Get used to it.

Discussion in 'Political Opinions & Beliefs' started by Lee Atwater, Jul 17, 2021.

  1. bringiton

    bringiton Well-Known Member

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  2. bringiton

    bringiton Well-Known Member

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    Translation: when whipping up anti-fossil-fuel hysteria, it's more important for numbers to be scary than to reflect reality -- and any attempt to determine how scary numbers actually relate to reality is to be dismissed as "a denial thing that deniers do."
     
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  3. Lee Atwater

    Lee Atwater Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  4. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Just more tub-thumping. Science is clear that cold is more dangerous than heat.
    Cold Kills: Since 2000 There Were 85 Times More UK Excess Deaths Attributable To Cold Than Heat
    By Kenneth Richard on 21. July 2022

    Share this...
    A new Lancet study ominously reports that from 2000 to 2019 in England and Wales there were an average of 791 heat-related excess deaths and 60,753 cold-related excess deaths each year. That’s an excess death ratio of about 85 to 1 for cold temperatures.
    Adjusted as deaths per 100,000 person-years, the annual ratio is 1.57 heat-related deaths vs. 122.34 cold-related excess deaths throughout the 21st century.

    “Our analysis indicates that the excess in mortality attributable to cold was almost two orders of magnitude higher than the excess in mortality attributable to heat.”

    [​IMG]

    Image Source: Gasparrini et al., 2022
     
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  5. Lee Atwater

    Lee Atwater Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    In the US, 92 all-time record high temperatures had been set through July 16, compared with only five all-time record low temperatures, according to data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (where actual climate scientists work). Globally, 188 all-time heat records were broken versus 18 cool records.

    Studies (by actual climate scientists) have showed that extreme heat will increase in frequency, intensity and duration because of the climate crisis. Gabriel Vecchi, a climate scientist at Princeton University, told CNN that the hot-and-cold record imbalance is a signal of the climate crisis, and scientists have noted a trend in recent years that hot extremes are outpacing cold ones.
    "This is what you would expect from a planetary warming that's been driven in large part from greenhouse gases; this is now the world we're living in," Vecchi told CNN, noting that "it's fair to think that almost every heatwave that we see right now has some influence from global warming."
     
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2022
  6. Lee Atwater

    Lee Atwater Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Repeat after me. What you are experiencing is not happening. What you are experiencing is not happening.

    [​IMG]
     
  7. Lee Atwater

    Lee Atwater Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    So........good thing we have to worry less about cold?

    It sounds like a broken record: as the Earth continues to heat up due to man-made climate change, "hottest temperature on record" has become an increasingly common refrain.

    The U.K. had its hottest day ever on Tuesday, climbing past 40 C for the first time and adding to a long list of weather records in recent years. Dozens of countries have hit their high-temperature marks in the 21st century.

    Experts warn that climate change has increased the frequency of extreme weather events, with studies showing that the likelihood of temperatures in the U.K. reaching 40 C is now 10 times higher than in the pre-industrial era.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/weather-records-1.6523930
     
  8. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    And yet global temperature has been cooling since 2016.
     
  9. Lee Atwater

    Lee Atwater Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    That's like saying it's cooler today than it was yesterday so climate change is a Chinese hoax. I'll stick with the science.
     
  10. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    I just follow the data.
     
  11. bringiton

    bringiton Well-Known Member

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    Right. If anti-fossil fuel hate propagandists somehow managed to return us to the "pre-industrial" temperatures of the 18th century that they claim were ideal, it would be a global calamity.

    Speaking of common refrains, that's the same old post hoc fallacy...

    Of course that is a dishonest way of reporting the numbers. The UK did not exist in the Medieval Warm Period, let alone the Holocene Optimum, when temperatures were higher.

    Countries that did not exist when temperatures were higher...
    I.e., than in the Little Ice Age, the coldest 500-year period in the last 10,000 years. But that doesn't have quite the same unjustified attribution of cause, does it?
     
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  12. Lee Atwater

    Lee Atwater Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I wish you did.
     
  13. Lee Atwater

    Lee Atwater Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    BILLINGS, Mont. — The Biden administration on Monday said the government will plant more than one billion trees across millions of acres of burned and dead woodlands in the U.S. West, as officials struggle to counter the increasing toll on the nation's forests from wildfires, insects and other manifestations of climate change.

    Destructive fires in recent years that burned too hot for forests to regrow naturally have far outpaced the government's capacity to plant new trees. That has created a backlog of 4.1 million acres (1.7 million hectares) in need of replanting, officials said.

    The U.S. Agriculture Department said it will have to quadruple the number of tree seedlings produced by nurseries to get through the backlog and meet future needs. That comes after Congress last year passed bipartisan legislation directing the Forest Service to plant 1.2 billion trees over the next decade and after President Joe Biden in April ordered the agency to make the nation's forests more resilient as the globe gets hotter.

    https://www.9news.com/article/news/...ests/507-e61f6102-73a0-47e3-bdc6-a8fe611d8806

    Tree-Killing Pests Across the United States Are Increasing the Threats of Climate Change

    Insects and diseases that are damaging and killing trees across the contiguous United States are reducing the ability of the nation’s forests to capture and store climate-changing carbon dioxide, according to a new study.

    The study – published in the journal Frontiers in Forests and Global Change – found that forests damaged by insects sequestered 69% less carbon than undamaged forests. Those affected by disease sequestered 28% less carbon. In total, the study found that the damage currently being caused by insects and diseases across the contiguous US is reducing the sequestration potential of America’s forests by roughly 50 million tons of carbon dioxide each year – the equivalent of emissions from more than 10 million cars.

    “America’s forests evolved to thrive alongside many insects and diseases,” said Leigh Greenwood, Forest Health Director with The Nature Conservancy and one of the study’s authors. “But over the past 200 years, the natural balance between forests and pests has been thrown off by the spread of non-native pests, unsustainable logging, fire suppression, and other poor land management practices. Climate change often makes trees even more susceptible to damage from insects and disease, which reduces a forest’s ability to sequester carbon which, in turn, worsens climate change. It’s a vicious cycle.”

    https://www.nature.org/en-us/newsroom/pests-pathogens-threats-forests-climate/
     
  14. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Another climate panic collapses: recent harsh winters have killed off invasive pine beetles thought to be linked to global warming
    2019 › 02 › 27 › another-climate-panic-collapses-recent-harsh-winters-have-killed-off-invasive-pine-beetles-thought-to-be-linked-to-global-warming
    swaths of their pine forests die off due to invasive pine beetles. The pine beetles bored beneath the ... of South Dakota has $700,000 remaining in a ‘pine beetle fund’ which was never used. Last week the South
     
  15. Lee Atwater

    Lee Atwater Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  16. Lee Atwater

    Lee Atwater Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    ST. LOUIS — Historic rainfall moved through the St. Louis area Tuesday morning and brought flash flooding with it.

    A State of Emergency has been declared in Missouri, St. Louis and St. Louis County due to the flooding. One person was known to have died in the flood Tuesday morning.

    More than 9 inches of rain fell across the area through noon which beats the all-time record for rainfall of 6.85 inches that was set on Aug. 20, 1915. The previous record of rain was due to the remnants of the Galveston hurricane.

    https://www.9news.com/article/weath...ather/63-22dbb5a3-f51c-43b8-90ce-d3fd4f43bad9

    But hey, I'm sure there is a blogger out there who can make up a graph with some arrows and numbers proving the record rainfall was really just a light shower. The ones who use those same kinds of graphs to show Earth is in a cooling trend even as heat records around the world are shattered.
     
  17. Lee Atwater

    Lee Atwater Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Get used to it.

    Long-Standing Flood Records Crushed

    One Kentucky town witnessed record flooding from this deluge in records dating to at least the Roaring Twenties.

    The North Fork Kentucky River at Whitesburg, Kentucky, not only topped its all-time record from January 1957, but crushed it by over 6 feet Thursday.

    This was about 11 feet above flood stage, and about 9 feet above the level at which homes along the river begin to flood in this town in Letcher County near the border with southwestern Virginia.

    The river rose about 18 feet in 10 hours from midnight through 10 a.m.

    Normally, the river is only 1 to 2 feet deep, illustrating the danger of flash flooding on smaller rivers, creeks and streams.

    Then, late Thursday night, the North Fork Kentucky River at Jackson topped its previous record that had stood since Feb. 1939, almost 14.5 feet above flood stage. Earlier in the week, the river gauge was reporting a level of only around 2 feet.

    https://weather.com/storms/severe/news/2022-07-28-kentucky-flooding-rain-record-flood-facts
     
  18. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    So, a new record every 83 years. OK.
     
  19. Lee Atwater

    Lee Atwater Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Get used to it.

    Denver averages far more 100-degree days now than it did a century ago
    The reason? It's simple. A warming climate means 100-degree days are more than three times as likely as they were a century ago.
    https://www.9news.com/article/weath...enver/73-aa34af20-d614-4f1d-ba00-363ea2226969

    Record heat has gripped India since March. It’s about to get worse.
    March maximum temperatures were the highest in 122 years. Temperatures late this week could near April records.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2022/04/25/india-record-heat-march-april/

    Southern India’s 2016-2018 drought was the worst in 150 years
    https://india.mongabay.com/2021/05/southern-indias-2016-2018-drought-was-the-worst-in-150-years/

    World ‘at a crossroads’ as droughts increase nearly a third in a generation
    https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/0...1998 to 2017,to severe and prolonged droughts
    .
     
  20. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Just tub-thumping. Global temperature has been falling since 2016, and there's no climate-driven increase in drought.
     
  21. bringiton

    bringiton Well-Known Member

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    Because of urban heating and cherry picking: the previous warmest decade was 80-90 years ago, not 100 years ago.

    So it was hotter 122 years ago.

    So there was a worse one 150 years ago.
    Yet agricultural yields keep rising and hunger keeps falling because additional CO2 makes plants drought resistant.
     
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  22. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    [​IMG]
    Drought


    Droughts are Not Getting Worse

    Currently, The United States is benefiting from fewer and less extreme drought events as the climate modestly warms. In fact, in 2017 and 2019, the United States registered its smallest percentage of land area experiencing drought in recorded history. The United States is undergoing its longest period in recorded history with fewer than 40 percent of the country experiencing “very dry” conditions. And even the U.N. IPCC reports with “high confidence” that precipitation has increased over mid-latitude land areas of the Northern Hemisphere (including the United States) during the past 70 years, while IPCC has “low confidence” about any negative trends globally.
     
  23. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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  24. Lee Atwater

    Lee Atwater Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  25. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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