Is A Recession Imminent???

It is impossible to conclude an effect when one of the comparatives never happened.
Perhaps that is why so many studies were not considered useful, as mentioned above. 34 out of 18,500 qualified tells me nothing.

 

The "lock down" response to covid caused many people to to stop moving about as freely and spending as much. During the same period businesses lost employees. When the lock downs ended. There was a pent up demand and a lot of unused money. People began spending again. Demand rose. At the same time the supply side of the equation was damaged and couldn't keep up resulting in less supply than the demand demanded. Prices rose. This is still going on, at least in the U.S. There has been a small reduction in demand starting around the beginning of the year and supply is beginning to rise. People in my industry have said exactly this pretty consistently. Business has been poor because of product shortages. Getting orders is not a problem. Filling them is a problem. This will resolve itself over time.

I can't speak for the rest of the world but the U.S. has experienced another problem and that is inflation of the money supply. When government spends money it doesn't have, it simply spends it into existence. Adding money to the supply dilutes the value of the money. Since money becomes worth less it takes more of it to buy anything. This will not resolve itself over time. The economy will respond by raising wages and salaries to make up for the lower currency value. Government will continue diluting the currency. It is permanent and that is why the value of the U.S. dollar has declined steadily over the decades. All of it was caused by government as you can see. Government can't fix it but it can avoid making the same mistakes in the future. I doubt that will happen.

So we have a double sided problem. Reduced supply in the face of rising demand created higher prices. In the U.S., at least, the declining value of the currency hurt personal wealth and buying power. This sort of thing has happened before but not normally as severely as the current situation.

 

And this hascbeen the case ACROSS THE TRADING WORLD!
It isn't your government. It is that Covid pretty much stopped trade at every level from office workers filling trade permits to warehousrmen to ships crews to shop and office staff at point of sale to those who work in banking and investment.
You have no idea what civid would have done if it hadn't been contained. From he frais and elderly tovthe CEO ofcan 8nternational company.
And hindsight is is wonderful thing. We know viruses mutate. No one knows into what until it happens.
Now I don't know what you want from your national leader but my first expectation is the préservation and safety of the population.
NOT THEIR WEALTH.
The latter can be replaced. Not the former.
We all suffered during Covid. We all lost all kinds of things.
No one person or govt could have changed it.
It does not hold as another snowball in your fight.

 

If Covid caused the shutdowns, then its fair to say inflation was caused by Covid. And it wasn't just the shutdowns, but the massive money creation in 2020, but I'd say the global shutdowns were by far the bigger reason. Prime example was the sawmill shutdowns in Canada driving lumber prices through the roof in US. You make it sound like the whole thing was caused by the US, but that's not the case. Our shortages is caused mostly by shutdowns in other countries, and the distribution network being unable to distribute the goods to the consumer.

The idea was to keep people from going to the work place, or places of business to get infected and then infect others.

Yes, and not just in US, but almost everywhere. UK inflation is around 11%. Turkey is clocking around 72%.

Yes, but everything these days is fine-tuned to operate at near 100% capacity, so its hard for them to handle the extra demand.

Actually it has been pretty steady. For example the USD to Euro is about one-to-one, and it has been around the same for long time, and it has fluctuated. At one point one Euro cost 1.6 USD

 

Yes it was. The response to COVID was incorrect and harmful. It isn't the people or the private sector that led this response. It was government.

In fact it was never contained. It ran its course.

Not true. Medical science understands clearly that influenza viruses become more easily spread and less dangerous through the course of mutation. Most influenzas aren't met with the hysteria with which covid was met.

Agreed. All I asked of government was to follow the science. Instead it followed the hysteria and its own self interest.

No government could have changed what covid did. I agree. Government could have stayed out of it. That would have helped.

 

The thing you call "personal inflation" in US is present in UK and majority of all countries. For example, gasoline in UK is at record high, and same is true pretty much everywhere. In Sweden its getting close to $9.00 per gallon.

 

Like I said, we don't even agree on what inflation means. Hint. It isn't about prices, it is about expanding the money supply. I have never used the term personal inflation. Inflation is a government activity, not a personal one. What you are saying is that supply of fuel is low and prices are high everywhere. I agree.

 

Probably after the election and heading into the Christmas holidays is when the wheels come off the economy with people having to choose between necessities and presents for the little ones.