The International Monetary Fund has warned of a high risk of a global Recession within the next 12 months. The article is from The Guardian. Global recession risk rising as economic outlook ‘darkens significantly’, IMF says | Global economy | The Guardian Both the IMF and The Guardian are pretty moderately Progressive Left-leaning, so this isn't just Conservative Right scare tactics. I wonder if it has some connection to the high amount of inflation, or even whether it could have something to do with the recent huge budget deficits across the "Western World" (UK, EU, US, Canada, and Australia), running up government debts even higher than usual. (You can't stimulate the economy to get an "up" without paying the price in the form of a "down" later) Russia and the Ukraine are one part of this, but I believe it is probably not too big of a part if they are talking about a global recession, since those two countries don't have a huge amount of economic entanglement with the rest of the world. Sanctions against Russia initially raised the price of oil on the world market, but now the supply chains have reconnected and China and India sourcing much of their oil from Russia now. The country of Turkey is in a difficult situation with that though. And Europe is going to have a tougher time getting gas this winter to heat buildings. Increased energy costs can often be the driver of a recession. The Guardian also has another article: Missed meals and constant stress: New Zealand’s cost-of-living crisis hits home, July 3, 2022 Discussing inflation in New Zealand and how incomes are not keeping up with the price increases. Will this really be a "Global" recession, or just hit all the "Western countries"? Because we're not seeing inflation now in places like Japan and Thailand, and even in China the inflation rate is very low.
Staggering £25bn down the drain as 9 in 10 Brits plan to cut back with third of all UK households now in 'financial distress' More than a third (36 per cent) of UK households are "financially distressed" and plan to cut back across most, if not all, of their non-essential spending, as low incomes and high debt levels leave little room for manoeuvre, according to a new report. Staggering £25bn down the drain as 9 in 10 Brits plan to cut back with third of all UK households now in 'financial distress' (cityam.com), July 19, 2022 Well, it looks like the UK might be entering a recession. Personally I suspect this may have more to do from the massive levels of immigration into the UK, but it could be more than that.
Others say it is a result of governments running massive budget deficits, especially during the coronavirus shutdown.
When monetary systems fail who gets hurt worst? Street level drug dealers that's who. Their drugs are instantly worth less.
Wouldn't it be interesting if we actually had untold heavy levels of corruption in our political class, and they need to extract it out of the economy every so often, and that's what leads to the recessions?
We've been in recession since February .. possibly even December. All their "it's a possibility .. later" talk is BS smoke and mirrors, designed to keep us spending. They want to squeeze every last cent out of us, before we starve.
If history is any a microscopic picture of future calamities then I think many should be worried. Let us look at a couple things that i believe are on the horizon. 1. In the 70's twice we seen gas shortages that seen people waiting in lines for hours to fill up their tanks. At present this administration is pulling down our gas reserves and artificially giving the impression that gas policies are working. A couple years ago we were energy independent but now we are importing fuel again. When is the last time a new refinery has been built in the U.S.? Look for a fuel crunch by years end. Come cold weather Europe will stop defending the Ukraine in order to have Russia reopen the spigots for energy. Our foreign policy with the Arabs is so wishy-washy that it is pretty hard to predict how they will affect fuel supplies. 2. Already the housing bubble is collapsing at very fast rate. A lot of people are going to find the value of their homes are upside down with collapsing home prices. Large Wall Street investors are buying up homes for rental property causing a shortage of homes for first time buyers. The Fed raising interest rates puts more pressure on the mortage rates to new buyers. Does 2008 seem like a senerio we've seen before? 3. Our National debt is larger than our GDP and with more shutdowns and laying off the workforce means less money coming in. Think 1920 and 1929 when the unemployment rate hit 25% and 20% and people made runs on the bank to get their money. They say we have 11 million jobs now that cannot be filled so many stores are being forced to close their doors. Many will say that we can fill those jobs with those drawing unemployment. Wrong. A majority of those jobs require skilled workers and many will be taken by people who already have a job and are educated and are willing to work to make ends meet. Many of those low paying jobs will be filled by illegals and many payed under the table. 4. Rising interest rates equates too higer rates on credit cards and the purchase of future produts. If people are already using their credit cards to purchase food and other necessities, beware, how much longer before they no longer offer 0% interest if you pay in 30 days.? Expect the re-establishment of card fees and high user percentages let alone penalty fees on late payments. 5. The stock market is telling us a recession is coming if not already here. IRA's and 401's have been obliterated. The markets came down a lot faster than they had went up. Very few places to hide money as all sectors got destroyed one by one. Some of those invested in just one stock or sector could have lost as much as 70% so far this year. Those that got caught up in Crypto and other meme stocks lost the most money and were new investors in the game and now may never get back into the stock market.
We've had depressed economic activity since Democrats did their lockdowns back in 2020 and wouldn't "return to normal" again. Things are only going to get worse, too... We haven't seen what the prices for this year's harvest are going to be (as those fuel and fertilizer and etc costs haven't made their way to the grocery stores yet). The FED is raising interest rates, making the situation even worse. But hey, Democrats WANT a recession. Democrats WANT a depression. Democrats want this to happen so that economic activity lowers, so that energy demand lowers while they "transition" us away from carbon based fuels and onto solar panels and windmills. Without energy demand lowering, there would be rolling blackouts everywhere since solar panels and windmills can't generate enough energy to replace carbon based fuels. IOW, they want to kill off a bunch of "useless eaters" and have the survivors live off of wind/solar while eating fake meat and bugs... while THEY ignore all of that and enjoy their steak and caviar.
The Mises institute saw it coming back in January and Mark Levin called it even earlier in 2021. It's coming and I think it will be worse than 08. https://mises.org/wire/money-supply-grew-november-bigger-trend-way-down
