The Looming Ukraine Debacle

Trump is leading the effort to undermine Ukraine, and he has enlisted his lickspittles in the GOP house in aid of helping the Russians win.

 

Is this thread al Russian trolls? Sure looks like it.

 

You don’t find strategic advantage.

How about this

One Russian man dies on the field of Ukraine, it takes 18 years to replace, and one US tank loses on the battel field of Ukraine, which takes 3 months to replace.( FDR said something similar to this about Germany)

 

Yawn. You are just unable to even understand viewpoints that are different from yours, huh?

 

Only a handful of Abrams and there are more than 3000 in reserve. Stingers and Javelins? True, they are the other key items (apart from 155 shells) that has been given in quantity and proved to be highly effective along with intelligence of course which is (mostly) a sunk cost because the assets are in place anyway. But in the case of the man portable missiles? Like I said production of Javelins has been ramping up and will hit 4000 p.a. in a couple of years while Stinger is being replaced. So those are the only key systems that have been run down below desirable levels. Note desirable stocks have not been exhausted. Like I said previously, China only has a narrow window when even those shortages will be an issue.

 

You think we have "years"? I don't.
"The assets" are NOT in place. Our stocks have been depleted by Ukraine. The level of stockage is based on funding. That funding is determined by national policy decisions like being able to fight a single front or two front war. Those types of decisions are used to determine the specific numbers of items required. All of that is presented to Congress for funding justification. The military rarely gets as much funding as they ask for.

 

I 'think' that so far there's no evidence China will invade Taiwan this year and probably not even next year. I 'think' any attempt to do so will be telegraphed well in advance & quite visibly due to the sheer scale and complexity of such an operation (akin to Operation Overlord). And I 'think' most of the weapons we would need to assist Taiwan (if that's what America and it's Pacific allies are going to do) are not the same as the ones we have and are giving to Ukraine. Finally I 'know' the US is making great efforts to replenish its stocks of the few systems it is short off. So in the absence of any proof that an invasion is imminent and the presence of sound economic reasons why China would not want to invade right now? Ukraine has a higher priority.

The thing is Russia has invaded Ukraine whereas China might invade Taiwan at some unspecified time in the future. One is the reality we have to live with and respond to, the other is just a possibility, we plan for.

 

As I said earlier, there was no evidence that Japan would attack Pearl Harbor until the Arizona was sunk. Underestimating your enemy is the worst thing you can do, I believe that the attack will come this year because Biden has weakened us in every way the Chinese would want. Our military is at its weakest point in decades. Its equipment is running low due to Ukraine and we can't even meet recruiting goals. National support of military action is so low that people scream "DEATH TO AMERICA!" right here at home. So not only is our military weak, but our national will to use it is questionable at best.

Wete short on Stingers and Javelins, which are EXACTLY what Taiwan would need to repel an invader. Stingers won't be replenished. It takes over a year to do that and there would be little motivation to do that with its replacement, "The Army no longer builds new Stinger missiles; it refurbishes old ones." (US Army pursues faster, more survivable Stinger missile replacement (defensenews.com)... and our existing stocks of Stingers are running low.

"The United States has been buying Javelins at the rate of about 1,000 a year. The maximum production rate is 6,480 a year, though it would likely take a year or more to reach that level. The delivery time is 32 months; that is, once an order is placed, it will take 32 months before a missile is delivered. This means that it will take about three or four years to replace the missiles that have been delivered so far. If the United States delivers more missiles to Ukraine, this time to replace extends." (Will the United States Run Out of Javelins Before Russia Runs Out of Tanks? (csis.org) And, by the way, the US military isn't capable of meeting its rr

But the main issue is not just the weakened condition of the military due to personnel shortages, we can't meet recruiting goals, so we're short on people too.
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"US military in decline, threats from China ‘formidable,’ report says" - US military in decline, threats from China ‘formidable,’ report says (defensenews.com)

"US military rated as ‘weak,’ may not be able to win one war, as tensions grow with China, Russia" - US military rated as ‘weak,’ may not be able to win one war, as tensions grow with China, Russia (nypost.com)

Navy Approaching ‘Weak’ Rating in New U.S. Military Strength Survey - Navy Approaching 'Weak' Rating in New U.S. Military Strength Survey - USNI News

So our military is growing weaker. Afghan clearly demonstrated our unwillingness to fight, if not our outright national cowardice. It emboldened Putin, et al.

We get weaker every day Biden is in office and China knows it. China will probably never have an opportunity like this again... and they know it.
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"The parallels between 9/11 and Pearl Harbor are striking. In each instance there were warning signs before the attack, and in each instance our government failed to connect the dots."
Diane Watson

THAT"S TWO. ARE WE ABOUT TO GO FOR THREE?

 

The points you raise relate to the overall size of the US Defense budget not the (small) proportion spent on arming Ukraine. Not arming Ukraine won't fix them, in fact it won't even come close to doing so. Big picture? Arming Ukraine is largely irrelevant to those issues. Previous spending on Ukraine was comparable to about 3% of the annual US Defense budget and most of the equipment donated was a sunk cost (old stuff already bought and paid for and put in storage as surplus).

 

The bulk of the defense budget is for pay and allowances, benefit and pensions. The 2024 defense budget includes $157 Billion for procurement (complete breakdown at (Military budget of the United States - Wikipedia). The $40+ Billion we will send to Ukraine this year is a hellava lot more of those procurement dollars than the 3% you claim.

 

Perhaps, perhaps not. I'll have to ask an army logistics/procurement expert of my acquaint for a breakdown. The fact remains however that any shortfalls in few specific systems being provided to Ukraine wont 'touch the sides' when the looking at deficiencies in the big ticket capital items you listed like shortages in ships and aircraft etc. I also note that China's military while large has zero combat experience and unlike the US it does not have allies like Korea, Japan and numerous others that have a vested interest in not seeing China push out into the Pacific.

 

To stop Putin invading Europe and overthrowing democracy? You should spend billions on both, surely you can reach a compromise?

 

I doubt our modern combat experience which is largely based on counter-insurgency would be much good in a conventional air/naval war against China? China's military capacity is huge, a massive population and military industrial complex. This is why we have spent so much effort getting India on our side.

 

Yet they are struggling to meet recruitment levels even during a period when they suffer from 20% plus youth unemployment. In reality? Very few Chinese actually want to serve in military. The pay is relatively poor, service is onerous and housing poor. On top of that once recruited your banned from traveling outside of China without the express approval of the Chinese Government while on leave (true fact)! Young Han Chinese also detest being stationed in the remote far western provinces and Himalayas.

Beyond that and importantly the senior Chinese officer corps have zero combat experience. Not so the senior the US. Nor do the current generation of younger soldiers have anyone to 'test their metal' against. The US trains regularly with all it allies. The NATO nations, Japan, Korea, Australia? They are all well equipped, well motivated opponents who make American soldiers 'work' for their victories in training exercises. China? Has Russia, full stop. And look how well Russia has done in their most recent war! Even worse? Until Ukraine China based its military doctrines on Russian templates (and has so for decades), simply because it has no other model to use. Now? They have zero indigenous experience to go off and no other allies with combat experience worth a dam to use as an alternative. So they're stuck!

I'm not saying China shouldn't be taken seriously as a military threat BTW. Just that it's easy to underestimate how valuable the combat and operational experience gained by the US soldiers and their allies in inflict zones over the past 30 plus years has been for (now) senior US officers and NCOs. Chinese soldiers have literally never seen 'the elephant'. All they have is 'theory'.

On top of that? Don't underestimate that advantage or for that matter the US lead in critical technology. China steals and emulates. In general? It doesn't innovate, at least not nearly as well or comprehensively as the US does.

 

I'll leave out the recent history of Putin's invasion of Chechnya. Eerily reminiscent of Hitler in the 1930's taking Rhineland, Austria, Czechoslovakia, and then Poland.

In 2008 Putin had a tantrum at the NATO summit in which Georgia and Ukraine were to become NATO members. Putin got up and read a scathing speech threatening to use nukes if Georgia and Ukraine were invited to join NATO. Angela Merkel coward away, appeased Putin and obtained his promise not to invade Georgia or Ukraine in exchange for delaying the 2 nations entry into NATO. Two months later Putin invaded Georgia. Followed by the same in 2014 and 2022. History does indeed have a way of repeating itself until we learn the lessons it teaches. The time to continue appeasing Putin is well over. This is why we need to support Ukraine. We should have done so in 1999 when he blew up his own people as an excuse to invade Chechnya.

 

ukraine's democracy was overthrown in 2014 with coordination by the state department and the CIA.....a violation of the famous 'Budapest Memorandum' so many refer to here. Now there are no elections in ukraine, as well as no freedom of speech, religion and a host of other things. Great job CIA.

 

Well, while we're on the topic of the CIA, - Chechnya .

Can we first just dig out a map of Russia and learn that Chechnya is part of Russia? Yes, Chechnya is part of Russia. Furthermore, South Ossetia is not part of Russia.

 

Uhhh.... No. Chechnya was an independent republic invaded by the RF. The pretense for the Putin invasion of Chechnya was a false flag operation conducted by Putin.

 

You are wrong. Chechnya was and is part of Russia, one of the Republics. Back 1990s it was full of terroristic ****, so Putin was doing the right thing when he kick all the **** out of there.
Later Chechnya was fully rebuilt and Grozny is now a very nice city. As for Georgia, it is not Russia that attacked Georgia, it is Georgia that attacked South Ossetia, which in turn called Russia for help and then the conflict was quickly finished.

 

Whatever narrative justifies bloody conquest and oppression, right?

 

The only people saying this are the fascists next door trying to destroy Ukraine entirely and absorb it into their fascist Reich. I like how you seem to be completely oblivious to the raging hypocrisy of this too.

 

Quite gullible. One of Putin's Oligarchs gave a press conference in which he read off the FOUR apartment buildings targeted by your supposed Chechen terrorists. Only problem was, only THREE bombings had yet to occur. He announced the FOURTH one BEFORE it occurred. Shortly thereafter when reporters went to the site to investigate a 4th target they were unaware of, 4 men were loading bags of explosive powder into the basement of this same pre-announced target. The white powder and the detonators all matched the previous 3 bombings Putin was blaming on Chechnya. The 4 men were arrested and turned out to be close friends of Putin during his KGB days in Dresden. Putin had them released without so much as a hearing. They later became quite wealthy oligarchs under Putin. It was a false flag operation designed to give Putin and excuse to invade Chechnya. And completely bungled at that. Western journalists were stunned Putin was able to get away with it. Russians are censored and gullible.

 

Who could talk last is the US who shelled Belgrad in 1999 to the ground. People in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.

 

More of the same from you. You don't want to face the awful reality of what your country is doing to Ukraine right now, so you prefer false narratives like this one as justification. You feel powerless to stop the evil, so better to deny and deflect from it.

 

Yes, I know this version about the explosions of the houses in Moscow. There was even a film about it. This version was promoted by Boris Berezovsky, one of the Russian oligarchs. From my point of view this is just a speculation, same sort of that it was CIA that had organized attacks in the US on 11.09 2001 to justify invasion of the US in Iraq. As far as Chechnya is concerned the invasion was promoted not only by the explosions, but more by the large scale invasion of terrorists from Chechnya to Dagestan one month prior to the explosions.