Running Newsticker for the War in Ukraine

Putin has left Russia's Eastern rear fully exposed for the convenience of the RF's enemies.
Armenia has become a bullseye on a very big undefended Russian butt.

 

It's getting close to the time to put up or shut up.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 10, 2024

Click Here to Read the Full Report
Key Takeaways:

• The Ukrainian military’s effective use of drones on the battlefield cannot fully mitigate Ukraine’s theater-wide shortage of critical munitions.
• Zelensky stated that there are no mitigations for insufficient air defense systems and indicated that Russian strikes are forcing Ukraine to reallocate already scarce air defense assets to defend Kharkiv City.
• Zelensky warned about the threat of a potential future Russian ground offensive operation targeting Kharkiv City, which would force Ukraine to reallocate some of its already-strained manpower and materiel capabilities away from other currently active and critical sectors of the front.
• The Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada considered and adopted provisions from Ukraine’s draft mobilization law on April 10 as part of an ongoing effort to increase the sustainability of Ukrainian mobilization over the long term.
• Russian officials continue to indicate that they are not interested in any meaningful negotiations on the war in Ukraine amid Switzerland’s announcement that it will host a global peace summit on the war on June 15 and 16.
• Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov attempted to downplay tension in Armenian-Russian relations amid Armenia’s continued efforts to distance itself from political and security relations with Russia.
• Russian Investigative Committee Head Alexander Bastrykin claimed that Russia has no economic reason to import foreign labor, a direct contradiction of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent efforts to justify Russia’s current migration laws to his xenophobic ultra-nationalist constituency.
• Russian forces recently captured Ivanivske, a settlement east of Chasiv Yar, and advanced near Avdiivka.
• Eight Russian senators and 16 State Duma deputies submitted a bill to the Russian State Duma that would likely allow Russian authorities to deploy Russian Federal Penitentiaries Service (FSIN) employees to Ukraine, amid reports that Russia is intensifying its crypto-mobilization efforts. . . .

Ukrainian forces reportedly recently struck several Russian frontline command posts amid continued positional fighting in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on April 10 that Ukrainian forces repelled several Russian ground attacks against Ukrainian positions near Krynky in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast.[78] A Russian Telegram channel claiming to be an employee of an unspecified branch of Russian special services claimed on April 9 that Ukrainian forces struck a drone command post of the Russian 205th Motorized Rifle Brigade (49th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) near Kakhovka on April 5.[79] The Telegram channel also stated that Ukrainian forces conducted a HIMARS strike against the command post of an unspecified Russian unit, likely another element of the Russian 49th CAA, near Olhyne on April 6, killing three Russian servicemen, wounding another serviceman, and damaging two Russian vehicles. ISW has not observed footage of the claimed strikes and cannot independently verify the Telegram channel’s claims. . . .

 

He is one of my favored, Prof Keulpp, war economist. He puts the figures together. War is numbers.
Englis under title available

Panzer und Raketen: Wie lange kann Putin die Ukraine terrorisieren? | Marcus Keupp bei ZDFheute live (youtube.com)

 

Putin's foolishness has significantly weakened Russia's position and future prospects.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 11, 2024

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces conducted another large-scale series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of April 10 to 11 that caused notable and likely long-term damage to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
• Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated that Ukraine needs more Patriot air defense batteries to protect both Ukraine’s population centers and frontline areas.
• The Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada adopted a new mobilization law on April 11, a significant step in addressing Ukraine’s manpower challenges amid growing manpower constraints in Ukrainian units defending on the frontline.
• US European Command (EUCOM) Commander and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) General Christopher Cavoli reported that EUCOM and NATO are strengthening their ability to respond to the “chronic threat” that Russia poses to global stability and European security in hopes of deterring future Russian aggression against NATO.
• Ukraine and Latvia signed a bilateral security agreement on April 11 providing for long-term Latvian assistance and security commitments to Ukraine.
• Russian authorities conducted a counterterrorism operation and reportedly killed two suspected terrorists in the Republic of Kabardino-Balkaria on April 11.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna, in the direction of Chasiv Yar west of Bakhmut, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on April 11.
• Russian exiled opposition outlet Novaya Gazeta Europe reported on April 11 that Russian courts have commuted sentences in over half of all criminal cases against Russian veterans and active-duty servicemen due to military service in Ukraine. . . .

 

Republicans wearing partisan blinders, should expect to eventually be blindsided by a very harsh reality.
Appeasing imperialism and its aggressive wars of conquest leads to world war.

“Apologists of appeasement have argued that public opinion, whether on the British or the French side, was unprepared for war in 1938. This, as recent studies have shown, is debatable. British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain received 20,000 letters and telegrams thanking him for averting war at Munich. The delirious scenes of welcome to Chamberlain and French Prime Minister Édouard Daladier on their return bear witness to the preparedness of many to salute a peace that sacrificed Czechoslovakia. Yet sheer relief at not having to fight or endure the dangers and hardships of war, especially after it had appeared so close, must account for much of this enthusiasm.

When the statesmen returned, the full details of the Munich Agreement—with which they allowed Germany to take the territory of the Sudetenland from Czechoslovakia, in a failed attempt to avoid what would become World War II—were not yet known, and it looked as though they had extracted actual concessions out of Hitler and at least saved face.” (Emphasis mine)
TIME, HISTORY, MILITARY, What the British and the French Actually Thought About the Decision to Appease Hitler at Munich in 1938, BY P. E. CAQUET, SEPTEMBER 24, 2019 1:35 PM EDT.
https://time.com/5684506/munich-appeasement/

 

Appeasement has always been stupid. It is especially stupid for the RP to do the same stupid thing -- again.

“Majority Still Favors Supporting Ukraine in Reclaiming Territory
Fifty-five percent of Americans think the U.S. should continue to support Ukraine in reclaiming its territory, even if that requires prolonged involvement, rather than ending the conflict as quickly as possible, even if that means ceding territory to Russia (43%). These findings are unchanged from the previous readings in October. However, the percentage of Americans who now favor continuing the fight to win back Ukraine’s territory is lower than the 62% to 66% who preferred that approach between August 2022 and June 2023.”
GALLUP, POLITICS, More Americans Say U.S. Is Not Helping Ukraine Enough, BY MEGAN BRENAN, APRIL 12, 2024.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/643601/americans-say-not-helping-ukraine-enough.aspx

 

The Russians understand that Ukraine's development of a defense industrial base would represent a strategic defeat for Russia.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 12, 2024
Click here to read the full report with maps
Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged that Russia’s ongoing strike campaign against Ukrainian energy facilities aims in part to devastate the Ukrainian defense industry, confirming ISW’s ongoing assessment that Russian strikes against Ukrainian energy facilities aim to degrade Ukrainian defense industrial capacity.
• ISW continues to assess that the development of Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB) over time can allow Ukraine to sustain its defense against Russia and longer-term national security needs with significantly reduced foreign military assistance.
• Russian forces are domestically producing and fielding a new air-to-surface subsonic cruise missile against Ukraine designated the Kh-69 as part of continued efforts to improve strike packages and penetrate Ukraine’s degraded air defense.
• The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) claimed that it prevented a group of Central Asians from perpetrating a terrorist attack against a Russian military facility in occupied Ukraine with Ukraine’s help, likely as part of efforts to set information conditions to portray any future Ukrainian attack on legitimate Russian military targets in occupied Ukraine as “terrorist” attacks.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.
• Russia is reportedly sending about 2,400 Eastern Military District (EMD) military personnel currently in Russia to fight in Ukraine to make up for personnel losses at the front.
• Russian occupation officials continue to expand educational programs that aim to indoctrinate Ukrainian children and erase their Ukrainian identity. . . .

 

Russia under Putin has finally rotted down from top to bottom.

Ukraine war: Russian double-tap strikes hit civilians then rescuers too

BBC on MSN.com

|15 hours ago [April 14, 2024]
Russia has carried out this kind of repeat attack before. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said a strike on a building in the southern city of Odesa in March that killed 20 was a double-tap, and called it a "despicable act of cowardice". But Ukrainian officials say they have seen an increase in the use of such attacks.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...s-hit-civilians-then-rescuers-too/ar-BB1lzQxj

 

The Russians are still firing generals.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 14, 2024

click here to read the full report with maps
Key Takeaways:

• Israel’s success in defending against large-scale Iranian missile and drone strikes from Iranian territory on April 13 underscores the vulnerabilities that Ukrainian geography and the continued degradation of Ukraine’s air defense umbrella pose for Ukrainian efforts to defend against regular Russian missile and drone strikes.
• The exhaustion of US-provided air defenses resulting from delays in the resumption of US military assistance to Ukraine combined with improvements in Russian strike tactics have led to increasing effectiveness of the Russian strike campaign in Ukraine.
• Russia’s strike campaign against Ukraine demonstrates that even a limited number of successful ballistic or cruise missile strikes can cause significant and likely long-term damage to energy and other infrastructure, highlighting the need for an effective and well-provisioned air defense umbrella capable of a sustained high rate of interception.
• The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) is falsely equating the April 13 large-scale Iranian strikes targeting Israel with the April 1 Israeli strike targeting Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officials in Damascus, amplifying Iran’s “justification” for the April 13 strikes.
• Russian milbloggers largely responded to the April 13 Iranian strikes against Israel by suggesting that the increased threat of military escalation in the Middle East will likely draw Western, specifically US, attention and aid away from Ukraine.
• Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that the senior Russian military command aims to seize Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast by Russia’s Victory Day holiday on May 9.
• The Russian military’s ongoing restructuring of the Western Military District (WMD) into the Moscow and Leningrad military districts (MMD and LMD) is reportedly shifting areas of operational responsibility (AOR) for Russian force groupings in Ukraine.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has reportedly fired the commanders of a combined arms army and motorized rifle regiment operating in southern Ukraine likely for failing to recapture areas lost during the Ukrainian summer-fall 2023 counteroffensive.
• Ukrainian forces advanced south of Kreminna and southwest of Donetsk City and Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Chasiv Yar (west of Bakhmut) and Avdiivka. . . .

 

Putin's war now looks like a cruel master plan for the destruction of the Russian Federation that the CIA might well have crafted.

“To begin with, blinded by messianic delusions of Russia’s and his own historical mission, Russian President Vladimir Putin prized a dramatic show of Russian might over tedious diplomacy to halt Ukraine’s geopolitical reorientation towards the West. He was convinced the war would be short. He had nothing but disdain for Ukraine’s leaders. He thought Russian-speaking Ukrainians would greet his forces as liberators. He discounted the West’s resolve. And he grossly exaggerated his own military’s capabilities. He once boasted that he could take Kyiv in two weeks. His imagined blitzkrieg has now entered its third year. He bears the moral responsibility for launching a devastating, unnecessary war.

Washington, for its part, erroneously thought that it could deter Putin by exposing his plans through the calibrated disclosure of sensitive intelligence and rallying the West to threaten “crippling” sanctions should he invade. But it steadfastly refused to discuss the one issue that might have changed his calculations and given diplomacy a chance: Ukraine’s membership in NATO. It was a matter of principle, Washington declared. It would not compromise NATO’s “Open Door” policy — the “right” of any democratic European country to seek membership — or renege on NATO’s pledge that Ukraine would eventually join, even though it, and its NATO allies, had no intention of allowing Ukraine to join anytime soon.”
THE HILL, The futility of the war in Ukraine has become more apparent, BY THOMAS GRAHAM, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR - 04/15/24 9:00 AM ET.
https://thehill.com/opinion/4593856-the-futility-of-the-war-in-ukraine-has-become-more-apparent/

 

....which is probably bad news as it means they're evolving....

 

While the US dithers, the war continues.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 15, 2024

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian officials continue to warn that US security assistance is vital to Ukrainian forces’ ability to defend against current and future Russian offensive operations forecasted to begin in late spring and summer.
• A senior Estonian military official described intensified Russian offensive frontline operations and deep rear area strike campaigns as intended to degrade both Ukraine’s will to fight and Western unity.
• Russian forces continue to adapt their drone tactics along the frontline as part of an offense-defense arms race to mitigate Ukrainian technological adaptions to offset Russian materiel advantages along the frontline.
• Russian officials doubled down on efforts to amplify Iran’s “justification” for the April 13 large-scale Iranian strikes against Israel that falsely equates them with an April 1 Israeli strike targeting Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officials in Damascus.
• A Russian insider source claimed that Russian officials are preparing to redeploy some former Wagner Group elements serving in Africa Corps to Belgorod Oblast.
• Crimean occupation administration head Sergei Aksyonov passed a decree restricting migrant labor in occupied Crimea, undermining the Kremlin’s effort to mitigate labor shortages.
• Russian state media seized on Georgian protests against a proposed law similar to Russia’s “foreign agent” law, likely as part of Kremlin efforts to amplify political discord in Georgia.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Siversk (northeast of Bakhmut), Avdiivka, and west of Donetsk City on April 15.
• Russian prosecution rates of men who had fled compulsory military service have reportedly increased since fall 2022. . . .

 

Ukraine's ability to maintain its productive private sector economy while its military stops a massive foreign invasion force in its tracks is remarkable.

“Even before the Russian full-scale invasion, Ukrainian fintech proved that it is part of the world market. Back in the 2000s, the development of the country’s card infrastructure began. At first, we covered the country with POS terminals and ATMs, then there were European-level innovations—for example, SMS banking. In 2010, a fintech focused on convenience and service: better internet banking, appropriate e-commerce purchases, and utility payment aggregators. As a result, Ukraine became a world leader in the implementation of Apple Pay and Google Pay.”
“The second is the desire to forget quickly the Soviet bureaucracy and develop business freely. This is one of the incentives that pushed independent entrepreneurs in the late 1990s and early 2000s to build their own companies and focus on customer-first values.”
Why Ukrainian fintech is developing so quickly, and why that’s important for Europe
April 16, 20245 Oleksiy Ruban
https://emerging-europe.com/partner...o-quickly-and-why-thats-important-for-europe/

 

Cheap long range drones are becoming very hard to stop.

FORBES, Jam-Resistant American Radio Keeps Ukraine’s Long-Range Drones Flying, David Hambling, Senior Contributor, 4/17/24.
https://www.forbes.com › sites › davidhambling › 2024 › 04 › 17 › jam-resistant-american-radio-keeps-ukraines-long-range-drones-flying

Jam-Resistant American Radio Keeps Ukraine's Long-Range ... - Forbes
The Mesh Rider radio built by U.S. company Doodle Labs is a crucial component in Ukraine's battle to keep their drones operating against Russian electronic warfare.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidh...nes-long-range-drones-flying/?sh=282de6482f50

 

It's put up or shut up time for the US.
America’s Stark Choice in Ukraine and the Cost of Letting Russia Win
Apr 16, 2024 - ISW Press



The current US debate about providing additional military assistance to Ukraine is based in part on the assumption that the war will remain stalemated regardless of US actions. That assumption is false. The Russians are breaking out of positional warfare and beginning to restore maneuver to the battlefield because of the delays in the provision of US military assistance to Ukraine. Ukraine cannot hold the present lines now without the rapid resumption of US assistance, particularly air defense and artillery that only the US can provide rapidly and at scale.

 

The Russians are pressing their current advantage, but the Ukrainians have a long reach.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 16, 2024
Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that continued shortages in air defense systems and artillery are preventing Ukraine from effectively defending itself against Russian strikes and ground assaults.
• Zelensky signed a new mobilization law on April 16, codifying a difficult but critical decision in Ukraine’s efforts to stabilize its force generation apparatus and adequately prepare the Ukrainian fighting force both defensively and offensively.
• Russian forces in eastern Ukraine are using smaller groups to conduct assaults and are reportedly suffering from morale issues, but Russian attacks are unlikely to culminate in the near term despite these challenges because of Ukrainian materiel shortages.
• A Russian Storm-Z instructor argued that Russian forces should capitalize on Ukrainian disadvantages brought on by materiel shortages to increase Russian guided glide bomb strikes to support Russian ground operations.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to show support for Iranian aggression against Israel during a March 16 call with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi.
• People’s Republic of China (PRC) President and General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Xi Jinping met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on April 16 and proposed prerequisites for the end to the war in Ukraine in a manner that suggests that Xi is continuing to posture himself as a neutral mediator in the war despite increasing reports of China’s support for the Russian war effort.
• Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) recently destroyed a Russian Nebo-U long-range radar station in Bryansk Oblast.
• The Kremlin continues to centralize authority over Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov’s “Akhmat” Spetsnaz forces via the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
• Russian federal censor Roskomnadzor is considering banning TikTok in Russia.
• Russian forces made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City and in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on April 16.
• The Republic of Tatarstan is reportedly preparing a new youth employment program that would allow minors aged 14 and older to work at Russian defense industrial base (DIB) enterprises, likely as part of an ongoing effort to expand the Russian DIB.
• Russian occupation officials are using the education system, particularly history courses, to Russify Ukrainian children living in occupied areas. . . .

 

The important House vote is scheduled for 20 April.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 17, 2024

click here to read the full report
Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces struck a Russian military airfield in occupied Dzhankoi, Crimea, overnight on April 16 to 17.
• Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reportedly targeted Russian aviation assets in the Republic of Mordovia, the Republic of Tatarstan, and Samara Oblast on April 17.
• Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov officially confirmed on April 17 that Russian peacekeeping forces began their anticipated withdrawal from Nagorno-Karabakh, as Russian sources largely blamed Armenian leadership for Azerbaijan’s seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh amid Armenia’s continued efforts to distance itself from political and security relations with Russia.
• The Georgian parliament approved a bill in its first reading similar to Russia’s “foreign agents” law on April 17, which Russian state media seized on to further Kremlin efforts to amplify reports of political discord in Western and former Soviet states.
• US President Joe Biden warned that Russia and its partners pose an increasing threat to NATO and stressed that US security assistance to Ukraine can address the Russian threat.
• The US House of Representatives filed a supplemental appropriations bill on April 17 that would provide roughly $60 billion of assistance to Ukraine, and will reportedly vote on the measure on April 20.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.
• The Kremlin-controlled Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) is preparing a special training course for ROC clergy deployed to combat zones in Ukraine. . . . .

 

"Just In Time Inventory Management" is not the way to win wars.
https://www.score.org/resource/article/understanding-and-using-just-time-inventory-management

Germany urges dozens of allies to send air defence systems to Ukraine
The Financial Times
|18 hours ago [4/18/24]
Berlin launches global call to help protect cities, troops and infrastructure from Russia's 'murderous onslaught'
https://www.ft.com/content/6db9f905-2dc3-41fd-b57a-1d062a62cc69?shareType=nongift

 

For Republican politicians who may still not know what they are doing:

“Appeasement. It's a slippery slope."
"It means you want to work with the enemy. It means you'd rather join him than beat him.” Patrick Ness, The Ask and the Answer

 

The Ukrainians are preparing their defense.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 18, 2024

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov specified that the Russian offensive effort that Ukrainian officials have been forecasting will likely begin in June 2024.
• Budanov also stated on April 17 that Ukraine plans to counter future Russian offensive operations by continuing strikes against Russian military targets within Russia.
• Russian forces reportedly continue to intensify crypto-mobilization efforts ahead of the expected Russian summer 2024 offensive operation but will likely struggle to establish effective operational- and strategic-level reserves rapidly.
• Ukrainian officials clarified that the Ukrainian strike on a Russian military airfield in occupied Dzhankoi, Crimea overnight on April 16 to 17 caused significant damage to Russian air defense equipment.
• Russian milbloggers seized on a violent crime committed by a migrant in Moscow on April 18 to reiterate calls for further restrictions in Russian migration policies.
• German authorities detained two individuals suspected of aiding Russia in its ongoing efforts to sabotage NATO member states’ military infrastructure and logistics.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.
• Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s (RFE/RL) “Schemes” investigative project, citing Ukrainian intelligence, reported on April 17 that Russia’s defense industry is using US- and Japanese-made components in the navigation and communication systems of Russian Sukhoi fixed wing aircraft. . . . .

Ukrainian officials indicated that Ukrainian strikes continue to degrade the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s (BSF) ability to operate in the Black Sea. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukrainian intelligence reports indicate that Russia is moving its Kalibr missile-equipped ships from the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea following Ukrainian strikes.[55] Ukrainian Navy Spokesperson Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk stated that the BSF only has three out of six Kalibr-equipped submarines left in service and that submarines cannot operate in the northern Black Sea due to the shallow water.[56] . . . .

 

We shall see.

 

He decided he'd rather be Churchill than Chamberlain.