The Looming Ukraine Debacle

It took Hitler FIVE MONTHS to overrun all of Ukraine.

After over two years, Putin holds about 20% of the Ukraine.
- Putin's initial armored thrust into Ukraine, headed to Kyev, ended up with miles and miles of tanks and APC's (BMP's, BRDM's, etc) lined up bumper to bumper that were decimated by US made JAVCELIN's
- Russia still can't establish air superiority over an enemy nation that has to borrow its own air force
- Components of the Russian Army have abandoned the front lines and threatened to attack Russian territory
- The Russian Air Force just shot down one of its own aircraft
- The Russian Navy has lost capital ships to a country that has no significant naval assets

Putin ain't doin' so good.

 

They can still conscript more, for a while. But if this war does continue into 2026 (which I doubt)? The Russian army won't be in much better shape, it will be walking into battle!

 

I agree but they are learning by doing. Its just that the 'lesson's cost them most of their elite troops and two thirds (or more) of their most modern equipment. The Russian army now? Properly equipped would be a force to be reckoned with if for no other reason than they've survived. Fortunately that's not likely to happen. Russia can't produce enough first rate equipment to replace its losses. At least not for 5-7 years (at best) according to estimates I've seen. So the issue is really Putin dragging this war out because he thinks the west is going to tire of it. And he's right, that could happen. The thing to do therefore is not tire of it. If the west can keep the pressure on him into the second half of 2025 IMO he's going to start thinking about a negotiated settlement. (At the rate he's burning through his cold war stockpiles crunch time is mid 2026.) And if he makes a half way decent offer? The west will make Zelenskyy take it, because if he doesn't?

 

Some axiomatic words of wisdom:
"Unoccupied enemy territory is STILL enemy territory"
"No war has ever been won from the air without the use of nuclear weapons"
"I entered Kuwait with 52 tanks. After 100 days of Coalition bombing I had 50. After 20 minutes against American M1 tanks I had none.... Iraqi Tank Battalion Commander"

Some comments:
- Whatever happens, materiel' production rates in 2030 are largely irrelevant. By that time we'll either be happy, dead or speaking Chinese, eating crumbs from our masters' table. (Personally, I believe it all comes to head soon. Every day that Biden remains in power we get weaker and our enemies will wait to see us bottom out. When Biden leaves office... we get hit.)
- Manufacturing military systems isn't like manufacturing kitchenware. It's a long process. The fairly straightforward design and assembly of artillery shells is poor example. I have walked the mile long building outside of Ft Worth where F-16's were built. From raw materials entering one end and an F-16 coming out the other end, took a year.
- Calling HIMAR "old" brings a tear to my eye. It was the original version, MLRS, that replaced my beloved M110A2 8" (nuclear capable) heavy artillery. I Commanded an M110A2 battery in Germany in the 1980's.

Commentators do vex me. "Commentators" are usually journalists that wouldn't know an M16 from an M11.

"You shouldn't underestimate an enemy, but it is just as fatal to overestimate him." George Patton

I do not believe that Xi's goal of global conquest will be deterred by any domestic issue. America has never been this weak, disorganized, and chaotic. Such an opportunity may never present itself to our enemies again.

 

China loves watching Russia and the west "burn through their war stocks.
"“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
"“The greatest victory is that which requires no battle.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
The war in Ukraine will end when China decides it has nothing more to gain from draining Russia and the west dry.

Then other wars will start.

 

War with communist China would mostly be a naval and air war and none of our stocks from those areas have been effected. With the exception of 155mm artillery shells everything given to Ukraine has been old stuff we either decommissioned or which were at the end of their shelf life. Possible other exceptions might be stronger missiles from the 1980s and anti-tank manpads from the 1990s.

 

I can only repeat the points I made earlier. The build up, if not the 'go' order for an invasion would be detected long before it happens. Xi has enough on his plate to deal with at the moment without adding more worries (and a war with the US will gut the Chinese economy make no mistake). And the US, its NATO allies and it's pacific allies are al busy re-arming. I will add though that quoting Sun Tzu doesn't make an invasion of Taiwan any easier or more likely.

 

Waaay to much to deal with right now. Except to say your taking a Chinese invasion of Taiwan as a given without providing any evidence to support that claim.

 

Uhmmmm... "MANPADS" stands for "MAN Portable Air Defense System". The term came into use when the old REDEYE Air Defense System was still in use. Stinger is MANPADS. MANPADS has nothing to do with any anti-tank system. JAVELIN, which IS an anti-tank system can be referred to as an ATGM (Anti-Tank Guided Missile).
We have given Ukraine state-of-the art systems like Stinger (RMP), JAVELIN, Patriot PAC-3, and M1A2 Abrams tanks... all the most modern in our inventory, in use with US forces all over the world.

And as for Taiwan... "No war has ever been won from the air without the use of nuclear weapons"
(The most deadly, feared and widely deployed weapon in the US inventory is the American Soldier. Unoccupied enemy territory is STILL enemy territory. Until an America Soldier stands on the enemy objective, the war is not won.)

 

Our enemies are sneaky little btards. They can easily disguise their intentions prior to attack. Doing this has been common practice for centuries. Did you miss this?
The Top-Secret WWII Unit That Fooled the Nazis | HISTORY

“There is no greater danger than underestimating your opponent.”
― Lao Tzu

 

I take nothing "as a given". All I can do is what everyone else does... "Fire best data". (artillerymen will remember that phrase)

Nothing can ever be a "given". Gen Norman Schwartzkopf used to tell a story that went something like this:

"War is like a ballet. You get the cast together and practice. Then you practice. Then you practice some more. Finally, when every move is down solid and everyone knows every detail of their part, you get your costumes on and have a dress rehearsal. It all comes out wonderfully. War is like that.

Except on opening night, some guy with a bayonet jumps out of the orchestra pit and starts killing all the people on stage."

His point? NOTHING IS A "GIVEN"

 

In fact, Batum is already Turkish city Independent from Russia is very expensive think. You have to pay for it with your territory

 

It's late. I am too old for that.

 

I think you live on other side of Earth. Against you would know that the the USA is not sitting. They are dying. Together with Europe.

 

FYI I was a (reserve) gunner back in the day. That said (in response to both of your last two posts) yes, all of those truisms have value. But! No, they are not 'evidence' of anything!

Xi may want to order an invasion of Taiwan but 'wanting' and 'doing' are two entirely different things.The US and all of it's other democratic allies (including those in Asia) have two main ideological opponents, Russia and China. Neither has the ability to break us unless we give it to them!

Russia? Has an economy one tenth the size of America's (and also one tenth the size of the EU. Which BTW is just another reason to keep the alliance strong). China? Has a large, strong economy but that economy is also completely dependent on selling goods to the West. (True fact BTW) Unlike the US domestic consumption of goods and services in China is a small fraction of total output.) And it's kind of hard to sell consumer products to your major customers if you declare war on them (or to close allies like Taiwan).

The point is though that for all of their bravado neither country can 'win' unless we collectively choose to believe their lies and let them win. The solution? Don't let them win.

 

Really? That will be news to them. Why don't you write to someone and tell them that the US and the EU are 'dying". (Compared to Russia of course which has an economy one twentieth the size of the US and the EU combined!) Not to mention Japan, Korea and the rest of the developed western economies of course.

So keep telling yourself Russia is winning. Although it might be a tad hard to explain why so many educated and/or wealthy Russians fled the country as soon as the war broke out. Perhaps they don't share your optimism? That or they're happy to let the 'peasant's' die for the glory of the 'Rodina' while they stay all warm and cozy in the decadent west. Go figure!

When are you enlisting BTW?

 

Guy, did you visit ever Russia or you read just your propaganda?

 

No. I just reviewed the economic statistics (which don't lie). And you haven't answered the question. When are you enlisting?

 

I think you are missing my point. I see China as running the game. They are feeding Russia arms and support, knowing it will keep Russia going in the Ukrainian conflict. So far, they have watched as Biden pumps billions and billions in military support to Ukraine. Ukraine itself has little economic or strategic value to China. My opinion (and mine is as good as yours) is the China is playing off Russia and the west (NATO and the USA) against each other. China's INTENT is to have Russia and the west deplete their military and economic resources is a meaningless conflict that will leave both of them "ripe for the picking" when the dust settles. When the conflict ends (no matter if Russia or the west wins). China will be in a great position to start its planned expansion into Taiwan and the Pacific Rim.

This eliminates both the USA and Russia as opponents and reduces them to "speed bumps" in its march for global control.

Germany isolated themselves from most industrialized nations in both WWI and WWII and took the economic hit. YET THEY ATTACKED. Countries do that. Economies are much more important during peacetime than during wartime.

 

Complete BS. Don't know why you people keep claiming stuff like that.

 

Denial is not a river in Africa.

 

An Mi-24 was shot down over Crimea this morning...all crew died. "The possibility of friendly fire is being investigated"??

I say Kudos to each member of the AA crew and a case of vodka should be in order for each of them....more incidents like this should be encouraged?

 

Shouldn't you be at the front?

Your "starshiy braht" needs your help in Donbas.

 

OK. I have no an interest to discuss with you.

 

Don't rule out sabotage or "friendly fire". Kyiv has apparently denied targeting the thing.
Cannon fodder becomes very antiwar through attrition.

US 'humiliates Putin' and gives Ukraine thousands of weapons seized from Iran as Russia's losses top 450,000
Irish Star on MSN.com|5 hours ago
The US has provided Ukraine with thousands of machine guns, rocket launchers, and sniper rifles, as well as hundreds of thousands of rounds of ammunition seized from Iran, officials have said.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...an-as-russia-s-losses-top-450-000/ar-BB1lol8v