The ECONOMY ,Stock Market, , & General Finance

Discussion in 'Economics & Trade' started by MiaBleu, Nov 24, 2020.

  1. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    This is a good report and had we got it a year ago, we wouldn't be in the mess we are in, but, Biden and the Dems could not resist funding a general strike by paying workers to sit home when it was time for them to return to work.

    We all know how some like to blameshift, but the voters are not fooled. They know who devalued their money through self-serving foolishness.

    [​IMG]
    Inflation is currency destruction.​
     
  2. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    Global inflation is a major problem, of course, but America's surge in employment is a good thing.

     
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  3. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    The report's a year late, shortages and runaway inflation have already set in. All this tardy report means now is that it will steel the Feds resolve to keep raising interest rates to destroy demand because Biden and the Democrats destroyed supply by paying workers to stay home. The result of the hikes, at some point will be layoffs.

    Biden and the Dems unnecessarily paying workers to stay home will result in forced layoffs. This report doesn't change that.
     
    Last edited: Apr 3, 2022
  4. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    You can opine that the surge in employment is a year late or two years late if you want to. (In January, 2020, it had been 3.6%. By January, 2021, it had ballooned to 6.3%.)
    But the current dramatic drop in unemployment is good news for Americans. It is now back down to 3.6%. According to some metrics, the labor market is now as robust as it has been since the late 1960s.
     
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  5. Chrizton

    Chrizton Well-Known Member

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    Except a maller percentage of the american population is looking for a job or receiving benefits. Our participation rates are trending in the wrong direction.
     
  6. (original)late

    (original)late Banned

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    Runaway inflation usually means double digit inflation... I've seen that, it wasn't fun.

    I am worried the Fed are about to repeat a mistake they made in the late 70s. Much of the inflation is exogenous; supply shortages from Covid are global, the fallout from Putin's war is global. If you increase interest rates in that sort of situation, it doesn't change inflation caused by events outside the country. Which isn't to say they shouldn't raise them a little, but I am worried they could slam the brakes on too hard.

    "High inflation in the United States basically reflects two forces.

    On one side, there’s a lot of disruption: rising oil and food prices (made worse by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine), snarled supply chains and so on. These factors are the reason inflation is way up everywhere, not just in America. For example, here’s Britain:

    [​IMG]

    On the other side, the U.S. economy is running very hot, with widespread labor shortages.

    So far, at least, there’s no sign of a third possible factor: inflation driven by entrenched expectations of inflation — in which businesses raise prices because they believe other businesses will raise prices. But that factor could emerge if inflation stays high, so prudence demands that we try to rein in prices now. And while the disruptions will fade over time (there are already hints of improvement in supply chains), it pains me to say that we can’t safely let the economy keep running this hot.

    And long-term rates reflect not just what the Fed has already done but also what it’s expected to do. The Fed’s pivot to inflation fighting has already sent long rates — especially mortgage interest rates — way up:

    If anything, I’m starting to worry that the Fed may find itself behind the curve as the economy cools off more rapidly than its board members seem to expect — will the unemployment rate really be only 3.5 percent at the end of this year?"

    Btw, I wrote the above before I saw Krugman's editorial..

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/29/...es-interest-rates.html?searchResultPosition=3
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2022
  7. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    In my memory, that seems to be their pattern.
    See, that's where I think I part ways with this take. Yes, we have widespread shortages, but, I don't agree that we are "running hot", though certainly we are not running well. Let me double check the Fed's Nowcast for real GDP. They are at 1.5% for the 1stQ, that's not "running hot", in my mind.

    https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

    The midline of the Blue Chip consensus is a just a bit over that, looks like maybe 1.6%.
    Material Costs, and shortages are requiring weekly updates of material prices in our bidding software.

    Cost of living bumps are 5% or you'll lose folks.

    Fuel budgets for this year were set in Sept and this spike was wholly unaccounted for.

    Not impossible and those of us who have run the whole cycle, like you seem to have, have certainly seen worse, but, this is as bad as we've seen in many moons, and Senator Warren might say.
    And property still seems to be moving well, though I could just be in a strong market.
    Though I've never seen the Fed get this right, even old timers have seen them try less than 5 times, which isn't a big enough set to form predictions, and logically there is no reason why they can't stick the landing. If I remember my numbers right, the 30 year mortgage is currently at 5%, which is a sharp increase, but, still 2% under the inflation rate, so still stimulatory.

    And on a gut level with that massive balance sheet they can unload at any pace they want, I really don't see how inflation can possibly get out of control, well, if it does, they allowed it to and they didn't have to. I think that supports your point, that we still are in an overall deflationary environment.

    As for how nimbly the Fed can move: Unless you watch this stuff closely, most people didn't catch on that the financial markets were in the midst of substantial liquidity stress before COVID dropped on the challenge like a two ton guerilla. As Trump's tariffs were going into effect, the Fed presumed that they would be inflationary and was moving to counteract that, they weren't and the Fed was caught on the wrong foot, but, what was encouraging to me was they didn't screw around denying the obvious, they promptly reversed course and started adding liquidity. So to bring it full circle, I presume that they at least want a neutral 30 year mortgage, they just bumped it up smartly, but, if the air starts coming out, maybe they could be below the neutral rate and still catch it right as inflation bleeds off.

    In my mind, it seems very doable, it bothers me that I've never seen them actually do it, but, I've only seen a small sample size and I remain hopeful.
    Were it up to me I would work to foster the following:
    1. Increase the supply of goods and services.
    2. Increase energy supplies
    3. Strengthen supply chains (stock more inventory and try to source more from the western hemisphere.)
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2022
  8. (original)late

    (original)late Banned

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    I don't have a problem with any of that, but we still have to wait and see which way the Fed jumps.
     
  9. Get A Job

    Get A Job Newly Registered

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    I suspect the Fed will raise rates 50 basis points three times by September.
     
  10. MiaBleu

    MiaBleu Well-Known Member

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    The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by half a percentage point, its largest move since 2000, as it tries to tame rapid inflation.

    The quick pullback of monetary help is a sign that the central bank is getting serious about cooling down the economy and job market as rapid inflation persists and as officials grow nervous that it could become more permanent.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/04/business/economy/fed-rate-decision-inflation.html
     
  11. MiaBleu

    MiaBleu Well-Known Member

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  12. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  13. Richard Franks

    Richard Franks Well-Known Member

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    We shouldn't worry about the stocks going down because it can't go down forever. It will rise again.
     
  14. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yes. The trick is to know when to invest, and for most people that time is "all the time" meaning you keep adding to your 401K in good times and bad. Europe is convinced they are headed into a recession, and US will probably follow so maybe now it still not a good time, but no one knows for sure.
     
  15. Richard Franks

    Richard Franks Well-Known Member

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    You got the idea right there.
     
  16. MiaBleu

    MiaBleu Well-Known Member

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  17. MiaBleu

    MiaBleu Well-Known Member

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    Car repossessions are on the rise in warning sign for the economy

    growing number of consumers have fallen behind on their car payments, a sign of the strain soaring car prices and prolonged inflation have had on household budgets. After auto repossessions tumbled at the start of the pandemic, when Americans got a boost from stimulus checks and lenders were more willing to accommodate those behind on payments, they now approach their prepandemic levels. Financial analysts worry this trend is only going to continue in 2023, with economists expecting unemployment to rise, inflation to remain relatively high and household savings to dwindle.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/ec...9NPQjxwVu3rHPBvYEtUkl6ozwqs3udX9X5jOANAEAAA==
     
  18. MiaBleu

    MiaBleu Well-Known Member

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    Yellen warns Congress: U.S. is on track to hit debt limit next week, must take ‘extraordinary measures’ to prevent default

    easury Secretary Janet Yellen warned House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Friday that the U.S. is on track to hit its debt limit next week.

    In a letter to the House GOP leader, Yellen said that the Treasury Department would begin taking “extraordinary measures” in order to avoid a potentially catastrophic default but urged Congress to take further action to raise or suspend the borrowing limit.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/co...4/OATgUXdvhqkUSEpt8Zm1BnU7uJ6f/YPmkVlSTABAAA=


    If they (both parties ) stopped quibbling ,arguing and accusing ........and grow up and start solving the problems before hey hit crisis . point. If businesses functined like the gov't...........no one would ever succeed.
     
  19. DEFinning

    DEFinning Well-Known Member Donor

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    Hey, give the Repubs a minute-- this Debt limit thing is not the only, urgently important issue on their plate. I mean, what should take precedence, over empowering a Committee to investigate the incredibly thorough work, just wrapped up by the J6 Committee, in order to throw some doubts over that whole thing-- as well as running interference for those Freedom Caucus members with criminal exposure, in the events surrounding the 2020 election and the Capitol riot, through Congressional intervention in the currently ongoing DOJ investigation?

    Then there are the recent Republican bills about providing immediate medical attention to fetuses that survive abortions, and enshrining the "Hyde Amendment," in statute, to prevent any federal funds being used for abortions.

    And the House could not do anything else, before they had done their half of the job of defunding the new IRS agents, which the last Congress just approved, to increase government receipts. Also, there was a bill passed to abolish the IRS, and establish a national sales tax, at 30%, which has no chance of becoming law.

    Plus, Matt Gaetz, who used to be identified with the investigation into his alleged sex trafficking of a minor (and stalking, & fraud), has now leapt up to become the epitome of Republican Representation, so if he says that defunding the Ukrainian resistance to Russia's invasion should be a top priority, who is qualified to dispute him? Janet Yellen? Pffft-- she's not even in Congress!

    Additionally, there has been a measure just sitting idle, since March, to start the ball rolling, on rolling back the 2019 House impeachment of President Trump. With all these rewritings of the past, for the House to get to, how can anyone seriously expect them to do anything about events that are only still in the present?



    P.S.-- and once they do get up to the present, McCarthy has made it clear that job #1 is to start investigating President Biden (I'm sure they'll come up with a host of reasons, to do so). So just relax-- can't you see how well Republican House members have things, under control?




     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2023
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  20. MiaBleu

    MiaBleu Well-Known Member

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    Well done.;-).........time for a glass of ......relaxing ..beverage ;-)
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2023
  21. MiaBleu

    MiaBleu Well-Known Member

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  22. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Interesting background.
    Influential paper linking recessions and left-wing voting patterns retracted
    [​IMG]
    Vox Efx via Wikimedia

    A highly cited economics paper that suggested people raised during recessions were more likely to vote for left-leaning political parties has been retracted, apparently due to a coding error that rendered the results invalid.

    The retraction marks a rarity among economics papers, which research has shown are infrequently retracted compared to papers on other subjects. The article appears to be the first in The Review of Economic Studies to have been retracted for a reason other than publisher error.

    The study’s authors, Paola Giuliano and Antonio Spilimbergo, are economists at the Anderson School of Management at the University of California, Los Angeles and the International Monetary Fund, respectively. Giuliano is also the Chauncey J. Medberry Chair in Management at UCLA.

    The paper, “Growing up in a Recession,” was published in November 2013. It has been cited 222 times, according to Clarivate’s Web of Science. Working papers from the World Bank and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development have also cited the article.

    Continue reading
     
  23. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    Threatening to destroy the good faith and credit of the United States unless McCarthy and his ideological kamikazes get spending cuts they refuse to identify is a nifty way to crush the thriving economy.
    • The February Jobs Report showed that the U.S. economy added more jobs than projected in the previous month, with payrolls growing by 517,000 compared to an expected 185,000
    • Wage growth was also strong, with increases of 4.4% year-over-year
    On February 3, 2023, the United States released its latest jobs report. Before the release, economists projected an increase of around 185,000 jobs. Instead, 517,000 jobs were added in January. This is the largest increase in the last six months and almost triple the expectation.

    Data for December was also revised upward. January’s report stated that the economy gained 223,000 jobs in December, but the February report noted that the economy gained 260,000 jobs in the final month of 2022.

    The report also noted unemployment falling to a more than 50-year low of 3.4% and a wage increase of .3% for an average year-over-year rise of 4.4%.

    This report indicates a far stronger labor market than expected. The greatest increases came in leisure and hospitality, with 128,000 jobs added. Despite this, leisure and hospitality payrolls are roughly half a million jobs below pre-pandemic levels.

    Other significant increases came in professional and business services, health care and government, which was partially helped by the return of striking university workers in California.

    Signs point toward continued strength in the labor market, with an average of 1.9 job openings for every unemployed person in the U.S.


    https://www.forbes.com/sites/qai/20...lls-offer-recession-insights/?sh=6b971c6159ee
     
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  24. DennisTate

    DennisTate Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Or..... Trump might back away from the political scene until Biden finishes his gambit of attempting to prepare Americans for his Biden Digital Currency?????



    Simply printing more and more money will not of and by itself set in motion extreme inflation.........

    in order to pull that off you have to also DECREASE PRODUCTIVITY!!!!
     
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2023
  25. MiaBleu

    MiaBleu Well-Known Member

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