTW (Russia's lost too many men and too much of its best equipment) but it does explain why Russia is attacking where it is attacking.

Meanwhile Ukraine is advancing in the north around Kharkiv because (A) its the largest civilian population center in Eastern Ukraine and the population needs to be protected and (B) because advancing there helps 'straighten the curve' a bit and if they can push far enough it puts Ukrainian armed forces on the flank of Russia's advance in the south. But again it hasn't been able to commit as many units to that offensive as it would like because it needs to maintain its defenses everywhere else along the line. The same situation applies at the opposite end of the line near Kherson. The Ukrainians would dearly love to be able to achieve similar gains in territory there (and for the same reasons) but the terrain is apparently so open that both sides are finding it hard to concentrate forces for a breakthrough without the other side becoming aware of the fact.

So in conclusion the war could very easily turn into a stalemate and the advances near Kharkiv aren't going to change that. Alternately Ukraine can still 'win' but only if 'winning' also involves conceding some territory to Russia. Russia on the other hand cannot 'win' (as long as Ukraine keeps avoiding serious mistakes) if you measure 'victory' using Putin's originally stated (and unstated) victory conditions. He wanted a display of Russian military might? Russian armed forces have been humiliated in the field by a much weaker opponent. He wanted regime change? Not happening. He wanted to stop NATO Expansion? He's got the opposite. Finland and Sweden are joining the alliance and the result is Russia will now share a much, much longer border with NATO than it would ever have faced if Putin had just left Ukraine alone. He wanted a disunited and bickering West and a stronger Russian economy moving forward following his takeover? etc etc.

But neither side is going to get everything they want. Not unless one side or the other makes a series of monumental **** ups. SO that leans Both sides are going to have to make concessions. That said IMO Ukraine will still be the 'winner' because it will emerge from the war with its international reputation intact and with closer economic and military ties to the West. Apart from some lost territory as a result of this war it it will grow stronger. Russia under Putin? It will emerge weaker than it was before the war started and just continue to weaken further.

 

Ukraine has no nukes.

 

Some folks say the strangest things

 

Why is that good news? That's showing that the Ukrainians are no better than the Russians.

 

"Russia" is not an issue; Putin is the issue.

 

For the record, loved the analysis… but

I’ve heard a rumor that China isn’t going to let that happen. From what I heard from someone in China is that China is beginning to fear that their one and only major country military “ally” will be depleted to the point that they become irrelevant on the world stage, significantly weakening China’s position on being able to achieve consensus on what they want.

For the record this is just a study abroad friend from a long time ago with a low level government job in China. But he’s far more plugged in than I am so I don’t discount what he says.

 

It will be soon!

 

What will be soon? Belgorod will become Ukranian or the capital of Ukraine will move to Moscow?

 

If Ukraine builds 1 million force, there is no way Russians will be able to stay there for much longer. Russians are already outnumbered in Ukraine, they aren’t pushing yet because they want to eliminate the possibility of making costly errors during the counter attack. Vitaliy Kim, who is in charge of defending Mykolaiv, said today that after Kharkiv Kherson will be next to be liberated. Ukraine isn’t going to just sit on 1 million force and watch 100,000 Russians make themselves at home. I’ve seen American generals estimating Ukraine completely pushing Russians out by the end of the summer. Add to that estimates by Arestovich of peak bloodshed being at July-August and you can see where this is going.

 

Has Kharkiv been occuped by Russian army at all? I do not think so...Americans are too optimistic. I do think the war will continue at least for one more year.

 

Putin actually has more support from Russians than any recent American politician has support of Americans.

 

The West does...it'll be used.

 

I do not think so. Ukraine is not in NATO. And West does not want to go to trash because of Ukraine.