THE UKRAINIAN ARMY HAS BEEN DEFEATED. WHAT’S LEFT IS MOP-UP

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 1

Click here to read the full report.

Key Takeaways

• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko continued to set informational conditions to resist Russian pressure to enter the war against Ukraine.
• Russian forces continued efforts to defend against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued to make incremental gains around Bakhmut and to conduct offensive operations in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area.
• Russian forces continued to conduct defensive measures and move personnel on the east bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
• Russian military movements in Zaporizhia Oblast may suggest that Russian forces cannot defend critical areas amidst increasing Ukrainian strikes.
• Russian forces are holding reserves in Crimea to support defensive operations in Zaporizhia Oblast and on the east bank of the Dnipro River.
• The Kremlin’s financial strain continues to feed domestic unrest.
• Evidence persists regarding the continuation of partial mobilization in the face of low morale and high desertion rates amongst Russian troops.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin continued attempts to bolster the Wagner Group’s reputation.
• Russian occupation officials continued efforts to integrate occupied territories into the Russian financial and legal spheres.
• Russian forces continued to exploit Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure in support of Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. . . .

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Kreminna on December 1. The Russian BARS-13 combat reserve Telegram channel claimed that Ukrainian forces have increased ground assaults around the Kreminna area.[12] The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attack around Kreminna in the direction of Chervonopopivka (6km northwest of Kreminna).[13] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault near Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna).[14] One Russian source reported that Ukrainian forces made significant advances southwest of Chervonopopivka and expressed concern over the possibility that Ukrainian forces may reinforce their lines in the area in order to push through Russian defenses there.[15] Another Russian source claimed that a Russian drone had detected Ukrainian forces in Zhytlivka on the R66 highway to Kreminna.[16] A Russian milblogger also claimed that Russian forces are fighting in the western part of Bilohorivka, but did not provide evidence for this claim.[17] Hromov added that Ukrainian forces also repelled Russian assaults on Dibrova, approximately 5km southwest of Kreminna.[18] Russian and Ukrainian forces continued artillery fire in this area.[19] . . . .

Ukrainian officials continued to acknowledge that Ukrainian forces are conducting operations on the Kinburn Spit on December 1. Humenyuk stated that Ukrainian forces are continuing to conduct operations on the Kinburn Spit and that Ukrainian forces have not yet liberated the area.[46] ISW has previously assessed that Ukrainian forces would be better able to conduct potential operations on the left bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast from the Kinburn Spit.[47] . . .

 

ah, the psychobabble BS from the Pentagon....

 

GRU GUEST HOUSE: The folks at Bellingcat have done their typical excellent excavation of news to find fascinating facts. In the latest example, they look at the Russian husband and wife team (Sergey Skvortsov and Elena Koulkova) recently arrested in Sweden for allegedly spying for Moscow. It seems they were registered as the owners of a flat in Moscow that also happens to be the building where one of the Skripal attempted murder suspects lives, and the home of Major General Andrey Averyanov, head of a GRU unit connected to multiple assassinations and poisonings. Jeez. Tough neighborhood.

 

Believing Bellingcat is like believing everything on Wikipedia. Fools rush in where wise men fear to tread...

 

Thieves hate household alarm systems.

 

Well informed individuals know how propaganda works.....

 

Maybe so, but others default to ad hominem when they know they can't challenge the facts.

 

Bellingcat presents facts?

Bellingcat presents Pure Propaganda, pharmaceutical quality.

 

And again you avoid the facts under discussion.

 

You wish I did....

 

The data are here.
excellent excavation
This week, a Russian couple living in Sweden for the past 20 years were arrested, with the husband detained under suspicion of working for the Russian intelligence services. @christogrozev did some digging and made some interesting discoveries about their neighbours in Moscow. . . .

 

I don't want to create yet another Ukraine thread so I will just put this here. What are the real reasons which motivated the dictator Putin to invade Ukraine? Hint: It had absolutely nothing to do with mythical Nazis or NATO expansion which wasn't going to include Ukraine any time soon (as in decades ibto the future). It had all to do with Russia's weak hold on Crimea getting ever weaker even before Putin launched his war of aggression.

 

Poor Putler. Not even communist China wants the worthless Ruble. Seriously, China is refusing to accept Rubles and is demanding payments in Yuan, Dollars, or Euros. Everyone, even the communist Chinese know Rubles are worthless garbage. Hell, normally the communist Chinese don't even want their own currency because they know the CCP prints tons so the value is always going down but they are often forced to allow Russia to do business in Yuan because Russia cannot do business in either dollars or Euros so Yuan is all they can do it in. No one wants Rubles not even Russians.

 

Indeed

 

The Russians did not understand this thread.

They read that all that's left is the mop-up, so they started to clean up their own poop as they are scared shitless. And they should be too because pretty soon Judgement Day will come for the RuZZians and it will not be pretty.

 

Incessant repetition of falsehoods does not make them become true statements.

 

The data are the data. When you avoid them you do not make them less valid.

 

You sound like Anthony Fauci. Pure psychobabble.

 

Nope. Just presenting facts. And I take the Fauci comparison as a compliment. Thanks.

 

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 2

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways

• Russia is attempting to capitalize on the Western desire for negotiations to create a dynamic in which Western officials feel obliged to make preemptive concessions to lure Russia to the table.
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated as the basis for negotiations precisely the same demands that the Russian Foreign Ministry had made before the February 24 invasion, and Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitrii Peskov added the further demand that the West recognize Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territory.
• Russian forces still pose a threat to Ukrainian energy infrastructure despite the success of Ukrainian air defenses.
• Additional Western air defense systems are prompting the Russian pro-war community to question the Russian air campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure.
• Russian officials are setting conditions to negotiate the demilitarization of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), an agreement upon which Russia would likely renege and that would not eliminate or diminish the ongoing threat to the ZNPP.
• Ukrainian forces made localized breakthroughs southwest and northwest of Kreminna.
• Russian forces continued to make minimal advances in the Bakhmut area and conduct offensive operations in the Avdiivka–Donetsk City area.
• Russian forces may be struggling to properly allocate and deploy forces in rear areas in southern Ukraine due to Ukrainian strikes.
• Poor logistics, unruly mobilized personnel, and domestic protests continue to prevent the Kremlin from achieving the goals of partial mobilization.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to attempt to mask military development projects in occupied territories for no obvious reason. . . . .

Russia is attempting to capitalize on the Western desire for negotiations to create a dynamic in which Western officials feel pressed to make preemptive concessions to lure Russia to the negotiating table. Russian President Vladimir Putin held an hour-long telephone conversation with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on December 2 in which Putin falsely stated that Western financial and military aid to Ukraine creates a situation in which the Ukrainian government outright rejects talks between Moscow and Kyiv and called upon Scholz to reconsider Germany’s approach regarding developments in Ukraine.[1] Scholz stated that any diplomatic solution to the conflict in Ukraine must include the withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukrainian territory.[2] The Putin-Scholz call corresponded with a diplomatic overture from US President Joe Biden on December 1 in which Biden stated that he is prepared to speak with Putin if the Russian president is looking for a way to end the war, although Biden acknowledged that he has no immediate plans to do so.[3]

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded to Biden’s comments on December 2 stating that Biden seems to be demanding the removal of Russian forces from Ukraine as a precondition for negotiations and said that the “special military operation” would continue.[4] Peskov added that America’s reluctance to recognize Russia’s illegal annexation of Ukrainian territories significantly complicates the search for common ground in possible negotiations.[5] . . .

Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces made localized breakthroughs southwest and northwest of Kreminna on December 2. A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces made marginal advances in the forests south of Kreminna and have reached the outskirts of Chervonopopivka (about 10km northwest of Kreminna).[25] The milblogger added that Ukrainian forces have intensified their counteroffensives along the entire frontline and in the area of the Svatove-Kreminna highway. Luhansk Oblast Administration head Serhiy Haidai vaguely noted that Ukrainian forces are “very close” to Kreminna and stated that Ukrainian forces “visited” the Kreminska power substation in the vicinity of the settlement.[26] Haidai added that the weather is finally changing on the Svatove-Kreminna frontline, noting that Ukrainian forces will soon be able to improve their maneuvers as the mud fully freezes in the area.[27] . . .

 

It is difficult to take you seriously when you begin by calling Putin a dictator and the "weakness" you refer to has everything to do with NATO expansion ..... so your post is nothing but a circle jerk.

 

What I find really strange are US motivations regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine. They seem to contradict what many believe to be the case. US strategic concerns have more to do with the prospects of Russian servitude to China than with the status of Russian hegemony in Ukraine. Russia's actions in Ukraine make it highly unlikely relations with Western Europe will recover anytime soon (though this is the end-goal of US geopolitical strategy). China is in need of secure access to a supply of oil. Russia is just such a supply. China tends to think long term and all intelligence indicates Chinese plans are unfolding which will result in the economic enslavement of the Russian people. US geopolitical analysis indicated China would attempt to make inroads into Russia before it made a move on Taiwan. Once China gets its hooks into Russia, Russia will find itself unable to prevent China's economic strangle-hold over Russia. Chinese hegemony in Russia seems likely. Such is the case, US motivations regarding Russia were actually to prepare to defend Russia from the inevitable Chinese hegemony and enslavement of the Russian people under Chinese rule. Geopolitical simulations indicate the timeline is ever decreasing due to the missteps of the Putin regime on several fronts.

US strategy is therefore based on the need to end the conflict in Ukraine as soon as possible, by whatever means possible, so the US and Western Europe can accelerate the process of normalizing relations with Russia, and even increase measures to assist Russia through security agreements on its Western borders. The intent was to promote the ability of the Russians to stave off inevitable control by China. To accomplish this, Russia required the ability to sell its oil at elevated prices. The entire Russian economy rests on oil exports. If you are wondering why the US dramatically decreased domestic oil production, now you know why. Reducing domestic production in the US and importing oil was a means of putting pressure on the Chinese economy, while relieving the pressure on Russia to align itself under Chinese rule. This goal has not been entirely abandoned, though the situation in Ukraine and the decisions of the Putin regime have caused many US strategists to question whether such prospects are still obtainable.

Geopolitical analysis of the most viable path for Russia did not come to fruition. Instead of using the tools given to Putin to shore up Russia's economic defenses to Chinese encroachment he used it as an opportunity to fund incursions into Ukraine. Putin decided to apply his efforts to maintaining stability in Crimea (Sevastapol) through military force --- an intelligence misread as to the most likely actions Putin would take (analysts were split as to Putin's geopolitical acumen). Putin apparently has a 14th century mindset and failed to fully grasp the realities of modern-day geopolitics. He was posed with a choice between what he saw as alliance with Western enemies or Chinese enemies. Much like Stalin failed to realize in 1941 when he foolishly made a pact with Germany, Putin made a similar misstep regarding China. Though China is a different beast than Hitler's NAZI Germany. Chinese intent isn't military domination. They see no need to resort to direct conflict and think long-term. Instead, China prefers to foster the enslavement of Russia through economic encroachment. Some Western analysts still hold out hope they can convince Putin to reconsider his allegiance to his soon-to-be Chinese lords, but the numbers of such analysts are dwindling. This has left the US at a crossroads while they await a change in the Russian stance. It is entirely unclear what will result, as the ball is in Russia's court. Until Putin realizes the futility of his military efforts in Ukraine and is faced with increasing domestic hostility to the war at home it is unlikely resolution will be possible. When actions by Putin's regime indicate such realizations have matured the US will attempt to lead NATO towards a more normalized relationship with Russia, holding out an olive branch of security agreements on its Western borders. Only then can discussions regarding Russia's continued access to Sevastopol be proffered. The prospects for such an arrangement become increasingly strained the longer Putin takes to grab the branch. Russia's conduct of the war makes this all the more difficult due to the increasing levels of war crimes being committed on the battlefield. As time progresses, the ability of the US to influence Ukraine to allow continued Russian access to Sevastopol while (giving up Russian governance in Crimea) diminish. Only discussions will tell. Any agreement will depend on Ukraine, not the US or NATO.

The reality is, Russia has no need for border security through hegemony over its neighbors. It only needs peaceful relations with its neighbors to ensure security. There is little need for deployments along its Western border as NATO has no intent and indeed has no mechanism for unilateral invasion of Russia by any NATO nation. In fact, NATO charter precludes such actions by all its member nations. Picture the example of the US/Canada border. It is a 5,500-mile-long border, undefended for almost 250 years. This is 4 times the length of the NATO border with Russia even with the addition of Finland. Russian security forces could be deployed along its more vulnerable Southern and Eastern borders with China and Mongolia/Kamchatka. This would require a change in mindset from one of security through military force to economic security. Evidently something difficult to conceive as a result of Russia's history.

 

You are far too rational. Putin's motivation is nostalgia -- to restore the USSR. You are correct that the end result of his policy will be to make Russia a vassal of China; I'm not sure Putin is insightful enough to see that. He is, after all, just a dressed up lieutenant colonel. In the end, I suspect it will be necessary to break Russia rather than conciliate it.

 

this thread did not age well

 

Nope. It did not