Pelosi did it, consequenses

The original agreement in 1979 stipulated that the U.S. will move official recognition to the communists but also made clear the US would continue to arm and equipment Taiwan and might even directly militarily intervine if the communists tried to invade (just as it did in the first two Taiwan straights crises in the 1950's and 1960's). Also the US was allowed to continued low level representation and contacts between the US and Taiwan. In return the CCP promised to maintain the peaceful status quo qrt Taiwan (not that they could invade even if they wanted to do so).

The Taiwan Relations Act (I believe it was passed in 1985) legally obligated the U.S. government to continue militarily supporting and equipping Taiwan as a matter of Federal law. So, even if it wanted to, no U.S. administration can legally refuse ar.s sales to Taiwan (except with some high tech restrictions which block foreign sales).

 

There are only 5-7 beaches on Taiwan suitable for landing a large amphib force, we have two aircraft carrier battle groups stationed in Japan and another in Singapore, several other major ships stationed in Guam. The Japanese Navy, South Korean Navy, Taiwan's navy are all right there as well. So, yes, we have a sizable force on hand which can quickly get reinforced. Further more the tides and weather conditions for invasion are only right to months out of the year.

So, no, it would not be the cake walk you claim. Lastly, both the U.S. President and the Japanese PM have said they would go to war to stop an invasion of Taiwan. So your analysis seems flawed.

 

Consequences: The Chicoms are maaaaad with impotent rage and America wins again.

 

Points for understatement.

Assuming China keeps up its naval building program it will have the ability to move a proper invasion force some time in the forseeable future. Not even close now, however. And, as you say, there are naval & air forces in close proximity prepared to move if China tries it. The width of the Taiwan strait only seems small to people who don't really understand how difficult amphibious operations are.

 

If a full-scale war starts between China and the US, I think it will be good for the Russians.
In this case, the Russians will rule the world. When the Chinese and Americans destroy their armies and economies, no one in the world will be able to resist the Russians.

 

~ The internet is full of trolls. It's just more obvious now ...

 

Your analysis depends on believing what this President and PM say they will do, is what they will really do. Its not in either national interest to go to war with another superpower over that damn Island and we will not. If an American President seriously contemplates keeping such a committment, their cabinet needs to revisit that 25th amendment. Its just not remotely worth it,

 

Video for you. Can you reasonably refute? Or, as usual, is it easier for you to say that this is a troll?...However, ... Ostriches hide their heads in the sand.

 

China continues to exit US Treasuries and the fall is accelerating.
At the same time, in China, after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, voices are getting louder and louder, to completely withdraw from dollar assets by the end of the year. At the same time, Chinese economists point out that starting this year, Japan can no longer compensate for China's withdrawal. In China, they are sure that Japan has been doing this for the past few years.
And as a result, trillions of unsecured dollars will return to the US. And what does it mean? This means hyperinflation in the US and the end of the US economy. Is not it?

 

Funny part in this crazy billshit is, that end of US economy = end of China economy because China economy heavily depends on exports to US.

 

Yeah well. It's not exactly as if Pelosi made a personal visit.
This is all 1 massive foreign campaign theme, undoubtingly totally discussed with Biden etc.

 

Despite the hyperbole, that is interesting.

A couple things, you need a link to your source. The other thing is that there has been a lot of capital inflow towards the US. There has also been capital flight out of Russia and China, despite China trying to prevent it.

But how this all will wash out is complicated.

 

This is not the end of the US economy, that's silly.

We are going to have a hell of a time, it's just that it's going to be so much worse for Russia and China.

 

Taiwan is not Ukraine. Taiwan is a province of China, aka as 'One China' policy, which Biden says he supports while lying through his teeth.

The Chinese are NOT lying when they say Taiwan is part of China.

[Note: the ROC in Taiwan until recently claimed THEY were the government of China. The PRC on the mainland are of course still fully committed to the very same claim...Biden chose to ignore Xi's recent exhortations re this point, saying he couldn't stop Perlosi...laughable]

I think the US will have to accept Taiwan is part of China, regardless of an ideological dispute between 'autocracy' and 'freedom'. We are after all living in the age of MAD (which by the way is why the US is sitting around watching Ukraine being pummeled, while Zelensky is begging for more missiles...).

As noted by retired US general Franz Dayl :

(link)

Who Is Franz Gayl, the Pentagon Worker Taking Heat for Op-Eds in Chinese State Media? (newsweek.com)

Who Is Franz Gayl, the Pentagon Worker Taking Heat for Op-Eds in Chinese State Media?
BY BENJAMIN FEARNOW ON 6/12/21 AT 10:46 AM EDT

"Now 14 years later, he has drawn scrutiny from U.S. intelligence officials for writing articles that called Taiwan's democratically elected leaders "renegade secessionists" and described U.S. members of Congress as "corrupt."

The US has been doing so since 2017 when it became apparent China was on course to succeed the US as world's number one economy.

Good points.

 

Yes, yes .... We have already seen "The End of the Russian Economy." After all, its economy is highly dependent on the EU and the US.

 

Ahahaha .... The EU and the US will impose another set of sanctions against Russia?

 

Why end, even in Stone Age there was economy. We will see degradation, simplification and recession to the level of Iran. For example cars production in Russia already collapsed.

 

They will cry and bitch and make a big stink and then everyone will forget about it, except Taiwan.

China will do nothing but put on a big show.

Funny how a little old lady scares the hell out of them. LOL! Good thing we didn't send a man or their heads might have exploded.

 

Really? ...Tell it in Detroit.
By the way, anyone who naturally has a brain can read the headlines of World newspapers to understand reality.
For example.
Germany's imports from Russia are growing: it infuriates the German "fighters whitch Putin " (Die Welt)
Britain broke the anti-record: the strongest decline in living standards in 60 years (Financial Times)
Germany considers lifting sanctions against Russia (Shūkan Gendai)
Bulgaria wants Russian gas on its own terms. But will not receive (Dnes dir bg)
Russia's key role in energy is for a long time (Yeni Safak)
Remove sanctions from Russia or the lights will go out (France Info)
Beijing is not bluffing: it is ready to follow in the footsteps of Moscow (19FortyFive)
Frozen and unwashed: Europeans face an unenviable fate without Russian gas (CNN)
Space race: the US fell behind Russia and China (The Hill)
Russia adequately responded to the US. Her weapons have no equal. (People's Daily)

 

No, but then we don't need to.

 

~ Her ass may have grown up — but her brain stopped when the easy money started to come in ...

 

She’s not as dumb as the part she plays to appeal to her voter base.

The ditzy bobble head act is part of the circuses aspect of bread and circuses politics we live/love in the US

It endears her to her base and tricks her opponents into underestimating her abilities.

 

Re "One China": interesting point about the difference between the US "acknowledgement" versus "recognition" of PRC claims over Taiwan**.

Requires a bit of thought before it sinks in....

So 'One China' in US eyes only refers to the PRC (and not the ROC) being the government of China, but not Taiwan.

Perlosi has certainly managed to remove any confusion about the US meaning of "One China", on the Chinese side.

Interesting times ahead. Hopefully the climate scientists are wrong...now that co-operation in even that field has been closed down.

**Misunderstanding arising from subtle difference in meaning, lost in translation. Like the UN res 242 : "Withdrawal of Israel armed forces from territories occupied in the recent conflict". ....the lack of the word "the" in front of the word "territories" allowed the Israelis to argue over how much territory they were required to withdraw from.

Anyone for effective international law, to solve these issues?

 

I don't think Xi actually wants to invade Taiwan right now, and not for at least another decade. But he does like to use it as a political tool.

 

The problem is logistics. China has overwhelming air superiority and certainly has the manpower to occupy Taiwan. But getting the manpower there to do it is a problem. Taiwan is probably the most militarized nation per acreage on the planet (thanks to us), and they've been fortifying against an amphibious assault for literally decades. Taiwan is probably the most costly place to invade on the planet. Thats not to say China couldn't do it, but they might not be able to do it without drastically unacceptable losses. Victory would eventually be secured if China threw everything its got at Taiwan, but China has a lot of border to secure, population to protect (and oppress...), and it cant afford the pyrric victory that an invasion of Taiwan has a very high chance of becoming.

Or I spose they could shell the island to rubble, but that kinda defeats the purpose.