The Looming Ukraine Debacle

Ukraine and our European allies are rapidly increasing their ability to manufacture every kind of military hardware within the borders of Ukraine.

Ukraine, UK Sign Agreement to Cooperate on Arms Production
U.S. News & World Report
7 hours ago
KYIV (Reuters) - Ukraine and Britain have signed a framework agreement to cooperate in the defence and arms production sector, officials said in Kyiv, part of a wartime effort to build up Ukraine's domestic weapons industry by working with allies.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/a...ign-agreement-to-cooperate-on-arms-production

Relying on "strategic partnerships" to produce critical weapons systems is a failed approach.
That approach can be easily interrupted by internal political opportunism.

 

That is a good approach to take as it strengthens Ukraine itself independent of what the west does.

 

War is a very effective teacher, but it costs more than an 'arm and a leg' through trial and error.

Russia 'knew where we were going to attack,' Zelenskyy says in reflection on why Ukraine's big counteroffensive stumbled
Business Insider India on MSN.com
|21 hours ago
Ukraine's counteroffensive last year didn't achieve its objectives, in part because the Kremlin knew the plans, Zelenskyy said.
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/worl...nes-big-counteroffensive-stumbled/ar-BB1lm0QC

Leaders of nations should never feel confidant that it has any secure national secrets.

"Three may keep a secret, if two of them are dead." Benjamin Franklin

 

Really?
Moscow 2024


Los Angeles 2024

 

Agreed Los Angeles is a cess pool.

 

Claiming Moscow and St. Petersburg are the RF is like claiming that Georgetown and Beverly Hills are the USA.

 

40% of Russians don't even have indoor plumbing.

 

Have you seriously never seen the movie "Spiderman" directed by Sam Raimi?
That's J.K. Simmons, a wonderful character actor, playing "J. Jonah Jameson", seen here mocking Peter Parker because he 1) doesn't know that editors pick the titles, not writers or photogs and 2) wants extra pay as a freelancer.

On to your remarks:
WTF are you even saying here man?

Really?

I was born here, unlike you, I don't think I'll be leaving.

 

Lol, you actually buy that?

 

Firstly, all the sources I've checked including Ukrainian ones report the increased presence of Chinese made equipment on the battlefield but not armaments. There are also reports of some Chinese made components being recovered. Apparently the equipment is mostly basic stuff like uniforms, boots, ballistic vests and possibly some rifles. What those the reports are not finding are Chinese made weapon systems or munitions. NK munitions? Sure. Chinese ones. Not noticeably.

That indicates XI is, has been and as as far as anyone can tell? Will continue to play a careful game. Given China's current economic problems? He does not want more sanctions imposed on Chinese trade because of arms deliveries to Russia. At the same time he does want all the cheap oil and gas that Russia is so desperate to sell him. That and increased influence over Russia the war is giving him due to it's newfound dependence on trade with China. So at the moment he and China are in a 'win, win' position as far as this war goes i.e. they're getting all the benefits that come from it (such as they are) with none of costs. And when its over? China will the top dog in the partnership. This war has been good to China.

For the rest? Ukraine has significant resources and capacity for wealth generation one the war is over and it manages to integrate into the EU (NATO membership may or may not be on the cards depending on whether it used as a sop to appease Putin). But regardless of that Ukraine will sign unilateral defense treaties with the West and rearm itself with western equipment. So the additional military capacity it will add to the alliance (along with Finland and Sweden) means Russia's ability to threaten western Europe in the future will be severely constrained. Especially since Europe is now rearming. In the next few years? That frees up even more US resources for it's pivot to the Pacific.

As for 'tricking' the US and its allies into depleting its armaments? You need to get over this fixation. US arsenals of naval and air based strike weapons are intact and rising. The only sector with a temporary shortfalls is as I have noted before are some artillery and (some) man portable systems like mortars and antitank/air weapons. The US air force is 'fully stocked' and so is the US navy. If there was a land bridge connecting Taiwan to the mainland? You might have a point. There isn't. And as I noted ALL of the systems where there have been shortfalls hare seeing massive expansion in production. As I said 155mm artillery shells? Production will have tripled from pre-war rates by the start of 25 and will have gone up 6 fold by 30. Similar production increases are happening for everything else to. And not just in the US . All its allies are doing something similar.

So if China is planning to invade Taiwan and it truly doesn't care how many of its ships get sunk in the process? Then there's no better time for it to invade than now. Because it's only going to get harder over the next few years. And also again? Currently there's zero sign of it preparing to invade.

Produce some evidence that China is preparing to invade shortly? Then you've definitely got a case. Until then?

 

But it is true. You coul find many news about it. For example this
https://www.rbc.ru/politics/21/02/2022/621389849a794724e81ee873?ysclid=luuvrczs9b922655762
Use the translater for reading. This is a source that is paid by your government so one can't write false And there are a lot of such news BEFORE we had decided stopping it. There were human casualties.

 

Got to give Ukraine that funding, if we provide the treasure they'll provide the blood.

 

[QUOT

Most of what you sat is as plausible as other opinions. The one thing I would disagree with is your analysis of weapons production. Saying weapons production (which includes Apache helicopters, Hellfire missiles, etc.) is adequate and using 155mm shell production as proof is akin to saying hospital equipment manufacturing (which includes MRI and CAT scan equipment) is up to snuff and using tongue depressor manufacturing as proof. Its simply not that simple. It takes over a year to actually produce a combat aircraft. Probably twice that if you include the contracting and component acquisition efforts. And each contract is for finite numbers. Then it all starts over again.

And our stocks of warfighting equipment are being depleted.
- The Dangerous Depletion of U.S. Weapon Arsenals | Proceedings - August 2022 Vol. 148/8/1,434 (usni.org)
- U.S. could face possible weapons shortage as it continues to supply military aid to Ukraine, war game shows - CBS News
- ‘No company is immune’: Supply chain woes weigh on defense firms (defensenews.com)
- Pentagon scrambles to replenish weapons stocks sent to Ukraine - POLITICO
- Experts: U.S. Military Chip Supply Is Dangerously Low - EE Times
- Supply shortages threaten US infrastructure, military defense (nypost.com)

I'll have to do some research on "indications" about China's invasion of Taiwan. We all know that that all significant military attacks are always preceded by obvious signs that the attack is about to happen. The attacking country always let's the world know it's coming, the preparations are always obvious and no attack can ever be a total surprise.

We learned that at Pearl Harbor... right?

 

Why are we involved in Ukraine? Do we need their microchips? (Wait, that's Taiwan..) Do we need to defend a fellow NATO teammate? (Wait... they are not NATO...)
Why are we spending BILLIONS supporting Ukraine's border while leaving our own wide open?

 

Quickly, (because I have some stuff to do if but I can? I'll try to get back later in more detail. That said. I have always referenced systems provided to Ukraine, not other systems the US might be short of. As an example? America has never provided Apaches or Hellfire missiles to Ukraine. So if there are shortages of those specific systems? It can't be laid at the feet of Ukraine. Basically? It's a domestic problem.

Enjoying the debate BTW.

 

True, we've never given Apaches or Hellfires to Ukraine. But we have given M1A2 tanks which are very sophisticated gizmos. Stinger (RMP) and JAVELIN's are too. Stingers have some crystal components which are very long lead items too.

 

Why are you (and others so obsessed with having the U.S. military secure the U.S. border?

Once again, border security of the U.S. IS NOT THEIR JOB!!!

 

I never said anything about using US service members anywhere, My statement was about the idiocy of spending billions of DOLLARS defending Ukraine's borders while leaving our own wide open. I never said anything about using "the U.S. military" anywhere.

 

The "far right" in Europe tends to lean toward national socialism. It popped up all over Europe right before the last world war.

The Guardian
The pro-Putin far right is on the march across Europe – and it could spell tragedy for UkraineWith Slovakia the latest member to elect a Russia-leaning leader, the EU is increasingly open to hostile interference, says Chatham House's Armida van Rij.
41 minutes ago
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...-far-right-europe-ukraine-eu-slovakia-russian

 

As a side note Xi has publicly ordered the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. So we have a bit of time but not a lot.

 

Yawn, the goof balls over at the Guardian consider everyone to the right of Stalin to be "far right".

 

So well after the first invasion by Russia and after Russia had amassed their invading force for their second fascist invasion. Got it.

 

It can also be interrupted by HE weapons, including Kinzhal missiles.

 

All of the Big Government factions are on the brown end of the color spectrum. Hence the Hitler/Stalin Pact.

"But there were great similarities between a certain type of left wing intellectual and fascist intellectuals..." S. J. Woolf, THE NATURE OF FASCISM, p. 249.

Real Reds who still believe the state should "wither away" remain very different from real Fascists/National Socialist who reject the democratic process entirely and embrace the totalitarian Big Bad Government Forever model with enthusiasm.

 

Solution: many smaller arms factories -- underground.